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Section 6.

Institutional Problems 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 The volume of mortgage housing loans extended within a quarter, the left scale, billion RUR The volume of housing loans extended within a quarter, the left scale, billion RUR The volume of consumer loans extended within a quarter, the right scale, billion RUR The source: the data of the Central Bank of Russia.

Fig. 13. Dynamics of the rate of extension of loans to individuals within a quarter In 2010, the volume of the extended mortgage housing loans amounted 0.85% of the annual value of GDP against 1.59% in 2008. (Fig. 14). As of January 2011, the debt on mortgage housing loans amounted to 2.53% of the 2010 GDP which figure is somewhat less than the relevant value (2.59%) in 2008.

According to the data of the Federal Service of State Registration, Cadastre and Cartography, the number of residential premises encumbered with mortgage and registered in the Unified Register of Titles in 2010 amounted to 733,090.

50 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 25 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0 0,0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 the GDP, trillion RUR the volume of mortgage housing loans extended within a year, % of the GDP the outstanding debt on mortgage housing loans, % of the GDP The Source: The Rosstat data.

Fig. 14. Dynamics of the mortgage housing lending, % of the GDP bln Rb bln Rb 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 2 Q GDP, trillion RUR RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks In 2010, there was a sustained growth in outstanding debt on RUR mortgage housing loans (Fig. 15). At the same time, in the 4th quarter 2010 the share of the overdue debt in the outstanding debt on RUR mortgage housing loans decreased from 2.83% in the 3rd quarter to 2.48% in the 4th quarter. It is to be noted that in December 2010, the value of the overdue debt decreased somewhat from RUR 26.1 billion to RUR 23.5 billion. On the contrary, in the 3rd and the 4th quarter 2010, the outstanding debt on mortgage housing loans in foreign currency decreased from RUR 192.4 billion to RUR 179.9 billion, while the share of the overdue debt in the outstanding debt in foreign currency rose from 6.31% (RUR 12.5 billion) late in the 4th quarter 2009 to 10.4% (RUR 18.0 billion) late in the 4th quarter 2010. (Fig. 15).

1000 12% 10% 8% 500 6% 4% 2% 0 0% 4 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 the debt on RUR mortgage housing loans, the left scale, billion RUR the debt on mortgage housing loans extended in foreign currency, the left scale, billion RUR the overdue debt as a percentage of the outstanding debt on RUR mortgage housing loans the overdue debt as a percentage of the outstanding debt on mortgage housing loans in foreign currency The source: the data of the Central Bank of Russia.

Fig. 15. Dynamics of the outstanding debt and the overdue debt on mortgage housing loans In 2010, both the value of the outstanding debt on mortgage housing loans without overdue payments and its share in the total amount of the debt increased (Table 32). A positive factor is a decrease in the share of the debt on the defaulted mortgage housing loans with payments overdue for over 180 days in the total amount of the debt to 5.11% by the end of 2010.

(Table 32).

Throughout 2010, the average weighted interest rate on RUR mortgage housing loans extended since the beginning of the year decreased from 14.3% to 12.5% (Fig. 16), while that on mortgage housing loans in foreign currency extended from the beginning of the year, fell in the first half of 2010 from 12.7% to 11.1% and remained virtually unchanged till the end of the year.

bln Rb Section 6.

Institutional Problems Table Grouping of the debt on mortgage housing loans by the period of delay in payments including:

With payments overWithout overdue pay- With payments over- With payments overdue for 91 to The total ments due for 1 to 90 days due for over 180 days 180 days amount of the debt on mort%, of the %, of the %, of the %, of the gage housing total In mil- total In mil- total total In mil- In milloans amount lion amount lion amount amount lion RUR lion RUR of the RUR of the RUR of the of the debt debt debt debt 1 008 450 864 947 85.77 73 516 7.29% 17 648 1.75 52 339 5.Feb 1 005 629 859 411 85.46 75 221 7.48% 17 699 1.76 53 298 5.Mar. 1 006 838 858 532 85.27 76 922 7.64% 17 720 1.76 53 664 5.Apr. 1 013 685 867 308 85.56 74 709 7.37% 19 767 1.95 51 901 5.May 1 025 020 874 137 85.28 76 159 7.43% 18 860 1.84 55 864 5.June 1 033 813 883 910 85.5 76 502 7.40% 16 024 1.55 57 377 5.July 1 042 163 900 012 86.36 68 574 6.58% 15 737 1.51 57 840 5.Aug. 1 055 983 905 400 85.74 74 975 7.10% 14 467 1.37 61 141 5.Sept. 1 069 618 916 342 85.67 77 119 7.21% 14 012 1.31 62 145 5.Oct. 1 086 204 941 847 86.71 67 671 6.23% 14 555 1.34 62 131 5.Nov. 1 105 023 953 524 86.29 74 700 6.76% 14 365 1.3 62 434 5.Dec. 1 127 834 990 578 87.83 66 767 5.92% 12 857 1.14 57 632 5.Jan. The source: the dada of the Central Bank of Russia.

