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The Real Sector of the Economy 4.4.2. Dynamic and Structure of Production in the Oil-and-Gas Sector The rise in oil output in Russia in the early 2000s was propelled by extending opportunities for oil export, thanks to the creation of the Baltic pipeline system and the use of railroad transport in particular, as well as by intensification of development of existing fields and the oil companies greater opportunities due to the price rise for oil. Later, though, the oil production growth rates plunged substantially. While in 2002-2004 the annual oil production increase rate was 8.911%, the 20062007 figures made up just 2,1%, and the year of 2008, for the first time over recent years, saw oil production decline. That was a clear sign of exhaustion of reserves to boost the nations oil output at the expense of intensification of development of operating fields, which testifies to the need for more pro-active measures on developing new oil areas.

The growth in oil production renewed in 2009, though the increase rate was relatively low (1.2% vs. the prior year). In 2010, the increase rate accounted for 2.1% thus matching the 2005-2007 figures (Tables. 30, 31). The dynamic of oil output found itself driven by placement in operation of several new large oil fields in the north of Russias European part and in Eastern Siberia as well as by enactment of a number of amendments to the Tax Code of RF aimed at lowering the tax burden on the oil sector, encouraging a more intense development of existing fields and developing new production areas.

Table Oil Production and Refining in Russian Federation in 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Production of oil, in- 323.2 348.1 379.6 421.4 458.8 470.0 480.5 491.3 488.5 494.2 505.cluding gas condensate, mln. tn.

Primary oil refining, 173 179 185 190 195 208 220 229.0 236.3 236.0 249.mln. tn.

The share of oil refining 53.5 51.4 48.7 45.1 42.5 44.3 45.8 46.6 48.4 47.8 49.in its production, % Refining depth of petro- 71 71 70 70 71 71.6 71.9 71.7 72.0 71.9 71.leum feedstock, % Source: the Federal State Statistics Service, the RF Ministry of Energy.

Oil processing has recently grown at a pace greater than its extraction, which can be ascribed chiefly to an accelerated growth in export of oil products, which was encouraged by export duties on oil products being lower than the ones levied on crude oil. Between 2005 and 2010 (except for 2009) the annual growth rates of primary oil refining accounted for 3.2 6.2% vis--vis the annual oil output growth rates that made up 1.22.2% (except for the figures). As a result, the proportion of refined oil in oil output surged from 42.5% in 2004 to 49.4% in 2010. That, however, was still way behind the 20002001 figures: at the time, more than a half of extracted oil was supplied to refineries. Meanwhile, the processing depth has practically remained unchanged over the past decade and accounted just for 71.2% in 2010, which basically quadrates with the 2000 figure (for reference: the respective rate in the leading developed economies accounts for 90-95%). Efficacy of oil refining and quality of Russian oil products still substantially fall short of matching international standards.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Production of Oil, Petroleum Derivatives and Natural Gas in 20002010, as % to the Prior Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 Oil, including gas condensate 106.0 107.7 109.0 111.0 108.Primary oil processing 102.7 103.2 103.3 102.7 102.Petrol 103.6 100.6 104.9 101.2 103.Diesel fuel 104.9 102.0 104.7 102.0 102.Black oil fuel 98.3 104.2 107.1 100.3 97.Natural gas 98.5 99.2 101.9 103.4 101.Table 31(contd) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Oil, including gas condensate 102.2 102.1 102.1 99.3 101.2 102.Primary oil processing 106.2 105.7 103.8 103.2 99.6 105.Petrol 104.8 107.4 102.1 101.8 100.5 100.Diesel fuel 108.5 107.0 103.4 104.1 97.7 104.Black oil fuel 105.8 104.5 105.2 101.9 100.8 108.Natural gas 100.5 102.4 99.2 101.7 87.9 111.Source: the Federal State Statistics Service.

Atop the 2010 list of biggest oil producers in Russia were oil companies Rosneft, LUKOIL, -, Surgutneftegas, and Gazprom. Their aggregate share in the nations total oil output accounted for nearly 75%. Meanwhile, medium-sized oil companies (Tatneft, Slavneft, Bashneft, and Russneft) share made up 14.2%. Companies operating under PSAs produced another 2.9% of Russian oil, while the share of other oil producers (100-plus small oil extracting organizations) was 7.6% (Table 32). The proportion of state-run (belonging to the federal government) companies in the countrys total oil output amounted to 30.8%. To put this in perspective, back in 2003, before their taking over private oil companies assets, Rosneft and Gazprom combined produced only 7.3% of Russian crude.

