Fig. 69. Major Indicators of Russia’s Foreign Trade (million US dollars) RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Throughout 2011, Russian foreign trade volumes continued to recover to their pre-crisis highs registered in July 2008; the recovery process had, in fact, actually started in (Fig. 69). In the first half-year of 2011, the growth rate of imports considerably exceeded that of exports. In July 2011, as a result of the low base effect having worn out in the first halfyear of 2010, the accelerated growth trend in imports finally came to an end. In January 2011, exports grew by 12.1% in annual terms, while imports rose by 43.4%. In June 2011, these indicators amounted to 38.6% and 40.1% respectively, in July – to 35.7% and 30.6% respectively, and in November – to 34.4% and 22.7% respectively.
In the main, the rise in the value of exports was taking place in response to the price situation in world markets remaining favorable for Russian exporters throughout 2011 against the background of a reduction in the physical volume of exports. The rise in imports was taking place in response to an increase in both the physical volume and the price of imports (Table 51).
Table Russia’s Foreign Trade Indices (As % of Same Periods of 2010) Q1 2011 1st half-year 2011 January-September 2011 physical average physical average physical average physical average volume prices volume prices volume prices volume prices Exports 97.2 119.9 99.5 127.2 97.9 131 97.8 132.Imports 135.4 106.2 130 109.8 125.5 109.8 122.2 109.Source: RF Ministry of Economic Development.
Russia’s balance of trade remained positive. Its surplus amounted to $ 198.8bn, representing a 31.1% rise on 2010 and a 10.6% rise on 2008.
In 2011, the imbalance coefficient of foreign trade (the ratio of the trade balance to the trade turnover) amounted to 0.235, thus remaining practically at the same level as in (0.234).
The Structure and Dynamics of Exports In 2011, Russian exports rose to $ 521.97bn, which represented a 30.4% increase on and a 10.7% increase on 2008. In the main, that rise in exports was due to the ongoing increase in contract prices concurrent with a reduction in the physical volume of exports. The average export price index amounted to 132.9%, while its physical volume index – to 97.8% (Table 52).
To far abroad 90.8 86.6 91.0 113.9 152.9 211.6 260.6 301.5 400.5 255.3 337.7 438.Growth rate as percentage of previous year Physical volume index 110.2 104.2 115.0 109.5 110.7 104.7 105.8 105.0 96.8 97.0 110.0 97.Price index 128.2 93.8 86.0 113.4 122.7 126.9 119.7 110.9 137.4 76.4 119.8 132.Source: RF Central Bank, RF Ministry of Economic Development.
Fuel and energy products remained the most important item in Russian exports. In 2011, their share increased to 71.2% vs. 69% in 2010. The value of exported fuel and energy prodSection The Real Sector of the Economy ucts increased by 32.49% in response to the favorable foreign trade situation in the world energy resources market.
As before, the principal item of Russian exports was oil, whose share in the net volume of Russian exports in 2011 amounted to 34.9% (vs. 33.9% in 2010). According to the RF Federal Customs Service, in 2011 Russia exported 219.1m tons of crude oil worth $ 171.7bn, which means that the physical volume of oil exports declined by 6.3% on 2010, while their value rose by 33.1%. The share of oil experts in the volume of oil extraction dropped to 47.7% in 2011 from 49.1% in 2010. Russia remained the world’s biggest oil producer: in November 2011 it produced 9,867 thousand barrels per day, while the daily oil production of all OPEC members taken together amounted to 30,367 thousand barrels (including Iraq’s 2,thousand barrels and Saudi Arabia’s 9,597 thousand barrels).
Despite a considerable growth in the physical volume of petroleum product exports to CIS countries (by 83.8%), Russia’s net volume of petroleum product exports dwindled by 4.9% due to a 5.2% drop in petroleum product exports to far abroad countries (which accounted for 96.1% of Russian petroleum product exports). Owing to the rise in contract prices, the value of petroleum product exports grew by 31.5%.
In 2011, as a result of the European Union’s growing demand for Russian natural gas which was taking place against the background of a decline in the energy production of nuclear power plants, Russian natural gas exports increased by 5.9% on 2010, while their value shot up by 34.3%.
