In January, the number of corporate bond issues remained practically unchanged, but their total volume has significantly decreased. Thus, in the period of December 25 through January 26 the total face value of all placed bond issues has decreased over five times as compared with the preceding period and reached about RUR 8.1 bln., though such trend is always typical for the beginning of the year. It is worth noting, that in this period, a large bond issue was placed by OOO «URALSIB Leasing Company» (two series of bonds for the total amount of RUR 5 billion), as well as one issuer has placed its debut bond issue.
Fig. 7.Corporate securities primary placement dynamicsIn January the number of issues, recognized invalid due to non-placement of any security in the period from December 25 November to January 26 has decreased. Federal Statistical Service for Financial Markets of Russia has recognized as invalid nine issues of corporate bonds, offered for public placement (versus seven placements within November 25 – December 7). Herewith, due to reasons of securities non-placement, there has been canceled three series of OAO «Rosneft» Oil Company bonds, totaling to RUR 45 billion.
Within December 25 to January 26, as planned before, five emitters have redeemed the bonded loans totaling to RUR 14.3 billion, including the bonds of OAO «Russian Railways» in the amount of RUR 10 billion. In February- 2009 sixteen issues of corporate bonds for the amount of RUR 22 bln is expected.
In January, due to reduced solvency of many bonds issuers, like in preceding months, the number of defaults and delayed performance of obligations (the so-called technical default) was noted. In the period from December 25 to January 26, the defaults on offer (redemption of bonds’ redemption of bonds) have been announced by nine emitters (four emitters within preceding period), on coupon yield - eight emitters (six companies within preceding period), and one issuer has announced itself defaulted due to the failure of bonds redemption (in the preceding period, all bond issuers have paid on time or in the framework of technical default).
По данным компании Cbonds Fig. 8. Yields to maturity of the Russian Eurobonds with maturity in 2010, 2018, 2028 and 2030 in November 2008 - January Real Economy Sector: Trends and Factors O. Izryadnova In 2008 macroeconomic situation was characterized by extremely unsteady dynamics of the main indices. Starting with autumn 2008 the situation in the extractive sector has been aggravated by the contraction of demand and the decrease in level of prices for raw materials and metallurgy production at the world market, the reduction of the domestic market under the influence of the production contraction in the machine-building and construction complexes. In the 4th quarter the reduction of processing industries output reached 7.7%, of electricity, gas and water production and distribution – 5.4% and of minerals extraction – 1%. In the environment of high inflation and slow-down of the growth rates of the real incomes of the population down to 2.7% as well as slow-down of growth rates of wages down to 9.7%, the rates of retail trade turnover were equal to 13.0% and were 3.7 per cent below the level of the previous year. In the 4th quarter 2008 the number of the unemployed increased by 23% as compared with corresponding period of the previous year.
In 2008 macroeconomic situation was characterized by extremely unsteady dynamics of the main indices. According to the preliminary data, in 2008 the increase in the GDP remained quite high and was equal to 6.0% the average annual growth rates over 2001-2006 being at the level of 106.3% and in 2007 being 108.1%, however the qualitative characteristics of the growth were subject to fundamental changes.
In 2008 the economic growth was defined by simultaneous slackening of the dynamics of both the internal and external demand. The decrease in world prices for raw materials and reduction of the world demand which started in the 3rd quarter 2008 has resulted in the slow-down of both physical and value volume of goods export. It should be noted that the specific feature of 2006-2008 was the anticipating growth of import against the export, which, in the end, has led in absolute reduction of the volumes of the net export of the GDP.
