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Table Distribution of Organizations by the Estimated Factors Restricting Investment Activity, as % of Total Number of Organizations 2000 2009 Insufficient demand for products 10 29 Lack of their own financial resources 41 66 High interest on commercial credits 47 36 Complicated mechanism for getting credits needed for implementation of 39 19 investment projects Investment risks 35 23 Unsatisfactory technological base 18 7 Low rate of return on investments in fixed assets 8 10 Dubious economic situation in the country 49 48 Imperfect normative legal base for regulating investment processes 36 10 4.3.2. Foreign Investments Most of the year 2010 is characterized by a drop in foreign investors activities in the Russian Federation. In the investment sphere, crisis phenomena which were explicitly evident in 2009 kept prevailing in January-September 2010, while the influx of foreign investments in Russia decreased dramatically. In January-September 2010, the volume of foreign investments in the Russian economy fell by 13.2% as compared to that in the same period of 2009 and, by 46.0% as against the maximum level registered in January-September 2007. Due to substantial growth in foreign investments in the 4th quarter (a 150% increase as compared to the 4th quarter of 2009), the aggregate growth of 40.1% in foreign investments in the Russian economy as against the 2009 figure was registered (Fig. 25). At the same time, the outflow of the earlier invested capital continued. If in the 1st quarter of 2010 and the 4th quarter of 2010 the volume of the withdrawn funds (foreign investors income which was transferred abroad as well as interest payments on loans and loan repayments) was equal to the volume of foreign investments into the country in the same period, in the 2nd quarter of 2010 and the 3rd quarter of 2010 it exceeded the latter by 12.1% and 22.7%, respectively. Furthermore, in Russian investments abroad exceeded the volume of foreign investments into the Russian economy. Such trends were typical of the first half of 2010 where such an excess in the 1st quarter of 2010 and the 2nd quarter of 2010 amounted to 72.6% and 64.9%, respectively. In the 3rd quarter of 2010 and in the 4th quarter of 2010, Russian investments abroad amounted to 28.0% and 60.0% of the volume of foreign investments in Russia in the same periods, respectively. It remains to be seen if the above factor is the trends turning point.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 the aggregate volume of the foreign investment influx, % of the GDP Direct foreign investments, % of the GDP The source: Rosstat.

Fig. 25. The level of the influx of foreign investments into the Russian economy in the 20042010 period. (% of the GDP) In 2010, international rating agencies left Russias sovereign rating unchanged at the level below the pre-crisis one. At the same time, in December 2009 having registered some improvements in the Russian economy S&P, an international rating agency, raised Russias rating forecast from the negative one to the stable one and preserved the rating at the BBB investment level. In September 2010, having confirmed the current rating level the Fitch Agency upgraded the rating forecast to the positive one. According to Fitch, the Russian economy is recovering after being seriously affected by the global financial crisis. Such a change of the forecast to the positive one reflects Fitch confidence that a switchover to a more flexible foreign exchange policy, substantial repayment of the foreign debt of the private sector, stabilization of the banking sector and growth in foreign exchange reserves should contribute to a decrease in the number of factors behind the countrys financial vulnerability.

According to Moody's, another rating agency the Russias rating remains at the level of 1, while the rating forecast is stable (in the 20082009 period, unlike S&P and Fitch Moody's did not downgrade Russias rating, but cut only the rating forecast).

In 2010, foreign investments amounted to 140.1% and 105.8% as against the 2009 figure and the 2008 figure, respectively or USD 114.7 billion. (Table. 20).

In 2010, the largest growth in absolute indices (by USD 34.7 billion) was registered with the segment of other investments which were made on a return basis. Direct investments decreased by USD 2.1 billion. Such a drop took place due to a decrease in values of the following two components: contributions to the charter capital and loans from foreign co-owners of business entities. In 2010, the former fell by 3.7% to USD 7.7 billion, while the latter, by 28.4% to USD 4.6 billion. Thus, the unit weight of loans received from foreign co-owners in the structure of direct investments in the Russian Federation decreased from 40.5% in 2009 to 33.4% in 2010, while the share of contributions to the charter capital grew from 50.3% to 55.8%.

Section 4.

