Fig. Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122,ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp120,118,116,114,112,110,108,External factors behind Russian stock market dynamics In May the Russian financial market dynamics was largely determined by the global commodity markets, based on the oil price upsurge. Oil price in the stock market has reached the historical peak by the second part of the month and accounted to USD 135.09 per barrel.
Table Dynamics of international stock market indices (as of April 27 2008) Dynamics Dynamics since Ticker Value within the the year month (%)* beginning (%) MICEX (Russia) MICEXINDEXCF 1856,81 11,26 -1,RTS (Russia) RTSI 2390,60 12,28 4,Dow Jones Industrial (USA) Average DJI 12548,35 -2,66 -5,(USA (USA) (USA) NASDAQ Composite (USA) NASD 2481,24 2,41 -6,S&P 500 (USA) SPX 1385,35 -0,89 -5,FTSE 100 (UK) FTSE 6058,50 -0,54 -6,DAX-30 (Germany) DAX 6958,66 0,90 -13,CAC-40 (France) CAC 4906,56 -1,44 -12,Swiss Market (Switzerland) SSMI 7417,97 -1,22 -15,Nikkei-225 (Japan) NIKKEI 13893,31 0,22 -9,Bovespa (Brasil) BUSP 70992,06 8,90 11,IPC (Mexico) IPC 31414,21 1,31 6,IPSA (Chile) IPSA 3066,78 1,56 0,Straits Times (Singapore) STI 3115,35 -2,32 -10,Seoul Composite (South Korea) KS11 1825,23 0,03 -3,ISE National-100 (Turky) XU100 40189,29 -7,81 -27,Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free EFM 964,71 0,34 -3,Index * Versus indices, valid on April 28, 2008.
The upsurge of black gold price was provoked by conserns about the stability of oil supplies from Nigeria and Iran, the continued weakening of the US dollar position in the global currency market, increasing China demand for fuel, as well as the publication of positive information on production 01.03.23.03.12.04.02.05.24.05.14.06.04.07.24.07.13.08.31.08.20.09.10.10.126.96.36.199.10.12.28.12.29.01.18.02.11.03.31.03.23.04.15.05.rate growth in the US industry and services. However, in the background of corporate news on the losses write-off by some largest financial companies due to credits restructuring in the first quarter of 2008, as well as negative statistics on the downfall in real estate prices in the USA, a decline was noted among the majority of world indices in May, as compared with early 2008, as well as the late April indicators. Herewith, while the USA and European markets in general have declined by 1-33 per cent (against the end of April), the reverse upward trend was noted at the emerging markets, where the growth made 1-9 per cent.
Russian basic stock indices growth by 11-12 per cent was inspired by explicit oil price upsurge within the month. (See Table 1 and Fig. 6).
FIG. Dynamics of the main USA and Russian stock indexes (in % to the date 01.03.2007) 145,0% 137,5% Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite 130,0% The MICEX Index The RTS Index 122,5% 115,0% 107,5% 100,0% 92,5% 85,0% Corporate news OAO “Gazprom” On May 23, ÎÀÎ «Gazprom» and Petrovietnam have signed an Agreement on further cooperation, providing for exploration and development of four new blocks on the shelf of Vietnam, as well as the establishment of "Gazpromvet" joint-stock venture by the parties for mutual participation in the oil and gas projects in Russia and other countries.
OAO “Gazprom Neft” the net revenue of the company accounted to USD 4 143 mln (13 per cent in excess of 2006 indicator); EBITDA made USD 5 828 mln, what exceeds the 2006 indicator by 12.8 per cent. Within 2007, sales proceeds amounted to USD 21 100 mln, i.e., by 6.1 per cent more than the relevant indicator of 2006; net cash flow in operating activities within 2007 has been increased by 59.7 per cent, up to USD 5 271 mln.
In addition, on May 27, 2008 OAO “Gazprom Neft" has appointed a group of international banks for the formation of a syndicated credit, amounting to USD 1 billion, intended for business development, as well as for the existing debt refinancing.
ÎÀÎ “LUKOIL” On April 30, 2008 LUKOIL Europe Holdings B.V. (100-percent subsidiary of OAO "LUKOIL") has completed the transaction on purchasing EUROPA-MIL Croatian company. Among the acquired assets there are 9 gas filling stations in Zagreb and Split, 5 land plots, designated for filling stations 01.03.19.03.04.04.20.04.07.05.23.05.08.06.25.06.11.07.27.07.14.08.30.08.17.09.03.10.19.10.06.11.188.8.131.52.26.12.14.01.30.01.15.02.05.03.24.03.09.04.25.04.13.05.construction and river port - railway terminal for oil products with the capacity of 8000 m3, located in the city of Vukovar on the bank of the Danube river on the border with Serbia. Average daily sales volume of oil products at EUROPA-MIL filling stations is 11 tons.
ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” On April 30, 2008 ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” has disclosed consolidated financial reporting for 2007, prepared in compliance with the International accounting standards. ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” sales proceeds from basic activities amounted to RUR 10 707 million (growth by 16 per cent), including the increased proceeds from electric power trading in the amount of RUR 7 967 million and proceeds from heat power, RUR 2 066 million. ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” net revenue in 2007 has grown by RUR 245 million and reached RUR 837 mln, as compared with the relevant indicator of 2006 (regardless the occasional effect of reserve, allocated for capital assets depreciation in 2006).
On May 21, 2008 annual general meeting of OAO "Mosenergo" shareholders have approved the annual Company report and the annual financial statements for 2007, including the profit and loss statement, as well as company profit allocation as per fiscal year results. With regard to dividends, paid on ordinary shares as per 1 quarter of 2007 results in the amount of RUR 296 290 thousand, it was decided not to pay dividends on ordinary shares of the Company as of 2007 results.
OAO “GMK “Norilsk Nickel” On April 30, 2008, GMK "Norilsk Nickel" has disclosed the preliminary production performance results of Zapolyarny branch and the Kolsk GMK in Russia, as well as international branches in Finland, Australia, Botswana and South Africa for the first quarter of 2008. Total output of nickel in the first quarter of 2008 has increased to 74 572 tons (against 60 913 tons in the first quarter of 2007);
the total production volume of copper was raised up to 103 990 tons (101 049 tons in the first quarter of 2007); the company also produced 597 thousand ounces of palladium and 138 thousand ounces of platinum.
On May 20, 2008 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and OAO GMK “Norilsk Nickel" have signed a cooperation agreement, according to which the RF MFA will provide information and consulting support to OAO GMK "Norilsk Nickel" in its foreign economic activity, and the company in its turn will support the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in their joint activities in the international sphere.
RAO «UES of Russia» On April 25, 2008 RAO “UES of Russia” has addressed a letter to ZAO ‘MICEX Stock Exchange", OAO "Stock Exchange "The Russian Trading System" and NP "Moscow Stock Exchange” with the proposal to suspend the trades with RAO “UES of Russia" shares from June 6, 2008. On that date, in accordance with the decision of RAO “UES of Russia” Board of Directors, dated as of April 4, 2008, the ledger of shareholders, who will be able to become owners of shares of the Russia energy companies: 5 OGK, 13 TGC, FSK, HydroOGK, INTER RAO UES, IDC Holding and RAO East Energy Systems, emitted from RAO UES, will be closed.
On May 1, 2008 restructuring of ZAO "Inter RAO UES”, OAO North-West TPP" and OAO "Ivanovsk CCP" were incorporated with OAO Inter RAO UES (OAO Sochi TPP" before rebranding).
As a result of incorporation, the above companies have acquired the status of OAO “Inter RAO UES" branches terminated their independent activities in the capacity of joint-stock companies.
OAO “Rosneft” On April 25, 2008 OAO "NK Rosneft" Board of Directors has recommended to the annual general meeting of shareholders to disclose the annual dividends as per company performance in 2007 in the amount of RUR 1.6 per share (RUR 1.3 as of 2006 performance). Ledger closing date is April 16, 2008.
OAO “Rostelecom” According to the information dated 06.05.2008, OAO “Rostelecom” sales proceeds within the first quarter of 2008, estimated in accordance with the Russian accounting standards, has grown by 19.per cent; cost efficiency OIBDA made 30.3 per cent.
"Sberbank of Russia” On April 29, 2008 Sberbank Russia has published financial statements in accordance with the international standards of financial reporting for 2007. The net profit of the bank in IAS for amounted to RUR 106.5 billion, what is by 28,6 per cent higher than the relevant indicator of 2006.
Profitability of bank assets (ROAA) in 2007 amounted to 2.5 per cent.
Within four months of 2008 the total credit portfolio of the bank has been extended by more than RUR 380 billion and reached RUR 4484.3 billion. The growth in profit before tax, as compared with the results of the four months of 2007 amounted to 39.9 per cent (increase in profit before tax for the four months of 2007, compared with the results of the four months of 2006 made 28.7 per cent). In absolute terms, bank profits before tax amounted to RUR 62.1, net profit made RUR 45.6 billion.
