The causes of the weak level of direct investment funds in Russia are shown in the results of a survey among global investors of 72 private equity funds, performed by international audit company KPMG from December 2008 through February 2009 3. To the question whether Russia looks more attractive to you than other BRIC countries, 58% of respondents gave a negative answer. Among the main reasons preventing the transactions of these funds in Russia in 2009-2010, investors mentioned: macroeconomic instability - 89% of the respondents, legal / regulatory constraints - 30%; unrealistic price expectations of vendors (from the English. vendor - dealer, trader) - 23% political risk - 16%, the lack of qualified managers - 16%.
One has only to add that the market for private equity deals is currently being "monopolized" by large oligarchic corporations, which makes entry into it independent of market structures, including the largest global private equity funds that artificially restrain competition in this area and attraction of foreign advanced technologies.
With respect to private equity investment funds, the prospects for their development are in doubt yet. In accordance with the law on private investment funds, any information on mutual funds as private equity funds that are intended only to qualified investors at the end of 2009, ceased to be public. As required by Federal Financial Markets Service of Russia, stock exchanges establish specialized sections of trades for qualified investors, the members of which will have an access to information on these funds.
In this situation, it is unclear what information will be available on existing and new equity mutual funds to potential investors who do not have the status of "qualified", including foreign investors. These funds were out of view of analysts and experts from academic institutions. In our opinion, artificially imposed by Russian Federal Financial Markets Service information barriers on the activities of mutual funds of direct investments will only lead to a sharp decline in interest in them to potential investors, which will negatively affect the development prospects of these funds in Russia.
Currently in the country, according to the Ministry of Education and Science, there registered more than 80 technological parks, and even more - innovation and technology centers, more than 100 technology transfer centers, 10 national innovation and analytical centers, centers of scientific and technical information, more than 120 business incubators, 15 centers of innovation consulting, as well as other organizations of the innovation infrastructure. Such abundance of innovative structures is difficult to accept as reasonable. Further development of A. Golovin Direct investments are dying. Finance, № 27-28 (310-311), 27.07.-16.08.2009.
To date, according to requirements of FSFR of Russia PIFs direct investments are assigned to the category of funds for qualified investors, whose advertising in banned. Due to this fact, public information resources on PIFs www.nlu.ru и www.investfunds.ru stopped publishing statistics on this category of PIFs.
.A. Golovin Direct investments are dying. Finance, № 27-28 (310-311), 27.07.-16.08.2009.
Financial Markets and Financial Institutes innovation requires the establishment of centralized structures with their regional representatives, who would have assumed responsibility for coordinating the efforts of numerous structures on promotion the advancement of new technologies in the economy, as well as for disclosure of information about opportunities for business innovation organizations in different fields.
3.8. Impact of the crisis on the system of domestic savings To maintain high growth and modernization rates of the Russian economy should maintain a high domestic savings rates. However, if the savings rate in Russia is relatively high and second only to individual countries in the Asian region, the rate of savings, i.e., investment in fixed assets and inventory are significantly lower than in many developing and developed countries. Fig. 47 shows the rate of savings in Russia in 1995-2010.
36,32,31,30,30,30,30,28,30 28,27,27,28,22,25,21,25,24,23,19,22,21,21,20,21,20,20,20,18,18,15,14,1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 total accumulation % to GDP Total savings, % to GDP Source: estimates based on the Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 47. The rate of savings in Russia in 1995-2010 years,% of GDP The difference between the rate of savings and accumulations from year to year is 5-percentage points The main reason for the fact that a part of domestic savings in the country turns into a real capital, lies in the fact that the bulk of the surplus savings falls into sovereign funds, which are located abroad. This is a forced phenomenon, because at present the Russian financial system is incapable to ensure the level of development of financial institutions and investment climate in the country, these provisions make it work for economic growth and modernization. The system itself needs to be modernized, acquiring new knowledge and skills. This problem should be the focus when developing a new long-term strategy development for the period up to 2020. In addition, the accumulation of these funds should be implemented to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external economic conditions.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Other reserve growth stocks is to increase the savings rate of households. According to official statistics, Russia's Federal State Statistics Service of households are saving 14-15% of their income (see Fig. 48). In the leading countries in economic growth and modernization of the rate of household savings to disposable income is much higher. According to the information resource Euromonitor International, the average for 2000-2009, in Singapore, it made 33.9%, in China - 31.9%, in Hong Kong - 30.7%, in India - 30,1%. Social and demographic situation in these countries, of course, different from Russia, but it must be recognized that any large-scale modernization involves reliance on domestic financial resources. Besides, the high rate of consumption in Russia in the current environment actually means stimulating the expense of domestic demand by foreign manufacturers.
We are not talking about enforcement measures to improve the savings rate of the population. To accomplish this, as well in the case of the reserves of the state, we need effective financial institutions and reducing inflation. This problem was hardly solved in previous years, as evidenced by the Table. 9.
Table A summary of the development level of institutional investors in Russia The share of assets, % of The number of GDP countries in the Russia's place sampleICI1 and in the samples average OECD for2000–Assets of the open-ended investment funds* 45 44 0.3 0.Reserves of private pension funds** 47 43 1.0 1.Assets of insurance companies*** 32 32 1.0 1.*Russia - open and interval mutual funds.
**Russia - NPFRossiya - NPFreserves ***Russia - insurance provisions Against those countries where there is domestic stock market, Russia is the only country that is a world outsider in terms of development of all three forms of collective investments.
