WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     | 1 | 2 || 4 | 5 |   ...   | 13 |

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, fulfilled funding) IV03 V03 VI03 VII03 VIII`03 IX`03 X`03 XI`03 XII`03 I`04 II`04 III`04 IV`Total expenditures 21.0% 21.3% 20.6% 20.4% 20.0% 19.6% 19.5% 19.4% 19.4% 20.9% 20.2% 19.8% 20.4% State administration 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% National defense 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 4.0% 2.9% 3.7% International activity 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Judicial authority 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Legal protection and security 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% Fundamental research 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% Services to national economy 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% Social services 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 3.0% Government debt servicing 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% Other expenditures 7.2% 7.4% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 5.7% 6.8% 6.1% 6.6% Total expenditures 20.2% 19.9% 19.2% 18.8% 18.6% 18.3% 18.0% 18.1% 17.8% 15.6% 20.2% 18.0% 19.7% Surplus (+) / deficit (-) 0.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 5.3% 0.0% 1.8% 0.7% According to the estimates of the Tax Ministry, in April of 2004 tax revenues of the federal budget made about Rb. 130.2 billion (without the single social tax). In real terms the revenues made 266.3 per cent of the level registered in January of 1999, while the respective indicator was at 280.4 per cent in April of 2003 and 277.8 per cent in April of 2002 (see Table 3).

At the same time, in April of 2004 the revenues generated by the single social tax made Rb. 36.9 billion.

Thus, in April of 2004 the RF Tax Ministry transferred to the federal budget taxes and fees amounting to about Rb. 167.1 billion.

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% 2002* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 239,6% 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 299,7% 241,0% 250,2% 2003* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 230,0% 229,2% 265,5% 280.4% 233.2% 240.0% 260.4% 242.6% 248.7% 265.6% 231,0% 247,9% 2004* I II III IV 266,5% 204,4% 237,1% 266.3% * .

It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

Figure Real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July of 1999) 135% 125% 115% 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% Profit tax VAT 55% 45% 35% The dynamics of real arrears relating to major taxes since January of 2000 are presented in Fig. 1.

The debts related to the payments due to the federal budget made for VAT Rb. 256.3 billion as on March 1, 2004, increasing by Rub. 0.6 billion in February of 2004, while the arrears of the profit tax increased only by Rb. 1.6 billion and made Rb. 28.0 billion. On the whole, a gradual decrease in the level of accumulated arrears observed since early 2001 to the second half of 2003 was replaced by the stabilization of the level of accumulated indebtedness as concerns both the profit tax, and VAT.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expenditures 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expenditures 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expenditures 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expenditures 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% 27,4% 27.1% 26.0% 26.1% 25.7% 25.0% 25.0% 25.1% 25.2% Revenues 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% 33,4% 33.6% 32.2% 32.2% 31.6% 30.9% 30.8% 30.7% 31.1% Expenditures 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% 28,8% 28.8% 28.6% 28.7% 28.5% 28.2% 27.8% 27.9% 29.7% Deficit 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% 4,5% 4.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 1.4% I II III Taxes 25.6% 20.6% 21.8% Revenues 30.6% 28.2% 29.8% Expenditures 18.5% 22.8% 25.4% Deficit 12.1% 5.4% 4.4% * The revenues of the consolidated budget in January through March of 2004 made 29.8 per cent of GDP, including tax revenues (without SST) at 21.8 per cent of GDP (see Table 4). Expenditures of the consolidated budget decreased by 2.3 p. p. of GDP in comparison with the figures registered in January through March of 2003 and made 25.4 per cent of GDP. As on April 1, 2004, the surplus of the consolidated budget made 4.4 per cent of GDP, what is by 0.6 p. p. of GDP above the level observed in the respective period of 2003.

A. Razin Monetary Policy This April, the rates of growth in consumer prices somewhat increased in comparison with the figures registered last month and made 1 per cent by the end of the month. At the same time, the base inflation also increased. In April of this year, there was observed a decline in the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Central Bank. In May, the RF Finance Ministry made payments relating to the external debt amounting to more than US $ 2.5 billion.

In April of 2004, the growth in consumer price index made 1 per cent in comparison with the figures registered last month (4.6 per cent since the beginning of the year) (see Figure 1). It should be noted that in April of 2003 CPI also increased by 1 per cent, while inflation accumulated from the beginning of the year made 6.2 per cent. This April, the most significant growth in prices was observed in the group of paid consumer services (by 2 per cent in comparison to the figures registered in March of 2004 and 8.5 per cent since the beginning of the year). Last year, the increase in respective prices over four months made 12.6 per cent.

As a year ago, the most significant growth in prices was observed in the sphere of prices of services relating to housing and public utilities (by 15.6 per cent). It should be noted that with the exception of services rendered by organizations of culture and preschool education, paid consumer services rose in prices slower than in 2003.