ÎÀÎ “Tatneft” On May 26, 2008 OAO “Tatneft” has summarized the financial and economic performance results in the first quarter of 2008. In the reporting period the company produced 6.5 million tons of oil, which by 1.3 per cent exceeds the level of 2007. Sales proceeds amounted to RUR 93 billion, profit before tax made RUR 12.4 billion. Within the framework of the "Program for development of heavy oil and bitumen reserves", implemented at Ashalchinsk field, 3.5 thousand tons of extra-viscous oil within the reporting period, and since the start of the pilot production the volume of extraction is 10.thousand tons.
Within four months of 2008 OAO "Tatneft" has extracted 10 739 552 tons of oil, which makes 101.per cent against the relevant period of 2007; maintenance of 838 wells is performed.
Profitability in the banking sector in Mikhailov L. V., Sycheva L. I.
On the basis of a sample of 971 banks, including all the biggest ones, some profitability indices of the banking sector were analyzed. The profit to assets ratio in the banking sector in 2007 was 3%, which is close to the level observed in the years 2004 - 2006. The sum of the banking sector’s funds proper in one year increased nearly by 58 %.
The dynamics of profitability parameters The profit to assets ratio in the banking sector in 2007 was 3%, which is close to the level observed in the years 2004 – 2006, when this index was fluctuating around 2.9 – 3.2 % (see Fig. 1). At the same time, the profit to capital ratio in 2007 was found to be lower than during the two previous years. The strongest influence on the decline in the profit to capital ratio was produced by the increasing capital of Sberbank and Vneshtorgbank, resulting from their additional issues of shares. On the whole, over the year 2007 the amount of the banking sector’s funds proper grew by nearly 58 % in nominal terms.
If Sberbank is excluded from the analysis, the highest profitability would be demonstrated by those banks whose assets as of the end of the year 2007 fall within the interval from the 11th to the 50th place. The profit to assets ratio as of the end of the period in that group was 3 %11 (see Fig. 2), while the top 10 banks with biggest assets demonstrated this index to be the lowest (1.8 %). That is, despite the economy by scale factor, the biggest banks failed to display better results, in contrast, say, to the situation in 2005 when the yields on transactions in the top 10 group by the size of assets (with Sberbank excluded) were higher than in all the other groups (see Fig. 3). Profitability to capital ratio in the first group was also lower than average and is behind the results displayed by all the group except the latter one (see Fig. 4). As for small-sized banks, whose capital to assets ratio is, as a rule, higher than that of big ones, the profitability to capital ratio in 2007 was 10.9 %.
Hereinafter the relative profitability indices for each period were calculated on the basis of the size of assets and capital as of end of period, due to lack of data on some banks as of a period’s beginning. Group indices were calculated as average weighted values. The 2007 indices were calculated foe the sample of 971 banks, including all the biggest ones.
30% 1 1 – profit to assets ratio 2 - profit to capital ratio Source: Bank of Russia. The data on assets and capital represent mean values for each period.
Fig. 1. Profitability of the banking sector in 2000 - % % 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Groups by size of assets as of end of Groups by size of assets as of end of 1- banks rated from 1 to 1- banks rated from 1 to 2- banks rated from 11 to 2- banks rated from 11 to 3- banks rated from 51 to 3- banks rated from 51 to 4- banks rated from 101 to 4- banks rated from 101 to 5- banks rated from 501 to 5- banks rated from 501 to Source: calculated by the Bank of Russia’s and the Source: calculated by STIiK Company’s database.
MBK Center’s databases.
Fig. 3. Profit to assets ratio in 2005 by group Fig. 2. Profit to assets ratio in 2007, by group rates by the size of assets (without Sberbank) rates by the size of assets (without Sberbank) % 1 2 3 4 Groups by size of assets as of end of 1- banks rated from 1 to 2- banks rated from 11 to 3- banks rated from 51 to 4- banks rated from 101 to 5- banks rated from 501 to Source: calculated by the Bank of Russia’s and the MBK Center’s databases.
Fig. 4. Profit to assets ratio in 2007, by group, depending on size of assets (without Sberbank) Structure of banks’ incomes and expenditures The net financial incomes 12 of the banks across the sample are approximately equally dependent on interest and non-interest incomes: net interest income as a percentage of assets in 2007 amounted to 4%, while net non-interest income – to 3.9 %. More than a half of their received incomes were spent by the banks to cover administrative expenses (4.4 %), net operating income thus amounting to 3.5 %. The growth of reserves was 0.8 %, that of profit to assets ratio - 2.6 %.