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RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks On the whole, according to the existing quantitative estimates, the share of state owned stocks in Russian companies amounted to 29.6% in 2006, and to 35.1% at the beginning of 20076. By early 2008, the depth of property concentration in the hands of the State within the framework of the base Expert-400 amounted to approximately 4045 %. If in the year 2004 the State controlled 81 companies out of 400 biggest ones (with the aggregate revenue of 145 billion USD), in the year 2006 their number rose to 103 (with the aggregate revenue of 283 billion USD)7. While in the year 2004 the State controlled 34.7% of the aggregate revenue of 400 biggest Russian companies, by the results of the year 2007 this percentage increased to approximately 40%8.

In early 2008, a certain qualitative shift became evident in researchers estimates from statements of the fact of the States increasing its direct participation to attempts to assess the quantitative parameters of the States expansion. In our opinion, at present neither the above quantitative estimates of 20042007 (however conventional they might be) nor the new directions of the property-related activity of the State and the state economic structures which emerged in 2007, have provided enough grounds for making general conclusions as to any deceleration of the property expansion of the State.

For all this (all other factors, including political ones and those dealing with rents and corruption, being equal), the qualitative threshold of such expansion is sufficiently apparent:

the bigger is the state sector, the more limited are the possibilities to ensure the controllability and efficient control. This is evidenced, in particular, by the whole experience of introduction (or attempts at introduction) of some or other mechanisms for management and control of unitary enterprises and joint-stock companies with state stakes, dating back to the second half of the late 1990s and the early 2000s. By analogy with the evolution of private Russian business groups in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s9, we should expect the emergence, in the medium term, of some or other reorganization procedures aimed at optimizing the structure of the obtained assets and at optimizing the organizational and managerial aspects of functioning of state companies (or groups). Time will show how efficient these procedures are going to be with regard to state companies, and what will be the driving motives for such a reorganization after March 2008.

5. 1. 2. The Size of the State Sector, its Constituents and Basic Characteristics In the previous years (200306), a general quantitative overview of the state sector at the federal level was given in the forecast plans (programs) of federal property privatization, which were usually approved by government decrees issued at the very end of a summer. They contained data on the number of unitary enterprises in federal ownership (FSUEs) and jointstock companies with RF stakes as of 1 June of each year. In 2007, The forecast plan (pro Alfa-Banks data (Grozovskii, B. Glavnyi sobstvennik strany [The top property owner of the country] // Vedomosti, 13 February 2007).

A block of shares not less than a blocking one, or the final phase of establishing control on the part of the State.

See Vinkov, A. Gosudarstvo eto ty! [The State is you] // Ekspert [The expert], 2008, No. 2, pp. 2831.

See, e.g., Radygin, A. Evoliutsiia form integratsii i upravlencheskikh modelei: opyt krupnykh rossiiskikh korporatsii i grupp [The evolution of the forms of integration and models of management: the experience of big Russian corporations and groups] // Rossiiskii zhurnal menedzhementa [The Russia Journal of Management], 2004, Vol. 2, No. 4, OctoberDecember, pp. 3558.

Section Institutional Problems gram) of privatization for the year 2008 and the main directions of federal property privatization for the years 20082010 were confirmed by the RF Governments Regulation of 29 April 2007, No. 543-r, containing the data on the number of unitary enterprises in federal ownership (FSUEs) and joint-stock companies with state stakes, as of 1 January 2007. Therefore, there is no sufficient information enabling one to objectively assess the dynamics of these constituents of the state sector precisely in the year 2007.

Let us consider in more detail the quantitative dynamics of the subjects of the said organizational-legal forms, by each of the sub-sectors of the state sector at the federal level, for the past few years.

Federal State Unitary Enterprises Below (in Table 3) are the dynamics of development and the branch structure of FSUEs in 200306.

