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...................................................................................................................Figure A4.1: Indifference curves for the pension system: the ratio between the average pension and pensioners subsistence, 2030..................................................................Figure A4.2: Indifference curve for the pension system: compensatory relationship between an increase in the payroll share and cuts in the UST rate.............................................Figure A4.3: Indifference curve for the pension system: replacement ratio in the PAYG system, 2030...............................................................................................................LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Expenditure Trends in Russia in 1997-2003, Enlarged Government Budget, Table 1.2: Public debt sustainability estimates. Debt-to-GDP ratio,................................ Table 1.3: Summary of Incremental Annual Fiscal Costs for the Set of Analyzed Fiscal Reforms.....................................................................................................................Table 1.4: Matrix of the Proposed Fiscal Rules for Russia.............................................Table 2.1: Structure of Core Government Administration and Civilian Public Sector Employment in 2002...................................................................................................Table 2.2: Core Government Administration Employment in Russia in 19942002.....Table 2.3: Structure of Civil Service Employment in 2001.............................................Figure 2.1: Public Sector Employment in Selected OECD Countries and Transition Economies...................................................................................................................Table 2.4: Cash Compensation and Non-Wage Expenditures on Core Government Administration and Civilian Public Employment in 2002........................................Table 2.5: Key Macroeconomic Assumptions..................................................................Table 2.6: Estimated Public-Private Pay and Compensation Gaps, 2002......................Table 2.7: Civil Servants Perceptions: Expected Pay and Compensation Levels for Benchmark Positions in the Federal Civil Service.....................................................Table 2.8: Attrition Rates Expected in the Education Sector, 2001...............................Table 2.9: Assumption on Pay Reform Pace, Measured as a Share of the Overall Planned Gap Covered.................................................................................................Table 2.10: Possible Scope of Pay and Administrative Reforms.....................................Table 2.11: Description of the Civil Service Reform Scenarios Included in Simulations.

.....................................................................................................................Table 2.12: Fiscal Implications of Civil Service Reform: Summary Results (Increase in Expenditures GDP, p.p. as compared to 2003)..........................................................Table 2.13: Structure of Expenditure Increase in Year 2010 for Selected Scenarios.....Table 2.14: Detailed Breakdown of the Increase in Fiscal Costs of Civil Service Reform.....................................................................................................................Table 2.15: Fiscal Implications of More Radical Pay Adjustments for Decision Makers in Federal Executive Civil Service Headquarters as of 2010..................... vi Table 3.1: Structure of Housing Financing.......................................................................Table 3.2: Financing of the Housing Sector......................................................................Table 3.3: Cost Recovery and Collection Rates, 2000-02.................................................Table 3.4: Financial Indicators for the Housing and Utility Sector.................................Table 3.5: Average Household Expenditure on Housing and Utilities...........................Table 3.6: Structure of Budget Spending on Housing and Utility Services to the Population (main programs of direct budget support).............................................Table 3.7: Estimates for Total Fiscal and Quasi-fiscal Support to the Housing and Utility Sector in 2003..................................................................................................Table 3.8: Total Volumes of Available Financing in the Sector, 2003.............................Table 3.9: Inflation and Price Growth in Housing and Utilities, 1998-2000....................Table 3.10: Estimates for the Effect of Deferred Inflation in the HUS (non-energy part), 1997-2002..........................................................................................................Table 3.11: Cost Structure in the Housing and Utility Sector, per 1 Square Meter of Residential Housing, as of end 2002...........................................................................Table 3.12: Budget Expenditures on Utility Services Provided to Budget Organizations, by the Level of Government.......................................................................................Table 3.13: Macroeconomic Assumptions: Average GDP and Real Household Income Growth for 2004-06.....................................................................................................Table 3.14: Scenarios for Housing and Utility Reforms, Selected for Simulations.........Table 3.15: Real Growth in Energy Tariffs for Households in 2006 Relative to 2002, Depending on Scenario...............................................................................................Table 3.16: Additional Growth in Residential Tariffs to Ensure the Elimination of Cross-Subsidization....................................................................................................Table 3.17: Effect on Costs of Efficiency Gains in Reform Scenarios.............................Table 3.18: Various Factors of Growth in Unit Housing Costs, Accumulated Growth for the Period Relative to 2002.........................................................................................Table 3.19: Results of Simulations for the Third Year of Reforms: Status Quo Scenarios -- Slow Reforms in Housing and Utility Tariffs, No Elimination of lgoty.................Table 3.20: Results of Simulations for the Third Year of Reforms: Scenarios with Advanced Reforms in Housing and Utility Tariffs, but without Elimination of lgoty.....................................................................................................................Table 3.21: Results of Simulations for the Third Year of Reforms: Scenarios with the Advanced Reforms in Housing, Utility Tariffs, and the Elimination of lgoty (as % of GDP)...................................................................................................................Table 4.1: Basic Parameters of the Russian Pension System, 1995 - 2002....................Table 4.3: Main preferential regimes for social insurance contributions, 9 months of 2003...................................................................................................................Table 4.4: Assumptions on Macroeconomic Parameters of the Base Scenarios (Group I)...................................................................................................................Table 4.5: Additional Assumptions in Scenarios with Reduced UST Rates, (Group II)...