Table Oil Produced by Various Oil Companies in 2008 Oil output in Share in total Oil output in Share in total Oil output in Share in total 2008, output, 2009, output, 2010, output, mln. tn. % mln. tn. % mln. tn. % Russia, total 488.5 100.0 494.2 100.0 505.1 100.Rosneft 113.8 23.3 116.3 23.5 112.4 22.LUKOIL 90.2 18.5 92.2 18.7 90.1 17.-BP 68.8 14.1 70.2 14.2 71.7 14.Surgutneftegaz 61.7 12.6 59.6 12.1 59.5 11.Gazprom + Gazprom neft 43.4 8.9 41.9 8.5 43.3 8. Including:

Gazprom 12.7 2.6 12.0 2.4 13.5 2. Gazprom neft 30.7 6.3 29.9 6.1 29.8 5.Tatneft 26.1 5.3 26.1 5.3 26.1 5.Slavneft 19.6 4.0 18.9 3.8 18.4 3.Bashneft 11.7 2.4 12.2 2.5 14.1 2.Russneft 14.2 2.9 12.7 2.6 13.0 2.NOVATEK 2.7 0.6 3.3 0.7 3.8 0.PSA operators 12.0 2.5 14.8 3.0 14.4 2.Other producers 24.1 4.9 26.0 5.3 38.2 7.Public companies, combined:

Rosneft + Gazprom + 157.2 32.2 158.2 32.0 155.7 30.Gazprom neft Source: the RF Ministry of Energy, authors calculations.

Section 4.

The Real Sector of the Economy Gazprom traditionally preponderated the gas production area. Meanwhile, as the decline in the national natural gas output can be chiefly ascribed to Gazproms poorer performance, the companys share in 2009-2010 slid slightly (to 77.2%) vis--vis an increasing specific weight of other producers, including oil companies, NOVATEK, PSA operators, and other producers.

The 2010 share of public (state-owned) corporations in the nations gas output accounted for 79.8% (Table 33).

Table Structure of Natural Gas Production in 2008Gas output in Share in total Gas output in Share in total Gas output in Share in total 2008, output, 2009, output, 2010, output, bln. m. % bln. m. % bln. m. % Russia, total 664.9 100.0 596.4 100.0 665.5 100.Gazprom + 553.1 83.2 466.6 78.2 513.9 77.Gazprom neft Including:

Gazprom 550.9 82.9 462.3 77.5 509.0 76.Oil companies 54.8 8.2 63.5 10.6 66.6 10.NOVATEK 30.8 4.6 32.8 5.5 37.8 5.PSA operators 8.5 1.3 18.3 3.1 23.3 3.Other producers 17.6 2.6 15.2 2.5 23.9 3.Public companies, combined:

Rosneft + Gazprom + Gaz- prom neft 566.1 85.1 484.0 81.2 531.2 79.Source: the RF Ministry of Energy, authors calculations The recently noted decline in the oil output growth rate should be ascribed to the objective deterioration of operating conditions in the first place. A considerable fraction of oil fields in Russia has entered the decollement stage, while new fields mostly display worse mining and geological conditions and geographic parameters, and their development requires greater capital, operating and transportation costs.

A drastic fall in gas production in 2009 (by 12.1% on a year-on-year basis) resulted from the drop in the domestic and external demand caused by the recession and a compulsory contraction of gas supplies to Europe in early 2009 because of the gas conflict with Ukraine. In 2010, Russias gas output caught up with its 2008 figures, but export of gas still was far below the pre-crisis level.

4.4.3. Dynamic and Structure of Export of Oil and Gas The 2010 aggregate net export of oil and oil products was on the rise against the backdrop of growth in oil production and is estimated to hit 376.6 mln. tn.. This is the historic peak for Russias oil sector. (Tables 34, 35). The specific weight of net export of oil and oil products in oil production accounted for 74.6%. That said, Russia has substantially cut oil supplies to Belarus, as the counterparts could not agree on levying the export duty on the supplies (between January and November 2010 Russian oil supplies to Belarus plunged by nearly 41% on a year-on-year basis). In 2010, oil export accounted for 49.6% of the nations oil output. The proportion of export in black oil fuel hit 90.9% between January and November 2010, and that in diesel fuel 59.4%. The 2010 export of petrol plummeted 34.2%, while the share of export of petrol in the respective output slid to 8.5% (for reference: the 1999 figure was 7.2%, the 2005 one 18.5, in 2008 12.5, and in 2009 12.6%).

Meanwhile, the year of 2010 saw a notable rise in import of oil products (up 2.4 times on a year-on-year basis) and growth in the share of import in satisfying the domestic demand. The RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks share of import in petrol resources soared from 0.6% in 2009 to 1.4% in 2010 (for reference:

in the 1st half 1998 the respective figure was 8.7%, in 2008 0.7%). The 2010 indices for diesel fuel and black oil fuel stood at 0.8 1.1%, respectively.

