Table Base case 2010 2011 2012 1 2 3 4 Oil prices (Urals, in $/bbl) 78,2 81,0 83,0 84,Real GDP growth rate, % 4,00 2,80 2,90 2,GDP in nominal terms (RUR Billion) 44491 50183 55702 GDP ($MM) 1465 1707 1934 Investment surplus into fixed capital, % 6,00 3,90 3,50 2,Surplus of real income of the population, % 4,30 3,00 2,90 2,Federal budget revenues (% of GDP) 18,65 18,80 18,70 18,Federal budget expenditures (% of GDP) 22,67 21,24 20,18 19,Surplus (+) /deficit (–) of federal budget (% of GDP) –4,02 –2,44 –1,48 –1,Exports ($billion) 398,0 411 422 Imports ($ billion) 248,8 313 359 Trade balance ($ billion) 149,2 97 63 Balance of current accounts ($ billion) 72,6 42 13 –Balance of capital transactions ($ billion) –30,5 0,0 15,0 30,Balance of payments ($ billion) 36,8 37,3 22,6 7,External debt of the private sector ($ billion) 436,1 440,0 450,0 490, RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks (continued) table 1 2 3 4 Debt/GDP ratio, % 29,8 25,8 23,3 23,International reserves ($ billion) 479,4 522 549 Nominal exchange rate RUR/USD 30,36 29,40 28,8 Nominal exchange rate RUR/EURO 40,27 38,22 37,44 37,Index of the real effective ruble exchange rate (July 1998 = 100) 122,6 134,0 141,8 145,CPI growth rate, % 8,8 8,1 6,8 6,Reserve funds growth rate, % 26,64 17,33 16,04 14,М2 growth rate, % 28,51 19,09 20,68 18,Monetization (М2/GDP), % 45,3 47,9 52,0 56,National debt (% of GDP) 8,8 11,5 12,8 13,Table Optimistic case 2010 2011 2012 Oil prices (Urals, in $/bbl) 78,2 100,0 102,0 104,Real GDP growth rate, % 4,00 3,20 3,80 4,GDP in nominal terms (RUR Billion) 44491 51218 58186 GDP ($MM) 1465 1742 2020 Investment surplus into fixed capital, % 6,00 4,50 5,00 5,Surplus of real income of the population, % 4,30 3,50 3,50 4,Federal budget revenues (% of GDP) 18,65 19,40 19,60 19,Federal budget expenditures (% of GDP) 22,67 20,81 19,31 18,Surplus (+) /deficit (–) of federal budget (% of GDP) –4,02 –1,41 0,29 1,Exports ($billion) 398,0 460 473 Imports ($ billion) 248,8 316 368 Trade balance ($ billion) 149,2 144 106 Balance of current accounts ($ billion) 72,6 89 56 Balance of capital transactions ($ billion) -30,5 0,0 15,0 30,Balance of payments ($ billion) 36,8 84,2 65,5 35,External debt of the private sector ($ billion) 436,1 440,0 450,0 490,Debt/GDP ratio, % 29,8 25,3 22,3 21,International reserves ($ billion) 479,4 569 639 Nominal exchange rate RUR/USD 30,36 29,40 28,8 28,Nominal exchange rate RUR/EURO 40,27 38,22 37,44 37,Index of the real effective ruble exchange rate (July 1998 = 100) 122,6 134,2 142,7 149,CPI growth rate, % 8,8 8,3 7,3 6,Reserve funds growth rate, % 26,64 22,67 16,71 15,М2 growth rate, % 28,51 24,51 23,71 19,Monetization (М2/GDP), % 45,3 49,0 53,4 57,National debt (% of GDP) 8,8 9,3 8,5 8,Table Budget expansion case 2010 2011 2012 1 2 3 4 Oil prices (Urals, in $/bbl) 78,2 100,0 102,0 104,Real GDP growth rate, % 4,00 3,10 3,60 4,GDP in nominal terms (RUR Billion) 44491 51452 58883 GDP ($MM) 1465 1750 2045 Investment surplus into fixed capital, % 6,00 4,20 4,50 4,Surplus of real income of the population, % 4,30 3,90 3,90 4,Federal budget revenues (% of GDP) 18,65 19,40 19,40 19,Federal budget expenditures (% of GDP) 22,67 24,80 23,55 24,Surplus (+) /deficit (–) of federal budget (% of GDP) –4,02 –5,40 –4,15 –5,Exports ($billion) 398,0 460 473 Imports ($ billion) 248,8 319 377 Trade balance ($ billion) 149,2 141 95 Balance of current accounts ($ billion) 72,6 86 45 Balance of capital transactions ($ billion) –30,5 0,0 0,0 0,Balance of payments ($ billion) 36,8 80,5 40,1 –2,External debt of the private sector ($ billion) 436,1 440,0 450,0 460,Section 2.