The Real Sector of the Economy Table The volume and structure of foreign investments in the non-financial sector of the Russian economyIn million USD. % of the previous year Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other 2006 55 109 13 678 3 182 38 249 102.7 104.6 700.0 95.2007 120 941 27 797 4 194 88 950 219.5 203.2 131.8 232.2008 103 769 27 027 1 415 75 327 85.8 97.2 33.7 84.2009 81 927 15 906 882 65 139 79.0 58.9 62.3 86.2010 114 746 13 810 1 076 99 860 140.1 86.8 121.9 153.The source: Rosstat.

According to the UNCTAD World Investment Report 2010 which was published in July 2010, as regards the volume of direct foreign investments in 2009 Russia is rated 6th in the world (it was rated 5th in 2008, 9th in 2007, 10th in 2006 and 15th in 2005). As in the previous year, among the developing countries Russia is rated 2nd after China. According to the above report, in 2009 Russia accounted for 3.5% of the global foreign investments (4.1% in 2008) and, for 8.2% of the direct foreign investments in developing countries (11.9% in 2008).

50% 39,7% 35,4% 40% 30% 22,0% 20% 11,5% 10% 0% -10% -15,7% -20% -30% -24,1% -29,5% -40% -37,1% -50% -44,4% 2007 2008 Developed countries Developing countries The world, total The source: UNCTAD World Investment Report 2010, July 22, Fig. 26. Changes in the influx of direct foreign investments in the 20072009 period.

According to UNCTAD report, decrease in the aggregate volume of the global direct foreign investments was registered from 2008 (Fig. 26). According to preliminary estimates, in 2010 the aggregate volume of the direct foreign investments is virtually at the 2009 level, while in 2011 and 2012 it is expected to amount to USD 1.31.5 trillion and USD 1.62 trillion, respectively. (Fig. 27).

Direct investments are investments in tangible assets and acquisition of a controlling interest or an interest which gives the investor the right to participate in management, while portfolio investments are investments in securities in order to receive income only; other investments are investments which are made on a return basis (loans of international financial institutions, trade loans and other).

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks -26% 1114 The average level 2007 2008 2009 2010 (evaluation) in the past three pre-crisis years (2005-2007) The source: UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor, October 14, 2010.

Fig. 27. The global influx of direct foreign investments, billion USD.

As regards the segment of portfolio investments into the Russian economy in 2010, a 21.9% growth was registered as compared to that in 2009. At the same time, a decrease in the unit weight of investments in equities and shares from 42.9% in 2009 to 32.0% (against 95.5% of the volume of portfolio investments in 2007 and 79.6% in 2008) was observed.

In 2010, other investments grew by 53.3% as compared to the 2009 figure. The share of trade loans in the structure of other investments went down from 21.4% in 2009 to 17.6% in 2010 (against 21.5% in 2008). As regards the periods the investments were attracted for, the share of loans with a term of over six months fell to 38.0% as compared to 67.9% in (68.1% in 2008). The unit weight of loans with a term of less than six months increased up to 41.3% (against 10.1% in 2009 and 8.8% in 2008).

So, as compared to 2009 the structure of foreign investments into the Russian economy did not change much in 2010 (Fig. 28).

Section 4.

The Real Sector of the Economy 100% 7% 90% 6% 80% 5% 70% 60% 4% 50% 3% 40% 30% 2% 20% 1% 10% 0% 0% Direct investments Other investments Portfolio investments The source: Rosstat.

Fig. 28. The structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy in the 19962010 period.

In 2010, priorities of foreign investors by the type of business changed dramatically; a concentration of foreign investments in industry and the financial sector was registered. In 2010, foreign investments in industry and the financial sector increased by 44.2% and 1,330%, respectively, as compared to 2009.

In 2010, investors took less interest in trade, transport and communications. In 2010, foreign investments in trade decreased by 41.2%, while those in transport and communications, by 52.4%.

Breakdown of foreign investments into the Russian economy by the type of business is shown in Table 21.

