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Pechatnikov, VTB-24s Director for Mortgage Loans, believes that the 2008 growth of the market for mortgage loans should make up not less than 80%, while Mr. V. Gasyak, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Home Credit bank trusts it should be not les than 50%103. A survey conducted by Romir holding found that 3% of respondents were keen to seek a mortgage loan over next two years, while another 2.5% of them expressed this desire, but have not decided for sure as yet. So, the potential demand for mortgage loans is estimated at the level of 1.6 Rossiysly statistichesky ezhegodnik. 2007: Stat.sb/Rosstat. M., 2007, p. 219.

The announced rates, as a rule, do not contain additional costs and commission fees.

Glan I. Nespetaya pesnya Minregiona. In: Kvartirny ryad, 410 Oct. 2007, No. 40 (663), p. 10.

Domnin S. Ne tak strashen chert. In: Kvartirny ryad, 2026 Dec. 2007, No. 51 (674), p. 1.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 2.8 m pcs., while in 2007 alone banks disbursed just slightly over 400,000 mortgage loans104.

Their estimated aggregate volume was some Rb. 538 bn (vs. 56 bn in 2005 and 263 bn in 2006105).

However, another view on the problem is cited more often, namely, the mortgage interest rate fails to help secure accessibility of housing, while mortgage formed one of the factors that contributed to the price rise for it. Housing prices can be to a far greater extent influenced by subsidies, stimulation of developers, lower costs for access to the engineering infrastructure, and, of course, the volume of market offer. There arises the problem of designing alternative to the classical mortgage mechanisms that would ensure access to housing, such as the social lease and saving-and-loan cooperatives and banks.

In contrast to the past years, the law that regulates the housing market did not see any novelties comparable, in terms of their effect, with Federal Act No. 214-FZ of December 30, 2004 On participation in the shared construction of apartment houses and other real estate objects, though, naturally, there were individual amendments to the Urban Development Code, legislation on mortgage, registration of property rights, etc.

The notorious investors honoring their obligations before private investors is no longer in the center of attention, as new challenges arose. According to the Moscow Town Hall, there were 3,371 deceived private investors in the city. Authorities expressed their intention to provide citizens suffered from the construction pyramids with apartments as early as in 2008, providing those who had invested in several apartments would be granted with just one106.

The federal center did not do anything in this respect at all. Certain hopes to overcome negative effects from the Act on shared construction are laid upon Act No. 315-FZ of December 1, 2007 On self-regulating organizations, albeit it is going to take a lot of time to restore confidence in such forms of investing.

As far as the regional aspect in house building is concerned, it should be emphasized that nearly all the regions reported greater volumes of placement of new housing in operation, except for Ivanovo and Murmansk oblasts, Chechnya, Kamchatka and Chukotsly Autonomous Okrug (AO). By contrast, kaluga, Yaroslavl, Samara and Irkutsk (including Ust-Ordynsky Buryatsly AO), as well as Adygeya, boast the respective index being over 1.5 times greater than in 2006.

Out of 17 regions presented in the sample given in Table 16 in 8 ones the 2007 rate of placement of new housing in operation was greater than the average nationwide figure (Krasnodar, Perm and Krasnoyarsk krais, Yaroslavl, Ulyanovsk, Rosotov, Sverdlovsk and Kemerovo oblasts). Meanwhile, in 8 other regions (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Tver oblasts, Bashkortostan, Udmurtia, Tyumen and Novosibirsk oblasts) the respective figure sank below the average nationwide one. It was the city of Moscow that reported the smallest figure (1%), while in the other capital regions the situation was far more favorable the index was 17% up in Moscow oblast and 11% up in St. Petersburg. In Kamchatka, it plummeted well below 50% of the prior years index107.

Narod k ipoteke ne gotov. In: Izvestiya, 29 Feb. 2008, p. 11.

The figures are cited from the address by Mr. D. Kozak, the RF Minister for Regional Development, at a meeting of the Council for the Priority National Projects Implementation of 28 Dec 2008. See: Kvartirny ryad, 6 12 Mar. 2008, No. 519 (684), p. 1.

Reshat problemy dolschikov. In: Kvartirny ryad, 17 Nov. 2007, No. 44 (667), p. 11.

Sotsialno-ekonomicheskoye polozheniye Rossii, 2007 god. Rosstat, p. 374375.

Section Institutional Problems Some deconcentration of house building in the capital region formed a distinguishing feature of 2007 (Table 21).