30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 the average weighted interest rate on RUR loans extended from the beginning of the year, % the average weighted interest rate on loans in foreign currency extended from the beginning of the year, % the average weighted period of lending as regards RUR loans extended from the beginning of the year, years average weighted period of lending as regards loans extended in foreign currency from the beginning of the year, years The source: the data of the Central Bank of Russia.

Fig. 16. The average weighted data on mortgage housing loans in RUR and foreign currency extended from the beginning of the year rate, % term of credit, years 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Apr 1-Apr 1-Apr 1-Apr 1-Apr 1-Feb 1-Sep 1-Feb 1-Sep 1-Dec 1-Dec 1-Aug 1-Aug 1-Nov 1-Nov 1-Mar 1-Mar 1-May 1-May RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks The average weighted period of lending as regards RUR mortgage housing loans extended since the beginning of the year varied throughout 2010 between 16.5 and 16.2 years, while that regarding mortgage housing loans in foreign currency extended since the beginning of the year initially rose from 11.1 to 14.2 years and then fell to 12.8 years (Fig. 16).

In 2009, a significant increase of up to 60.82% in the share of five credit institutions with the largest assets in the total volume of mortgage housing loans extended that year gave way to a drop in the above value to 54.18% in 2010 and a redistribution of volumes between other groups (Fig. 17). If in 2009 the largest share of the overdue debt was registered with the third group (4.56%), in 2010 it was the second group whose portfolio of mortgage housing loans was of a higher risk (4,65%).

100% 5% 90% 5% 80% 4% 70% 4% 60% 3% 50% 3% 40% 2% 30% 2% 20% 1% 10% 1% 0% 0% Groups of credit institutions ranked by total assets (in descending order) the share of the group in the total volume of mortgage housing loans extended to individuals in the share of the group in the total volume of mortgage housing loans extended to individuals in the share of overdue debt in the outstanding debt of the group in the share of overdue debt in the outstanding debt of the group in The source: the data of the Central Bank of Russia.

Fig. 17. Dynamics of the volumes of extended mortgage housing loans and the overdue debt by the group of credit institutions ranged by the size of assets In 2010, the share of foreign currency mortgage housing loans in the volume of mortgage housing loans extended during a quarter and that in the volume of the outstanding MHL debt kept decreasing (Fig. 18) from 6.25% in the 4th quarter 2009 to 4.03% in the 4th quarter and from 19.6% in the 4th quarter 2009 to 15.95% in the 4th quarter 2010, respectively. However, a decrease in the share of the overdue debt on mortgage housing loans in foreign currency in the total volume of the overdue debt in the beginning of the year (39.06%) was replaced by growth by the end of that year (43.42%).

share of arrears 511 - 201501Total 5 - 21-share of group in the volume of credits Section 6.

Institutional Problems 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 the volume of mortgage housing loans in foreign currency as a percentage of the total volume of the extended loans with accrued result from the beginning of the year the outstanding debt on mortgage housing loans in foreign currency as a percentage of the total outstanding debt the overdue debt on mortgage housing loans in foreign currency as a percentage of the total overdue debt The source: the data of the Central Bank of Russia.

Fig. 18. The ratio of RUR mortgage housing loans to mortgage housing loans in foreign currency In the three quarters of 2010, AMHL refinanced 34,167,000 mortgage loans for the total amount of RUR 37.1 billion, which figure is equivalent to 18.2% in quantitative terms and 15.8% cash terms of the total number mortgage loans extended in that period.

In 2008, the share of AMHL on the market of refinancing of mortgage housing loans amounted to 26.69%, while in 2009, to 35.78%. In the first half of 2010, AMHL dominated on the market of refinancing; AMHL accounted for 75.53% of that market.

