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and (or) located therein). The undisputed achievement, very important for RF citizens, is that RF servicemen (according to the assurances given by high The RF Presidents considerations concerning the sequence of in- rank officers) are no longer taking part in combat actions in the troduction of the new system of manning are formulated differently hot spots. However, some of the mass media affirm that, accordthan in his 2003 Message: I should also like to note that the NCO ing to the servicemen themselves, this practice still survives. Morecomponent of our Armed Forces will be switched over to the profes- over, the legal substantiation for such practice has not been sional basis at priority rates abolished.

In fact, the NCO component of the Armed Forces was not switched over to the contractual system of manning at priority rates. Such a switchover (for all military units) is now included in the new FTP 3) the creation of appropriate conditions for the first contracts to be Although formal conditions have indeed been created, they are concluded by citizens being enlisted for military service under con- totally unattractive.

tracts in the military positions which should be filled by soldiers, As a result, by the end of the FTPs period, it had become probsailors, sergeants, and petty officers in the afore-said formations and lematic to induce a serviceman not only to conclude a first conmilitary units tract, but also to prolong it (arrange the conclusion of a second contract) 4) the increase of the number of servicemen enlisted for military The increase of the number of these servicemen has been adservice under contracts in these positions from 22,1 thousand to justed downwards without reducing the expenditures on the 138,722 thousand; FTP; on the contrary, these expenditures have been increased.

in the initial version to 147,578 At the same time, contractees enlisted for military service in the units not included in the category of permanent readiness have not received even the tiny increment to money allowance which was introduced for the units of permanent readiness. As a result, the growing number of contractees in the units of permanent readiness was accompanied by an outflow of contractees from other military units, which means that the number of citizens who would be drafted after the year 2007 have reduced to a lesser degree (by almost 20 thousand) than it was expected at the time of substantiating the FTP 5) the reduction of societys dissatisfaction with the existing system Owing to these circumstances, societys dissatisfaction will not be of manning the RF Armed Forces and other troops, military forma- diminished, contrary to expectations. Instead, it will become even tions and organs, and with these servicemen being dispatched for greater, because of the cancellation of deferments, primarily for military service in the hot spots young fathers and graduates of higher educational establishments.

Besides, this dissatisfaction will grow as a result of the already appearing upward trends in the size of bribes and in the price of other services in the sphere of illegal draft evasion. Officers not serving in the units of permanent readiness are now also dissatisfied even more, because the level of their money allowance has become relatively lower 6) the creation of preconditions for reducing, from the year 2008, As a result of the FTP having been implemented in such a manner, the term of compulsory military service to one year the preconditions which appeared so promising to the developers of the FTP will, in effect, produce only slight improvements, while the growth of dissatisfaction caused by the cancellation of deferrals can produce an opposite effect, in the form of proposals to return to the two year term of service, without reintroducing the deferrals RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks A more detailed quantitative analysis of the FTPs results can be performed on the basis of the data presented in Table 27, which contains the FTPs target indicators and indices of effectiveness. This table was added to the initial text of the FTP in accordance with the RF Governments Decree, of 07. 09. 2006, No. 549, in connection with the switchover to the principles of performance-based budgeting (PBB).

Table The Target Indicators and the Indices of Effectiveness of the Program Financ- Including ing of 20042007, Comments on the results of Indicator federal total FTP 2004 2005 2006 executive bodies 1. The number of ser- Ministry 125,359 18,215 40,842 24,405 41,897 In the interests of society, vicemen enlisted for of De- where the desire to minimize military service under fense the scope of the draft and the contracts in the military economic costs shouldered by Ministry 9,729 3,880 3,881 992 units being switched the families and the civil of over to the new system economy of the country is Internal of manning rather widespread, this indiAffairs cator should have been augFSB 3,634 990 2,mented by stating the number of servicemen enlisted for military service under conTotal 138,722 22,095 44,723 26,387 45,tracts and those drafted to the ranks 2. Number of places for Ministry 115,636 22,004 27,267 26,390 45,517 From the point of view of housing servicemen of De- citizens and society, it is no enlisted for military fense less important to know the service under contracts number of servicemen, espein hostels with housing Ministry 9,764 2,048 2,582 3,871 1,263 cially of those with families, cells of simplified type of who are not provided with Internal housing, and to be informed Affairs on the methods and the timeFSB 1,180 660 520 lines for their housing problems to be solved Total 126,580 24,052 29,849 30,921 41,3. Number of places Ministry 25,478 502 2,562 4,377 18,037 In the interests of society it reserved for training of De- would be no less important to servicemen enlisted for fense know that all the servicemen military service under (both drafted and enlisted for contracts military service under conMinistry 860 763 tracts) are actually provided, of at the places of their service, Internal with adequate facilities for Affairs combat training and for the FSB 571 200 fulfillment of their duties, and that all the prescribed safety Total 26,909 502 2,562 5,340 18,measures are duly observed in the process From the table it follows that there are no indices of effectiveness as such. At the same time, there indeed exist certain methods for assessing the combat ability of armed forces as an indicator of the FTPs military effectiveness119.

If one makes use of these methods, it would become clear that the fighting efficiency of military units of permanent readiness grows in parallel with its decline in all the other military Tsymbal V., Kardashevskii N. Mnogourovnevyi analiz problem prizyva na voennuiu sluzhbu v Rossii ( A multi-level analysis of the problems related to military draft in Russia) // Voprosy Ekonomiki (Issues of Economics). 2006. No. 1. Pp.7085.