Metal and metal products remained the second most important item in Russian exports. In 2011, their share in the net value of exports amounted to 9.1%, which represented a 1.5 percentage-point drop on 2010. The value of metal and metal products exports rose by 9.9% on 2010, while their physical volume shrank by 9.7%.
The year 2011 saw a considerable reduction in Russia’s participation in the international nickel and refined copper market, caused by a number of factors, including an increase in the stocks of these metals traded on stock exchanges, and a reduction in China’s and Japan’s demand for refined copper. To a certain extent, the drop in copper and nickel exports was caused by the re-introduction, from early 2011, of the 10-percent exports duty on these metals. The physical volume of copper exports declined by 60.1%, while that of nickel exports – by 18.7%. On the other hand, the physical volume of aluminum exports rose by 2.4%.
The year 2011 also witnessed a rise increase in the average contract prices for most types of exported chemical products. Thus, there were price increases for ammonia (by 45.3%), methanol (by 22%), mineral nitric fertilizers (by 28.4%), and synthetic rubber (by 33.6%). As a result, the rise in the value of exports belonging to this category of goods amounted to 27.6%. In 2011, the share of chemical product exports in Russia’s total exports remained at its 2010 level of 6%.
The share of machinery and equipment exports dropped from 5.2% in 2010 to 4.4% in 2011. This exports category yielded $ 21.1bn, which represented a 7.8% rise on 2010.
In 2011, the physical volume of passenger car exports rose by 49.2% on the previous year.
This rise was accounted for solely by a 65.9% increase in the number of cars exported to CIS countries. Russia’s passenger car exports to far-abroad countries fell by 19%.
A considerable share in exports belonging to the machinery and equipment category of goods was accounted for by military-purpose products. According to OJSC Rosoboronex RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks port1, in 2011 Russia’s military-purpose exports amounted to over $ 10.7bn (vs. $ 8.7bn in 2010). Rosoboronexport’s leading export item was Air Force arms and equipment (51%), followed by Ground Forces arms and equipment (21%), Navy arms and equipment (11%), AirDefense arms and equipment (11%), and arms and equipment designated for other categories of armed forces (4%). In 2011, OJSC Rosoboronexport maintained its military-technical cooperation with 57 countries. During that period, the main importers of Russian arms and military equipment were India and Venezuela.
The rise in the average contract prices for most products belonging to the timber, woodpulp and paper products category of goods caused a 12.6% increase in the value of those exports. Thus, the price of veneer rose by 25%, the price of newsprint – by 21.5% and that of wood pulp – by 8.8%. The share of exports belonging to that category of goods in Russia’s total exports dropped from 2.5% in 2010 to 2.2% in 2011. The physical volumes of saw timber exports, pulp wood exports and veneer exports increased by 12.3%, 8.2% and 1.9% respectively, while the physical volume of newsprint exports dwindled by 6.1%, and that of unprocessed timber exports – by 1.5%.
After having dropped by 10.2% in 2010 due to the introduction of a grain export embargo, Russia’s export of food products and their raw materials began to gradually recover over the course of 2011. The embargo had been in effect from 15 August 2010 through 1 July 2011.
On having lifted the embargo in July 2011, Russia managed to reclaim its position as one the world’s biggest grain exporters. According to the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat), in 2011 Russia harvested 93.9 million tons of grain, which represented a 28.1% rise on the previous year.
Russia’s 2011 sugar beet harvest was 2.1 times larger than that of 2010. As a result, her beet sugar output increased, over the course of 2011, to 4.7 million tons, which represented a 69.9% rise on 2010. The surge in beet sugar production and the resulting drop in domestic sugar prices made it possible for Russia to substantially increase the physical volume of sugar exports. According to the Russian Sugar Producers Association (Soyuzrossakhar), over the course of 2011, Russia exported more than 240,000 tons of sugar, which represented its alltime high. Traditionally, a large part of Russian sugar exports went to the CIS countries, primarily Kazakhstan. In 2011, the geographic spread of Russian sugar exports was extended to Syria, the United Kingdom and Montenegro. Small amounts of powdery sugar, pressed refined sugar and small-packaged sugar were exported to Belize, China, Norway, Japan, Mexico, Panama, the USA, and a number of other countries.
In 2011, Russia’s export of food commodities and their raw materials surged by 40% on the previous year. The share of these exports in her total exports rose to 2.4% from 2.2% in 2010.
