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GAIDAR INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2010 TRENDS AND OUTLOOKS (ISSUE 32) Gaidar Institute Publishers Moscow / 2011 UDC 338.1(470+571) BBC 65.9(2)-04 Agency CIP RSL Editorial Board: S. Sinelnikov-Mourylev (editor-in-chief), . Radygin, N. Glavatskaya Russian Economy in 2010. Trends and Outlooks.

R95 (Issue 32) .: Gaidar Institute Publishers, 2011. 544 pp.

ISBN 978-5-93255-316-9 The review provides a detailed analysis of main trends in Russia's economy in 2010.

The paper contains 6 big sections that highlight single aspects of Russia's economic development: the socio-political context; the monetary and credit spheres; financial sphere; the real sector; social sphere; institutional challenges. The paper employs a huge mass of statistical data that forms the basis of original computation and numerous charts.

This publication is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

UDC 338.1(470+571) BBC 65.9(2)-04 ISBN 978-5-93255-316-9 Gaidar Institute, 2011 Authors:

Chapter 1.1 V. Mau;

Chapter 2.1 P. Trunin;

Chapter 2.2 S. Sinelnikov-Murylev, I. Sokolov, T. Tischenko;

Chapter 2.3 . Siluanov, V. Nazarov, . medov;

Chapter 2.4 S. Drobyshevsky;

Chapter 3.13.8 . Abramov;

Chapter 3.9 S. Borisov;

Chapter 3.10 . Shadrin;

Chapter 4.1 . Astafieva, . Izriadnova;

Chapter 4.2 S. Tsukhlo;

Chapter 4.3.1 . Izriadnova;

Chapter 4.3.2 . Iluykhina;

Chapter 4.4 Yu. Bobylev;

Chapter 4.5 N. Karlova, N. Shagaida, R. Yanbykh;

Chapter 4.6 N. Volovik, S. Prikhodko, . Kharina;

Chapter 5.1 . Izriadnova, S. Misihina;

Chapter 5.2 S. Misihina;

Chapter 5.3 L. Karachurina(NRU HSE);

Chapter 5.4 . Kliachko;

Chapter 5.5 I. Dezhina;

Chapter 6.1 . Kuzyk, G. Malginov, . Radygin, Yu/ Simachev, N. Shmeleva;

Chapter 6.2, 6.3.26.3.6 . Apevalova;

Chapter 6.3.1, 6.5.6 G. Zadonsky;

Chapter 6.4 . Smirnova;

Chapter 6.5.16.5.5 G. Malginov, G. Sternik (Plekhanov REA, Russian Guild of Real-tors);

Chapter 6.6 V. Zatsepin, E. Trofimova, V. Tsymbal;

Chapter 6.7 N. Mironova, I. Starodubrovskaya;

Annex 1 . Kireeva;

Annex 2 . Levashenko;

Annex 3 . Velikova.

Table of Contents Section 1. The Socio-Political Context............................................................................................ 1.1. Economic policies in 2010: a quest for innovations............................................................... 1.1.1. The global economic crisis in 2010................................................................................. 1.1.2. Russias economic policy between crisis and modernization........................................ 1.1.3. A quest for a new growth model.................................................................................... 1.1.4. The key challenge: structural modernization in conditions of a rent-based economy.................................................................................... Section 2. Monetary-Credit and Budgetary Spheres................................................................... 2.1. The Monetary and Credit Policy........................................................................................... 2.1.2. Inflationary Processes.................................................................................................... 2.1.3. The State of the Balance of Payments and Foreign Currency Market........................... 2.1.4. Main Measures in the Monetary and Credit Policy Area.............................................. 2.2. National budget..................................................................................................................... 2.2.1. Assumptions of the 2010 budget policy........................................................................ 2.2.2. Budget policy at the stage of recovery........................................................................... 2.2.3. Main events in the budget area in 2010......................................................................... 2.2.4. Analysis of the main parameters of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2011 2013............................................................................... 2.2.5. Prospects of the fiscal policy development.................................................................... 2.3. Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations and Subnational Finances............................................. 2.3.1. Subnational Budgets in 2010.........................................................................................

