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Debts in bln roubles (in prices as of January 1, 2000) (in prices as of January 1, 2000) Monetary aggregates M2 in bln roubles 09/03/09/03/09/03/09/03/09/03/09/03/09/03/09/03/09/03/09/03/09/01/04/07/10/01/04/07/10/01/04/07/10/01/04/07/10/As concerns the sectoral structure, debts of industry stable make the major share of the total and outstanding indebtedness (see Figure 6). At the same time, while the share of the industrial sector makes about 42.1 per cent in the total amount of creditor indebtedness, it makes 46.1 per cent in the total outstanding indebtedness (the figures as in January of 2004). It shall be noted that the share of industry in outstanding creditor indebtedness has somewhat increased in comparison with the figures registered in October of 2003.

Similarly, housing and public utilities, agriculture, and transport (since January of 2002) have accounted for a larger share in the outstanding creditor indebtedness than in the total amount of indebtedness. This ratio indicates that repayment of commercial credits in these sectors is more often delayed as compared with other sectors. For instance, outstanding debts make 59.3 per cent in creditor indebtedness of agriculture and 52.per cent of indebtedness of housing and public utilities. On the average, this indicator makes 24.7 per cent in Russia.

Figure Structure of creditor indebtedness across base sectors of the economy by the end of February, 2003.

Other types of activities 100% 90% Housing and communal services 80% 70% Trade and public catering 60% 50% 40% Communications 30% 20% Transport 10% 0% TOTAL OVERDUE Agriculture Accounts payable Source: RF Goskomstat, calculations of the authors.

Among industries, the leaders in terms of their share of outstanding indebtedness in the aggregate creditor indebtedness are coal industry (67 per cent, see Table 2), electrical power engineering (40 per cent), light industry (41.3 per cent), and microbiological industry (77 per cent). However, while the amounts of indebtedness of two latter industries are relatively small, debts of electrical power engineering and branches of fuel industry total to about one third of the total indebtedness in the economy on the whole. The largest consumer of commercial credits in absolute terms are branches of mechanical engineering and metal working, as well as fuel industry. It shall be noted that there was observed a significant decrease in the amount of outstanding debts of natural gas industry and ferrous metallurgy in 2003.

Table Structure of creditor indebtedness across industries as in end of February of Share of outstanding Creditor indebtedindebtedness in the ness Share of outtotal indebtedness, % Share of credistanding creditor indebtedtor indebtedness of the ness of the industry in the Industries industry in the Including aggregate Total, Memorandum, aggregate outstanding Jan.

indebtedness of indebtedness of Rub. October of debts, Rub. the industry on billion the industry on billion the whole, % the whole, % Industry, total 2060000 556800 27,03% 26,02% 100,00% 100,00% Including, electrical power 237600 95200 40,07% 42,04% 11,53% 17,10% engineering Fuel industry 527900 117400 22,24% 16,17% 25,63% 21,08% Including 0,00% Oil extracting industry 233300 5,36% 3,75% 11,33% 2,24% Oil processing industry 59700 17800 29,82% 21,88% 2,90% 3,20% Natural gas (extraction and processing or natural and 149600 29700 19,85% 15,15% 7,26% 5,33% casing head gas) Coal industry 84400 56700 67,18% 67,87% 4,10% 10,18% Ferrous metallurgy 108500 18300 16,87% 21,60% 5,27% 3,29% Non-ferrous metallurgy 120800 34000 28,15% 29,52% 5,86% 6,11% Chemistry and petrochemistry (without chemical phar- 107600 29500 27,42% 34,68% 5,22% 5,30% maceutical industry) Mechanical engineering 583400 164700 28,23% 28,60% 28,32% 29,58% and metal working Forestry, woodworking, and 54800 18400 33,58% 37,99% 2,66% 3,30% pulp and paper industry Industry of construction 53900 19100 35,44% 38,21% 2,62% 3,43% materials Glass, porcelain, and fa8200 2000 24,39% 28,92% 0,40% 0,36% ience industry Light industry 30000 12400 41,33% 42,74% 1,46% 2,23% Food industry 170100 22500 13,23% 15,16% 8,26% 4,04% Including fish industry 23100 4300 18,61% 20,90% 1,12% 0,77% Share of outstanding Creditor indebtedindebtedness in the ness Share of outtotal indebtedness, % Share of credistanding creditor indebtedtor indebtedness of the ness of the industry in the Industries industry in the Including aggregate Total, Memorandum, aggregate outstanding Jan.

