Table Saint-Petersburg Bonds Included into the A1 Listings at the SPCE Trading volume at the SPCE, RUR million Type, category and Issue vol- number of issue Redemption ume, RUR in January in February in March date billion 2005 2005 SP GIO bonds, 6th 06.08.2014 5.issue 50.6 403.7 136.SP GIO bonds, 36th 11.10.2006 3.issue 737.2 371.8 31.SP GIO bonds, matur- ity from 5 to 30 years - - (with current coupon 20.04.2011 3.and сall feature)*.
The calculations were made on the basis of the data obtained from the SPCE.
Thus, one can expect that changes in the list of securities permitted for pension accruals investment would in a varying degree have an impact on all primary classes of assets which private asset management companies invest in, except for government securities issued on behalf of the Russian Federation. Changes in legal provisions and regulations will result in that at least some of the asset management companies would have to rebalance their investment portfolios in the nearest future.
Mikhailov L.V., Sycheva L.I., Kostikov D.V.
The Real Sector of the Economy: Factors and Trends According to the data presented by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in the first quarter of 2005 the increase in GDP made 5.0 per cent as compared with 7.3 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
In January through April of 2005, the growth observed in manufacturing industries made 5.7 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year, the increase in extraction of mineral resources made 2.2 per cent, while the growth in production and distribution of electrical power, natural gas and water was registered at 2.3 per cent. The amount of investment in fixed assets in January through April of 2005 increased by 9.8 per cent and made Rub. 721.billion.
In the first four months of 2005, the amount of resources of the RF Stabilization Fund grew by 64.per cent and made Rub. 858 billion.
According to the preliminary data presented by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in the first quarter of 2005 the increase in GDP made 5.0 per cent as compared with 7.3 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. In spite of the fact that in March and April of this year there became apparent the trend towards the recovery of the macroeconomic dynamics, determined by the increasing rates of growth in the consumer and investment demand, on the whole over the period from the beginning of the year there was observed a certain decline in the intensity of growth across practically all macroeconomic indicators. In January through April of 2005, the industrial production index made 104.2 per cent; the amount of works in construction was registered at 105.6 per cent, while the turnover of freight was at 101.6 per cent as compared with 106.8 per cent, 114.4 per cent, and 109.5 per cent respectively registered in the same period of the preceding year.
The moderate growth in production of goods and services has determined the dynamics and structural specifics of domestic demand. Since the second half of 2004, investment in fixed assets has been replaced by final consumption of households in terms of the leading positions in the structure of economic growth. While the turnover of retail trade increased by 10.3 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in January through April of 2004, the growth in investment in fixed assets made only 9.8 per cent and was by 3.1 percentage points below the level observed in the preceding year. In January through April of 2005, the amounts of investment in fixed assets from all sources of financing made Rub. 721.2 billion, what made approximately 12.0 per cent of GDP.
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross Domestic Product Final consumption of households Investment in fixed assets Figure 1. Changes in the dynamics of the utilized GDP as broken down by its components in through 2005, in per cent of the figures registered in the respective quarter of the preceding year The expansion of consumer demand was supported by the positive dynamics of growth in household incomes. The increase in the real household incomes registered in January through April of made 5.6 per cent, while real wages and salaries grew by 8.7 per cent, and the real gross pensions increased by 6.6 per cent. This year, the dynamics of consumption were significantly affected by the structural specifics of formation of household incomes. As a result of monetization of social benefits, the share of social payments in the structure of household incomes increased by 2.5 p. p. and made 15.5 per cent. Besides, the specific weight of incomes generated by entrepreneurial activities and properties grew by 0.9 p. p. At the backdrop of the trend towards a decline in the intensity of growth in the nominal wages and salaries in the structure of household incomes, the share of labor remuneration in the household incomes declined by 3.3 p. p. and made 61.2 per cent. The dynamics of this indicator should attract special attention, since the remuneration of labor of employees is the principle source of incomes for the overwhelming part of the populace.
Since the beginning of the year, the size of employment in the economy grew by 0.6 million persons, while the number of unemployed calculated in accordance with the ILO declined over the respective period by 318 thousand persons; by the end of April of 2005 this figure made 5.8 million persons, or 7.9 per cent of the total economically active population. The increase in the level of employment in the economy was accompanied by the processes of redistribution of labor resources across the types of economic activities. The coefficient of tension (the number of unemployed citizens registered with employment agencies per vacancy) made 2.5 in April of this year as compared with 2.observed in the beginning of the year. However, the persisting significant differences as concerns the amounts of the average monthly wages and salaries, the increase in the size of employment did not result in positive changes in the indicators of social and economic differentiation of the population across cash incomes: in the 1st quarter of 2005 the coefficient of funds made 14.8 times, while the Gini coefficient made -0.405. This year, this situation was aggravated by the impact of the accelerating rates of inflation and a significant transformation of price proportions.