...................................................................................................................Table 4.6: Payroll Share in GDP of Various Countries, Percent..................................Table 4.7: Real Wage Growth in Various CEE Countries, 1995 - 2000, Percent.........Table 4.8: Base Demographic Projections (scenarios from Group I-IV)......................Table 4.9: System Dependency Ratio.............................................................................Table 4.10: Real pension as a percentage of the average wage at the time of retirement..

...................................................................................................................Table 4.11: Some results of sensitivity analysis for 2030: equivalence table.................Table 4.12: Potential impact of an increase in immigration on the pension system...... vii Table 4.13: Summary of the simulation results for replacement rate and potential fiscal costs...................................................................................................................Table A2.1: Federal Civil Servants in the Russian Federation Categories in Accordance with the Current Legislation................................................................Table A2.2: Tentative Classification of Civil Service Positions in Accordance with the Draft New Legislation...............................................................................................Table A2.3: Significant Administrative Reform (Attrition Rates)................................Table A2.4: Fair Administrative Reform (Attrition Rates)...........................................Table A2.5: Assumption on Attrition Rates in Civilian Public Sector Employment Adjusted by Demographic Projections (2001 2010)...............................................Table A2.6: Fiscal Costs of Civil Service Reform for the Selected Scenarios...............Table A2.7: Existing Pay Gap and Proposed Pay Increases in Federal Executive HQbased Civil Service, times.........................................................................................Table A3.1: Basic Data Used in Simulations and Related Assumptions........................Table A4.1.

Total affordable replacement rate, %.........................................................Table A4.2. Affordable average replacement rate in the pay-as-you-go pillar..............Table A4.3. Affordable average replacement rate in the fully funded pillar.................Table A4.4. Overall affordable average replacement rate adjusted for the personal income tax (13%)......................................................................................................Table A4.5. Real overall affordable replacement rate (replacement rate adjusted for the share of informal wages in the total payroll)...........................................................Table A4.6. Ratio of the overall affordable average pension to the minimum subsistence level Table A4.7. Additional funding needed to maintain the replacement rate at 30%, as a share of GDP.............................................................................................................Table A4.8. Average replacement rate in the pay-as-you-go system if the pension indexation rules remain to be based on the currently effective legislation.............Table A4.9. Balance of the base pension component, as % of GDP...............................Table A4.10. Balance of the NDC pension component, as % of GDP............................Table A4.11. Overall balance of the PAYG pension (base+NDC), as % of GDP..........Table A4.12. GDP growth rate........................................................................................Table A4.13. Real annual growth in taxable wage (reflecting decline in shadow wages),..

...................................................................................................................Table A4.14. Share of Taxable Payroll in GDP, %.........................................................Table A4.15. System Dependency Ratio (ratio of pensioners and employed), %.........Table A4.16: Tax rates for pension contributions to the NDC and fully funded components, depending on income and age, as percent of annual personal income...

viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared in response to a request from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. It was produced by the joint team led by Lev Freinkman and included the staff of the World Bank and several Russian think tanks.

Chapter 1 was prepared by Alexander Morozov (ECSPE) and Lev Freinkman (ECSPE).

Chapter 2 was prepared by Yelena Dobrolyubova (ECSPE) and Lev Freinkman (ECSPE). Nikolay Klishch (Consultant) prepared a background paper on the policy implications and risks associated with the implementation of public administration reform.

The team is grateful for the comments and suggestions received from Andrey Klimenko, John Litwack (ECSPE), and Neil Parison (ECSPE). The Chapter also benefited from the discussions with Mr. Dmitriev, First Deputy Minister for Economic Development and Trade, Mr. Sharov, Head of Civil Service Department, Ministry for Economic Development and Trade, Mr. Petrov, Head of Civil Service Department, Ministry of Labor and Social Development, and Ms. Lamm, Head of Financing of the Government Apparatus, Ministry of Finance, as well as other government officials. The earlier draft of the Chapter was discussed at the seminar at the Higher School of Economics.

Chapter 3 was prepared by Lev Freinkman (ECSPE), Sergei Sivaev (Institute of Urban Economy (IUE), Moscow), Alexei Rodionov (IUE), and Irina Starodubrovskaya (Institute of Economy in Transition). The team also benefited from advice and suggestions by Alexander Puzanov (IUE), Anastassia Alexandrova (IUE) and Emin Askerov (IUE).

Comments and advice were provided by Arvo Kuddo (ECSHD), Peter Ellis (ECSIE), Ellen Hamilton (ECSIE), Peter Thomson (ECSIE), and Ruslan Yemtsov (ECSPE).

Chapter 4 was prepared by Lev Freinkman (ECSPE) and Dmitri Pomazkin (Consultant) with contributions from Saeed Batkibekov and Pavel Trounin (Institute of Economy in Transition (IET), Moscow). The background paper on eligibility rules under the existing special regimes of pension contributions was prepared by Ekaterina Bolshakova (IET). Pavel Kadotchnikov (IET) helped with the development of macroeconomic assumptions. The earlier draft of the Chapter was discussed at the seminar held at the IET, chaired by Dr Yegor Gaidar. The team also benefited from discussions with the Department Director for Social Policy in the Ministry of Economy and Trade, Mr. Karagodin and his staff. Helpful comments and suggestions were provided by Olga Antimonova (ECSPE), Anton Dobronogov (SASFP), Anita Schwarz (ECSHD), Hermann Von Gersdorff (ECSHD), and Ruslan Yemtsov (ECSPE). Olga Antimonova also assisted with assembling international data.

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