The dynamic growth of end consumption sustained by increasing real incomes of the population was one of the main factors that determined the upward development of the Russian economy over the period of 2000 – 2008. While households’ end consumption over that peSection 4.
The Real Sector of the Economy riod increased 1.91 times, the population’s real incomes rose 2.23 times, real wages – 2.times, and the real size of allocated pensions – 2.22 times.
The 2009 crisis had a painful effect on the population’s living standards and resulted in a deeper downfall relative to the previous period than that during the 1998 crisis. While the rate of growth of the population’s real incomes in 2009 was at the level of 1.9 %, that of end consumption dropped on 2008 by 5.4 %, including end consumption by households – by 8.9 %. It should be noted that the changes occurring in the index of households’ consumption was significantly influenced by the decline of real wages by 3.5 % by comparison with the level, while the growth rate of wages in nominal terms displayed its historic low since 1998 – 7.8 %.
20,15,10,5,0,I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 2010 2008 2009 -5,-10,-15,households’ expenditures expenditures on state administration gross domestic product end consumption costs Source: Rosstat.
Fig. 4. Changes in End Consumption Costs in GDP by Component in 1998–2010 and by Quarter in 2008–2010, as % of Relevant Period In 2010, the main indices describing the population’s living standards acquired positive values, but one should bear in mind when estimating those values the effect of the low baseline provided by the previous year’s level. Judging by the results of the year 2010, the cost of end consumption relative to the previous year’s level rose by 2.1 %, including that by households – by 2.7 %, but the corresponding values actually amounted to only 98.7 % and 97.8 % of the 2008 index. The growth of real incomes of the population in 2010 amounted to 4.1 % as compared to the previous year’s rate and to 6.4 % as compared to 2008 (over the period of 2004–2008 the average per annum growth rate was 13.4 %). The specific features of the formation of the population’s incomes were determined by the accelerating growth of social RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks benefits allocated within the framework of the government programs aimed at sustaining the population’s living standards. Within the structure of the population’s incomes the share of social benefits rose from 13.2 % in 2008 to 14.9 % in 2009 and to 18.0 % in 2010. The average size of allocated pensions over the period of 2009 – 2010 increased 1.78 times (in real terms –1.5 times). Changes in the size of wages took a milder character. The growth of real wages in 2010 by 4.2 %, however, made it possible to neutralize the negative trends of the previous year and to achieve the 2008 level.
In 2010, retail turnover rose by 4.4 %, including that of foodstuffs – by 5.1 %, and that of nonfood commodities – by 3.8 %.
The consumer price index in 2010 amounted to 108.8 %, thus remaining at the previous year’s level. At the same time, the prices of foodstuffs rose to 112.9 % against 106.1 % in 2009, and those of nonfood commodities – to 105.0 % against 109.7 % (Fig. 4).
4.1.3. Changes in the Structure of GDP, by Source of Income A dynamic growth of the population’s incomes represents one of the typical features of economic growth in the Russian economy. The activity on the domestic market is sustained by growth of real wages and is associated with redistribution of incomes from companies to the population. The share of wages in GDP rose to 52.8 % in 2009 and to 50.2 % in against its mean index of 46.1 % recorded over the period of 2002 – 2008 (Table 5).
Table Structure of GDP Formation, by Source of Income in 2008 – 2009, as % of Result, in Current Prices 2008 2009 Q Q Per annum Per annum Per annum I II III IV I II III IV Gross domestic 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 product Including:
Wages of hired 46.7 52.8 56.9 53.3 47.9 50.1 50.2 52.1 50.1 48.1 50.labor, including hidden remuneration and mixed incomes Net taxes on produc- 19.2 16.7 14.3 15.6 17.4 17.8 18.1 17.5 18.4 17.0 19.tion and imports Gross profit in the 34.1 30.5 28.8 31.1 34.7 32.1 31.7 30.4 31.5 34.9 30.economy and gross mixed incomes Source: Rosstat.
