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However, in February 2003, the journal Voennaia Mysl (Military Thought) published an article by the head of the General Staffs GOMU, where the guidelines set forth by the RF President were clarified. It was no longer considered necessary that the FTP should be extended to military units on continuous alert. And in general, the only thing to expect was a systematic increase in the numbers of servicemen enlisted for military service under contracts in the military units of permanent readiness, and in the future in the other military units and in the military positions which determine their combat readiness (primarily in the NCO positions). It is planned that the rest of the military positions of soldiers, sailors, sergeants, and petty officers should be filled by servicemen drafted to military service. In other words, the General was sure that the regular armed forces should continue to be staffed by both the volunteers serving under contracts and the draftees. And that the draft would not be abolished in the foreseeable future. At the same time, the author of the article offers no answer to the question as to which positions do not determine the combat readiness of the troops, thus being secondary in importance, and if they are really secondary in importance, then why should there be any servicemen to occupy them.

Before long, in the spring of 2003, the President came up with a somewhat modified vision of the forthcoming transformations in the system of staffing the RF military establishment:

In accordance with the approved plans, we will continue to form professionally based units of permanent readiness in the land and airborne forces, and in the marines. This work should be completed in 2007. Also, military service will be based on the principles of professionalism in the internal service troops and the frontier troops. In plain and clear words it means the following (apart from other things, but this is the major conclusion): only welltrained and professional units will be employed in the hot spots and local conflicts, if Russia God forbid will ever have to answer these challenges. I would also like to point it out that it is the sergeant cadre of our Armed Forces (AF) that will be most urgently transferred to the professional basis. From the year 2008 onwards, the duration of compulsory military service will be reduced to one year. During the first half-year, the draftees will be mastering their military professions at the units. After this, they will be offered an option either to serve for half a year in line troops or to be transferred to professional service under contract. Those who have served under contract for three years will be entitled to a number of preferences including the guaranteed right to higher education at the States expense.

On 25 August 2003, the program under the title The switchover of a number of formations and military units to the system of manning by servicemen enlisted for military service under contracts was approved, for the years 20042007, by the RF Governments resolution.

The Ministry of Defense, which had been appointed state customer and coordinator of the Program, was instructed to submit, in the 4th Quarter of 2003, a draft deferral law setting the duration of compulsory military service at one year.

Section Institutional Problems Those public figures who had taken part in substantiating the FTP and resisted all attempts to emasculate it were prevented from handling the matter at the stage of the Programs implementation under the pretext of secrecy. Control over the implementation of the Program was entrusted to the Ministry of Defense. Thus, this agency plans all the FTP-related measures, implements them, and controls its own activities.

The analysis of the FTPs tasks and goals, as they were initially formulated, and, more importantly, the results of its implementation, is summarized below in Table 25. In the lefthand column of the Table we present the major provisions of the FTP taken from the final version of the main document, and also some comments made by RF top officials so as to clarify the idea of military reform, while the right-hand column contains the assessments obtained at the IET on the basis of the published data.

Table Assessment of the Results of Implementation of the Federal Target Program Assessment of initially formulated FTPs tasks and goals, Demands of RF President and Government, as presented and of results of its implementation as of December 2007.

in FTP; official statements of RF high officials Comments Goals of the Program: When formulated this way, the goals of the FTP take into account - to ensure the transition to a new system, whereby the military only the requirements of the RF military establishment despite the positions filled by soldiers, sailors, sergeants, and petty officers directives of the Commander in Chief. The socially important goals will be staffed by servicemen enlisted for military service under (the reduction in the general number of citizens being drafted and in contracts, and the duration of compulsory military service, and most importantly, - to improve the combat readiness of the RF Armed Forces mili- the task of changing the aim of such service to simply training a tary formations and units of permanent readiness, and of the mili- person in a military occupation specialty; the improvement of conditary units of frontier troops and of the RF Ministry of Internal tions of compulsory military service and contracts, including the Affairs internal service troops. suppression of acts of harassment among servicemen and violations These formulations of the goals presented in the FTP should be of human rights) were not included in the FTP. Therefore, there was considered in the light of the RF Presidents preliminary instruc- no intention to achieve these goals. The results are apparent and tions. In particular, one should take into account the following could not be different.

provisions: Of all the military political goals formulated in the FTP, One of the unquestionable priorities should be the continuation of the first goal has not been achieved in full measure, both with regard military reform and the transition to a professional army, with the to the initially specified numbers of contractees simultaneous reduction of the duration of compulsory military and (even) with regard to their later revised and significantly reservice. duced numbers.