Thus, the year 2011 saw no changes in the commodity structure of Russian exports. The improvement of its quantitative indicators was almost exclusively brought about by the ongoing increase in the prices of raw materials, primarily oil – a clear indication that the Russian export commodity pattern remained heavily dependent on the situation in the world raw materials market (Fig. 70).
http://www.roe.ru/news/pr_rel/pr_rel_rus/pr_rus_12_02_03.html Section The Real Sector of the Economy 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 Food products and agricultural raw materials Mineral products Chemical industry products and rubber Timber and pulp and paper products Metals and metal products Machinery, equipment and transport vehicles Other goods Source: RF Federal Customs Service.
Fig. 70. The Commodity Structure of Russian Exports (%) The Structure and Dynamics of Imports In the first half-year of 2011, the value of Russia’s imports rapidly grew in response to a notable rise in external demand caused by the intensified credit activity of the population and the strengthening of the ruble. In the second half of 2011, the rate of import value growth reduced. Nevertheless, over the course of 2011 the value of imports rose by 10.7% from its precrisis level registered in 2008. As compared with 2010, the value of imports grew by 29.9% to $ 323.2bn. The latter increase in imports value was caused both by the growth of their physical volume, whose index shot up to 122.2%, and the import price index’s rise to 109.1% (Table 53).
From far- 31.4 40.3 48.2 60.1 76.4 103.5 138.6 191.2 253.1 167.7 213.3 275.abroad countries Growth rates, as percentage of previous year Physical vol- 129.2 129.1 117.6 119.2 124.2 122.4 130.1 127.1 113.5 63.3 135.4 122.ume index Price index 86.7 94.3 93.4 98.7 106.1 106.5 105.5 107.6 117.8 99.1 101.6 109.Source: Bank of Russia, RF Ministry of Economic Development.
As before, the main commodity group imported by the Russian Federation was machinery, equipment and transport vehicles, whose share in Russia’s total imports increased from 45.4% in 2010 to 49.6% in 2011 (Fig. 71). This commodity group was the biggest contributor to the rise in the value of Russian imports: in 2011, the value of machinery imports grew by 43% on 2010. The physical volume of passenger car imports surged by 43.3%, while that of trucks – by 85.7%.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks The share of Russia’s imports of food commodities and their raw materials in her total imports declined from 15.5% in 2010 to 13.8% in 2011. As compared with 2010, the value of food commodity imports grew by 16.3%. At the same time, it should be noted that the rise in their value was predominantly caused by the across-the-board price increase with regard to practically all food commodities. Thus, the price of meat rose by 11.1%, the price of poultry meat – by 6.5%, the price of butter – by 29.5%, the price of coffee – by 41.5%, the price of sunflower oil – by 29.2% and the price of white refined sugar – by 20.6%. The big harvests of wheat, sugar beet and sunflower made it possible for Russia to reduce sunflower oil imports and white refined sugar imports by 19.2% and 42.9% respectively, and to reduce her wheat imports almost to zero.
In 2011, the share of chemical products in Russia’s total imports amounted to 15.5% (vs.
16.5% in 2010). As compared with 2010, the value of chemical product imports rose by 22.8%.
The share of textile articles and footwear in Russia’s total imports amounted to 5.5% (vs.
6.1% in 2010). Clothes and footwear were predominantly imported from far-abroad countries, and only 6.2% of clothes imports and 1.2% of footwear imports came from CIS countries.
In 2011, the share of metals and metal articles in Russia’s total imports amounted 7% (vs.
7.1% in 2010). The value of imports belonging to this commodity group rose by 28.4% on 2010 in response to a 23.1% increase in the value these imports. The physical volume of Russia’s imports of ferrous metals and ferrous metal articles grew by 16.2%, including imports of rolled steel and ordinary carbon steel by 14.6%.
Other goods 100% 90% Machinery, equipment and transport 80% vehicles Metals and metal products 70% 60% Textile and footwear 50% Timber and pulp and paper products 40% 30% Chemical industry products and rubber 20% Mineral products 10% 0% Food products and agricultural raw 2008 2009 2010 materials Source: RF Federal Customs Service.
Fig. 71. The Commodity Structure of Russian Imports (%) The growth rates of major imports substantially exceed the growth rates of domestic output of the corresponding products, driving up their share in Russia’s domestic market (Table 54).
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