At the end of December and in January, large companies still were active in borrowing through the bonds emissions, registering 4-7 on and more issues at a time. The number and total amount of registered issues have grown in comparison with the previous month. Thus, in the period from December 24, 2009 to January 25, 2010, 11 emitters have registered 38 bond issues for the total amount of USD 188.6 billion (for comparison, from November 25 to December 23 last year 14 emitters have registered 32 emissions amounting to RUR 128.5 billion). The largest share of the reported emissions were made by seven series of bonds of OAO “Russian Railways” for the total amount of RUR 100 billion, fifteen series of stock exchange bonds of OAO “The Fifth Power Generation Company of Wholesale Electricity Market” in the amount of RUR 51 billion, four series of stock exchange bonds of OAO “TMK” in the amount of RUR 30 billion2.
After the record indicators of primary bond market in December of the last year, at the beginning of the current year the volume of the new issues placement fell a dozen times. This is due to decreased activity of not only investors but also the emitters, typical in January of each year. Thus, in the period from December 24, 2009 to January 25, 2010 there were placed 7 issues totaling to RUR 8.5 billion. That has the minimum level over the last calendar year (for comparison, in the relevant period of preceding year there were placed 41 issues of bonds, denominated in national currency for the total amount of RUR 264.2 billion and one issue of bonds denominated in US dollars) (Fig. 7). During the period under review the largest bond issues were placed by LLC «INC» (one series of bonds worth RUR 3 billion) And OOO «Real-leasing Invest» (one series of bonds worth 2 RUR billion). This month was a period of placement of 25 exchange-traded bonds - six Effective yield of the seven emitters placed their issues under a simpliIndex IFX-Cbonds fied procedure.
Inthe period from December 24 to January 25 there was again a large number of issues, recognized invalid due to non-placement of any security. In this period, like in the preceding term, 0 the Federal Statistical Service for Financial Markets of Russia has recognized as invalid four issues of corporate bonds, offered for open placeSource: Cbonds data.
ment (against four issues in the period from November Fig. 6. Russian corporate securities index and average weighted to December 23 0f 2009)3.
yield dynamics 1 As per “ Finmarket”Information agency.
2 As per Rusbonds data 3 As per FSS of Russia.
Effective yield, % Index IFX-Cbonds 24.09.22.10.126.96.36.199.22.01.22.02.24.03.22.04.22.05.23.06.22.07.22.08.24.09.24.10.188.8.131.52.26.01.24.02.24.03.23.04.26.05.25.06.23.07.26.08.25.09.22.10.184.108.40.206.25.01.FINANCIAL MARKET Within December 24 to 280 Total emission January 25 emitters were Amount of placed issues supposed to redeem their bond issues totaling to RUR 10.2 billion. However, one emitter, OOO “Russian Investment Group” has announced a technical default on repayment of its bond loan, totaling to RUR 1.2 bln (against eight emitters announced a technical default on repayment of their bond loans, totaling to RUR 7.bln in preceding period).
In January 2010, five issues of corporate bonds re- 0 demption for the total amount of RUR 4.5 bln are expected1.
В период с 24 декабря по 25 января должны были по- Source: Rusbonds data гасить свои выпуски 9 эмиFig. 7. Corporate securities primary placement dynamics, denominated in тентов на общую сумму 10,national currency млрд руб. Однако один эмитент – ООО «Русская инвестиционная группа» – объявил технический дефолт по погашению своего облигационного займа на сумму 1,2 млрд руб. (за предыдущий период восемь эмитентов объявили технический дефолт на общую сумму 7,4 млрд руб.). At the same time one cannot speak about the situation improvement with the return of invested funds to owners of bonds yet, because originally planned for repayment the amount and the number of emissions made in the fourth quarter of the last year were considerably higher than at the beginning of this year. In February 2010, fifteen issues of corporate bonds redemption for the total amount of RUR 26.9 bln are expected2.
The issue of the emitters’ failure to perform their liabilities in regard to the bonds holders is still acute. Thus, from December 24 through January 25, the real default on bonds coupon yield redemption on 19 issues was announced by seventeen emitters (since November 25 through December 23 a real default on bonds coupon yield redemption was announced by fifteen emitters). Among them, four issuers managed to reach agreement with bondholders to restructure the debts. A real default on offer (bonds redemption) was announced by one emitter (against 3 emitters in the previous period)3. A real default on failure to repay the nominal value of the bond loans within the period under review was announced by nine emitters under 10 issues for the total amount of RUR 12.2 billion (against for the previous period – four emitters for the amount of RUR 5.6 billion); herewith, bond holders of only one issue agreed to restructure the debt.
