4,2010 7,8 9,3 9,1 35,5 6,7 3,2 23,2009 10,1 14,2 14,3 9,0 7,8 11,9 3,0 29,2,2008 19,1 14,0 6,8 10,3 14,4 5,9 26,2,2007 17,1 15,5 9,5 4,2 21,8 5,5 24,3,2006 17,9 12,0 10,7 9,1 12,7 5,5 29,0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cyprus The Netherlands Luxemburg Germany The UK China The USA France Other countries The Source: Rosstat. The data on investments from the USA in the 2009–2010 period and those from China in the 2006–2008 period is unavailable.
Fig. 30. The geographic structure of foreign investments into the Russian Economy in the 2006–2010 period, % As of the end of December 2010, the accumulated foreign capital (without monetary regulation authorities, commercial banks and savings banks taken into account) including RUR investments calculated into US dollars amounted to USD 300.1 billion, which figure is 11.9% higher than the respective value as of the beginning of the year. From the beginning of the year, direct accumulated investments grew by 6.6% (Table 22).
In 2010, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, China and Germany account for a larger portion of the total volume of the accumulated foreign investments. The total share of the above countries amounted to 64.4% (against 66.3% in 2009). At the same time, the share of the above five leaders in the segment of other investments increased to 64.8% (against 62.9% in 2009), while in the segments of direct investments and the portfolio investments it is estimated to amount to 67.1% and 21.9%, respectively (against 69.0% and 85.1% in 2009).
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table The accumulated foreign investments by the investor-country Accumulated as of January 1, 2011, million USD.
Total Direct investments Portfolio investments Other investments Ireland 11 488 568 4 10 Germany 27 825 9 254 11 18 Japan 9 022 824 2 8 Britain 21 578 3 501 4 481 13 Cyprus 61 961 44 737 1 732 15 The Netherlands 40 383 22 401 8 17 Luxemburg 35 167 661 203 34 China 27 940 942 0.1 26 Other countries 64 742 33 311 2 479 28 Total 300 106 116 199 8 920 174 The source: Rosstat.
Other investments prevail in the structure of foreign investments accumulated as of the end of December 2010. They accounted for 58.3%. A similar index as regards direct foreign investments amounted to 38.7%.
Considering the above, it may be concluded that the situation with investments in Russia started to improve by the end of 2010. Discernable growth in the volume of the accumulated foreign capital was registered. At the same time, a drop in the influx of the direct foreign investments in the Russian economy is a negative factor. Growth in foreign investments took place due to the segment of other investments which are made on a return basis. Thanks to lower interest raters and capital injection in the economy of countries which are the main investors in the Russian Federation, foreign businessmen took greater interest in the financial business in Russia.
In 20010, growth in profits of corporations was observed which factor according to UNCTAD “along with improvements of the situation on the stock markets will create a basis for financing direct foreign investments”. Interest of global investors in developing countries is constantly growing. “In particular, Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China (BRIC countries) have good prospects of attracting direct foreign investments. In developing countries and countries with transition economy, apart from the most labor-intensive segments of the chain of creation of value, foreign investments will also be made far and wide into activities with a greater technological component”1. Thus, with taking into account the registered growth in the foreign investments in the 4th quarter of 2010 a renewal of investments flows to the Russian economy may be expected in 2011.
Taking into account a considerable growth in prices on energy carriers late in 2009 and early in 2011, a substantial volume of investments into the fuel and energy complex can be expected. In addition to the above, both the ongoing liberalization of the legislation regulating foreign investments and measures aimed at making long-term projects more attractive may motivate foreign investors to make investments in other sectors of the Russian economy as well.
UNCTAD World Investment Report 2010.
The Real Sector of the Economy 4.4. Oil-and-Gas Sector The oil-and-gas sector has continued being the cornerstone to Russia’s economy and as such it plays a pivotal role in forming the state budget revenue and the nation’s balance of trade. In 2010, it was the situation in the global oil market, the one in the European gas market, and an objective deterioration of conditions of oil and gas production, decline in output at “old” fields and a considerably greater costs of development of new ones, particularly in the undeveloped regions with no infrastructure therein, that exerted the greatest influence on the national oil-and-gas sector’s advancement.
