The dynamics and structure of consumer demand was considerably affected by population income structural changes, the decrease of real wages by 2.8% versus 2008 and trend for increase in the proportion of population with the monetary incomes below the minimum subsistence level.
In the 1st-3rd quarters of 2009 as compared with corresponding period of 2008, proportion of social payments went up, while proportion of labor remuneration (including hidden wages), incomes from entrepreneurial activity and incomes from property decreased.
Table STRUCTURE OF MONETARY INCOMES OF POPULATION IN 2008-2009, AS PERCENTAGE TO THE TOTAL 2008 Quarters Quarters year I II III IV I II III Monetary incomes – total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Incomes from entrepreneurial activity 10 10.2 9.6 10.2 9.9 10.2 9 9.Labor remuneration, including hidden wages 68.6 68.4 68.4 69 68.5 69.4 69.8 68.Social payments 12.8 13.3 12.7 12.4 13 14.7 14.5 15.Incomes from property 6.6 6.1 7.4 6.4 6.6 3.8 4.6 4.Other incomes 2 2 1.9 2 2 1.9 2.1 Source: Federal State Statistics Service The shortage of resources resulted in the fact that expenditures on final consumption in accounted for major part of the GDP – 74.7% versus 65.5% in 2008. During crisis implementation issues of social guarantees and liabilities were of primary importance. In order to maintain the living standard of population and social stability the share of expenses for public consumption increased up to 20.3% in 2009, exceeding by 3.0 percentage points the value compared with corresponding period of the previous year.
Table STRUCTURE OF GDP USE IN 2008-2009, AS BROKEN BY QUARTERS, AS PERCENTAGE TO THE TOTAL IN CURRENT PRICES 2008 quarters quarters year year I II III IV I II III IV GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Expenses for final consumption 65.5 67.5 64.2 61.5 68.8 74.7 81.5 78.0 70.4 71.of households 47.7 48.3 46.8 45.8 51.6 53.9 57.0 55.8 50.9 52.of state management 17.3 18.6 16.9 15.3 16.7 20.3 23.7 21.6 19.0 17.Gross accumulation 25.4 20.0 25.5 29.0 26.5 18.0 12.4 14.9 21.8 21.Gross accumulation of fixed 22.2 16.2 20.8 21.7 27.8 20.2 16.5 19.8 19.6 24.assets Changes in stocks of material 3.2 3.8 4.7 7.3 -1.3 -2.2 -4.1 -4.9 2.2 -2.liquid funds Net export 9.1 12.5 10.3 9.5 4.7 7.3 6.1 7.1 7.8 8.Source: Federal State Statistics Service Internal market support in 2009 was based on redistribution of incomes from enterprises to population. The share of labor remuneration in the GDP went up to 51.9% in 2009, exceeding by 4.6 percentage points corresponding value of 2008.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Table STRUCTURE OF FORMATION OF THE GDP BY SOURCES OF INCOMES IN 2008-2009, AS BROKEN BY QUARTERS, AS PERCENTAGE TO THE TOTAL, IN CURRENT PRICES 2008 quarters quarters year year I II III IV I II III IV GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Labor remuneration of employees (including hidden wages and 47.3 48.3 46.8 42.3 45.9 51.9 56.2 53.7 47.2 51.mixed incomes) Net taxes on production and 19.9 20.5 21.2 20.2 19.1 16.7 17.8 18.5 19.7 11.import Gross profit of the economy and 32.8 31.2 32.0 37.5 35.0 31.4 26.0 27.8 33.1 37.gross mixed incomes Source: Federal State Statistics Service Dynamics and structure of people’s incomes was considerably affected by negative signals coming from the labor market. Against the background of lower levels of wages and incomes of the population, the high level of unemployment remained. General unemployment growth against the background of the slow-down of economic dynamics rates has been observed since July 2008, and has strengthened considerably under the influence of financial and industrial crisis. General unemployment figures reached their peak level of 7084 thousand of individuals in February 2009, but starting with March it started to decrease. At the end of 2009 the total number of unemployed made 6355 thousand and increased by 31.7% versus 2008. The number of officially registered unemployed in 2009 made 2084 thousand individuals and exceeded 2008 volume by 48.7%.