Monetary-Credit and Budgetary Spheres (continued) table 1 2 3 4 Debt/GDP ratio, % 29,8 25,1 22,0 20,International reserves ($ billion) 479,4 565 610 Nominal exchange rate RUR/USD 30,36 29,40 28,8 Nominal exchange rate RUR/EURO 40,27 38,22 37,44 37,Index of the real effective ruble exchange rate (July 1998 = 100) 122,6 134,9 144,8 150,CPI growth rate, % 8,8 8,9 8,3 7,Reserve funds growth rate, % 26,64 22,05 20,08 20,М2 growth rate, % 28,51 21,40 17,63 18,Monetization (М2/GDP), % 45,3 47,6 48,9 51,National debt (% of GDP) 8,8 13,0 16,9 21,Under the base case, the quantitative values of the main indicators of the social and economic development of Russia and the monetary sector show that the positive growth rates of real GDP will not exceed 3% by the end of 2013. By the end of 2013, the real GDP of Russia will exceed the level of 2008 by 4.3% only. In 2013, the per capita GDP (at the current exchange rate) with account of the growth of the ruble exchange rate and the forecasted reduction of the population is going to exceed the 2008 level by approximately 20%.
The economy will revive due to stable oil prices (in the comfortable range for Russia) and the renewed inflow of foreign capital thus ensuring financing of the investment demands of the Russian companies. As for investments into fixed capital, the recession will not be overcome by the 2013 end. In 2013, the investments into fixed capital will reach 98.3% vs the 2008 figure. At the same time, in 2011 – 2013, the real incomes of the population are going to increase by approximately 15.9% vs the pre-crisis level.
We assume that the oil prices will be within a sufficiently “comfortable” range (that would not trigger a currency or a financial recession) but not in the best range possible, and therefore the national financial situation will remain tense, under this case. Assuming that the nominal federal expenditures are kept at the level set by Federal Law “On the federal budget for and for the planning period of 2012 and 2013”, the budget deficit is likely to remain in the entire period of consideration. The Reserve Fund can support financing of the budget deficit in 2011 only.
We do not suggest using NWF funds to finance the budget deficit, and believe NWF will accumulate funds worth about 5% of GDP.
One of the most important assumptions for restoring the positive growth rate of real investments into fixed assets and the GDP real growth is that Russian companies and banks will return to the world capital market, and the inflow of direct foreign investments into Russia will be sustained. According to the estimates made, to support the set rates of investment growth, a stable net flow of private foreign investments into Russia should start not later than 2012 and reach $15 – 30 billion per year.
We forecast, for the reviewed period, that the services negative balance will go up as well as payments balance for production factors and interest payments. Accordingly, in 2013 we expect a negative current accounts balance of $15 – 20 billion in Russia.
As we assume that the RF Central Bank while moving to inflation targeting policy reduces its presence on the currency market, the Bank of Russia will accumulate its international reserves but very slow. By the end of 2013, according to our estimates, the reserves will reach $550 – 600 billion – this is below the maximum levels of 2007 – 2008.
Before 2013, the positive payment balance (in 2011 – 2012 due to the positive balance of the current accounts while in 2013 – due to the capital inflow) will support a stable exchange RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks rate of the ruble currency in the currency basket (we believe that in the bi-currency basket, USD and EURO ratio remains at 0.55:0.45). In such case, a change of the USD/EURO ratio may be triggered by a change in mutual quotations of the reserve currencies on the world market. As a result of a softer influence of the Bank of Russia on the exchange rate, the growth of ruble volatility vs USD and EURO currencies would not be reflected in the summary annual exchange rate values as the differently directed fluctuations absorb each other.
Simultaneously, the reduction of the annual CPI growth rates to 6.0 – 6.5% will obviously slow down the rates of the real strengthening of the ruble currency. In particular, by the end of 2013, the real effective rate of the ruble will strengthen by 20% vs the mid of 2008 or by 25% vs the end of 2008. We expect that the positive dynamics of the Russian exports against stagnation of world prices on raw materials will be maintained. Imports will grow faster than exports during the considered period and will exceed the record breaking values of 2007 as early as in 2011.
The model predicts serious changes in the monetary sector of the Russian economy. As mentioned before, the model demonstrates a visible slow down of inflation.