Among 45 countries, for which statistics is kept on the assets of open-ended investment funds, Russia has occupied the 44 seat; according to the criterion of the relative level of development of private pension funds, It is the 43-th place out of 47 countries; assets of insurance companies - 32 place out of 32 countries. In 2010 the share of assets of open and interval mutual funds to GDP in Russia was 0.3%, reserves NPF – 1.4%, the assets of insurance companies - about 1.1%. This suggests that in Russia, there is almost no working mechanism of savings through institutional investors. In contrast to all other countries, in the world of the main ways of saving the Russian population are housing and bank deposits.
Therefore, in order to increase the rate of accumulation, it is necessary, on the one hand, gradually to build new and modernize old institutions of development, ensuring that they receive current knowledge, investment, technology, skills and technologies, as well as to achieve real progress on improving the business climate. On the other hand, it is necessary to establish the financial mechanism, which would create real incentives for people to voluntarily increase the savings rate by limiting the consumption and export of savings abroad. To this end, it is necessary to create a technologically effective system of private pension funds, based on corporate pension plans and individual investment (retirement) accounts, to achieve Investment Company Institute.
Financial Markets and Financial Institutes a lower cost per square meter of housing under construction through the elimination of administrative corruption and rent, and encourage competition among the construction companies, to make available to the public mortgage credits, when the purpose of principal repayment and servicing for individuals will be no more than 30% of their monthly income.
Fig. 48 analyzes various indicators of population trend to save. The overall rate of household savings is assessed on the basis of published Rosstat balance income and expenditures.
These savings include the increase (decrease) in ruble and foreign currency bank deposits of population, purchase of securities, changes in the accounts of individual entrepreneurs, the change in the debt of individuals on credits, real estate acquisition. This rate increased from 7.6% of household income in 2000 to 14.7% in 2010.
If these articles of savings are replenished with additional disclosed by Russian Statistical Service item of purchasing foreign currency and growth of cash rubles kept by the population, then we obtain the total rate of savings and cash growth with population. This savings rate increased from 16.8% in 2000 to 20.2% in 2010. The determined by us estimated rate of savings in financial assets consist of the increase (decrease) in ruble and foreign currency bank deposits, purchase of securities from the population, growth (decrease) in reserves of foreign currency and rubles cash on hand, changes in the debts on personal loans. This savings rate fell from 8.8% in 2000 to 8.4% in 2010. Finally, the estimated rate of aggregate savings includes savings in financial assets and purchase of real estate. This indicator increased from 10.0% in 2000 to 16.9% in 2010.
Source: Estimates based on data from the Bank of Russia and the Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 48. Disposition of population to save in 1998-2010,(% of income) Structure of financial savings in financial assets is shown in Fig. 49. Crisis of 2008-has significantly changed the structure of citizens' savings. At the beginning of the crisis in 2008, inspired by the sharp fall in equity prices and the devaluation of the ruble, population has reduced the amount of the stored rubles and even reduced the ruble-denominated savings deposits in the banks. At the same time, cash reserves and deposits in foreign currency have RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks significantly increased. With the decrease of the devaluation and the resumption of the ruble significant growth in the ruble bank deposits, decreased propensity to save in the form of foreign currency deposits and foreign currency. In 2010, the main form of household savings were denominated bank deposits, constituting 7.6% of population income.
а) Bank deposits in RUR b) Bank deposits in foreign currency v) Securities of Russian emitters g) Rubles in cash d) Foreign currency in cash е) Additional savings (growth of credits to individuals 1,0,0,11,1,4,2,0 3,8 1,7 1,3,1,2,8 1,2,1,9 0,4,0,1,1,4,0,1,2,2,8 0,6 0,8 0,1,8 1,0,0,0,8 0,1,1 1,0,7 1,0,1,7 1,3 1,2,4 1,7 0,0,5 7,1,6,6,1,1,1 1,1,4,2 4,1 4,3,3,1,2,3,2,2,2,1,2 0,-0,2 -0,1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -0,4 -0,9 -0,-2 -0,9 -0,-0,-1,-1,-1,-2,9 -5,-4 -4,-5,-4,-Source: Estimates s per Central Bank and the Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 49. Disposition to save in financial assets in 1997-Unlike bank deposits and real estate investments, other forms of savings do not work in fact. Propensity to save in securities, even during the crisis has not significantly changed and remains at a low level of 0.3-0.5% of population income. The main reason for this situation is not that the Russian stock market is excessively volatile, but that people do not trust the financial institutions that provide non-banking investment services.
The financial crisis has not changed the investment quality of shares. Shares of the Russian companies, along with real estate investments, now remain the only investment assets in the domestic market, which bring a positive real rate of return to long-run investments. According to our estimates, the average annual real return on investments in equity portfolio of the RTS index for 2000-2010 is amounted to 25.4% per annum in residential real estate in Moscow (index IRN) 8,3%. Unchanged after the crisis are the parameters of maximum, minimum and average nominal yield of the portfolio of the RTS index for different investment horizons.
Fig. 50 shows the portfolio returns of different maturity during the period from September 1995 through December 2009. For comparison, the dashed lines show similar curves for the period from September 1995 to July 2008, i.e., prior to the latest financial crisis.
The most risky of an investment portfolio are the investments in the RTS index for the term of one year. Over 16 years under review, the maximum return on this portfolio amounted to 363% per annum, and the worst result was the reduced cost of the portfolio by 91%. On average, over the entire period of investments in the annual portfolio, there were brought 45% per annum. As can be seen on the chart, as prolongation of the average annual investment yield of the portfolio got stabilized, the gap between the worst and the best results in portfoIn % to revenues Section 3.
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