According to AMHLs data, as of December 2010 the minimum average rate on the refinanced AMHL loans which complied with the relevant AMHL standards amounted to 10.85% in the Privolzhsky Federal District, while the maximum one to 11.42% in the North Caucasian Federal District (Table 33). The average weighted term of the refinanced AMHL loans varied by the federal district from 16.2 years to 19.3 years. The average amount of the mortgage loan refinanced by AMHL amounts to RUR 1,011,000.

1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Apr 1-Apr 1-Apr 1-Apr 1-Apr RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Individual indices of the mortgage housing market by the federal district as of December 1, 2010.* The number of refi- 36 423 4 315 3 766 1 413 379 12 486 4 379 8 367 1 nanced loans (units) Loans refinanced by 36 824.8 4 938.5 4 258.0 1 615.3 452.3 11 409.2 4 423.8 8 099.9 1 627.AMHL, million RUR**.

Average weighted term 16.8 17.3 16.2 17.3 19.3 17.2 16.3 16.2 16.of the loans refinanced by AMHL, years** Average interest rate on 10.99 11.18 10.89 11.13 11.42 10.85 11.30 10.90 11.loans refinanced by AMHL, %** * accrued from the beginning of the year ** on standard AMHL products The source: AMHL.

After a drop in the volumes of mortgage housing lending and refinancing in 2008, the minimum share of the loans refinanced by AMHL in the total volume of MHL debt was registered late in 2008. From that moment, the share of AMHL kept growing in the 3rd quarter 2010 and amounted to 15.4% (Fig. 19).

As of November 1, 2010, AMHL refinanced 4119 mortgage loans extended under the Military Mortgage program for the total amount of about RUR 8 billion, as well as 828 loans with utilization of the maternal capital for the total amount of over RUR 936 million.

Early in 2011, the President signed the law which permitted all the women who had got the second child (regardless of the fact whether the child reached the age of three years old) to utilize the maternal capital for repayment of the mortgage loan. Furthermore, under the new law households with children will have an opportunity to use the maternal capital to repay mortgage loans received both before and after December 31, 2010.

As seen from the Strategy of Development of Mortgage Housing Lending in the Russian Federation till 2030, solution of the housing problem is still related to mortgage. Mortgage is considered as an instrument which regulates real-estate prices and has the following parameters:

loans are extended for the period of up to 30 years;

the interest rate is fixed at the level of the consumer price index plus 2-3%;

the down payment is to be made in the amount of at least 30% (in case of absence of mortgage insurance);

the share of loans with mortgage insurance and the down payment of 10% should not exceed 1/5;

the procedure for repayment of loans should provide for use of flexible schemes of debt management.

Russia District District District District District District District District Ural Federal Central Federal Siberian Federal Southern Federal Privolzhsky Federal Far Eastern Federal North-Western Federal North Caucasian Federal Section 6.

Institutional Problems 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 The volume of the AMHL servicing portfolio, billion RUR Market share of AMHL, % The source: the Rusipotekas data.

Fig. 19. The share of loans refinanced by AMHL in the total volume of MHL debt The quantitative parameters of the Strategy suggest that after the mortgage market has got through the following three stages - recovery to the pre-crisis level (20102012), complete recovery and attainment of sustained growth rates (20132020) and full market saturation (20212030) mortgage will be affordable to 60% of Russian households (17% in 2009) with the mortgage loan debt amounting to 15.5% of the GDP. The main obstacles in implementation of the above strategy are both the shortage of financial resources for mortgage and actual volumes of commissioning of housing. Suffice to say that with 90 million square meters of housing in 2015 (the above value was stated in the Housing federal purpose program) it will be necessary to increase by more than 50% the volume of commissioning of housing as compared to the existing one, however, even that will be far short of the target, that is, commissioning of 1 sq. m per capita annually in Russia.

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6.6. The Military Economy and Military Reform in Russia From the financial perspective, the year of 2010 started with a unusually early (of 12/04/2009) notification of the national military organizations chief controllers of such a critical development as the 2010 budget obligation limits, which, in principle, allowed all the military departments a timely delivery of respective obligations to recipients of budget funds. However, like in the previous years, the planned volumes and timelines once again were not met, plans altered momentarily, while prices of military products were on the upswing.

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