The slow-down of the growth rates of the investments in the fixed assets up to 9.1% in 2008 against 21.1% in 2007, which was not compensated by the level of consumption of the population accounted for the gradual reduction of the internal demand. In the environment of high inflation and slow-down of the growth rates of the real incomes of the population down to 2.7% as compared with 12.1% in 2007 as well as slow-down of growth rates of wages down to 9.7%,as compared with 19.7% a year ago, the rates of retail trade turnover were equal to 13.0% and were 3.7 per cent below the level of the previous year and the growth rates of pad services rendered to the population were equal to 4.9% against 7.1%. The slow-down of the industrial production down to 2.1% against 6.3% in 2007 had a considerable influence on the internal market.
Table Growth Rates of GDP by Components in 2007-2008, as percentage to the corresponding quarter of the previous year 2007 Quarters Quarters 1 2 3 4 1 2 GDP 107.4 108.1 107.3 109.5 108.5 107.5 106.Expenditures for final consumption 110.4 110.6 110.5 111.0 110.6 109.4 109.of households 112.4 112.7 112.8 113.1 114.1 112.2 112.Gross accumulation 124.9 125.9 118.1 123.6 110.4 117.8 114.Net export 76.1 70.8 59.0 79.6 92.7 67.4 18.Export 103.8 105.3 104.4 111.3 114.4 105.4 104.Import 128.4 128.9 126.4 126.1 127.3 122.6 124.Source: Federal State Statistics Service Accelerative growth of the first half of 2008 supported by a favorable situation at the world market of raw materials was replaced in the second half of the year by the deceleration of the rates of the economic development, which was accounted for by the negative influence of the factors connected with the sharp worsening of the foreign economic situation and crisis of financial and crediting institutions.
According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, in the 4th quarter 2008 the volume of the industrial production dropped by 6.1% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV year year year -2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 -Investments in Fixed Assets Retail Trade Turnover Industry GDP Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 1. Growth Rates of GDP, Investments in Fixed Assets, Retail Trade Turnover and Industrial Production in 2006-2008 as percentage to the corresponding period of the previous year.
The decrease in the business activity was accompanied by a sharp slow-down of the investment activity and final consumption rates. Starting with the second half of 2008 the trade has again become the leader of the national economy. The share of the wholesale and retail trade in the produced GDP was 20.2% in January-September 2008. However in the 4th quarter 2008 the reserved growth of the foreign trade was the main factor for the decrease of the share of trade in the GDP. Besides, the reduction of trade volumes in the country and at the international level has defined the change in the transportation works volume to a considerable extent. Commercial freight turnover reduced by 6.7% in the 4th quarter of 2008.
The growth rates of the retail trade turnover slowed down to 8.2% in the 4th quarter 2008 as compared with 16.7% in the corresponding period of the previous year, and investments in fixed assets reduced 1.8% (against 20.6%), which however enabled to maintain the positive dynamics of the GDP growth at the level of 2.1%, which is minimum for the period from 2001.
The slow-down of production rates was first observed in the kinds of economic activities oriented for export and later spread to the processing industry production, whose development has recently been characterized by higher growth rates.
On the whole over the period of January-December 2008 the production growth rates remained positive and were equal to 100.2% in minerals extraction, to 103.2% in the processing industries and to 101.4% in electricity, gas and water production and distribution.
The prices at the world market of hydrocarbons changing, starting with August 2008 there is a sharp drop of rates of extraction of fossil fuels observed regarding both value and physical volumes. Starting with autumn 2008 the situation in the extractive sector has been aggravated by the contraction of internal demand as a result of the drop of production in the machine-building and construction complexes. In the 4th quarter the contraction of the output of the processing productions reached 7.7%, of electricity, gas and water production and distribution – 5.4%, and of minerals extraction – 1%.
The dynamics of the processing industries is quite considerably differentiated by kinds of economic activities, the ratio of investment and consumption goods production rates having the biggest influence. The growth rates fluctuating considerably by kinds of processing industries the sharp drop of the of the machine-building production output was the prevailing factor in November-December 2008 that had a negative influence on the level of the business activity of the adjacent productions of construction materials and other kinds of intermediate goods. In the 4th quarter machine and equipment production made 88% of the corresponding indices of the previous year, electric, electronic and optic production - 92.1%, transport vehicles and equipment production – 91.3%.