Since the beginning of the year, the consumer price index has increased by 6.5 per cent as compared with 4.6 per cent registered in January through April of 2004. At the background of outpacing rates of growth in prices of food products (106.7 per cent) and tariffs on paid consumer services (113.5 per cent), the share of expenditures for purchase of goods and payment for services in the structure of utilization of household incomes has significantly increased. Since the purchasing power of household incomes with respect to key food products declined, the turnover of retail trade with foods has been determined by the shift of consumer demand to the segment of cheaper products. Besides, the structure of household expenditures has begun to be affected by increasing inflationary expectations of the populace, which traditionally manifested themselves via the decreasing households’ propensity to save, increasing expenditures for purchase of foreign exchange, and accelerating rates of purchase of non-food goods initiated by the moderate growth in prices as concerns this commodity group (101.per cent). In comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2004, the share of savings in the structure of household incomes declined by 1.6 p.p., while the specific weight of expenditures for purchase of foreign exchange increased by 2.1 p. p. It should be also noted that the households’ propensity for organized savings has been declining. In accordance with the figures observed in the 1st quarter of 2004, the share of household savings denominated in deposits and securities decreased by 2.7 p. p. High household investment activity associated with construction of housing has remained the factor checking the utilization of household savings for the purposes of current consumption. In January through April of 2005, the commissioning of housing constructed at the expense of own and borrowed household funds increased by 10.3 per cent as compared with 3.6 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. However, the impact of this factor on the nature of utilization of household incomes depends not only on the level of household incomes and prices of housing, but also the general economic situation and the investment environment.
The positive impact of simultaneous expansion of both domestic and external demand has persisted as concerns the nature of economic growth. Under the influence of the business situation on the domestic market, the growth in manufacturing industries registered in January through April of made 5.7 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year, the increase in extraction of mineral resources made 2.2 per cent, while the growth in production and distribution of electrical power, natural gas and water was registered at 2.3 per cent.
The outpacing rates of growth in output of manufacturing industries was accompanied by the dynamic expansion of output of machinery and equipment (117.4 per cent), electrical equipment, electronic and optical equipment (115.3 per cent). The output of transport vehicles and respective equipment was characterized by moderate rates of growth (4.3 per cent). In January through April of 2005, the production of cars declined by 5.5 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year, while the output of trucks decreased by 12.8 per cent. It should be noted that the respective slump was observed also in April. Output of such motor factories as OAO AvtoVAZ, OAO GAZ, and OAO IzhAvto declined by 4.1 per cent, 34.2 per cent, and 38 per cent respectively. There is observed reorientation of consumers from products of domestic manufacturers to the products manufactured by enterprises with participation of foreign capital and foreign companies. In January through April of 2005, the amount of production of cars at joint ventures increased by 23.2 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2004. According to the data presented by the Federal Customs Service, in the 1st quarter of 2005 import of cars made 139.8 thousand amounting to US $ 1388.6 million as compared with 80.3 thousand cars totaling to US $ 852.8 million registered in the respective period of the preceding year. It should be noted that the decline in output of cars has initiated the processes of optimization of expenditures of enterprises and has been accompanied by the decrease in the number of employees. It is apparent that the contraction of demand for domestically produced cars is not of a seasonal nature, but is determined by the state of domestic motor industry at large. The products of domestic manufacturers are inferior to imported cars in terms of quality and innovations. The declining competitive capacity of domestic motor industry may be illustrated by on the basis of comparison between imports and exports. As export of machinery and equipment decreased by 15 per cent in the 1st quarter of 2005, import of machinery and equipment increased by almost 33.0 per cent.
16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I 2001 2002 2003 2004 Aggregate demand Domestic demand External demand Figure 2. Changes in the rates of domestic and external demand in 2001 through 2005, in per cent of the figures registered in the respective quarters of the preceding year This year, wood working, chemical production, and food industry may be defined as relatively stable points of growth in the manufacturing sector. The real Ruble appreciation has yet failed to stop the recovery observed across manufacturing industries; however, the rates of growth in imports more than 4 time exceed the growth in domestic output.
The demand for timber and paper products observed on the domestic market, as well as the positive dynamics of production of commercial timber have affected the acceleration of the rates of growth in products characterized by high degree of processing. As concerns wood working and production of wooden goods, in January through April of 2005 the industrial output index made 107.7 per cent in comparison with the figures observed in the respective period of 2004.
As concerns the production of chemicals, in January through April the Industrial Output Index made 102 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2004, while with respect to production of rubber and plastic goods this index was registered at 92 per cent. Chemical production is characterized by high degree of wear and tear of fixed assets and extremely low investment activity. The technical and technological backwardness of production determine the low com petitive power of domestic products in comparison with similar imported goods, what in the end results in a decline in output.
Although extracting industries are characterized by more moderate dynamics as compared with manufacturing industries, their contribution in the dynamics of aggregate demand systemically increase under the impact of an intensive growth in export prices of hydrocarbons, metals, and other commodities.
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