In summer 2010, GK PIK made a decision to issue additional equities in the amount of 20% of the increased capital with VTB Capital selected as the manager of placing. It is to be noted that OOO PIK-Development which is affiliated with the above group was found bankrupt, while the Moscow government prepared a few lawsuits to ZAO PIK-Region for the total amount of RUR 1 billion due to violation by the above company of agreements on building of social housing in the Moscow Region as regards both execution of the title to apartments and failure to build relevant volumes of housing. Taking over by VTB of the Bank of Moscow and possible change of the owner of Inteko’s assets (which company repaid the principal debt in 2009) will have a certain effect on establishment of the new structure of development and housing building. In June 2010, new amendments to Law No. FZ-214 on Participation in Building of Apartment Houses and Other Real Property Projects By Way of Shared Funding and Amendment of Some Statutory Acts of the Russian Federation were approved. Under the above amendments, all the doubtful schemes of raising of households’ funds, except for agreements on shared participation, bonds and housing associations have been banned. Also, developers are exempted from payment of VAT at conclusion of the agreement on participation in building by way of shared funding. By experts’ estimates, the above measure contributed to growth in Late in 2009 and early in 2010, the debt of Don-Stroi was estimated to amount to USD 3 billion, while that of Su-155, Sitema_Gals, GP PIK, Glavstroi and Inteko, to USD 1.48 billion, USD 1.3 billion, USD 1.27 billion, USD 1 billion and USD 0.7 billion, respectively.
RWAY, Information and Analytical Bulletin, No. 186 (September 2010), pp. 138-143.
Institutional Problems the share of new housing (which is built within the frameworks of mechanisms provided for by Federal Law No. FZ-214) in Moscow from 8% to 36%.
In the 2009-2010 period, the Federal Fund for Assistance in Development of Housing Building (FFADHB) which was established in 2008 held only 24 auctions and sold 41 lots, including 10 in Moscow and 10 in the Moscow Region, 9 in Primorski Krai, 4 in the Voronezh Region, 3 in the Tyumen Region, 2 in the Novgorod Region and 2 in the Saratov Region, one in Chuvashia and one in each of the following regions: the Kirov Region, the Chelyabinsk Region, the Kursk Region, the Vologda Region and the Novosibirsk Region.
Around 450 ha of land was either sold in ownership or leased1.
As a result, in Russia, in general, no system changes for the better in the market situation as regards the supply of housing have taken place in the past two years since the beginning of the crisis which fact is confirmed by the following excerpt from the Housing federal purpose program that was approved in December 2010:
“Along with weak competition among developers and excessive administrative barriers as regards developers’ access to the housing development market, obtaining of land plots and securing of relevant permits to building, the main problems in the sphere of housing development still consist in a lack of developed land plots with utilities and mechanisms of attraction of private investments and borrowed funds for building and modernization of utilities, as well as prevalence non-transparent and burdensome conditions for developers as regards connection to utilities systems. In most cities, there are no reliable mechanisms of financing and implementation of projects related to provision of land plots with utilities and funds to build projects of social infrastructure which are required for comprehensive development of territories. The banking community lacks the required instruments which could permit financing (at an acceptable level of risk) of projects of development of both utilities and the social infrastructure. Such a situation results in extension of deadlines and growth in the cost of housing development. The existing practice of solving the problems related to development of utilities for housing development purposes and provision of utilities service to the already built projects is based to a greater extent on fixing of fees for connection to utilities and technological connection and fulfillment by developers of technical conditions for connection to such utilities. Such a situation results in growth in the cost of a square meter of housing”2.
For the purpose of making housing more affordable, the Housing Program is aimed at complementing the activities of commercial developers with those by individual developers and non-profit housing associations. Formation of different schemes of public and private partnership in housing development should involve not only utilization of mechanisms of compensation of expenses related to payment of the interest on loans received from Russian credit institutions for providing land plots with utilities (a pool of projects, including pipelines and heat, gas, power and water supply projects, as well as water disposal and sewage treatment projects within the borders of a municipal entity) for housing development purposes, but also use of mechanisms which support development of the social infrastructure of residential neighborhoods in order to solve the problem comprehensively.