Within the structure of employed population the share of persons who were not working under employment contracts constituted only 8 %; these are employers who employ labor force at their own enterprises on a permanent basis; and self-employed persons. This phenomenon determined the specificity of the formation of the structure of GDP incomes and the population’s incomes. More than 66 % of the population’s incomes in 2010 was formed by wages paid to the employed, while the share of incomes from entrepreneurial activity and property was shrinking.
A typical feature of Russia’s national economy has become a high degree of differentiation of mean wages by type of economic activity. In industry, the degree of differentiation of wages is determined by an increasing gap between the levels of wages in the extracting and Section 4.
The Real Sector of the Economy processing industries. In 2010, the amount of wages charges in nominal terms in the sector of extraction of mineral resources was 1.8 times higher than the average level of wages across the entire economy, including in the sector of fuel extraction by 2.2 times. Wages in the processing industries amounted to 90 % of the economy’s average and 45 % of the index recorded in the extracting industries. The mean value of the index of charged wages was exceeded 2.times in the sectors associated with the production of petroleum products and transportation of mineral fuel and energy resources, as well as in the financial sector. In the spheres of education and public health care wages dropped to 66 – 76 % of the economy’s average. The specific forms of remuneration depending on types of economic activity had a significant influence on the structure of incomes and expenditures, on the population’s consumer demand, on the type of employment and the distribution of labor resources across the economy.
The level and share of remuneration received by hired labor in the structure of GDP had a dominating effect on the social parameters, including the labor market. In the crisis conditions of 2009 the number of the employed in the economy dropped to 69.4 mln persons against 70.mln persons in 2008, resulting in a climb of the rate of total unemployment to 8.4 % against 6.4 %.
The year 2010 saw a continuation of the implementation of anti-crisis measures aimed at supporting the labor market. A total of 39.5 bn Rb was allocated from the federal budget to subsidies granted to the budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation so that they could lower the level of tension on their labor markets within the framework of regional programs. In 2010, as compared to 2009, the number of employed in the economy rose by 0.4 mln, thus amounting to 69.8 mln persons. The level of unemployment, as demonstrated by the results of the year 2010, dropped to 7.5 % against 8.4 % one year earlier, while the overall number of unemployed (as estimated by the ILO methodology) amounted to 5.6 mln against 6.3 mln in 2009. The number of unemployed who were officially registered with government employment agencies slid to 2.2 mln, while the level of registered unemployment became 2.5 % against 3.0 % in early 2010. The improvement of the general situation in the national economy was associated with a stable downward trend displayed by the number of those employed persons who worked part-time, were kept on leave or idle – their number decreased from 1.6 mln in January 2010 to 0.9 mln in November 2010.
The tension coefficient (the number of unemployed persons registered with government employment agencies per 100 vacancies) between January and November 2010 decreased from 310.6 to 177.3 (Table 6).
Table Dynamics of the Main Labor Market Indicators in 2009 – Q Q 2009 I II III IV I II III IV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of employed in national economy, 69.4 68.2 69.4 70.4 69.5 69.8 68.0 70.0 71.1 70.mln Number of unemployed, mln 6.3 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.6 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.Level of unemployment, as % of economi- 8.4 9.1 8.6 7.8 8.0 8.8 8.8 7.4 6.8 6.cally active population Number of unemployed, registered with 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.government employment service, mln Level of registered unemployment, as % of 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.economically active population Average monthly wages of organizations’ 18,785 17,441 18,419 18,673 20,626 21,090 19,485 20,809 21,031 23,employees, in nominal terms, Rb RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table 6 (continued) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 as % of relevant period of previous year Number of employed in national economy 97.8 97.7 97.1 97.9 98.7 100.6 99.6 101.0 101.0 100.Number of unemployed 131.1 134.8 152.1 132.2 112.0 89.1 96.3 86.7 87.2 85.Number of unemployed, registered with 148.0 126.5 157.4 163.0 153.2 90.0 114.2 91.1 81.0 74.government employment service, mln Average monthly wages of organizations’ 108.5 112.8 108.0 105.7 108.1 111.3 110.5 112.4 111.6 110.employees, in nominal terms Average monthly wages in real terms 97.2 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.0 104.2 103.1 106.1 105.1 102.Source: Rosstat.