Table The Number of Federal State Unitary Enterprises and their Branch Structure in 2003As of 1 June As of 1 June As of 1 June As of 1 January As of 1 June Branch 2003 2005 2006 units % units % units % units % units % Non-production sphere 4,357 44.2 4,069 44.1 3,617 43.6 1,817 25.3 1,670 25.Industry 2,224 22.6 2,064 22.4 1,870 22.55 1,624 22.6 1,539 23.Including:

Machine-building 908 9.2 827 8.95 734 8.85 660 9.2 634 9. Light industry 193 2.0 193 2.1 194 2.3 187 2.6 179 2.Construction materials 81 0.8 80 0.9 68 0.8 55 0.75 49 0.industry Food industry 60 0.6 61 0.65 55 0.7 55 0.75 51 0. Metallurgy 49 0.5 37 0.4 34 0.4 30 0.4 28 0. Chemistry 46 0.5 43 0.5 39 0.5 34 0.5 33 0. Other branches of industry 887 9.0 823 8.9 746 9.0 603 8.4 565 8.Agriculture 1,329 13.5 1,237 13.4 1,111 13.4 913 12.7 826 12.Construction 1,035 10.5 978 10.6 903 10.9 752 10.5 668 10.Transport and communica 851 8.6 809 8.8 725 8.75 612 8.55 536 8.tions Forestry 64 0.6 65 0.7 67 0.8 53 0.75 49 0.Other branches 1,407 19,6 1,245 19,Total 9,860 100.0 9,222 100.0 8,293 100.0 7,178 100.0 6,533 100.Source: The forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2004 and the main directions of federal property privatization until the year 2006; The forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2005; The forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2006 and the main directions of federal property privatization for the years 20072009; The forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2008 and the main directions of federal property privatization for the years 20082010; the authors estimates.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks As is clear from Table 3, over three and a half years (between 1 June 2003 and 1 January 2007), the overall number of FSUEs dropped by 3,327 units, or by nearly one third, including between 1 June 2006 and 1 January 2007 by 9% (or by 645 units). Quite naturally, the changes which took place in the branch structure of FSUEs over this brief period were small. The greatest reduction was in the absolute number of FSUEs in the group of branches of the non-production sphere (by 146 units), and in the group other branches (by 162 units).

It seems more illustrative to compare the branch structures of the FSUEs sub-sector as of the beginning of 2002 and 2007 (Table 4).

Table The Number of Federal State Unitary Enterprises and their Branch Structure in 2002As of 1 January 2002 As of 1 January 2007 Changes Branch units % units % units % 1,844 19.6 1539 23.6 305 16.Industry Including:

879 9.4 634* 9.7 245 27. Machine building and metal processing (without industrial medical technologies) 153 1.6 179 2.7 +26 +17. Light industry 83 0.9 49 0.8 34 41. Construction materials industry 64 0.7 51 0.8 13 20. Food industry 43** 0.4 28 0.4 15 34. Metallurgy 42 0.4 33 0.5 9 21. Chemical industry 580 6.2 565 8.6 887 9. Other branches of industry 1,368 14.6 875 13.4 493 36.Agriculture and forestry 1,033 11.0 536 8.2 497 48.Transport and communications 988 10.5 668 10.2 320 32.Construction 4,161 44.3 2,915*** 44.6 1,246 30.Other branches 9,394 100.0 6,533 100.0 2,861 30.Total * Machine-building.

** Including ferrous (16 units) and non-ferrous (27 units) metallurgy.

*** Including the group of branches of the non-production sphere.

Source: www.mgi.ru, The forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2008 and the main directions of federal property privatization for the years 20082010; the authors estimates.

As regards the absolute decrease in the number of unitary enterprises over the period between 1 January 2002 and 1 January 2007, it was characterized by the following values: in transport and communications 497 units, in agriculture and forestry 493 units, in construction 320 units, and in industry 305 units.

When assessing the number of unitary enterprises, as of 1 January 2007, as a percentage of their number registered as of 1 January 2002, it can be stated that the most radical reduction (by almost one half) took place in transport and communications. In agriculture and forestry as well as in construction, the reduction in the number of FSUEs was also more considerable than in the sub-sector as a whole (by more than 30%). By contrast, the drop in the number of FSUEs in industry was almost half that much (only by 16.5%), although in the construction materials industry and metallurgy it was also more substantial than in the subsector as a whole. Against this background, the situation in light industry looks paradoxical, because the number of unitary enterprises there not only failed to decline by comparison with early 2002, but even went up by 17%. The main shift in the branch structure of FSUEs observed over the five-year period (200206) was an increase in the share of industry (by 3 p.p.), and a deSection Institutional Problems crease in the share of transport and communications (by 2.8 p.p.), agriculture and forestry (by 1.2 p.p.), and construction (by 0.3 p.p.). The share of enterprises not belonging to the said branches changed insignificantly.

