Availability of credits after stabilization in May - July at 65 per cent in August has increased to 69 per cent - the banking system has again lowered the requirements to the borrowers from the industries (see Fig. 12). In August, it has involved mainly machine building plants, whose access to credits has increased from 64 to 71 per cent. The banks and food businesses were in the same position. But the metallurgy still remained at the first place (78 per cent). The light industry is treated by the banks in the worst manner. Average minimum interest rate for ruble credits offered by the banks in August has decreased to 13.5 per cent per annum, with a normal (for the businesses) availability of credits, it was 12.5 per cent.
The ability to service existing credits in the industries has stabilized at 80 per cent (of the number of businesses with loans) from April 2010. During this period 16-19 per cent of the enterprises recognized their failure to meet liabilities to the banks. Therefore, the prevalence of bad loans (of borrowers) in the industries in general has become stable. The greatest credit risks were registered in the construction industry (31 per cent of enterprises), in light (29 per cent) and wood processing (25 per cent) industries.
Final assessments of enterprises of their real (not reporting - for tax) financial and economic standing has stabilized in the II and III quarters of 2010 (see Fig. 19). The overwhelming majority (69 per cent) of producers estimated their position as satisfactory; herewith the share of such assessments did not change during four quarters and has become very close to the middle values of this index in the pre-crisis 2007, when it made 73 per cent. Therefore, RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks the industries have definitely overcome the crisis in financial terms. In the second place by prevalence were the businesses, estimating their financial and economic standing as "bad".
They have stabilized too and averaged 21 per cent (10 per cent before the crisis). In the worst quarters of the crisis the share of these estimates increased to 36 per cent. The share of estimates "good" in the II and III quarters of 2010 has reached the crisis maximum of 9 per cent, but was too far from the average indices of 2007 (17 per cent).
In September, there were no significant positive changes in the dynamics of majority of indicators in the industries. Herewith the assessments of stocks of finished goods and recruitment policies have shown a growing uncertainty of the businesses in the future.
In September, there were no actual changes of demand for industrial products. Therefore, the stagnation of sales (growth rate does not exceed the range -3...+ 3 points) remained in the Russian industries since the beginning of the year. Prospects for growth in demand for products also improved in September as compared with August and also has not undergone significant changes against previous months of 2010. Businesses still have not seen tangible opportunities to increase sales of their products. Herewith, satisfaction with the current sales in September has decreased by 6 points, which was a modest change after the growth by 16 points within the previous two months (see Fig. 7). The industries, therefore, still remain in some hesitation about volumes of demand, which are adequate to the current economic situation.
The dynamics of assessment of stocks of finished products more and more clearly indicated, that the confidence of the businesses in the fast sales growth was getting less month by month in 2010. The share of responses "below normal" has reached in September 2010 the seven-years (!) maximum. Meanwhile, the share of responses "above normal" has reached the absolute (1992-2010 years!) minimum. As a result, the balance has decreased to 10 points after -2 and -3 points within the preceding months. It means, that the prevalence of estimates of "below normal" has become even greater in the industries. Such a low value of the balance of estimates for the reserves has not been observed in the Russian industries since 2000, when the businesses believed in the sustainability of the post-default growth and have moved from policy of minimized stocks to maintaining their abundance. In the III quarter there was observed a reverse trend in the situation development. However, there was no objective limitations for replenishment of the warehouses in the industries, some capacities were idle, there was no problem with staffing, credits became cheaper, sales volumes were low. However, the businesses need excessive stocks for quick execution of the new (unplanned) orders. Therefore, the reduction of warehouse stocks in 2010 was a deliberate policy of the Russian producers, who were losing confidence in the appearance of new customers and in soon transfer from stagnation to a noticeable increase in demand.
In general, until September the industries with extreme caution reacted to the inflationary boom, generated by the anomalous heat. The balance of the prices growth varied from +6 to +8 points (see Fig. 16).The reaction of food companies was, of course, the most expressed.
While in June – July the share of reports on unchanged prices in the industries amounted to 92-95 per cent, in September it dropped to 62 per cent, whereas the share of reports on price growth has increased from 2 to 38 per cent. But plans to change the prices indicated the desire of the businesses to recover this inflationary impulse in future. In September, pricing intentions have not changed and remained within the indices of the preceding seven months. The exception was, of course, in the food industry, which had an intention to retain high actual rate of prices growth of September in October and November.
The Real Sector of the Economy In August - September industries have nearly stopped the recruitment of personnel. The growth rate of the number of workers decreased to +3 points after + 8 points in July and +points in March - May. The businesses in spring and summer of 2010 began to create a reserve of skilled personnel in anticipation of a possible increase in demand, but the extended recovery from the crisis has forced them to suspend the process. Meanwhile, within recent months of the year, the industries planned to resume the dismissals.
The decreasing tendency of the businesses to improve productivity has become was one of the results of activation of recruiting policy in the II and III quarters of 2010. The index, calculated on the basis of changes in the plans for changes in the output staffing number, has declined to 25 per cent, whereas in the I quarter its value made 36 per cent. Those indicators can be interpreted as the share of industrial enterprises, which are ready to increase output faster than the number of employees.