RUSSIAN INDUSTRY IN JANUARY RUSSIAN INDUSTRY IN JANUARY S.Tsukhlo In January Russian industry continued its way out of the crisis. The dynamics of sales, estimations of the demand allowed enterprises to maintain the growth of the output, and the forecasts for the demand, supported by the portfolio of orders testifies that the massive hopes for the recovery. In January the industry has claimed for the first time that it will not proceed with resignations but will start hiring the employees.
Official Statistics of December According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the index of industrial production made 101.5% in November 2009 and 102.7% in December 2009 (versus November and December 2008, correspondingly). In December 2009 the growth made 105% versus November 2009. These official data have received different estimations, which has become a tradition: “the drop of the production at the end of the year has slowed down”, “Federal State Statistics Service has called off the “economic boom”, “rose hopes for the recovery have not been supported”. According to the calculations of the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting at the end of the year the recovery growth in the industry has ceased. Thus, the scantiness of the official statistics indices still complicates the understanding of the situation in the Russian industry.
Demand for Industrial Goods In January 2010 the demand for industrial goods upon exclusion of seasonality has stopped decreasing for the first time during the current crisis: the proportion of reports on the decrease of sales became equal to the proportion of reports on the growth (fig.
1). The improvement of the dynamics of the demand, however, as compared with the 4th quarter 2009, was negligible and is worth mentioning only because it is now in the neighborhood of zero. At the same time the initial data quite adequately reflected the all-Russian ten-day holidays, revealing before the exclusion of seasonality the decrease of the balance of responses by 8 points - down to normal level of January registered in 2002-2008. Thus, dynamics of the demand in January Fig. (2010) is comparable with the pre-crisis one.
This thesis is testified by the satisfaction with the volume of the demand as well. In January the proportion of the normal estimations went up by 10 points at once and reached 42% on the whole throughout the industry, which is the maximum of this figure for the crisis (fig. 2). In foodstuffs production 73% of enterprises are satisfied with the sales, in metallurgy – 56%, in chemistry industry – 49%. It seems that January turned out not to be as bad for the Russian industry as could be expected according to forecasts of NovemberDecember. Forecasts of demand were subject to most considerable positive changes during the current crisis: according to initial data the forecasts improved by 48 points (from -26 to +22), according to those upon Fig. RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES exclusion of seasonality – by 11 points (from +1 to +12). According to all sorts of data the figure reached the maximum of the crisis and testifies that there are massive hopes for the recovery in the Russian industry.
Stocks of Finished Goods Estimations of stocks of finished goods did not change in January, maintaining the level of excess, registered nearly all the second half of 2009 (fig. 3). However, the situation by branches is substantially different.
Whereas in the foodstuff production the shortage of goods there is a shortage of the reserves observed, in the industry of construction materials there is the biggest excess of reserves, the estimations in the light industry worsening sharply over the month. In the machinebuilding the balance of estimation of the stocks has improved by 10 points. At the same time the direct estimations of the dynamics of the physical volumes of stocks of the finished goods by enterprises testify that Fig. 3 the decrease of the amount of stocks continues.
Output of Goods In January 2010 the industrial production, according to the estimations of the enterprises, continued to grow (upon exclusion of the seasonality) with the same intensity. Starting with September 2009 the surveys registered comparatively acceptable and relatively stable growth of output in the industry.
According to the estimations of the producers themselves, the recession of the production stopped in July 2009. Initial data (before exclusion of seasonality) demonstrated certainly that in January the output contracted, but to the same extent as it happened in the similar months of 2002-2008 and was 2.5 times lower than in January 2009 (fig. 4). In other words, the dynamics of output started to become normal after the demand. In January at the level of branches of industry the decrease of the output (upon exclusion of seasonality) was observed only in the industry of construction materials, timber industry and light industry. In January the production plans of the enterprises in FebruaryMarch improved as compared with the plans registered in December by 52 points at once. The surveys have not registered the increase of optimism according to the initial data in 1992-2010 before. The exclusion of seasonality has considerably corrected the growth of this figure (up to 10 points), but the result was still remarkable (being below the maximum of the crisis by only 1 percentage point). The decrease of the output is planned only in the ferrous metallurgy and the industry of construction materials.