Section Institutional Problems units, because they have already been remanned with citizens drafted not for 2 years but for 1.5 year, and from the year 2008 onward they will be remanned with those drafted for 1 year.

The fighting efficiency of this category of regular forces will diminish, due to the insufficient level of training received by the servicemen, as well as the absence of incentives to serve efficiently, to master modern weaponry and to take care of it. It is estimated120 that the fighting efficiency of the RF contingent of privates and noncommissioned officers as a whole will also decrease.

Thus, the implementation of the FTP appears to be distorted not only with regard to the needs of society and its citizens, but also to the military-political guidelines formulated by the President. The lowering (by comparison with the plan) of the number of contractees, whereas the total number of positions which should be filled by privates and NCOs remains unchanged, will lead to an increase in the number of persons being drafted, while the simultaneously introduced cancellation of deferrals will increase the number of citizens who are eager to pay the ransom and have the means to do this, because from now on the persons to be drafted will be, in the main, graduates of higher educational establishments who have acquired professions in demand on the labor market. Such a completion of the FTP will be profitable only to corrupt officials.

As regards the other aspects of the military personnel policy, several acts aimed at actually improving the situation were adopted last year. The RF Presidents Edict No. 1495, of 10.

November 2007, has approved and put into force the new standard regulations of the RF Armed Forces: the Disciplinary Regulations; the Routine Duty Regulations; and the Garrison and Guard Duty Regulations. The following decisions were adopted: on accelerating the increase, in 2008, of the money allowance of servicemen; on repaying the arrears, dating back to 1995, to military pensioners; and on the cancellation of the drafting to officers positions of graduates of higher educational establishments with military chairs. There are some evident successes in the provision of housing to those servicemen who have received the right to the ownership of housing, and to those who are in need of service housing.

However, so far as the contingent of privates and sergeants is concerned, the planned increase of their pay will not raise their money allowance above the average national wage level, and therefore will not enhance the attractiveness of military service under contracts. The new additional payments introduced by the Minister of Defenses Order, of 01. 11. 2007, No. will merely increase the money allowance of servicemen who serve in the central apparatus of the Ministry of Defense, and not of those who are in the greatest need of this.

5. 5. 2. The Provision of Technical Equipment and the Ensuring of Functioning of the RF Military Organization Russias arms policy was expressed in the classified State Weapons Program (SWP) for the period until the year 2015.

According to the unclassified materials of the year 2007, one could only surmise that the implementation of the Program is snagged by the already well-known problems: the higher is the degree of monopolization (vertical integration being fraught precisely with this), and the Vorobev E., Tsymbal V. Sistema komplektovaniia voennoi organizatsii gosudarstva (The system of manning the military establishment of a State) // Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia (The world economy and international relations). 2007. No. 3. Pp. 8593.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks weaker is competition, the more costly is production. The system of orders for weapons and for war and special equipment (WWSE), as well as the operation of enterprises in the defenseindustrial complex have offered numerous examples in proof of this rule. Here are some of them. During the past three years, the cost of the strategic ballistic missile (BM) Topol M increased more than two-fold, or well above the general level of inflation. Therefore, the rise in expenses on purchasing the BM will not increase the volumes of purchases. The actual rate of innovating the land-based offensive strategic means will remain at the same level of 7 missile complexes per year, which does not correspond to the existing agreements with the USA concerning the levels of strategic weapons. The transmission of the order for the development of the sea-based BM Bulava to the traditional developer of land-based BMs resulted not in the promised economy of the funds (due to unification), but in their being overspent, and in a failure to timely commission new naval missile-carriers.

The second military-economic thesis, repeatedly mentioned in the programs of modernization of the DIC, that the DIC is the locomotive that will virtually haul the kindred sectors of civilian machine-building to the world level of high technologies, is by no means absolutely correct, either. For this locomotive to be operable, it would be necessary for the rules of competition to be observed and for independent civil control to be implemented; also, the thesis needs a scientific substantiation.

In conclusion of this sub-section, we should like to note that the problems of military production development have been aggravated by the deficiencies of military personnel policy, referred to in the previous sub-section. At a special conference, which took place under the chairmanship of First Vice-Premier D. Medvedev, Head of the State Corporation Russian Technologies S. Chemezov presented a very grim picture of Russias defense industry.

According to him, the rise in sales of Russian weapons on the external market (by the results of 2007 8 billion USD), and in sales within the framework of state defense order, has revealed one of the most acute problems the lack of regular work force. Today, the average age of a worker is 45 years, while that of a highly qualified worker 53 years. Despite having enormous funds at their disposal, enterprises simply cannot cope, in a timely and adequate manner, with the tasks assigned to them. For example, the Severodvinsk Machine-Building Enterprise has failed to fulfill Indias order for the re-equipment of the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov. The reason was trivial the plant did not have enough welders.

In order to improve the situation, it is suggested that the system of vocational training schools and specialized secondary schools should be resurrected under the aegis of the State;

besides, incentives should be created for graduates of technological higher educational establishments to go to work, at the DICs enterprises. Their attractiveness could be achieved, for example, by the provision of these graduates with housing by the employer. But there are other suggestions as well: either to restore the deferral for DICs workers, or to equate work at these enterprises with alternative civilian service (ACS). The State Duma of the new convocation will consider the corresponding draft law as early as spring 2008121.

121 Litovkin D. Opiat tebe broniu daet rodnoi zavod Kompressor! Kvalifitsirovvanykh rabochikh budut osvobozhdat ot armii (And once again our dear plant Compressor gives you a draft deferral! Skilled workers will be exempted from military service) // Izvestiia. 12 July 2007.

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