In Autumn the banks continued to expand opportunities of industries crediting, but only at the expense of reducing the proposed interest rates on loans to enterprises. In September, this indicator decreased generally in the industries up to 13.2 per cent per annum in rubles against 13.7 per cent in August. The lowest rates were offered to large (over 1000 people. employees) businesses – 11.2 per cent; to small and medium businesses, in the best case, at the rate of 15.7 per cent per annum (see Fig. 20).
4.2.4. Fourth Quarter: What is Going on in the Russian Industry In October there were no significant changes in the dynamics of demand. The balance of that indicator has remained between -3...+ 3 points. Within nine consecutive months the sales growth rate differed little from zero - the stagnation of demand was sustained. Due to this circumstance, businesses have been forced to assess their scope of sales less critically. In August - September the satisfaction of demand in the Russian industries averaged 58 per cent, which became the crisis record. Demand forecasts in October remained at September's level - at the best level of the preceding nine months. The industries have maintained some hope for growth in demand, but the New Year holidays will reduce the optimism of these forecasts.
The stocks of finished products in the Russian industries continued to decline. In October the share of answers "below normal" increased to 22 per cent, resulting in the maximum level from May of 2001 (see Fig. 18). Then, in early 2001, the Russian industries have finally believed in the sustainability of post-default (and importantly - non-barter) growth in demand and have moved from policy of minimized stocks to their abundance. In the second half of 2010, the belief in the imminent restoration of the pre-crisis growth, by contrast, began to decline. It forced more and more companies to minimize their inventories of finished products against the regular levels. As a result of growth in the share of estimates "below normal" and reducing share of estimates "above normal", the balance (i.e., the difference) between them has declined in October to -12 points and has reached the 10-years minimum. Negative balances were recorded in all industrial sectors, indicating a widespread uncertainty of businesses in the early industrial growth.
Dynamics of production in October, according to the businesses’ estimates, has not undergone fundamental changes as well. The balance remained between+11... +16 points, which was sustained over eight months. Production plans of enterprises remained at the level of the crisis maximum peak. The industry has not finally parted with the hope for significant industrial growth recovery.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Low demand remained the main obstacle to the output growth, but its mentioning has considerably reduced during both, after the crisis peak in January 2009 (69 per cent), and after the III quarter of 2010 (55 per cent). In late 2010 in only 43 per cent of businesses the demand prevented increase of the output. The lack of working capital has reached the historic minimum in hindering the effect of the Russian industries output in the III quarter of 2010, when, perhaps, a modest faith in output growth has matched with the provision of its own resources and the increasing availability of bank access. In the IV quarter the frequency of this factor mentioning has increased by 5 points.
The lack of staff has undergone the strongest changes during the current crisis. Before the crisis (in the III quarter of 2008) a half of the Russian industry suffered from the lack of staff.
Afterwards, in the II and III quarters of 2009, the frequency of rate of that obstacle mentioning has increased up to 14 per cent, and to the IV quarter of 2010 it rose up to 32 per cent.
Therefore, the businesses have faced the staff deficient already at the stage of stagnation. The combination of the lack of personnel with the dynamics of employment (termination of recruitment and the intention to reduce the personnel) indicates the structural problems in the labor market and the growing prudence in personnel policies of enterprises.
Defaults of payments, which were the main fear at the beginning of the crisis, have reduced their negative impact on the Russian industries. In late 2010, their impact has fallen to 17 per cent after 41 per cent at the peak of the crisis. The imports, on the contrary, have gradually, but still very slowly recovered the impact on domestic producers. At the peak of the current crisis the restraining influence of import fell down to 13 per cent after 31 per cent in the mid-2008 (absolute maximum of all period under review). Within seven crisis quarters of 2010 the imports have already managed to win back 10 points and in the IV quarter of 2010 had interfered with 23 per cent of the businesses. We would like to note, that the default and ruble devaluation in 1998 there was a decline of negative impact of imports on the Russian industries by 3 per cent (in the III quarter of 1999 there was an absolute minimum).
Pricing policies of the businesses have undergone significant changes in October. First, the industries have demonstrated the most significant growth in prices during the current crisis.
After saving a relatively modest price growth in June - September at the rate of 8.4 points, the balance growth in October has reached 13 points. Secondly, the price forecasts of the businesses have also increased significantly in October after the seven months of gradual slowdown.
The lack of positive changes in the dynamics of demand and output has forced the businesses to stop recruitment. In October the rate the of employment growth in the industries has definitely lost its positive indicators, but have not yet turned negative: recruitment has apparently ceased, but substantial layoffs have not started yet. However, the plans of enterprises indicated a high probability of the sustained negative trends in the dynamics of employment.
The balance of the expected changes in the number of employees as a result of the sevenmonth decline has become definitely negative, became negative and the worst in 2010 (see Fig. 8).
In November, the surveys have registered positive signals from Russia's industries, while maintaining a number of negative factors. The growth in demand and output continued, the forecasts of these indicators remained at the peak of the crisis. Changes in the estimates of stocks of finished products have demonstrated the readiness of the businesses to the larger increase in demand. Anyway, the acceleration of price growth rates and expectations of intenSection 4.
The Real Sector of the Economy sive growth of costs (most likely due to increased insurance deductions) should have a negative impact on sales. The dynamics in the availability of credit has been reduced.
Материалы этого сайта размещены для ознакомления, все права принадлежат их авторам.
Если Вы не согласны с тем, что Ваш материал размещён на этом сайте, пожалуйста, напишите нам, мы в течении 1-2 рабочих дней удалим его.