1 As per Rusbonds data.
2 As per Rusbonds data.
3 Cbonds data Amount of placed bond issues Total volume of placed bond issues, billion rubles Jul.Jul.Jun.Jun.Jan.Apr.Sept.Jan.Apr.Sept.Jan.Feb.Feb.Oct.Mar.Oct.Mar.Oct.Aug.Aug.Nov.Dec.May.Nov.Dec.May.Nov.Dec.RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES REAL ECONOMY SECTOR:
TRENDS AND FACTORS O.Izryadnova It was the contraction of the internal market under the influence of the simultaneous contraction of the investment and consumer demand that became one of the main trends of 2009. In 2009 the decrease of the GDP made 7.9%, the investments in fix assets reducing by 17.0%, and the final consumption – by 5.4%. The situation at the labor market remains complicated. The average number of the employed in the economy reduced by 2.4% versus 2008, the level of the general unemployment increasing up to 8.4% (6.4% a year ago), and the level of officially registered unemployment – up to 2.1% (1.4% in 2008).
The recovery of the net export dynamics had a positive effect on the macroeconomic situation. In 2009 the macroeconomic situation was characterized by highly volatile dynamics of the main indices throughout the year. The inertial decrease registered at the beginning of 2009 was accounted for by general unfavorable development in the 4th quarter 2008 and weakened substantially in the second half of the year against the background of the gradual recovery of global markets of raw materials and adaptation of financing and crediting institutes to the crisis. Upon the reduction of the GDP by 10.4% in the 1st half of 2009 and by 8.95 in the 3rd quarter, in the 4th quarter the recession has slowed down to 4.7% versus corresponding periods of the previous year. On the whole, as a result of 2009 the GDP is estimated to be at the level of 92.1% versus the figure of the previous year.
Table INDICES OF MAIN MACROECONOMIC FIGURES IN 2008–2009, AS PERCENTAGE OF THE CORRESPONDING YEAR 2008 Quarters Quarters year year 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 Gross Domestic Product 105.6 108.7 107.5 106.0 101.2 92.1 90.2 89.1 91.9 98.Investments in fixed assets 109.8 123.6 117.4 111.7 97.7 83.0 84.4 79.0 80.9 89.Commissioning of residential floor 105.3 108.1 99.1 105.7 105.1 93.3 102.4 97.2 98.9 85.area Volume of industrial products 102.1 106.2 105.5 104.7 93.9 89.2 85.7 86.4 89.0 97.Minerals extraction 100.2 100.7 100.3 100.6 99.0 98.8 96.2 96.9 97.8 103.Processing industries 103.2 108.7 108.1 106.4 92.3 84.0 79.2 78.4 85.0 93.Electricity, gas and water 101.4 105.6 102.1 104.3 94.6 95.2 94.9 93.7 89.7 100.production and distribution Agricultural goods production 110.8 105.5 106.9 113.0 115.6 101.2 102.3 100.9 98.0 106.Freight turnover 100.7 105.1 102.9 101.4 93.6 89.8 83.7 81.3 93.0 101.Retail trade turnover 113.5 117.2 114.8 114.9 108.6 94.5 99.9 94.4 90.8 93.Paid services rendered to 104.9 107.7 105.6 105.3 102.0 95.7 99.1 95.3 93.3 – population Foreign trade turnover 132.2 148.8 147.9 149.3 95.4 65.0 56.2 55.5 60.0 91.Export 133.1 153.3 151.3 152.8 89.5 64.3 52.1 53.9 60.3 97.Import 130.6 140.8 143.0 142.1 105.3 66.0 63.7 58.2 595 83.Real disposable monetary incomes 102.7 107.8 106.0 106.6 94.2 101.9 100.4 103.1 97.1 107.Real wages 109.7 113.4 112.5 112.2 102.5 97.2 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.Real amount of accrued pensions 118.1 119.0 113.7 122.7 116.9 106.1 113.3 109.Average annual number of 100.6 100.8 101.2 100.7 99.6 97.6 97.7 97.1 97.9 98.employed in the economy Total number of the unemployed 104.4 96.5 94.2 105.6 123.7 131.7 134.8 152.1 132.2 112.Number of officially registered 89.7 89.7 89.3 88.9 91.1 148.9 126.5 157.4 163.0 152.unemployed Source: Federal State Statistics Service REAL ECONOMY SECTOR: TRENDS AND FACTORS 20,Peculiar features of the economic development 15,in 2009 were defined by 10,simultaneous contraction 5,of the internal and external demand under the influence 0,of the investment contraction, -5,production and consumer -10,demand in 2009 the internal -15,market according to the preliminary estimation went -20,down by 15.1%, and the -25,external demand – by 9.5%.
