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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES May 2003 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2003 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget...........................................................................................................3 Monetary Policy...................................................................................................................................6 Investment in fixed assets....................................................................................................................8 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends...................................................................................................9 IET Business Survey: Industry..........................................................................................................11 Regions: Dynamics of Industrial Output...........................................................................................13 Foreign Trade.....................................................................................................................................16 Forecasting certain macroeconomic indicators..................................................................................18 Principles of the analysis of social and economic outcomes of transition to the contract based army*...........................................................................................20 2 The State of the Federal Budget In the 1st quarter of 2003, the revenues of the state budget (cash execution) made 20.9 % of GDP, while expenditures made 17.7 % of GDP (see Table 1). Therefore, the federal budget surplus made 3.2 % of GDP.

Table 1 The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP1, in comparable prices) III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 X`02 XI`02 XII`02 I`03 II`03 III`03 IVRevenues Corporate profit tax 1,5% 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7% 1,6% 1,7% 1,6% 1,6% 1,2% 1,1% 1,4% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 4,0% 3,9% 3,6% 3,5% 3,5% 3,3% 3,2% 3,1% 3,1% 3,1% 2,4% 2,7% 2,8% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade operations 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,1% 9,0% 8,9% 8,9% 8,9% 11,2% 10,1% 9,9% Other taxes, duties and payments 6,8% 6,9% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 6,9% 6,9% 6,9% 6,9% 8,5% 7,4% 7,2% Total- taxes and charges 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% 2,2% 2,1% 2,0% 2,0% 1,9% 2,0% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% Non- tax revenues 3,2% 3,0% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 3,0% 3,4% 3,4% 3,4% Revenues, total 8,7% 8,7% 8,4% 1,8% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,1% 2,1% 2,1% 0,5% 1,7% 2,0% Expenditure 19,6% 19,9% 19,6% 19,3% 19,4% 18,9% 18,5% 18,6% 18,5% 18,6% 18,8% 19,0% 19,4% Public administration 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 17,5% 8,5% 1,3% National defense 20,9% 21,2% 20,9% 20,6% 20,9% 20,4% 20,0% 20,2% 20,1% 20,1% 20,8% 20,6% 20,9% 21,0% International activities Judicial power 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,5% 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% Law enforcement and security activities 1,9% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,5% 2,5% 2,4% 2,4% 2,5% 2,7% 1,5% 2,1% 2,6% Fundamental research 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% -0,3% 0,0% 0,2% Services provided for the national economy 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Social services 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,7% 1,1% 1,4% 1,7% Servicing of public debt 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% Other expenditure 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% 0,8% 0,8% 1,2% 1,3% 1,5% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% Expenditure, total 4,8% 5,3% 5,2% 5,2% 5,2% 5,1% 4,9% 5,5% 5,6% 5,6% 1,5% 1,8% 2,0% Loans, redemption exclusive 3,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,4% 2,2% 2,0% 2,0% 1,7% 2,9% 3,0% 2,3% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3,6% 3,9% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,9% 3,8% 3,9% 3,9% 3,8% 6,6% 7,1% 7,0% Budget deficit (-) 16,1% 16,9% 17,1% 17,2% 17,2% 17,1% 16,9% 17,8% 18,0% 18,7% 12,7% 16,4% 17,7% 18,1% Domestic financing 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% 3,1% 2,4% 2,1% 1,4% 8,1% 4,2% 3,2% 2,9% Other taxes, duties and payments -2,7% -2,0% -1,8% -1,6% -1,8% -1,3% -1,2% -0,5% -0,2% 0,6% -6,6% -1,7% -1,0% -0,5% Total- taxes and charges -2,1% -2,3% -1,9% -1,8% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -2,0% -1,4% -2,5% -2,2% -2,4% Non- tax revenues -4,8% -4,3% -3,8% -3,4% -3,7% -3,3% -3,1% -2,4% -2,1% -1,4% -8,1% -4,2% -3,2% -2,9% * % ; ** As compared with the figures registered in January through March of 2002, the budget revenues practically did not change in January through April of 2003, while expenditures increased by 0.4 p.p. and budget surplus respectively decreased by 0.3 p.p. At the same time, without SST the budgetary revenues increased by almost 1.2 p.p. of GDP and made 18.1 % of GDP.

In April of 2003, VAT accounted for the major share of federal tax revenues 34.4 % of the total tax revenues what is by about 2 p.p. above the level observed in the respective period of 2002.

According to preliminary estimates, the cash execution of federal budget revenues made 21 % of GDP in January through April of 2003, what is by 0.2 p. p below the respective level observed in January through March of 2002. At the same time the cash execution of expenditures made 18.1 % of GDP (16.9 % of GDP in 2002); therefore, the surplus made 2.9 % of GDP (4.3 % of GDP in 2002).