indebtedness of indebtedness of Rub. October of debts, Rub. the industry on billion the industry on billion the whole, % the whole, % Microbiological industry 3000 2300 76,67% 70,00% 0,15% 0,41% Flour, grits, and combined 15600 3000 19,23% 22,42% 0,76% 0,54% fodder industries Medical industry 9000 1700 18,89% 19,78% 0,44% 0,31% Printing industry 6700 200 2,99% 2,99% 0,33% 0,04% Source: RF Goskomstat, calculations of the authors.

The further developments in the sphere of payments will depend on the situation in the real sector of the economy and the level of budget revenues. It should be noted that the most acute danger for softening of budgetary constraints (weaker enforcement) is a budget crisis. However, at present the persistence of positive rates of growth in spite of certain negative trends as concerns the recovery of growth in payments arrears, such as Ruble appreciation, provide grounds for positive expectations in the sphere of inter-enterprise payments.

O. Lugovoi The Real Sector: Factors and Trends According to the preliminary data for the 1st quarter of 2004 published by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, GDP increased by 8.0 per cent in comparison with the respective period of the preceding year.

In the Russian economy, there persists the trend towards an outpacing rate of growth in investment as compared with GDP dynamics and expenditures for final consumption.

As concerns the sector of production of goods, there dominating influence has the expanding business activity in construction. The amount of works in construction increased by 13.8 per cent, while the industrial output grew by 7.4 per cent. In the sector of services, the increase in the turnover of retail trade made 10.per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2003 due to an intensive expansion of the effective household demand.

According to the preliminary data for the 1st quarter of 2004 published by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, GDP increased by 8.0 per cent in comparison with the respective period of the preceding year.

The dynamic development of the national economy was supported by the persisting high rates of growth in production across practically all sectors of the economy. The output of products and services of the base economic sectors increased by 7.9 per cent as compared with the figures registered in January through April of 2003. The expanding amount of works in construction (by 13.8 per cent) and turnover of retail trade (by 10.7 per cent) had the dominating influence on the changes in the structure of production. In January through April of 2004, the rates of growth in industrial output made 107.4 per cent as compared with 106.3 per cent observed in the respective period of the last year. This ratio between the rates of development in different sectors reflects the specific nature of the factors of economic dynamics observed in the 1st quarter.

Figure Changes in the dynamics of GDP, domestic and external demand in 2001 through 2004, in % of the figures registered in the respective quarter of the preceding year.

18,16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,2001/I II III IV 2002/I II III IV 2003/I II III IV 2004/I GDP Domestic demand External demand The acceleration of the dynamics of the development of the Russian economy took place at the background of expansion of both domestic and external demand. Due to the exceptionally favorable world business situation on the markets of hydrocarbon raw materials and metals, in the 1st quarter of 2004, the amount of Russian export of goods, according to the estimates made by the RF Ministry of Economic Development made US $ 37.3 billion and increased by 20.0 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year. More favorable conditions of trade with export goods resulted in an increase in the positive balance of trade in the 1st quarter of 2004 up to US $ 18.1 billion as compared with US $ 15.3 billion registered in the 1st quarter of 2003 and was a factor behind the expanding domestic revenues in the economy.

The comparison of dynamics of the amounts and volumes of exports, as well as the rates of production demonstrates that intensity of production of export oriented industries gradually decrease at the background of growing influence of the business situation on the world market. The possibilities to further expand exports are limited due to both production capacities of producers, and delivery capacity of transport communications. Besides, while at present the market of hydrocarbon products is characterized by a rather stable expansion of supply determined primarily by the revival of the world economy, the specifics of the market of metals, which has the cyclic nature of demand, were restrained reaction of producers to the changes in the scale of output. As a result, this year there was observed a declining rate of growth in fuel industry and metallurgy. In January through April of 2004, the increase in production of fuel industry made 8.5 per cent, including oil extracting industry, where the growth in output was registered at 10.7 per cent, what was by 1.and 2.8 p. p. below the respective indicators registered last year. As concerns ferrous metallurgy, in January through April the growth in production there made 106.0 per cent in comparison with 109.7 per cent registered in the respective period of the last year, while in non-ferrous metallurgy the increase in output made 104.3 per cent as compared with 108.6 per cent.