4.4.1. The Dynamic of World Oil and Gas Prices The recovery of the global economy in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis had a determining impact on the situation on the global oil market in 2010. In 2008, on the eve of the global crisis, the world oil prices had hit an extremely high level. In July 2008, the average monthly oil prices overshot USD 130/bbl., thus hitting their historical peak, both in nominal and real terms. The main factors propelling the price rise were: an increased demand for oil fueled by high growth rates of the global economy, China, India and other Asian economies’ ones in particular, the OPEC’s conservative policy in respect to its members’ oil output, and low oil production rates outside OPEC. A serious factor that contributed to the oil price boom became a sizeable influx of speculative capital onto commodity exchange markets. In the last months of 2008, the deceleration of the global economic growth rates, decline in demand for oil in developed economies and the capital outflow from the commodity exchange markets sent global oil prices nosedive to USD 40/bbl in December 2008, ie more than thrice vis--vis their July 2008 figures (Tables 23, 26). In the conditions of a drastic downfall in world oil prices in the 2nd half 2008, in an attempt to maintain oil prices, OPEC made a number of decisions on contracting its members’ output. However, in the conditions of decline in demand for oil in the developed countries as a consequence of the already started recession those measures had no visible effect on the market. In December 2008, OPEC ruled to cut the daily oil output by 4.2 mln.bbl vs. the September 2008 level, effective as of 1 January 2009.
In 2009, the contraction in oil demand in developed countries, which was caused by the financial and economic crisis (Table 24) was compensated by soaring demand on the part of emerging economies, China in the first place, and by the OPEC countries slashing their oil output, and some other oil producing nations (Norway, UK, and Mexico) followed the move.
Over the last months of the year, the dynamic of oil prices found itself under a positive impact of renewed economic growth in the leading industrially developed nations. As a result, the world oil prices climbed from USD 40/bbl in the late-2008 up to USD 74-75/bbl in Q4 2009.
In the circumstances, at its 2009 conferences OPEC ruled to retain its members’ quotas, which had been set on1 January 2009, unchanged.
In 2010, a steady economic growth in Asia, China in the first place, as well as a renewed economic growth in the OECD nations, primarily in the US, fueled a considerable rise in the global demand for oil (Table 25). Those factors were complemented by a relatively severe weather in the Northern hemisphere in Q4 2010. Propelled by the growing global demand, the OPEC production was on the upsurge, albeit at a gradual pace. It was Nigeria and Saudi Arabia that should take the bulk of credit for the rising OPEC’s output. Overall, the 2010 OPEC’s oil output was greater than the 2009 figures, but substantially lower than the 2008 ones. Nor RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks way and UK saw their oil production at the fields in the North Sea continue to decline. Driven by the aforementioned factors, in the last months of 2010 the world oil prices left the range of USD 70-80/bbl., wherein they were over most part of the year and hit USD 90/bbl in December 2010. (Tables 26, Fig. 31). In 2010, Russia’s Urals was traded on the global (European) market at the level of USD 78/3/bbl. on the average, or up by 28.4% vs. the previous year’s level.
Table World Prices of Oil in Nominal Terms in 2000–2010., as USD/bbl.
2000 2005 2006 2007 Price of Brent, UK 28.5 54.4 65.2 72.5 97.Price of Urals, Russia 26.6 50.8 61.2 69.4 94.Price of the OPEC oil basket 27.6 50.6 61.1 69.1 94.Table 23 (cont’d) 2009 2009 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 QPrice of Brent, UK 45.0 59.1 68.4 75.0 61.Price of Urals, Russia 43.7 58.1 68.0 74.3 61.Price of the OPEC oil basket 42.9 58.5 67.7 74.3 60.Table 23 (cont’d) 2010 2010 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 QPrice of Brent, UK 76.7 78.7 76.4 86.8 79.Price of Urals, Russia 75.3 76.9 75.6 85.2 78.Source: IMF, OECD/IEA, OPEC.
Table Global Oil Consumption in 2008–2009, as % to the Respective Period of the Prior Year 2009 2009 2009 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 QThe world, total -0.6 -3.2 -2.5 -0.6 0.9 -1.OECD nations -3.6 -5.2 -6.1 -3.6 -2.9 -4. Including:
North America -5.2 -5.4 -6.1 -1.3 -1.6 -3.Europe -0.6 -2.9 -5.7 -7.1 -6.7 -5. APR -4.0 -8.5 -7.2 -3.5 0.5 -4.Non-OECD countries 3.3 -0.6 1.9 3.0 5.8 2. Including:
Asia (less Middle-East and ex-USSR countries ) 1.7 -0.8 4.8 6.7 12.5 5.Source: OECD/IEA.