As it was expected, base inflation4 (0.8 per cent in April, 0.7 per cent in March) stopped to decline. It should be reminded that its level is determined primarily by the growth in money supply (with a certain lag) and the velocity of cash circulation depending on the exchange rate. The pressure on consumer prices on the part of money supply is increasing, since at present the consumer price index is affected by its expansion registered in the 4th quarter (by 5.2 per cent a month on the average). Accordingly, the main role in restraint of inflation is played by slowing velocity of cash circulation.

Over four months of 2004, the prices of food products increased at a slower rate than last year. In April of 2004, the growth in these prices was below 0.8 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the last month, and since the beginning of the year CPI for this group of products increased by 4.7 per cent, while last year over the same period of time the growth in prices made 5.8 per cent. However, in 2004 the rates of rise in prices of a number of most important food products were significantly higher than the same indicators The Base Consumer Price Index (BCPI) is an indicator reflecting the inflation rate on the consumer market. It leaves out of account the seasonal (prices of fruits and vegetables) and administrative (tariffs on regulated types of services etc.) factors, calculated by the Statistics Service of the RF.

registered in the respective period of the last year. For instance, since the beginning of the year the growth in prices of bread and bread related products, which rose in prices by 2.2 per cent this April, made 11.5 per cent, while in the first four months of 2003 the respective prices decreased by 0.1 per cent. The deceleration of the general price index of food products is primarily explained by the dynamics of prices of fruits and vegetables, the average monthly rates of increase in prices of which this year were almost three times below the average monthly rates registered last year. Besides, a more moderate growth in comparison with the figures registered last year was observed with respect to the group of prices of fish and sea products, butter, and sunflower oil.

In spite of the fact that the changes in prices of nonfood products has a more moderate impact on the CPI dynamics than foodstuffs, it should be mentioned that the rates of growth in prices of these products over four months of 2004 are also below the indicators registered in the respective period of the last year. This April, they grew by 0.6 per cent, while the increase since the beginning of the year made 2 per cent (0.6 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively in 2003).

According to preliminary estimates, in May inflation rates will be at or below 0.6 to 0.8 per cent.

Figure 1.

The Growth Rate of the CPI in 2002 - 2004 (% per month).

3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% In the first four months of 2004, the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia increased by US $ 5.8 billion (see Fig. 2). As on May 1, 2004, the amount of these reserves made US $ 82.billion (+ 7.5 per cent since the beginning of the year). In the first two weeks of May, the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves did not change. However, as on April 1, 2004, the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves made US $ 83.4 billion, i.e. over the month they decreased by US $ 0.7 billion, or by 0.per cent. In April, the gold and foreign exchange reserves were declining, what is primarily related to the foreign debt related payments made by the RF Finance Ministry. It should be also noted that in spite of considerable forex denominated proceeds of oil exporters, the total amount of foreign exchange to the RF market could decrease, since, according to preliminary data, in the 2nd quarter the outflow of capital from Russia intensified. This fact is primarily related to the expectations that the discount rates in the USA would be increased.

In April of 2004, the monetary base of the Russian Federation in the broad definition5 decreased by 2.2 per cent, and as on May 1 made RUR 1.9 trillion (the process of decline was observed for the second month runThe RF Monetary Base in broad definition includes cash in circulation, the Ruble denominated funds in mandatory reserves relating to the borrowings of credit organizations, and funds in credit organizations correspondent accounts and commercial banks' deposits with the Bank of Russia.

Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov May May ning). The opposite dynamics of the monetary base in broad definition and the narrowly defined monetary base, which increased by 2.9 per cent in April, is related to the fact that the amount of accounts of crediting organizations with the Central Bank of Russia diminished by 20.4 per cent to RUR 184.8 billion (-64.9 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the beginning of 2004), while the amount of banks deposits in the Bank of Russia in April also decreased 2.2 times to RUR 49 billion. The main factors behind the decline in the level of liquidity in the banking sector were significant payments to budgets of all levels and further accumulation of funds in budget accounts not compensated by issue of money because of the amount of net sales of foreign exchange by the Bank of Russia on the forex market in March and April. At the same time, the amount of cash in circulation (as adjusted for cash balances of crediting organizations) made RUR 1.3 trillion as on May 1 (by 3.3 per cent above the level registered on April 1 of this year and by 6.9 per cent above the figures observed on January 1 of 2004), what predetermined a growth in the narrowly defined monetary base. The amount of mandatory reserves also declined by 4.2 per cent and made RUR 275.7 billion, partially due to the fact that the CB of RF reduced the rate of mandatory reservation concerning deposits of legal entities since April 1 of 2004.

Figure 2.

Changes in the Monetary Base and in the Gold and Foreign Currency Reserves in 2003 - 2004.

Pages:     | 1 | 2 || 4 | 5 |   ...   | 13 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .