The World Bank estimates the 2010 global GDP growth rate at 3.9% and forecasts its slowdown to 3.3% in 2011 and some better performance (up to 3.6%) – in 2012. In its statement, the World Bank holds the global economy is in transition from the post-crisis recovery phase to the one of a slow but steady growth, which should last for next two years. The major feature of the future period should be a half of the global growth being propelled by emerging economies. It is envisaged that they combined should post a 7% growth rate in 2010, 6% - in 2011 and 6.1% - in 2012. Thus, in this respect they should outpace high-income nations with their projected growth rates being 2.8% in 2010, 2.4% - in 2011 and 2.7% - in 20121.
After a very painful downturn in 2009, the global trade expanded notably in 2010. The WTO experts believe that after verification of statistical data the last year’s increase in global exports should be in the region of 13.5%. If so, it is going to be the all-time high rate ever registered since the beginning of running such statistics in the 1950s. The previous highest growth rate in global trade (12.2%) was registered in 1976. That said, in all fairness, this astounding accomplishment is noted against a very low benchmark.
It is envisaged that emerging economies should post export growth rates higher than developed nations (16.5% vs. 11.5%), with Asian tigers being particularly active (up by some 27%) vis--vis other country groupings in this regard.
http://go.worldbank.org/88GN6SUPU RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 4.6.2. Conditions of Russia’s Foreign Trade: Situation with Prices for Major Russian Exports The 2010 pricing environment for major Russian exports was favorable, with most commodity markets being all bulls.
The positive oil price dynamic in the global market in 2010 was stirred by the renewal of demand for oil which practically hit the 2007 level. Plus, China and other Asian economies were particularly thirsty for oil, forecasts of demand for oil for 2010-2011 were optimistic, and the leading global forex and security markets were in an optimistic mood.
In the first months of 2010, the world oil prices mostly were on the upswing, and on 3 May were at their 19-months highs (with Brent traded at USD 88.94/b). They subsequently dwindled to USD 74/b on fears triggered by the national debt crises in some EU countries and a slowdown of China’s growth, uncertainties with the US economy’s development, and because of a lax demand for energy resources in Europe.
In July 2010, oil prices picked their growth and on 23 December the official price of Brent stood at its 26-months high (since October 2008) – at USD 93.65/b.
The year of 2010 ultimately saw a 28.7% price rise for Brent on a year-on-year basis, but when compared with 2008, it slid by 18.4% (Table 50).
The price dynamic for oil products was basically following the oil prices. In 2010, the prices of oil products were on average up by 51% on a yearly basis, with gasoline prices adding 26.8%, but loosing 21.2% vs. the 2008 figures.
European prices for natural gas picked their growth in August 2009 and have been soaring through Q1 2010. However, due to the seasonal contraction of demand, they slid slightly in Q2 and resumed their rise in the seconds half of the year, which ultimately resulted in their adding 2.7%. Meanwhile, they remained at 4.8% lower than in the previous year (while in 2009 they were down by 35% against the 2008 figures).
The markets for metals in 2010 found themselves seriously propelled by the general recovery of the global economy and industrial sector and by the situation in China as the hugest consumer of metals in particular. The boom in China’s construction sector, launch of ambitious infrastructure projects in India and other emerging economies heralded a bright future for the steel market until 2013, even regardless of a possible slowdown of the global economic advancement rate.
The Real Sector of the Economy After a drastic fall in aluminum production in 2009, the respective demand began to surge dramatically: after hitting the bottom in February 2009 (1,330 USD/ton) the prices had skyrocketed by more than 80% by the spring of 2010 and outshot the mark of 2,445 USD/ton.
The situation on the copper market in 2010 likewise remained favorable. Over the year, the inventories were shrinking and demand was on the upswing against the backdrop of increasingly optimistic forecasts for the global economy. After their fall in Q2 2010, copper prices picked growth in August and continued to surge through the end of the year. As a result, by December the average monthly price had hit USD 9,147.26/ton against 7,386.25 /ton in January 2010 (3,453.2 USD/ton in Q1 2009). The average 2010 price of copper thus made up 7,535 USD/ton.
The 2010 nickel prices mirrored the most intense recovery dynamic. Plus, there has been no increase in offers on the market. As a result, the average 2010 price of nickel was up by 64.5% more vs. the 2009 figures and accounted 21,809 USD/ton The price dynamics of food staffs and agricultural raw materials on the global markets were multidirectional: in early 2010, prices for grain crops, vegetable oil and sugar were chiefly on decline, while meat prices were soaring. That said, the world price level for the foods stuffs and agricultural raw materials was on average higher than in Prices for grain crops (except for barley) were down because of earlier accumulated considerable global reserves and an increase of estimates of carry-over stocks of grain, and growing export supplies from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey and other regions of the world.
In the first half 2010, prices for the US wheat and corn sank by 23 and 6.5%, respectively, Canadian wheat was down by 17%, barley was traded at 18% higher than in the first half of the prior year (in 2009, the prices of the said grain crops were down by 36, 28, 41 и 46% respectively).
After hitting their peak in January 2010, sugar prices have been dipping drastically until June. As a result, in just five months after hitting their all-time highs, the prices for raw sugar were down 1.9 times and the ones for refined sugar – 1.6 times. Behind such a dramatic downfall were more optimistic forecasts of harvest and the anticipation of greater sugar supplies from Brazil and India in the 2010-11 agricultural year. As well, the appreciation of the USD also sent the prices nosedive. Despite the downfall, the price level of sugar on the world market remained high. In the first half 2010, sugar was traded 1.5 time higher than in the same period of 2009 (in the first half 2009, it was nearly 1.2 times costlier than the year before).
The price dynamics on global markets for food stuffs and agricultural raw materials changed in mid-2010: the month of June saw prices of sugar, Canadian wheat and barley picking growth; in July, they were followed by the US wheat, corn, rice and vegetable oils.
By the end of the year prices for soya beans and products of their processing, wheat and corn hit their 2.5 year highs.
Expectations of a considerable fall in the harvest of grain crops because of extremely unfavorable weather conditions (draught in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine; torrential rains in Canada, a number of Asian countries and some European ones; unheard-of chills in some Latin American countries) drove grain prices up drastically. Russia’s ban and Ukraine’s restrictions on grain exports boosted the trend. As a result, in 2010 the price rise for the US SRW accounted for 23.5%, corn – 12.3%, Canadian wheat –3.9%, barley –23.0% (Table 51).
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Dynamics of Average World Prices on Some Agricultural 2006 2007 2008 2009 Wheat, USD/ton Canadian, CWRS 216.8 300.4 454.6 300.5 312.US, HRW 192.0 255.2 326.0 224.1 223.US, SRW 159.0 238.6 271.5 186.0 229.US corn, USD/ton 122.9 163.0 223.1 165.5 185.Barley, USD/ton 117.0 172.0 200.5 128.3 158.Soya beans, USD/ton 268.4 384.0 523.0 437.0 450.Soya bean oil, USD/ton 598.6 881.0 1258 849.0 1005.Thai rice, USD/ton 304.9 326.4 650.1 555.0 488.Raw sugar in US, import price, CIF New 48.76 45.77 46.86 54.88 79.York, US cents/kg Source: World Bank.
While the biggest meat importing nations found themselves better off and on the road to recovery, consumption of beef was up worldwide and in the Asian countries in particular. The Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Japan and Malaysia became forerunners in this regard, and the 2010 beef prices posted a 27.12% growth vis--vis the prior year.
Prices for veal were also up; however, the price rise so far has been more moderate and accounted for 16.8%. Meanwhile poultry prices have not changed since 2009.
Contraction in the harvest of oil-plants due to unfavorable weather conditions drove prices of vegetable oils on the global markets upwards. Meanwhile, the anticipation of high yields of soya beans in a number of regions had a constraining impact on the prices. As a result, the average 2010 prices for palm oil were at 27.4% higher than in the same period of the prior year.
160,140,120,100,80,60,40,20,0,Far Abroad CIS Fig. 46. Index of Foreign Trade Conditions Jul-Jul-Jul-Jan-Jan-Jan-Mar-Mar-Mar-Sep-Nov-Sep-Nov-Sep-Nov-May-May-May-Section 4.
The Real Sector of the Economy In 2010, it was raw sugar that posted the greatest price rise rate of 44.4% (because of a rapid price rise in the second half of the year), thanks to which the sugar prices hit their 30year highs.
Because of the advanced growth rates of export prices vis--vis import ones, Russia's foreign trade conditions were favorable in 2010. The trade condition index accounted for 117.points (in 2009 – 116.0). After a significant deterioration of foreign trade conditions between late-2008 and early 2009, the export-to-import price ratio began improving since the first months of 2010. That said, it was foreign trade conditions with Far-Abroad countries that posted a faster growth rate (Fig. 46).
4.6.3. Main Indicators of Russia's Foreign Trade In 2010, Russia's foreign trade turnover calculated by the balance-of-payments methodology hit USD 648.4 bln. vs. 495.2 bln. reported in 2009, ie was up by 30.9%. The growth in trade was fueled primarily by improving conditions of foreign trade. Specifically, Russian exports were propelled by the renewed demand for them and a better pricing environment for Russian exporters on world markets. The restoration of the value volumes of import should be ascribed to the growth of Russia's economy, rising real disposable incomes, and a real appreciation of the national currency.
With all these factors in place, Russia failed to catch up with the pre-crisis level, nonetheless: when compared with 2008, the nation’s foreign trade turnover contracted 15.1%. So, the 2008 figures stand unbeatable over the whole period of observations. (Fig. 47).
Fig. 47. Main Indicators of Russia’s Foreign Trade (as USD mln.) RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks The growth in the volume value of export was fueled mostly by the better pricing environment for Russian exporters, while the main factor behind the increase in the value volume of import was its growing physical volumes. (Table 52).
Table Indexes of Russia’s Foreign Trade (as % to the Respective Period of 2009) Q1 2010 1st half-year 2010 January-September 2010 Physical Average Physical Average Physical Average Physical Average volume prices volume prices volume prices volume prices Export 120,4 119,5 109,6 119,4 110,2 116,9 110,0 119,Import 112,9 103,1 122,6 101,8 130,8 101,2 135,4 101,Source: the RF Ministry of Economic Development The foreign trade data over the recent months show the continuation of the trend to a fast growth in import vs. the subsiding dynamic of export. As a result, the year of 2010 saw a month-to-month contraction in the balance of trade. In August, it was USD 8.3 bln., ie. the 16-month low.
In all, Russia’s 2010 balance of foreign trade was positive and accounted for USD 151.bln., or up by 35.9% vs. the 2009 figure (USD 111.6 bln.), but 15.6% less than the 2008 one (USD 179.7 bln.).
The 2010 disequilibrium in trade ratio (balance to trade turnover) was 0.234 vs. 0.225 reported in the prior year.
4.6.4. Structure and dynamic of export In 2010, Russian exports increased up to USD 400.0 bln., or by 31.9% against the prior year (Table 53). The increase was fueled largely by rising contractual prices. The dynamic of exported goods over 2010 evidenced decelerating growth rates vis--vis the respective periods of 2009.
The volume of export in Q4 2010 was a maximum one over the year and accounted for USD 112.7 bln. vs. 92.2 bln. in Q1, 97.4 bln. in Q2, and 97.7 bln. in Q3. That said, export growth rates were falling gradually vs. the respective periods of 2009: while in Q1 2010 the value volume of export was up by 61.1% vs. Q1 2009, the Q2 figure was 43.0%, Q3 – a meager 18.5%, and in Q4 – just 17.9%. This is ascribed largely to the fading low-base effect of the prior year.
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