Secondly, the change of the monetary policy by the Bank of Russia means that the Bank will expand transactions on the market of state securities (prompted by necessity to finance the federal budget deficit not only by the Reserve Fund or external borrowings) and will actively re-finance commercial banks against securities (e.g. corporate bonds) bought for the Bank portfolio and issue credits secured by pledge to commercial banks for long terms (at least for one year).
As a consequence of such change of the main fiscal tools, real interest rates in the economy must grow. Thus, real interest rates for credits issued to a non-financial private sector for up to one year will fall within the range 1.5–2.0% in 2011–2013. We expect the growth of a monetary multiplier up to 2.6 – 2.7% (M2/reserve money). In other words, the bank sector is going to resume its credit expansion most actively as it was before the 2008 crisis.
Summarizing the base case, the following characteristics should be outlined:
1. The real GDP volume will be restored up to the pre-crisis level by the end of 2012 only;
the volume of real investments will not return to the 2008 indicators;
2. Russian companies will come back to the world capital markets;
3. An obligatory transition to new mechanisms of security of the monetary supply of the RF Central Bank, and the growth of real money value in the economy will occur;
4. The conditions for keeping the federal budget deficit, the full use of the Reserve Fund and an extremely slow accumulation of funds in the NWF will be maintained;
5. Inflation rates will obviously fall down against strengthening of the real effective rate of the ruble currency and high growth rates of the monetary stock and monetization of the Russian economy.
The optimistic case provides for increase of average oil prices (Urals) up to 100 $/bbk in 2011 and 102-104 $/bbl in 2012 – 2013. This will allow increasing the growth rates of the Russian economy up to 3.5–4.5% per year. Thus, by the end of 2013, the real GDP will be approximately by 7% higher than in 2008. In 2012, the per capita GDP (in USD at the current rate) will increase by about 40% up to $16 – $16.5 thousand vs 2007.
Under this case, the real volume of investments into fixed assets will be restored to the precrisis level in 2012-2013.
High prices on the world raw markets will generate federal budget revenues sufficient to fund the federal expenditures at the target level. Moreover, in 2012 – 2013, a surplus of the Section 2.
Monetary-Credit and Budgetary Spheres federal budget (up to 1% of GDP) may occur, and funds will continue to be accumulated in the Reserve Fund.
A favorable foreign economic situation under this case creates conditions that will sustain the stable situation with the national payment balance. The payment balance and its two main components will remain positive during the entire period of review. In particular, the payment balance will be from $35 to $85 billion per year, and the annual inflow of private capital into Russia will reach $ 30 billion.
With this scenario, the Bank of Russia will not be able to avoid a sizable growth of international reserves returning to the policy of curbing the nominal strengthening of the ruble. Thus, by the end of 2013, the international reserves of the Central Bank of Russia will exceed the 2008 level growing up to $670 – 680 billion.
The nominal exchange ruble rate will increase up to 28.0 – 28.5 RUR/USD or approximately by 10% vs the 2010 average annual rate in 2011 – 2013. At the same time, the inflation (CPI) l continues to decrease but still remains at a higher level than in the base case (6.5 – 7.0%). As a result, the ruble will continue to be stabilized successfully, and by the end of 2013, the real effective ruble rate will exceed the 2008 summer level by 26% - 27%.
In this case, we assume that the RF Central Bank will move to inflation targeting policy and use interest rates as a main working tool (though with a greater focus on the currency market), the real money value is expected to grow as well. According to our estimates, the real interest rate for one-year credits issued to the non-financial sector may be 1.0 – 1.5%.
Monetization of the economy is going to build up to approximately 60% of GDP as in the base case.
Thus the main differences between the optimistic and the base case are:
1. A faster recovery of the GDP real volume that will exceed the pre-crisis level in terms of investments into fixed assets.
2. A favorable situation with the payment balance and its constituent components, fast accumulation of international reserves.
3. Return to the policy of the federal budget surplus and concentration of funds in the Reserve Fund.
4. Slow decline of the inflation rates, fast real and nominal strengthening of the ruble currency against high growth rates of the money stock and monetization of the Russian economy.
5. Restricted opportunities of the Bank of Russia in moving to inflation targeting policy, the need to place a greater focus on the currency market situation.
The budget expansion case, in spite of the favorable external situation, will preserve the budget deficit at 5 – 5.5% of GDP which may negatively impact the economic growth rates and real investments. Thus, the real GDP growth rates and investments into fixed assets are by appr. 0.5 – 1.0% lower than in the optimistic case.
Материалы этого сайта размещены для ознакомления, все права принадлежат их авторам.
Если Вы не согласны с тем, что Ваш материал размещён на этом сайте, пожалуйста, напишите нам, мы в течении 1-2 рабочих дней удалим его.