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1. , 2003.

2. International Financial Statistics, 2003.

. - ADF- 1% DF- I(0) I(1) LN_NEERI - - 1 0,244 -2,589 I (1) D(LN_NEERI) - - 0 -7.397 -2.589 I (0) LN_MONEY + - 1 -0,550 -3,506 I (1) D(LN_MONEY) + - 0 -11.640 -3.506 I (0) LN_RCONS + + 2 -1.046 -4.064 I (1) D(LN_RCONS) + + 1 -9.789 -4.064 I (0) LN_OIL - - 1 0,256 -2,588 I (1) D(LN_OIL) - - 0 -8.859 -2.588 I (0) LN_CPI + - 3 -1,044 -3,505 I (1) D(LN_CPI) + - 2 -3.732 -3.502 I (0) FOOD + + 3 -2.433 -4.060 I (1) D(FOOD) - - 2 -2.925 -2.588 I (0) GOODS + - 1 -1.602 -3.501 I (1) D(GOODS) + - 0 -6.838 -3.501 I (0) SERV + + 6 -2.694 -4.064 I (1) D(SERV) + - 5 -5.283 -3.505 I (0) LN_PPI + - 4 -0,427 -3,506 I (1) D(LN_PPI) + - 3 -4.306 -3.506 I (0) BUILD_M + + 3 -3.374 -4.064 I (1) D(BUILD_M) + - 2 -4.341 -3.505 I (0) CHEM + + 3 -2.175 -4.064 I (1) D(CHEM) + - 2 -5.519 -3.505 I (0) ENERGY + + 3 -1.735 -4.064 I (1) D(ENERGY) + - 2 -6.300 -3.505 I (0) FERR_M + + 3 -2.927 -4.064 I (1) D(FERR_M) + - 2 -4.791 -3.505 I (0) FOOD_IND + + 3 -2.180 -4.064 I (1) D(FOOD_IND) - - 2 -2.843 -2.589 I (0) FUEL + + 1 -2.182 -4.061 I (1) D(FUEL) + - 0 -4.608 -3.503 I (0) MACHIN + + 2 -2.398 -4.063 I (1) D(MACHIN) + - 1 -4.564 -3.504 I (0) NON_FERR_M + + 3 -2.359 -4.064 I (1) D(NON_FERR_M) - - 2 -3.143 -2.589 I (0) OIL_CHEM - - 4 2.245 -2.589 I (1) D(OIL_CHEM) + - 3 -5.198 -3.506 I (0) TEXTILE + + 1 -2.324 -4.061 I (1) D(TEXTILE) + - 0 -3.789 -3.503 I (0) WOOD + + 1 -2.296 -4.061 I (1) D(WOOD) - - 0 -4.064 -2.589 I (0) Sample: 1995:01 2002:Included observations: Test assumption: Linear deterministic trend in the data Series: LN_CPI LN_NEERI LN_MONEY LN_RCONS LN_OIL Lags interval: 1 to Likelihood 5 Percent 1 Percent Hypothesized Eigenvalue Ratio Critical Value Critical Value No. of CE(s) 0.268041 69.08297 68.52 76.07 None * 0.215495 43.18441 47.21 54.46 At most 0.147592 23.04011 29.68 35.65 At most 0.091124 9.785880 15.41 20.04 At most 0.022107 1.855478 3.76 6.65 At most *(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%(1%) significance level L.R. test indicates 1 cointegrating equation(s) at 5% significance level Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 1 Cointegrating Equation(s) LN_CPI LN_NEERI LN_MONEY LN_RCONS LN_OIL C 1.000000 0.607450 -0.403984 -0.407463 -0.042447 7. (0.04810) (0.04763) (0.25156) (0.02781) Log likelihood 844.Series: LN_PPI LN_NEERI LN_MONEY LN_RCONS LN_OIL Lags interval: 1 to Likelihood 5 Percent 1 Percent Hypothesized Eigenvalue Ratio Critical Value Critical Value No. of CE(s) 0.426568 94.95449 68.52 76.07 None ** 0.268000 48.79683 47.21 54.46 At most 1 * 0.152009 22.90293 29.68 35.65 At most 0.090866 9.217452 15.41 20.04 At most 0.015666 1.310608 3.76 6.65 At most *(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%(1%) significance level L.R. test indicates 2 cointegrating equation(s) at 5% significance level Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 1 Cointegrating Equation(s) LN_PPI LN_NEERI LN_MONEY LN_RCONS LN_OIL C 1.000000 0.725979 -0.094829 -1.435117 -0.304428 13. (0.13918) (0.12291) (0.47662) (0.03874) Log likelihood 758. Series: FOOD LN_NEERI LN_MONEY LN_RCONS LN_OIL Lags interval: 1 to Likelihood 5 Percent 1 Percent Hypothesized Eigenvalue Ratio Critical Value Critical Value No. of CE(s) 0.382924 74.53635 68.52 76.07 None * 0.162371 34.94974 47.21 54.46 At most 0.151574 20.42102 29.68 35.65 At most 0.062885 6.942438 15.41 20.04 At most 0.019521 1.616581 3.76 6.65 At most *(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%(1%) significance level L.R. test indicates 1 cointegrating equation(s) at 5% significance level Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 1 Cointegrating Equation(s) FOOD LN_NEERI LN_MONEY LN_RCONS LN_OIL C 1.000000 0.803905 -0.236128 -0.927611 -0.134197 10. (0.07331) (0.06916) (0.31503) (0.04203) Log likelihood 834.Series: GOODS LN_NEERI LN_MONEY LN_RCONS LN_OIL Lags interval: 1 to Likelihood 5 Percent 1 Percent Hypothesized Eigenvalue Ratio Critical Value Critical Value No.

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