However, mortgage is still a priority mechanism in dealing with the housing problem which fact is confirmed by the new Strategy of Development of Mortgage Housing Lending www.fondrgs.ru.
The Housing Federal Purpose Program in the 2011-2015 period. The Program was approved by Resolution No.
1050 of December 17, 2010 of the Government of the Russian Federation.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks in the Russian Federation till 2030 approved by Resolution No. 1201-r of July 19, 2010 of the Government of the Russian Federation.
As regards the short-term prospect, it is worth mentioning the following aspects.
Until the end of 2011, all the war veterans and military servicemen discharged from service are to be provided with housing. Judging from the President’s address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, it can be expected that the maternal capital will be permitted to be used on a regular basis for repayment of mortgage loans before the child reaches the age of three years old. Also, land plots are expected to be provided for building purposes on a free of charge basis in case of a birth of the third or subsequent child.
A switch-over to provision of land plots for economy-class housing development on the basis of so-called Dutch auctions where the winner is considered that developer which has taken an obligation to sell housing at the maximum low price may be of greater importance.
Such an approach can be found in the Concept of Reduction of the Market Cost of Housing approved by the Ministry of Regional Development in August 2010 which concept recognizes at last (after several years of implementation of the priority national housing project) inevitability of increase in the ultimate housing price for consumers due to holding of land auctions where the winner is that player who has made the highest bid and taken the subsequent burden related to preparation of urban planning documents and land tenure documents due to refusal to do that by municipal authorities.
Introduction of such a scheme which has a potential for prices on economy-class housing to be reduced by 20%-25% requires a thorough selection of buyers because it is expected that such housing is to be bought only by households who are recognized to be in need of better housing conditions or categories of people whom the state has some obligations to with some limitations on disposal of such housing introduced.
Needless to say that specific parameters of the above mechanism and its results could be determined only after the relevant law, as well as numerous amendments to the Urban Planning Code, Land Code, Housing Code, Tax Code and other statutory acts have beenapproved1.
6.5.5. The Prospects of Development of the Housing Market Switching over to evaluation of different scenarios of further development, it is worth mentioning as generalization that stabilization trends which arose (by summer 2009 after the acute phase of the crises had been over) on the secondary housing market in Russia were in line with the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial indices and determined the housing market’s entry into the phase of stagnation.
In 2010, the state of depressive stabilization with rates of growth in housing prices lagging behind the inflation rate was typical of most cities’ markets. An exception was Moscow and Novosibirsk where growth in prices in nominal terms (9%–10%) ensured a symbolic increase of prices in real terms.
The earlier made forecasts of the dynamics of housing prices in the 2009–2010 period proved to be true. As was expected, in 2010 prices stabilized. Unlike the 1998–1999 crisis where the pricing trend had a U-form, in the current crisis prices were expected to go up in 2011–2012 with the growth in price anticipated to be not that rapid as it was in 2000– 2001 (L-form of the trend).
RWAY, Information and Analytical Bulletin, No. 186 (September 2010), pp. 61, 172.
Institutional Problems The forecast for the year 2011 and beyond was done on the basis of the pattern in which dependence of the growth rates of prices on those of the average per capita income for different types of the market was taken into account1.2.
The growth rates of households’ real income and the expected inflation rate have been taken both from the Mid-Term Forecast of the Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation in the Year 2011 and the 2012–2013 period3 and relevant regional forecasts.
According to the data stated therein, in the mid-term prospect in most regions, except for Perm Territory, the values of indices close to the national average ones4 were set5.