Table Breakdown of foreign investments into the Russian economy by the type of business in the 20082010 period Change, % of the previous In million USD % of the total year 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Industry 49 704 32 980 47 558 99.1 66.4 144.2 47.9 40.3 41.Transport and communications 4 861 13 749 6 576 72.5 282.8 47.8 4.7 16.8 5.Wholesale and retail trade; repair of 23 905 22 792 13 334 50.5 95.3 58.5 23.0 27.8 11.motor vehicles, motor bikes, household appliances and personal items Transactions with real property, rental 15 378 7 937 7 341 182.8 51.6 92.5 14.8 9.7 6.and other services Financial business 4 977 2 658 37 913 111.8 53.4 1426.3 4.8 3.2 33.Other industries 4 944 1 811 2 024 126.7 36.6 111.8 4.8 2.2 1.The source: Rosstat.

In 2010, in the structure of foreign investments in industry leaders of growth are manufacturing industries; as compared to 2009 investments in them grew by 49.2% (in 2009 a decrease amounted to 34.5%) (Fig. 29). Foreign investments in production of fuel and energy mineral resources increased by 43.2% (in 2009 a drop amounted to 16.0%).

In manufacturing industry, investments in production of gas carbon and petroleum products increased by 150%, while those in iron and steel industry, by 69.7%, thus amounting to USD 13.2 billion and USD 7.6 billion, respectively (in 2009 the growth in investments into Portfolio investments RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks production of gas carbon and petroleum products amounted to 63.7%, while investments in iron and steel industry fell by 68.8%). In 2010, foreign investments in chemical production increased by 41.3% to USD 2.2 billion as compared to 2009 (in 2009 a 37.6% drop in investments in that industry was registered).

4,2010 29,1 16,0 5,9 27,9 16,4,2009 31,3 13,6 7,2 16,2 26,5,2008 24,9 29,2 8,0 6,6 26,3,2007 34,7 30,4 5,8 8,7 17,6,2006 37,2 15,1 5,7 16,1 19,0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Production of primary products Chemical production Iron and steel industry Food industry Production of gas carbon and petroleum products Other industries The source: Rosstat.

Fig. 29. The breakdown of foreign investments in industry in the 20062010 period, % In 2010, both direct investments and portfolio investments in industry decreased by 7.9% and 41.6%, respectively, as compared to 2009 (in 2009 they fell by 44.1% and 41.2%, respectively). As compared to 2009, other investments in industry grew by 62.0% (in 2009 a drop of 29.5% was registered). Thus, the unit weight of all other investments in industry grew from 75.6% in 2009 to 84.9% in 2010, while in the same period the share of the direct investments and that of portfolio investments fell from 22.4% and 2.0% to 14.3% and 0.8%, respectively.

Changes in the structure of foreign investments by the type of economic activities in industry were registered. In production of primary products, direct investments kept falling and decreased by 35.9% to USD 2.0 billion. As a result, in 2010 the share of such investments in the aggregate investments in that industry fell to 14.7% (against 30.7% in 2009 and 40.2% in 2008). The share of other investments in production of primary products (in 2010 other investments grew by 70% to USD 11.8 billion) increased up to 85.0% (against 65.8% in and 59.0% in 2008).

In 2010, in manufacturing industry other investments accounted for a larger part of investments, too. As compared to 2009, such investments increased by 60% and amounted to 85.4% of all the investments in manufacturing industry in 2010 (against 80.6% in 2009). In 2010, direct foreign investments in manufacturing industry increased by 13.3%, while the unit weight of direct investments in manufacturing industry fell to 14.0% (against 18.5% in 2009).

As regards the geographic structure of foreign investments into the Russian economy in 2010, changes have taken place in the list of states which are the main exporters of the capital to the Russian Federation. In 2010, the largest volume of investments, that is, USD Section 4.

The Real Sector of the Economy 40.8 billion (35.5% of the total volume of foreign investments into the Russian economy in the above period) was received from Britain and USD 10.7 billion worth of investments, from the Netherlands. In 2010, the top three leaders as regards investments in the Russian Federation included Germany as well, which country invested USD 10.4 billion in to the Russian economy.

In 2010, investments from Britain showed the highest growth of 530% as compared to that in 2009, while investments from Ireland increased by 240%. Investments from Germany and France rose by 41.7% and 48.6%, respectively. However, investments from Luxemburg, China, Japan and the Netherlands decreased by 54.2%, 21.8%, 63.3% and 8.1%, respectively.

Differences in the dynamics of investments have resulted in changes in the geographic structure of foreign investments into the Russian economy (Fig. 30).

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