Table Global Oil Consumption in 2010, as % to the Respective Period of the Prior Year 2010 2010 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 QThe world, total 2.3 3.3 3.8 3.5 3.OECD nations -1.1 1.6 3.6 1.7 1. Including:
North America 0.6 3.6 4.1 2.1 2. Europe -4.9 -1.1 2.2 1.8 -0.APR 0.9 0.6 4.8 0.4 1.Non-OECD countries 6.5 5.2 4.0 5.5 5. Including:
Asia (less Middle-East and ex-USSR countries ) 9.9 6.5 3.8 6.9 6.Source: OECD/IEA.
The Real Sector of the Economy Table Global Prices of Oil in 2010, as USD/bbl Price of Brent, UK 76.2 73.6 78.9 84.9 75.2 74.9 75.6 77.2 77.8 82.7 85.3 91.Price of Urals, Russia 76.1 72.9 76.9 82.6 73.8 74.4 73.9 75.5 77.3 81.7 84.5 89.Source: OECD/IEA, OPEC.
Source: The RF Ministry of Economic Development.
Fig. 31. Price of Urals in 2008–2010, USD/bbl.
Prices for natural gas on the global market are determined, as a rule, on the basis of prices of energy sources alternative to gas (chiefly AOD/diesel fuel, and fuel oil), which depend on world prices of oil. That is why the world prices for natural gas follow oil prices, but with a certain lag. On the European market, following the oil prices, the ones of the Russian gas likewise hit their peak value in 2008 and declined in 2009 (Table. 27).
In 2010, the gas prices were on the upsurge; however, in contrast to oil prices, if averaged over the year, they were below the 2009 figures. This can be ascribed to the impact of two factors. First, the lag between oil and gas prices determined the latter ones passing the price nadir at a moment of time later than that for oil prices. While the minimum quarterly prices for oil were noted in Q1 2009, those of gas – in Q3 2009 г (Table. 28). Second, the change of the situation on the European gas market – namely, a considerable rise in offer of gas, a size July May June April March August October January February December November September авг.окт.авг.окт.авг.окт.дек.дек.дек.сен.сен.сен.янв.янв.янв.ноя.ноя.ноя.апр.апр.апр.мар.май.мар.май.мар.май.июн.июн.июн.июл.июл.июл.фев.фев.фев.RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks able growth in LNG supplies in tandem with a lower level of spot prices for gas vis--vis prices quoted in long-term contracts drove the 2010 Russian gas prices down.
In 2009–2010, the spot gas prices on the European market were lower than the ones of the Russian pipeline gas supplied under long-term contracts (Table 29). Behind the phenomenon were a growing offer of gas, primarily by Norway and Qatar, decline in demand for gas in the conditions of the recession, and a more flexible pricing policy with regard to LNG (contract prices of pipeline gas are determined on the basis of prices of substitute fuels over previous periods, which is why they react to the market situation with a certain lag).
The EU policy on diversification of sources of energy supplies, creation the European RLNG infrastructure, and lower LNG prices in 2009-2010 have entailed a certain decline in the proportion of the Russian gas on the European gas market. According to the East European Gas Analysis, Russia’s share in gas imports from outside the EU to the European countries that hold membership i OECD plunged from 39% in 2008 to 33% in the first half 2010, while Norway’s share soared from 23 to 27%, and that of Qatar– from 2 up to 8%.
Table World Prices for Oil and Natural Gas in 2002–2010, as USD/bbl.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 The average world oil price, 24.95 28.89 37.76 53.4 64.3 71.1 97.0 61.8 79.USD/bbl The prices of Russian gas on 96.0 125.5 135.2 212.9 295.7 293.1 473.0 318.8 296.the European market, USD/ Thos. c. m.
Table Prices for Oil and Natural Gas on the European Market in 2009–2010, USD/bbl 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 QThe price of Brent, USD/bbl. 45.0 59.1 68.4 75.0 76.7 78.7 76.4 86.The prices of Russian gas on 503.5 309.6 229.8 232.2 273.2 291.4 306.5 313.the European market, USD/Thos. c. m.
Table Contract Prices of Pipeline Gas and Spot Prices of LNG in The average price of Russian pipe- 273 273 273 301 283 290 305 309 306 311 314 line gas in Europe, USD/ USD/Thos. c. m.
Spot prices of LNG in Germany, 230 214 182 194 222 237 270 255 268 287 295 USD/Thos. c. m.
Source: ОАО «Gasprom», IMF.
July May June April March August October January February December November September Section 4.
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