In 2011, the type of the market in Moscow and Novosibirsk was determined as a developing one, while that in St. Petersburg, the Moscow Region and Vladimir as a stable one in the first half of the year and as a developing one in the second half of that year. In Perm, with lower growth in real income and higher rates of inflation (due to which households are more reluctant to spend their savings) taken into account the type of the market was determined as a stable one.
As a result of calculations, it has been determined that in 2011 the growth in prices in nominal terms will amount to about 15% in Moscow and Novosibirsk, to 6%–10% in the Moscow Region, St. Petersburg and Vladimir and to about 2% in Perm (Fig. 12).
It is to be noted that the forecast for the 2011-2013 period calculated on the basis of the above pattern and shown in the Figure is a smooth one. However, the earlier made forecast of higher price volatility remains in force; due to the above factor within 4-6 months monthly growth rates of prices may fluctuate up and down by 1%-2% from the average values and even enter the zone of negative values.
In the secondary market, the volume of sales will remain at the level of pre-crisis values of the 2006–2007 period, while in the primary market it recovers to the 2007 level.
At the same time, it is to be noted that in 2011 the dynamics of macroeconomic indices which is still much dependent on the situation on the global commodities and financial markets may have a great effect on the housing market in Russia.
G.М. Sternik and S.G. Sternik. Typology of Real Property Markets by the Trend to Create Pricing Bubbles - Property Relations in the Russian Federation Journal No.8 (95) 2009, pp. 18–28.
G.М. Sternik Methods of Forecasting Housing Prices Depending on the Type of the Market. – Property Relations in the Russian Federation Journal, 2011, No.1, pp. 43–47.
The forecast of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation in the year 2011 and the planned 2012-2013 period. - http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/macro/prognoz/ doc20100923_07.
Indices of the updated forecast of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation in the 2011– 2013 period. - http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/ macro/prognoz/ doc20101217_03.
As regards growth in GDP: 3.2%–4.6% (RF: 3.4%–4.2%), secondary production: 3.4%–4.2% (RF: 3.2%– 4.2%), retail sales: 4.5%–6.3% (RF: 4.5%–6.3%), investments in fixed capital from all the sources of financing:
3.5%–4.1% (RF: 8.8%–8.1%), the inflation rate: 6.5%–5.0% (RF: 6.0%–5.0%) and households’ real disposable income: 2.9%–4.5% (RF: 3.2%–4.7%).
Reference conditions for formation of the scenarios of economic development of Perm Territory in the period until the year 2012 (the main scenario conditions). – http://www.gorodperm.ru. Those conditions provide for slower growth rates of households’ real income (2%) and higher inflation rate at the regional level (12.5%).
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Fig. 12. The forecast of RUR prices of the supply on the secondary market in some cities of Russia.
If late in 2010, the outflow of capital from the private sector (it mostly fell on the 4th quarter and was somewhat smaller as compared to that of 2009) was a negative factor for the Russian economy, the dramatic growth in global prices on oil due to developments in the Middle East creates a basis for a more rapid recovery of the Russian property market. An additional factor behind the above suggestion may be the upcoming political cycle of the 2011–2012 period with the prospect of growth in budget expenditure and incomes of certain groups of households. However, the authorities’ efforts to prevent a new pricing bubble on the property market make a repetition of the scenario of the mortgage-oil growth of the 2005-2007 period highly unlikely.
6.5.6. Housing Lending According to the data of the Central Bank of Russia, 301,035 mortgage housing loans (MHL) for the total amount of RUR 378, 933 million were extended in 2010 with the outstanding debt of RUR 1,127,834 million as of January 1, 2011. The volume of mortgage housing loans extended in 2010 amounted to 58% of the total volume of loans extended in and exceeded by 148% the volume of loans extended in 2008. On the contrary, as of January 1, 2011 the outstanding debt on mortgage housing loans already exceeded that as of January 1, 2008 and January 1, 2009. In 2010, the volume of extended housing loans (HL) amounted to RUR 437,030 million or 395,515 loans with the outstanding debt of RUR 1,295,006 million as of January 1, 2011.
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