The growth of optimism in the plans for output has quite a determined basis in the industry. According to the data of the enterprises the New Year started with the active filling of the portfolio orders. The provision with the orders increased over the quarter from 4.9 to 7.2 months and returned to the pre-crisis level (6.7 in January 2006, 6.7 in 2007 and 7 months in 2008).
Fig. Prices of Enterprises The price policy of the enterprises at the beginning of 2010 was formed under the influence of the growth of the demand for the production made and traditional New Year’s increase of prices and tariffs. However both factors pushed up the real dynamics of prices and the producer’s pricing plans not as strongly as in the pre-crisis years. The modest figure of January 2009 has however been exceeded (fig. 5).
RUSSIAN INDUSTRY IN JANUARY In January 2010 the modest decrease of the prices in November-December was replaced by quite intensive growth. This has been the seconds attempt of producers to check its market price. The first, taking place in August-October, was not very successful. In January the growth of the sales prices was the crisis maximum and has all the chances for continuation – pricing plans of the enterprises reached maximum of the crisis as a result of three-month growth. Earlier (during the current crisis) the latter figure continued to grow during two months. The most intensive growth of the prices in January was registered in non-ferrous metallurgy, chemistry and machine-building. At the same time the industry of construction materials, timber industry, Fig. ferrous metallurgy and light industry refrained from their increase. In February-March the prices will increase in all the branches of industry except for the industry of construction materials and ferrous metallurgy, and the most intensive increase will be observed in chemistry, machine building and light industry.
Redundancies: Real Dynamics and Plans Intensity of redundancies in the industry in January was not different from that in December and was near the level registered during 9 months of the crisis.
The reduction of the number of staff occurred in all branches of industry in January with the exception for foodstuffs production. They were most intensive in the industry of construction materials, light industry and timber industry. The staff plans of enterprises were subject to the most considerable changes in January.
Over the month the balance of intentions turned into definitely positive (+7 balance points) out of sharply negative (-25 points) and reached the crisis maximum (fig. 6). Thus, the Russian industry for the first time during the current crisis declared the wish to refuse from the redundancies and transfer to the hiring of the employee. The most massive hiring of the additional Fig. employees can occur in foodstuffs production (+balanced points), light industry (+25) and chemistry (+10) branches.
Crediting of Industry In January banks softened a bit its crediting policy for the Russian industry: the proportion of the normal estimations of the available credits increased by 3 points and reached 57% (fig. 7). As a result the difference from the level of crisis bottom made already 40 points and there are still 23 points to reach the precrisis maximum. The priorities of the banks remained the same as before: metallurgy, foodstuffs production, chemistry industry. The average minimum rate for Fig. credits reduced down to 16.8% per annum in January after 17.4% in December. The credits for small-scale enterprises are suggested with 19% per annum as the best variant.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES FOREIGN TRADE N.Volovik, K.Resenkova In November 2009 the gradual recovery of the volumes of the Russian foreign trade continued, which was accounted for by the recovery from the recession of the majority of the developed countries.
Starting with January 1, 2010 in connection with the agreements between Russia, Belorussia and Kazakhstan coming into the effect some importers started to experience difficulties with the import of goods into the territory of the Russian Federation.
In January 2010 the International Monetary Fund reconsidered towards improvement the October forecast for the growth of the world economy in 2010 - from 3.25% to 4%, noticing, however that the recovery will be unstable and will require the measures of fiscal stimulation in the nearest future.
The formation of the foreign trade dynamics at the end of 2009 was accounted for by the improvement of the prospects for the development of the world economy. Russian foreign trade turnover calculated on the basis of the balance-of-payments methodology made USD 50.5 billion in November 2009. As compared with the previous month it went up by 1.8%, and as compared with November 2008 – it reduced by 3.3%.
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