The slowing down of the rates of growth in output observed in the fuel and metallurgy complex occurred at the background of an intensive increase in average actual export and domestic prices of the products of export oriented industries. As domestic prices of production of export oriented industries of the raw materials sector grew, the pressure of these prices on manufacturing industries increased. In April of 2004, the growth in producer prices of manufacturers of industrial products outpaced the changes in consumer prices by almost 8 p. p. Thus, only in the first four months of this year, the increase in prices of products of mechanical engineering made 7.2 per cent, while in the construction materials industry and food industry the respective indicators were at 7.5 per cent and 5.9 per cent.

Table Price indices of producers of industrial output in January through April of 2004.

As compared with the figures registered in DeAs compared with the figures registered cember of the preceding in the preceding month year Janu- Febru- March April April of April of ary ary 2004 Industry, total 104,2 103,4 101,7 102,7 112,5 104,Electrical power engineering 104,0 106,5 100,2 100,1 111,0 112,Fuel industry 110,9 104,1 101,5 103,8 121,6 95,Oil extracting industry 106,0 105,0 101,5 103,7 117,1 89,Ferrous metallurgy 102,9 105,3 107,5 115,1 134,0 115,Non-ferrous metallurgy 103,7 103,0 100,1 100,5 107,4 111,Mechanical engineering 102,4 102,1 101,4 101,3 107,2 103,Industry of construction materials 101,1 102,4 100,9 102,9 107,5 105,Light industry 101,8 101,9 100,5 100,7 104,9 104,Food industry 101,6 101,6 101,1 101,5 105,9 102,Memorandum:

Consumer price index 101,8 101,0 100,8 101,0 104,6 106,Source: Federal Service of State Statistics Simultaneously, a significant impact on the domestic market had the relative reduction in prices of imported products caused by the changes in the Ruble exchange rate. In the 1st quarter of 2004, import of goods made US $ 17.2 billion, what was by 21.3 per cent above the level registered in 2003. The situation was aggravated by the fact that the scale of supply of domestic goods did not correspond to the scale of expansion of domestic demand. The increase in import of consumer and investment products was accompanied by the changes in the competitive environment and gradual squeezing of Russian producers out of markets. As compared with the figures registered in 2003, the share of domestically produced goods in the total amount of available resources decreased by almost 2 p. p. (as compared with the figures observed in the 1st quarter of 2003). This circumstance may explain the unexpectedly low contribution of industry in the dynamics of economic growth observed in the 1st quarter of 2004.

At the same time, in the beginning of this year there persisted the trend towards a gradual improvement of the structure of industrial growth. While the export oriented sector of industry kept its leading position, it to a certain degree transformed the growth in external demand in an expansion of the domestic market. The positive conditions of growth in production in final industries were, first, expansion of consumer demand for nonfood products basing on increasing real household incomes and real wages and salaries, and, second, increase in investment demand initiated by growing profitability of production and net capital inflow in the sector of non-financial corporations. In January through April of 2004, the growth in production of mechanical engineering made 15.3 per cent, in the industry of construction materials 10.4 per cent, in food industry 8.8 per cent, while the output of intermediate goods increased by about 6.8 per cent to 7.0 per cent. These dynamics of industrial growth was significantly different from the situation observed in the 1st quarter of 2003, when the increase in production of final industries was at 3.5 per cent, and industries of the raw materials sector made about 10 per cent.

The changes in proportions of industrial growth illustrates a gradual development of the processes of transformation of export revenues of the economy in the expansion of the domestic market. As the experience accumulated over the last five years demonstrates, exactly the prevailing influence of the dynamics and structure of domestic demand has the decisive impact on the rates of the recovery growth.

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