It is noteworthy that, while in the period of 2000 – 2008 changes in the demand for labor were determined by a shift in employment towards the services sector, during the 2009 crisis the most critical situation was observed in trade, as well as in industry and construction. In recent years employment was on the decline in nearly all the branches of industry, with the most rapid rates of decline in the processing industries. If in 2008 the number of employed in the processing industries dropped on 2004 by 596 thousand, and in the extraction of mineral resources sector – by 44 thousand, in 2009 the drop on the previous year in the average per annum number of employed amounted to 806 thousand and 44 thousand respectively. The formation of that trend occurred against the backdrop of a declining growth rate of labor productivity (Table 7).
Table Changes in Labor Productivity in the National Economy of the Russian Federation, as % of Previous Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 On the whole, across national economy 107.0 106.5 105.5 107.5 107.5 104.8 95.Including:
Agriculture, hunting and forestry 105.6 102.9 101.8 104.3 105.0 110.7 105.Fishery and fish-breeding 102.1 104.3 96.5 101.6 103.2 95.5 109.Extraction of mineral resources 109.2 107.3 106.3 103.3 103.1 101.0 107.Processing industries 108.8 109.8 106.0 108.5 108.4 102.6 96.Production and distribution of electric energy, 103.7 100.7 103.7 101.9 97.5 102.1 96.gas and water Construction 105.3 106.8 105.9 115.8 112.8 109.1 91.Wholesale and retail trade 109.8 110.5 105.1 110.8 104.8 108.1 92.Hotels and restaurants 100.3 103.1 108.5 109.2 108.0 109.2 87.Transport and communications 107.5 108.7 102.1 110.7 107.5 106.5 100.Operations with immovable property, lease and re- 102.5 101.3 112.4 106.2 117.1 107.9 96.lated services For reference: 110.9 110.6 112.6 113.3 117.2 111.5 96. real wages Source: Rosstat.
The low effect of the use of production factors was one of the main caused of the decline in the Russian economy’s competitive capacity. A negative influence on the qualitative indices of economic development was exerted by the considerable gap between the rate of labor productivity and the level of remuneration in favor of the latter, which was visible across the entire economy even in crisis conditions. However, opportunities for any further growth in the level of remuneration became rather severely restricted as a result of a changed competitive environment on the commodity markets due to the strengthening of the ruble and a similarly increasing pressure of imports.
The Real Sector of the Economy A comparison between changes in the indices of the population’s employment rate, remuneration level and GDP has demonstrated that an accelerated growth of wages against a slower growth of labor productivity increased the load on the economy and was reflected in the results of financial activity.
Positive changes in the economy improved the financial status of businesses. As shown by operative data, in January – September 2010 they achieved a positive aggregate financial result in the amount of 4,305.5 bn Rb, which is by 51.7 % higher than the same index for the previous year. However, despite the presence of some positive trends, the pre-crisis rate of return indices have not yet been achieved for the entire national economy. The rate of return on sold commodities, products and work, as seen by the results of January – September 2010, was 11.6 %. Production decline and other manifestations of the crisis had different inmplications depending on the type of activity, and so development in 2010 was uneven and had certain specificities. The most profitable type of activity in January – September 2010 remained the extraction of mineral resources.
The favorable situation on the world market for energy carriers make it possible for the companies operating in that sector to receive, in January – September 2010, an aggregate positive financial result in the amount of 959.4 bn Rb, which is by 45 % higher than the same index for the previous year. The financial situation of the businesses operating in the processing industries also improved: as seen by the outcome of the period of January – September 2010, their aggregate financial result was 1,134.6 bn Rb, which is by 59.7 % higher than the previous year’s level.
Due to instability of the business activity in the construction sector, the aggregate financial result for January – September amounted to 49.7 bn Rb, or only 80.7 % of the value of the same index for 2009.