According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, in terms of fulfilled funding2 the expenditures of the federal budget in January through April of 2003 made 20.2 % of GDP (see Table 2), Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

while on May 1 of 2002 this indicator was at 19.1 % of GDP. As a result, the surplus of the federal budget in terms of fulfilled funding in the first four months of 2003 has also decreased by 1.3 p.p. in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2002 and made 0.8 % of GDP.

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, fulfilled funding).

III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 XII`02 I`03 II`03 III`03 IVTotal 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% 20,5% 20,5% 20,0% 20,1% 21,4% 21,2% 20,9%,0% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,6% 0,6% 6% National defense 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,5% 3,2% 3,3% 2% International activities 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% -0,4% 0,1% 0,1% 3% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 2% Law enforcement and security 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 1,9% 1,6% 1,6% 1,7% 1,9% 2,3% 2,3% 2% activities Fundamental research 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 3% Services provided for the 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,0% 1,5% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 9% national economy Social services 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% 5,6% 5,4% 5,2% 5,7% 2,6% 2,8% 2,7% 9% Servicing of public debt 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,6% 2,4% 2,4% 2,0% 1,7% 3,0% 3,0% 3% Other expenditure 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,8% 7,0% 7,8% 7,3% 3% Total expenditure 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% 19,1% 18,6% 18,2% 18,7% 16,9% 21,1% 20,8%,2% (+) / (-) 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,8% 1,7% 1,4% 4,5% 0,1% 0,1% 0,8% According to the estimates of the Revenue Ministry, in April of 2003 tax revenues of the federal budget made Rb. 123.1 billion (without the single social tax). In real terms the revenues made 280.4 % of the level registered in January of 1999, while the respective indicator was at 277.8 % in 2002 and 267.5 % in (see Table 3).

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% 2002* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 239,6% 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 299,7% 241,0% 250,2% 2003* I II III IV 230,0% 229,2% 265,5% 280,4% * .

It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

Figure 1.

Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July 1999) 200% 180% Profit tax VAT 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% The dynamics of real arrears relating to major debts since June of 1999 is presented in Fig. 1. The debts related to the payments due to the federal budget made for VAT Rb. 236.1 billion as on May 1, 2003, the arrears of the profit tax made Rb. 30.6 billion. On the whole, the dynamics observed over the last 2 years and the latest data still demonstrate a gradual decrease in the level of accumulated arrears as concerns the profit tax. At the same time, an increase in the VAT arrears in April of 2003 was caused by the fact that this month is the last term of payment of tax liabilities for the reporting year, what directly corresponds to the general straucture of the seasonal component of the VAT arrears time series.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expenditures 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expenditures 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expenditures 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October December February April I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expenditures 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% I II III Taxes 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% Revenues 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% Expenditures 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% Deficit 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% * The revenues of the consolidated budget in March of 2003 made 31.5 % of GDP, including tax revenues (without SST) at 25.6 % of GDP (see Table 4). Expenditures of the consolidated budget increased by 1.7 p.

p. in comparison with the figures registered in March of 2002 and made 27.7 % of GDP. The surplus of the consolidated budget in March of 2003 made 3.8 % of GDP, what is below the level observed in March of 2002 (5.4 % of GDP).

S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy In April, 2003, inflation was one percent, or 6.2 percent recalculated since the beginning of the year (see Fig. 1). According to the State Committee for Statistics of the RF, price growth rates were especially high in the field of payable services to the population (1.8 percent) and foodstuffs (one percent). Service prices have grown 12.6 percent since the beginning of the year. In April, 2003, in seven constituent entities of the RF prices for goods and services grew over 1.5 percent. The greatest growth of prices for goods and services, 3.percent, has been marked in Buryatiya (tariffs for chargeable services have grown 13.7 percent over the period). In Moscow and St. Petersburg consumer prices have grown 1.9 percent in April, or 5.9 percent and 8.1 percent since the beginning of the year, respectively.

Figure 2002-2003 . (% ) 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Foreign reserves continued to grow in April May, 2003 (see Fig. 2). As at 1 May 2003 they amounted to US$ 58.3 billion, a growth of 22.2 percent since the beginning of the year or 5.2 percent in April. In the first half of May the amount of foreign reserves grew another US$ 1.6 billion (+2.7 percent), reaching US$ 59.billion on 16 May.

Figure 2.

Dynamics of money supply (limited indicator) and foreign reserves in the second half of 2002 - 1035 985 935 925 825 Money supply (limited indicator) (RUR billion) Foreign reserves (US$ billion) In April the limited indicator of the limited indicator of the money supply grew from RUR 930.4 to 988.billion (+6.2 percent). During the first three weeks of May the money supply grew another 3.9 percent. The broad indicator of the money supply grew eight percent in April (from RUR 1284.5 to 1386.8 billion). Thus, the broad indicator of the money supply grew 12.5 percent since the beginning of the year, while in the corresponding period of 2002 it contracted 1.1 percent. The dynamics of the money supply can be above all explained by the fact that the Central Bank has been accumulating foreign reserves (see Fig. 2).

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