It should be emphasized that the dynamic analysis of changes in the number of FSUEswas carried out on the basis of their number as of a given date, which made it possible to assess only the most general trend the trend toward decrease in the size of this sub-sector. The available statistics do not allow an assessment of either the scale of creation and liquidation of this category of economic subjects, or the scale of its reorganization into other organizational and legal forms, that is, an assessment of the actions determining the number of the said subjects at a specific point in time.

Joint-Stock Companies whose Shares are in Federal Ownership Let us consider the by-branch dynamics of the number of joint-stock companies whose shares have been in federal ownership over the past few years (Table 5).

Table The Number and the Branch Structure of Joint-Stock Companies whose Shares are in Federal Ownership, or with Regard to which the Golden Share Special Right is Applied, in 2003As of 1 June As of 1 June As of 1 June As of 1 January As of 1 June Branch 2003 2005 2006 units % units % units % units % units % 1,918 45.6 1,781 45.6 685 18.1 356 9.6 405 10.Non-production sphere Industry 1,350 32.1 1,253 32.1 2,078 54.9 1,772 47.6 1,797 44. Including:

225 5.4 209 5.4 187 4.95 663 17.8 632 15. Machine - building 43 1.0 40 1.0 54 1.4 141 3.8 127 3. Food industry 34 0.8 32 0.8 28 0.75 101 2.7 94 2. Metallurgy Construction materials 21 0.5 20 0.5 19 0.5 53 1.4 53 1.industry 19 0.4 18 0.5 46 1.2 98 2.6 89 2. Chemical industry 16 0.4 15 0.4 9 0.2 27 0.7 29 0.Light industry 992 23.6 919 23.5 1,735 45.9 689 18.5 773 19. Other branches of industry 492 11.7 457 11.7 287 7.6 380 10.2 404 10.Construction Transport and communica- 383 9.1 356 9.1 459 12.1 396 10.6 353 8.tions 46 1.1 43 1.1 229 6.1 363 9.7 534 13.Agriculture 16 0.4 15 0.4 45 1.2 99 2.7 88 2.Forestry 358 9,6 416 10,Other branches 4,205 100.0 3,905 100.0 3,783 100.0 3,724 100.0 3,997 100.Total Source: The forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2004 and the main directions of federal property privatization until the year 2006; The Forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2005; The forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2006 and the main directions of federal property privatization for the years 20062009; The forecast plan (program) of federal property for the year 2008 and the main directions of federal property privatization for the years 20082010; the authors estimates.

It follows from Table 5 that, over the period between 1 June 2003 and 1 January the overall number of joint-stock companies whose shares were in federal ownership declined by 208 units, or by 5%. The distinctive feature of the period between 1 June 2006 and 1 Janu Same is true of the following analysis of the number of JSCs with federal blocks of shares.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks ary 2007 was an increase of their number by 7.3% (or by 273 units), while during the rest of the periods the number was decreasing. The changes in the branch structure of JSCs with state stakes, which took place in the second half of 2006, were more significant by comparison with the shifts in the branch structure of FSUEs. Thus, while the share of industry declined by more than 2.6 p.p. (principally at the expense of machine-building) to 45%, the share of agriculture noticeably increased from 9.7% to 13.4% (or by 3.7 p.p.).

In order to obtain the resultant estimates of the shifts which took place in the branch structure of the sub-sector of JSCs whose shares are in federal ownership, it should be necessary to compare the data as of early 2002 and early 2007 (Table 6).

Table The Number and the Branch Structure of Joint-Stock Companies whose Shares are in Federal Ownership, or with Regard to which the Golden Share Special Right is Applied, in 2002As of 1 January 2002 As of 1 January 2007 Changes Branch units % units % units % 1,837 41.7 1,797 44.9 40 2.Industry Including:

Machine-building and metal proc- 778 17.7 632* 15.8 146 18.essing (without industrial medical technologies) 214 4.85 127 3.2 87 40.Food industry 100 2.3 53 1.3 47 47. Construction materials industry 67 1.5 29 0.7 38 56. Light industry 66 1.5 89 2.2 +23 +34. Chemical industry 64** 1.4 94 2.35 +30 +46.Metallurgy 548 12.45 773 19.35 +225 +41. Other branches of industry 622 14.1 404 10.1 218 35.Construction 477 10.8 353 8.9 124 26.Transport and communications 83 1.9 622 15.6 +539 7.5-times growth Agriculture and forestry 1,388 31.5 821*** 20.5 567 40.Other branches 4,407 100.0 3,997 100.0 410 9.Total * Machine-building.

** Including ferrous (26 units) and non-ferrous (38 units) metallurgy.

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