Table Export of Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas from Russia in Natural Equivalent in 20022010,as % on a Year-onYear Basis 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Oil, total 113.9 117.8 115.0 98.4 98.0 104.0 94.0 101.8 101.Including:

Non-CIS countries 109.9 118.9 116.3 99.1 98.0 104.8 92.6 102.9 107.CIS countries 137.3 112.4 108.3 94.9 98.0 99.4 102.6 95.4 65.Oil products, total 118.5 103.6 105.5 117.9 106.3 108.0 105.0 105.3 105.Including:

Non-CIS countries 119.1 102.6 104.9 119.1 104.5 107.6 102.0 107.1 108.CIS countries 102.8 132.3 117.9 94.6 148.8 115.3 152.2 86.8 61.Gas, total 102.4 102.0 105.5 103.7 97.6 94.6 101.8 86.2 106.* Estimated.

Source: the Federal State Statistics Service After a sizeable (by 13.8%) contraction of oil exports in 2009 caused by the fall in export gas supplies to Europe, the next year Russian gas export surged thanks to an increase in supplies to the CIS countries. However, Russian gas export has not yet hit the pre-crisis level.

Meanwhile, the specific weight of net export in gas production plummeted from 28.2% in 2008 to 25.6% in 2010.

Table Correlation between Production, Consumption and Export of Oil and Natural Gas in 20002000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Oil, mln. tn.

Production 323.2 470.0 480.5 491.3 488.5 494.2 505.Export, total 144.5 252.5 248.4 258.4 243.1 247.4 250.Export to non-CIS countries 127.6 214.4 211.2 221.3 204.9 210.9 226.Export to CIS countries 16.9 38.0 37.3 37.1 38.2 36.5 23.Net export 138.7 250.1 246.1 255.7 240.6 245.6 248.Domestic consumption 123.0 123.1 131.2 124.1 130.4 125.3 128.Net export as % to production 42.9 53.2 51.2 52.0 49.3 49.7 49.Oil products, mln. tn.

Export, total 61.9 97.0 103.5 111.8 117.9 124.4 130.Export to non-CIS countries 58.4 93.1 97.7 105.1 107.6 115.4 125.Export to CIS countries 3.5 3.9 5.8 6.7 10.3 9.0 5.Net export 61.5 96.8 103.2 111.5 117.5 123.3 128.Oil and oil products, mln. tn.

Net export of oil and oil products 200.2 346.9 349.3 367.2 358.1 368.9 376.Net export of oil and oil products, 61.9 73.8 72.7 74.7 73.3 74.6 74.as% to oil production Natural gas, bln. c.m.

Production 584.2 636.0 656.2 654.1 664.9 596.4 665.Export, total 193.8 207.3 202.8 191.9 195.4 168.4 178.Export to non-CIS countries 133.8 159.8 161.8 154.4 158.4 120.5 108.Export to CIS countries 60.0 47.5 41.0 37.5 37.0 47.9 70.Net export 189.7 199.6 195.3 184.5 187.5 160.1 170.Domestic consumption 394.5 436.4 460.9 469.6 477.4 436.3 495.Net export as % to production 32.5 31.4 29.8 28.2 28.2 26.8 25.* Estimated.

Source: the Federal State Statistics Service, the RF Ministry of Energy, the Federal Customs Service, authors calculations.

Section 4.

The Real Sector of the Economy With some growth in the proportion of oil products, the structure of Russias oil export was still dominated by export of crude, which in 2010 accounted for 66.0% of the aggregate export of oil and oil products. The bulk of the export of oil products was formed by black fuel oil, which Europeans use for further processing, and by diesel fuel. The bulk of energy resources (in 2010 as much as 90% of oil, 96% of oil products and 61% of gas) was exported to outside the CIS.

Analysis of the dynamic of Russias oil export over a long period of time evidences an increase therein of the share of oil products, whose specific weight grew from 18.2% in 1990 to 34.0 % in 2010 . (Table 36). With a drastic decline in the domestic consumption (our calculations show it plunged from 269.9 mln. tn. in 1990 to 128.5 mln. tn. in 2010), the specific weight of net export of oil and oil products in oil output increased from 47.7 to 74.6% over the period in question.

Table Net Export of Oil Products in 20022002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Net export of oil products, 74.8 78.2 81.4 96.8 103.2 111.5 117.5 123.3 128.mln. tn.

Share of oil products in net ex- 29.2 26.8 24.3 27.9 29.5 30.4 32.8 33.4 34.port of oil and oil products, % * Estimated.

Source: the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Customs Service, authors calculations.

The above data evidence a substantial intensification of the oil sectors export orientation against the pre-reform period. That said, it should be noticed that the process in question is associated not only with increase in absolute export volumes, but with a sizeable contraction in the domestic consumption of oil due to the market transformation of Russias economy, as well. In the period prior to the financial and economic crisis of 20082009 the pace of economic growth was high, while the volume of domestic consumption remained fairly stable.

This evidences a certain decline in oil intensity rate of Russias GDP.

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