In the environment of the slow-down of the domestic production growth rates the balance of the internal market was sustained by the increase in import supplies volumes against the dynamics of the domestic production. In 2008 the internal demand continued to grow faster than the economy as a whole at the expense of goods and services import expansion. The share of the internal production in the structure of the sources for internal demand backing expanded in 2008. The situation was aggravated by the slow-down of foodstuffs production rates down to 104.1% against 106.1% in 2007 as well as by the stabilization of the household appliances production and reduction of the textile and sewing goods production at the level of 4.5%. The analysis of the formation of the retail trade resources demonstrates that starting with 2005 the trend for the growth of the share of import supplies of both the foodstuffs and non-food goods has recovered. In the structure of the retail trade resources the share of import increased up to 47% in 2008, including by foodstuffs – up to 34.0%, and by non-food goods – up to 54.4% (against 58.7%). A big share of import in the retail trade turnover and in the volume of investment sin machinery, equipment and transport vehicles strengthened the dependence of the balance of the trade resources of the internal market on the changes of the foreign economic situation.
A dynamical growth of incomes of the population was one of the characteristic features of the development of the Russian economy. The maintenance of the internal market dynamics was based on the growth of the real wages and was accompanied by the redistribution of the incomes from the enterprises top the population.
In 2008 the share of employees’ labor remuneration in the GDP remained below the figures of 2007. By the end of the year the growth rates of the real incomes of the population became negative and were equal to 5.8% in the 4th quarter 2008. Real wages increased only by 2.5% in the 4th quarter 2008 and in December the real wages made 95.4% of the corresponding figure of 2007.
The comparative analysis of GDP formation by the sources of income demonstrates that the proportion of the labor remuneration reduced from 49.1% in the first quarter to 42.1% in the third quarter. In the structure of the employed population the employees account for 92%, hence the level and the proportion of the employees’ labor remuneration in the structure of the GDP had a prevailing influence on the social parameters, including the labor market. The slow-down of the industrial growth rates determined the trend for the reduction of the average annual number of the industrial and production staff and the increase in the unemployment level. The number of the unemployed was 5.8 million of people or 7.7% of the economically active population by the end of December 2008. In the 4th quarter the number of the unemployed increased by 23% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.
I II III IV I II III IV year year 2007 2008 2007 -Industry Minerals Extraction Processing Industries -Electricity, Gas and Water Production and Distribution Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 2 Changes in Production Growth Rates by Kinds of Economic Activities in Industry, 2007-2008, as percentage to the corresponding period of the previous year Table Structure of GDP Formation by Incomes in 2006-2008, as percentage to the total 2007 Quarters Quarters 1 2 3 4 1 2 GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.Employees’ labor remuneration, including hidden labor remuneration and mixed incomes 49.5 47.4 43.1 44.0 49.1 46.3 42.Net taxes on production and import 19.5 19.2 18.1 19.0 19.7 21.0 20.Gross profit of the economy and gross mixed incomes 31.0 33.4 38.8 37.0 31.2 32.7 37.Source: federal State Statistics Service In 2006-2008 the economic growth in fact represented the stage of the quantitative growth and was not supported by structural changes and diversification of the directions of the investments activities, foreign trade, production as well as the development of human resources and making profound institutional reforms, accounting favorable conditions for the activity of the economic agents. This defined the vulnerability of the Russian economy in the environment of the global changes in the world situation at the market.
The way the funds of the stabilization fund (Reserve fund and National welfare fund) were used did not allow damping of the negative influence of the external factors and the use of the accumulated funds and adoption of measures on the gradual change in the ruble exchange rate against the currency basket, on the decrease of the tax load of the producers did not succeed in stopping negative trends in the investments sphere, in the production of goods and services, in the sphere of employment and the maintenance of the standard of living.
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