2.3.2. Financial Support from the Federal Budget................................................................... 2.3.3. Federal Law On the Federal Budget for 2011 and Planning Period of 2012 and 2013 as Related to Allocation of Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers to Other Budget System Levels..................................................................... 2.4. Possible scenarios of social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 20112013...................................................................................... Section 3. Financial Markets and Financial Institutes................................................................ 3.1. The Year of 2010: Recovery of Russian Financial Market................................................... 3.2. Factors Determining the Dynamic of the Russian Stock Market.......................................... 3.3. Financial Institutions: Seeking for a New Growth Concept................................................ 3.3.1. Residual Forms of Support to the Financial Sector..................................................... 3.3.2. Liquidity and Current Stability of the Banking System.............................................. 3.3.3. Towards Recovery of International Reserves.............................................................. 3.3.4. Deposit Base Growth and Banks Deleveraging........................................................... 3.3.5. The Issue of Converting Liquidity into Loans............................................................. 3.3.6. Carry Trading Outlooks as a Growth Driver for the Banking System........................ 3.4. Ruble Bond Market............................................................................................................. 3.5. Key Risks in Financial Market............................................................................................ 3.5.1. Dependence of the stock market on oil prices............................................................. 3.5.2. Risks of foreign capital outflow................................................................................... 3.5.3. Ruble devaluation risk in the medium term................................................................ 3.5.4. Risk of excessive foreign borrowings accumulation by banks and real sector companies....................................................................................... 3.5.5. Operational market and algorithmic trading risks....................................................... 3.5.6. Risk in repo transactions..............................................................................................3.5.7. Low capacity of the internal market for financial services...........................................3.6. Problem of attracting conservative institutional investors...................................................3.7. The role of the stock market in the economy modernization and innovation promotion...........................................................................................................3.7.1. Yield of financial and non-financial investments.........................................................3.7.2. Contribution of the corporate bond market in real capital growth..............................3.7.3. Effect of IPO shares on the economy...........................................................................3.7.4. Private equity and venture capital funds......................................................................3.8. Impact of the crisis on the system of domestic savings.......................................................3.9. Banking System in the Russian Federation..........................................................................3.9.1. Key Macroeconomic Figures which had an Impact on the Russian Banking Sector in 2010..................................................................................3.9.2. Analysis of Annual Data on the Banking System: Balance Sheet................................3.9.3. Quality of Assets..........................................................................................................3.9.4. Profit and Loss in the Banking System........................................................................3.9.5. Analysis of the 500 Largest Russian Banks.................................................................3.10. The Market of Municipal and Sub-Federal Borrowings....................................................3.10.1. The dynamics of market development........................................................................3.10.2. Changes in the Structure of the Accumulated Debt....................................................Section 4. The Real Sector of the Economy.................................................................................4.1.

The Macrostructure of Production.......................................................................................4.1.1. Main Trends and Factors of Economic Development in 2010.....................................4.1.2. Main Characteristics of the Use of GDP......................................................................4.1.3. Changes in the Structure of GDP, by Source of Income..............................................4.1.4. The Dynamics and Structure of Production, by Type of Economic Activity.............................................................................................................4.2. Russian Industrial Enterprises in 2010................................................................................4.2.1. First Quarter: an Attempt to Recover from Crisis........................................................4.2.2. Second Quarter: a Pause...............................................................................................4.2.3. Third quarter: there is no more optimism.....................................................................4.2.4. Fourth Quarter: What is Going on in the Russian Industry........................................4.3. Investments in the Real Sector of the Economy..................................................................4.3.1. Domestic internal investments in fixed assets..............................................................4.3.2. Foreign Investments.....................................................................................................4.4. Oil-and-Gas Sector...............................................................................................................4.4.1. The Dynamic of World Oil and Gas Prices..................................................................4.4.2. Dynamic and Structure of Production in the Oil-and-Gas Sector................................4.4.3. Dynamic and Structure of Export of Oil and Gas........................................................4.4.4. Price Dynamic for Energy Commodities on the Domestic Market..............................4.4.5. Tax Regulation of the Oil-and Gas Sector....................................................................4.5. Russian agrifood sector in 2010: performance and trends...................................................4.5.1. General outline of agricultural performance in 2010...................................................4.5.2. Situation on selected agricultural and food markets.....................................................4.5.3. Production of food products.........................................................................................4.5.4. Modification of agricultural policies in 2010...............................................................4.5.5. Conclusions and outlook..............................................................................................4.6. Foreign Trade.......................................................................................................................4.6.1. State of the Global Economy........................................................................................4.6.2. Conditions of Russias Foreign Trade: Situation with Prices for Major Russian Exports..................................................................................................... 4.6.3. Main Indicators of Russia's Foreign Trade.................................................................. 4.6.4. Structure and dynamic of export.................................................................................. 4.6.5. Structure and Dynamic of Import................................................................................ 4.6.6. Regulation of Russias Foreign Trade......................................................................... Section 5. Social Sphere............................................................................................................... 5.1. Social Standard of Living.................................................................................................... 5.1.1. Monetary Income......................................................................................................... 5.1.2. Public Expenditure....................................................................................................... 5.2. Unemployment and New Lines of Inclusion of the Unemployed in Employment in Russia........................................................................................................... 5.2.1. Review of the Unemployment in 2010........................................................................ 5.2.2. New Lines of Inclusion of the Unemployed in Employment in the Russian Federation in 2010......................................................................................... 5.3. Migration process................................................................................................................
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