Table Volumes of Placement of New Housing in Operation in Russia, the City of Moscow, and Moscow Oblast in 1999Nationwide Total in Moscow and Moscow Moscow (Rosstat) Moscow oblast (Rosstat) (Rosstat) oblast Year As % of the % As % of the Thos. Sq.m Thos. Sq.m nationwide Thos. Sq.m Thos. Sq.m nationwide index index 1999 32,017 3,052.5 9.55 2,728.6 8.5 5,781.1 18.2000 30,296 3,342.3 11.0 2,610.9 8.6 5,953.2 19.2001 31,703 3,690.6 11.65 2,827.8 8.9 6,518.4 20.2002 33,832 4,274.1 12.6 3,414.8 10.1 7,688.9 22.2003 36,449 4,443.0 12.2 4,114.8 11.3 8,557.8 23.2004 41,040 4,578.6 11.2 5,720.1 13.9 10,298.7 25.2005 43,560 4,648.5 10.7 5,296.5 12.2 9,945.0 22.2006 50,600 4,802.0 9.6 6,484.0 12.8 11,286.0 22.2007 60,350 4,827,7 8,0 7,586,6 12,6 12,414,3 20,Source: Rosstat, authors calculations.

The city of Moscows specific weight in the overall nationwide volume of house construction dropped by more than 1.5 p.p., to 8%, while the share of Moscow oblast remained practically unchanged. The 2007 aggregate specific weight of both regions ultimately made up 20.6%, while over the two previous years it was greater at 2 p.p. (for reference, in 200304 it was 2325%).

Details of the dynamic of house construction in the city of Moscow and Moscow oblast are given in Table 22 below.

Table Volumes of Placement of Housing in Operation in the City of Moscow and Moscow Oblast in 2000By Moscow builders within Moscow (the city Townthe city of Moscow and Moscow (Rosstat) Moscow oblast (Rosstat) halls data) outside it year Thos. Sq. % to the Thos. Sq. % to the Thos. Sq. % to the Thos. Sq. % to the M. prior year M. prior year M. prior year M. prior year 2000 3,530.2 104.8 3,342.3 109.5 33,342.3 2,610.9 95.2001 3,821.5 108.3 3,690.6 110.4 3,706.1*# 110.9 2,827.8 108.2002 4,469.6 116.9 4,274.1 115.8 4,310.9* 116.3 3,414.8 120.2003 4,703.2 105.2 4,443.0 103.9 4,441.9* 103.0 4,114.8 120.2004 4,794.7 101.9 4,578.6 103.1 4,576.8* 103.0 5,720.1 139.2005 5,228.3 109.0 4,648.5 101.5 4,644.3 101.5 5,296.5 92.2006 5,318.4 101.8 4,802.0 103.3 4,804.5 103.4 6,484.0 122.2007 5,413.8 102.2 4,827.7 101.0 4,827.7 100.5 7,586.6 117.* - Built in the city of Moscow by local construction companies.

# - For 2001 there also is an estimation figure of 3,824.9 Thos. sq.m.; accordingly the growth rate vs. 2000 can be estimated at the level of 114.4%.

Source: Rosstat, authors calculations.

As in the past three years, the 2007 showed that the volume of placement of housing in operation in Moscow oblast was greater than the capital citys respective indicator. The latter accounted just for 1%, or thrice as low as in 2006 and became the smallest figure since 2000.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks It can be compared only with the 2005 results. At that time, as well as in 2007, construction companies headquartering in Moscow built a. 10% of housing outside the city. In Moscow oblast, the growth rate of house construction also proved to be smaller than in 2006 and 2002 04 and accounted for 17%.

Presently Moscow Mayor has set an ambitious goal to ensure a double reduction of the local queue for housing by 2010. During the past decade it accounted for some 180,00 families, many lining up for some 20 years. Given these figures, the task will inevitably demand for far greater volumes of housing needed for implementation of the citys housing programs.

In 2008 alone, this volume should make up 2.5 m sq m., with the overall volume of placement of new housing in operation amounting to 5 m.sq.m. vs. 1.8 m sq.m. reported in 20062007.

With the existing physical constraints facing the placement of new housing in operation in the city, an increasing role will be assigned to provision of housing under onerous conditions and through versatile beneficial arrangements, including housing purchases in Moscow oblast, among others.

5. 4. 4. Moscow City Mortgage Housing Market An analysis of the emergence and advancement of the mortgage housing market (MHM) was conducted basing on the data of the respective operations by MIEL company on the Moscow city market108.

The volume of transactions involving apartment and the proportion of mortgage-based deals in their overall number formed the group of the MHM indicators. The general situation on MHM can be seen on Fig. 2.