The reform is necessary for society, but first of all for the army The second goal has been achieved only fragmentarily:

itself. in the Frontier Service of the FSB, the quotas were exceeded (the In accordance with the approved plans, we will continue the draft was completely abandoned), while in the Internal-Service formation, on a professional basis, of units of permanent readiness Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs the goals were achieved to in the land and airborne forces and in the marines. This work must a large measure. The major failure in implementing the FTP in full be completed in the year 2007. Apart from this, service in internal- was observed in the units and formations of the RF Armed Forces.

service and frontier troops will also be based on the principles of Most successfully the FTP was implemented in the units stationed in professionalism. the North Caucasian Military District.

In the Land Forces, 60 formations and units, with the overall Some of the Presidents instructions were further developed by the strength of 100 thousand, were completely switched over to service RF Minister of Defense. In his interview to the newspaper Kras- under contracts. Although not mentioned in the FTP, submarine naia Zvezda [The Red Star] as of 17. 09. 2004, S. Ivanov said crews of the Navy were also made to serve under contracts.

the following: A partial switchover of the Armed Forces to a While considering the improvement of the combat efficiency of the contractual basis is not a political declaration and not the goal of RF military establishments personnel to represent the achievement development of Russias Armed Forces. It is one of the avenues to of the main military goal as expected by the Minister of Defense, it increasing the combat efficiency of Russias Armed Forces should be pointed out that this goal, as demonstrated by the esti mates, has been achieved only with respect to the military units of permanent readiness; as regards Russias Armed Forces on the whole, it has not been achieved by the end of 2007, and after the year 2008, their overall combat efficiency may even decline RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Major tasks of the Program: The formulated tasks of the FTP correspond to its goals, which - to ensure the transition to a professional army based on the prin- means that they are practically unrelated to the concerns expressed ciple that the military positions filled by soldiers, sailors, ser- by the citizens and society, although the FTPs certificate, when geants, and petty officers should be held by servicemen enlisted specifying the reason for introducing the Program, has clearly stated for military service under contracts; that it is motivated by the military-political, economic, and social - to carry out the stage-by-stage transition of these formations and importance and the range of the tasks being solved by the Armed military units to a system when the military positions filled by Forces and other troops, military formations and organs.

soldiers, sailors, sergeants, and petty officers are held by service- As regards the time schedule of the military establishments switchmen enlisted for military service under contracts in accordance over to the new system of manning, it should be noted that the reawith the time schedule (Annex No. 1, classified); son for its being classified is unclear, because when citizens were - to ensure the corresponding adjustment of the system for the being attracted to volunteer military service under contracts, they training and accumulation of mobilization human resources; unavoidably had to be informed on the names and addresses of - to ensure the improvement of combat readiness of the afore-said military units and formations by various means, including the mass formations and military units by heightening the level of military media. Thus, the whole list of military units of permanent readiness, training and professional capabilities of the servicemen enlisted as well as the places of their stationing and the time table for their for military service under contracts. switchover to the contractual system have become known to the RF citizens being invited to serve under contracts.

In his interviews to the newspaper Krasnaia Zvezda of 6. No- Secondly, in the course of implementing the FTP, the federal auvember 2004 and 17 November 2004, Head of the General Staff thorities with troops at their disposal have been granted the right to Iu. Baluevskii stated that by the end of 2007, the proportion of introduce adjustments into the time schedule.

contractees holding the military positions to be filled by sergeants and soldiers will reach 50%, and, as a result, the RF Armed Nowadays, Minister of Defense A. Serdiukov states in his report Forces will obtain a rational system of mixed manning concerning the results of the Ministrys activity in 2007 that the proportion of persons enlisted for military service under contracts in the positions reserved for privates and NCOs will reach 44%. And some top military commanders put to doubt the achievability of even this level of manning. This means that the system of manning which exists in our country is not rational, according to Baluevskiis definition. A similar conclusion could also be made on the basis of our calculations of indices of regular forces and on the ratio of their numbers and the size of mobilization resources Major measures of the Program: A stable system of manning has failed to materialize. Evidence for The Programs measures, designed to create the conditions en- this is the failure to abide by the time schedule, and the facts of suring a stable functioning of the system of manning the coercion to conclude contracts and of corruption at military registraArmed Forces and other troops and military bodies by servicemen tion and enlistment offices, which forced the Minister of Defense to enlisted for military service under contracts, include: issue, in 2006, a corresponding anti-corruption order. However, according to the Office of Public Prosecutor, in the course of nearly - scientific backing for the Program; one and a half year since this memorable date the situation has not - the improvement of the normative-legal base of military service notably changed to the better.

under contract with regard to servicemen, in the military units As regards scientific backing for the Program, it can only be said being switched over to the new system of manning, who are hold- that expenditures under this item did go up (when the FTP was ing military positions to be filled by soldiers and sergeants; repeatedly adjusted), while the results, according to non- classified sources of information, including the military-theoretical journal Voennaia Mysl [Military Thought] remained modest at best. If - the resolution of the organizational issues concerning the transi- the results of this research are classified, the reasons for this should tion to the new system of manning whereby the military positions be clarified, because the case in point is a socially important reform.

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