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Against the background of gradual increase of world 2007 2008 market for hydrocarbons starting with 2nd quarter internal demand external demand (export) resources 2009 as compared with corresponding period of the pre- Source: Federal State Statistics Service vious year, the slow-down of Fig. 1. Changes in GDP Dynamics as Broken by Components of Internal and export rates decrease was External Demand in 2007-2009, as percentage to corresponding quarter of observed, and versus the the previous year preceding quarter 2009 export dynamics became positive. The formation of this trend had a positive effect on the change of production dynamics. Starting with the 2nd quarter 2009 the slow-down of the recession of the internal production was observed mainly due to the output of the export-oriented goods on the extraction of fuel and energy commodities, and starting with the 3rd quarter the same applied to processing industries. In the 4th quarter 2009 the volume of industrial production went down by 2.6% versus the 4th quarter 2008. There was a growth of production by 3.9% observed in minerals extraction, and by 0.4% - in electricity, gas and water production and distribution. As a result, minerals extraction decline made 1.2%, of the fossil fuels extraction – 0.6%, minerals extraction – 6.2%.
The dynamics of the internal market starting with the 4th quarter 2008 was formed simultaneously with the drop in the production of domestic goods of intermediate and final consumption and import.
In processing industries despite gradual slackening in the production output contraction rates during the year, the crisis had the most destroying effect and the output made 84.0% of the previous year level. Under the influence of the investment contraction in fixed assets by 17.0% and the workload in construction by 16.0% versus 2008, production of the investment goods dropped nearly by one third: the construction materials production made 75.2%, production of machinery and equipment – 71.6%, transport vehicles production – 62.0% of 2008 level. The fall in demand for investment goods affected the whole complex of adjacent production: metallurgy, timber and chemistry complex.
It should be noted that in the environment of the global financial crisis the deficit of liquid funds required to purchase raw materials, high cost of credit resources strengthened negative effects on functioning of domestic production of consumer goods as well as on dynamics of the retail trade turnover.
Besides, absolute decrease in the volume of output of goods defined contraction of demand for the services of natural monopolies. Electricity, gas and water production and distribution dropped by 4.8%, and the freight transportation – by 10.2% versus 2008.
It should be noted that since anticipated import growth versus domestic production which was characteristic of economic dynamics in 2006-2008 and which was accompanied by decrease in the share of domestic resources production, the dramatic drop of import in 2009 determined structural changes in the domestic market resources. As a result of contraction and changes in consumer demand, domestic producers’ role at the global market increased. The proportion of import in retail RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES -17,other industries 4,-transport vehicles and equipment production 9,electric, electronic and optical equipment -31,-7,production -28,machinery and equipment production -13,metallurgy production and finished goods -0,-24,non-metal mineral products production -0,-12,rubber and plastic goods production 12,-5,chemistry production -4,2-0,coke and oil products production 2,-12,pulp and paper industry 0,timber processing and production of wooden goods -17,1,-leather, leather goods and footwear production 1,-15,textile and sewing industry 1,-0,foodstuff production 1,-processing industries 3,-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 2008 Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 2. Growth Rates by Kinds of Activities in Processing Industry in 2008-2009, as Percentage to the Preceding Year trade increased to 41% at the domestic market versus 47% in the corresponding period of the previous year. At the same time, in 2009 there were unfavorable shifts in the structure of imports, sharp drop in imports’ volume taking place against the background of relative refocusing on imports of consumer goods and of intermediate demand type.
Table PROPORTION OF CONSUMER, INTERMEDIATE AND INVESTMENT GOODS IN TOTAL VOLUME OF IMPORT INTO THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (CALCULATED BY THE BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT METHODOLOGY), AS PERCENTAGE TO THE TOTAL Goods consumer investment intermediate total 1st quarter 45.0 22.6 32.4 2nd quarter 41.3 23.9 34.8 3rd quarter 43.6 24.2 32.2 4th quarter 37.8 24.4 37.8 Year 41.8 23.8 34.4 1st quarter 46.8 18.6 34.9 2nd quarter 44.0 18.1 38.4 3rd quarter 43.8 19.7 36.6 Source: Federal State Statistics Service In 2009 formation of trend of consumers’ demand decline became one of the main issues. In the retail trade turnover went down by 5.5%, that of foodstuffs – by 2.5%, of non-food products – by 8.3%. The volume of paid services rendered to the population decreased to 95.7% of 2008 level.
REAL ECONOMY SECTOR: TRENDS AND FACTORS Consumer’s inflation since the beginning of current year made 8.8% versus 13.3% in 2008. At the same time, the price index for foodstuffs made 106.1% against 116.5% in 2008, and for non-food products – 109.7% versus 108.0% a year ago.
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