Index of volume of transactions Share of mortgage transactions Average interest rate, % Share of purchase money, % Average loan term, as years Fig. 2. Dynamic of Mortgage Loan Parameters and Indicators of the Market for Mortgage Transactions of MIEL in 2002 Sternik G.M., Korobkova M.V. et al. Rynok zhilya Moskovskogo regiona v 2005 g. Analiz i prognoz. MIEL-Nedvizhimost, 2005; Sternik G.M., Korobkova M.V. Vliyaniye galopiruyuschego rynka zhilya na razvitiye ipoteki v Moskve. Doklad na II Peterburgskom imptechnom forume 2 Mar. 2007.

I Q. I Q. I Q. I Q. I Q. II Q. II Q. II Q. II Q. II Q. III Q. III Q. III Q. III Q. III Q. IV Q. IV Q. IV Q. IV Q. IV Q. IV Q. Section Institutional Problems As seen from the Fig. 2, MHM passed through the take-off stage (between 2002 and mid-2005), the stabilization stage (through mid-2006), and then entered the new stage of growth.

While the volume of the companys mortgage loan transactions grew 10-fold between 2003 and the 2nd quarter 2005), it consequently discontinued to grow and remained practically stagnant over the next four quarters. It renewed its growth in the 3rd4th quarters 2006, and in the 4th quarter of the year overrun the level of the 1st quarter 2003 at 12.8 times.

The proportion of mortgage loan deals in the total volume of apartment sales also was on the rise until the 2nd quarter 2005 and reached 9%. Then it discontinued to grow for the next four quarters and even dropped slightly (to 6.9% in the 4th quarter 2005). It bounced back to its previous value in the 1st and 2nd quarters 2006, hit the level of 15.8% in the 3rd quarter and then 19% in the 4th quarter of the year.

MHM found itself affected by two groups of factors: on the one hand, those were conditions of the market for mortgage housing loans (MMHL) (banking interest rates, the amount of purchase money, loan term, and other peculiarities of banking mortgage programs); on the other hand, those were formed by the housing market (HM) per se, including price rise rates and dynamic, housing construction volumes, and volumes of offer of housing on the primary and secondary markets.

MMHL has recently advanced in the following manner.

In 2003, banks were keen to disburse serious money in loans and aggressively launched mortgage loan programs focusing on the population, but to no avail, as there was no radical growth in mortgage loan deals.

In 20042005, they continued to cut interest rates and to undertake other measures to improve borrowing conditions, and the population became increasingly keen to apply for the loans. Hence a greater volume of mortgage loan transactions and their greater proportion in the overall volume of apartment sales.

The situation nonetheless changed in the second half 2005: numerous banks argued that the number of actual mortgage deals in progress accounted just for 5080% of the amount of approved loans, while the 2005 increment rate of newly registered loans was only 5.6%. In the circumstances banks significantly lowered their requirements to mortgagers, and some of them even zeroed the purchase money. However, no substantial changes took place on MHM until the autumn of 2006.

It should be noted that, concerned with the crisis on the US subprime market, since the summer 2007 Russian banks have finally tightened underwriting procedures, started raising the Rb.-denominated mortgage interest rates and even suspended disbursement of loans for a while. Thanks to CBR and the Mortgage Loans Agencys (MLA) vigorous actions on supporting the national banking systems liquidity, the US crisis had no contagion effect on Russias mortgage system, and, together with the aforementioned negative consequences, has even exerted some positive influence on it.

The impact of factors associated with the situation on the housing market (HM) on MHM worth a good scrutiny.

As a reminder, during the phase of its emergence and development since June 1990 the Moscow city housing market passed through a number of stages: start and take-off (until the spring of 1995), fluctuation stabilization (through the autumn of 1998), crisis (until mid2000), post-crisis renewal ((until the late-2001), stabilization (during most of 2002).

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Between the autumn of 2002 and mid-2004 the market was being in the stage of the oildriven growth. The average specific offer price for housing grew from USD 1,096/sq.m. in December 2002 up to 1,610 in December 2003 (47% up) and was climbing up hence for another half year (even after demand had begun to decline) and ultimately hit the level of USD 1,950/sq.m. At the time, the volume of mortgage sales was being practically stagnant through December 2003. It renewed only in the last two quarters, and the volume of the noted deals doubled over the half year.

The stabilization period had lasted for nearly a year until mid 2005. During that period prices rose up to USD 2,142/sq.m. (at 10%), while volume of mortgage sales quintupled vs.

the previous one. In mid-2005, there started a new stage of the HMs development, which can be tagged as the mortgage- and oil-driven growth. It was over in mid-2006, and by that time prices had surged up to USD 4,072/sq.m. (1.9 times), while the volume of mortgage sales was fluctuating around index 10.0 (to December 2002).

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