5. When elaborating federal agricultural policies one should take into account the whole variety of farm structures in regions-constituents of the Federation and administrative districts within them. Federal policies should be designed so that not only regions and districts with large-scale corporate farming but also areas with prevailing small-scale farming could get access to state support. Special measures are needed for areas of agricultural devastation. The efficiency of support should be taken into account when shaping the mechanisms of state support to agriculture. In regions showing good return per ruble of investments itТs worth supporting farm production. Meantime, in territories where the return of support allocations is low but rural population is still preserved, itТs rational to use state funds for the development of rural areas and any kinds of business.
4.6. Foreign Trade 4.6.1. Situation in the World Economy The succession of events that occurred in 2011 created some real threats to the world economyТs revival that had begun in 2010. The political instabilities in the Near East and North African countries, natural disasters in Australia and Japan made the world economyТs exit from the crisis more difficult. In the spring of 2011, Europe was hit by yet another wave of sovereign debt crisis which mainly affected the peripheral eurozone countries Ц Greece, Ireland and Portugal. In early June, the US government debt situation took a turn for the worse.
By the end of the year, economic conditions in Europe had continued to deteriorate.
The World BankТs report Global Economic Prospects, published on 18 January 20121, emphasizes that the world economy has entered a very difficult phase which is characterized by some considerable vulnerabilities and uncertainties. The present course of world events fully corresponds to one of the decelerating economic growth scenarios considered to be risky http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1322593305595/8287139-1326374900917/ GEP_January_2012a_FullReport_FINAL.pdf Section The Real Sector of the Economy in the previous Report (June 2011). As a result, the World Bank has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast:
- the growth rate of the global economy will amount to 2.5% in 2012 and to 3.1% in 2013, vs. 3.6% for both these years as forecasted in the June 2011 Report;
- in 2012, high-income countries are expected to have a 1.4% economic growth (a 0.3% drop for the eurozone and a 2.1% growth for the other high-income countries); in 2013 Ц a 2% growth (vs. a 2.7% growth in 2011 and a 2.6% growth in 2013 predicted in the June 2011 Report);
- the growth forecast for developing counties is reduced, by comparison with the June Report, from 6.2% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013 to 5.4% and 6% respectively;
- the 2012 growth forecast for the Russian Federation is cut from 4.1% to 3.5%.
According to the World Bank, the growth rate of world trade in 2011 amounted to 6.6% (vs. 12.4% in 2010). Bearing in mind the forecasted reduction in the growth rate of the global economy in 2012, the World Bank expects that the growth rate of world trade will drop to 4.7% in 2012, but then will rebound to 6.8% in 2013.
The IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update1 published on 24 January 2012 also registers a slowdown in the global economic recovery and an escalation in downside risks.
According to the Update, in late 2011 the crisis in the eurozone entered a Сdangerous new phaseТ; in 2012 the eurozone economy is expected to go into a mild recession that will also affect other countries of the world, including the United States, emerging market countries and developing economies (Table 48).
Table Changes in World Output and World Trade Volume Difference between September Growth Rates as Percentage WEO Projections and January of Previous Year WEO Projections 1 2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 World Output 5.2 3.8 3.3 3.9 Ц0.7 Ц0.Advanced Economies 3.2 1.6 1.2 1.9 Ц0.7 Ц0.United States 3.0 1.8 1.8 2.2 0.0 Ц0.Eurozone 1.9 1.6 Ц0.5 0.8 Ц1.6 Ц0.Germany 3.6 3.0 0.3 1.5 Ц1.0 0.France 1.4 1.6 0.2 1.0 Ц1.2 Ц0. Italy 1.5 0.4 Ц2.2 Ц0.6 Ц2.5 Ц1. Spain Ц0.1 0.7 Ц1.7 Ц0.3 Ц2.8 Ц2.Japan 4.4 Ц0.9 1.7 1.6 Ц0.6 Ц0.United Kingdom 2.1 0.9 0.6 2.0 Ц1.0 Ц0.Canada 3.2 2.3 1.7 2.0 Ц0.2 Ц0.Other Advanced Economies 5.8 3.3 2.6 3.4 Ц1.1 Ц0. Newly Industrialized Asian Economies 8.4 4.2 3.3 4.1 Ц1.2 Ц0.Emerging and Developing Economies 7.3 6.2 5.4 5.9 Ц0.7 Ц0.Central and Eastern Europe 4.5 5.1 1.1 2.4 Ц1.6 Ц1.Commonwealth of Independent States 4.6 4.5 3.7 3.8 Ц0.7 Ц0. Russia 4.0 4.1 3.3 3.5 Ц0.8 Ц0. Excluding Russia 6.0 5.5 4.4 4.7 Ц0.7 Ц0.Developing Asia 9.5 7.9 7.3 7.8 Ц0.7 Ц0.China 10.4 9.2 8.2 8.8 Ц0.8 Ц0.India 9.9 7.4 7.0 7.3 Ц0.5 Ц0.Latin America and the Caribbean 6.1 4.6 3.6 3.9 Ц0.4 Ц0. Brazil 7.5 2.9 3.0 4.0 Ц0.6 Ц0. Mexico 5.4 4.1 3.5 3.5 Ц0.1 Ц0. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/pdf/0112.pdf RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks contТd 1 2 World Trade Volume (Goods and Services) 12.7 6.9 3.8 5.4 Ц2.0 Ц1.Imports Advanced Economies 11.5 4.8 2.0 3.9 Ц2.0 Ц0.Emerging and Developing Economies 15.0 11.3 7.1 7.7 Ц1.0 Ц1.Exports Advanced Economies 12.2 5.5 2.4 4.7 Ц2.8 Ц0.Emerging and Developing Economies 13.8 9.0 6.1 7.0 Ц1.7 Ц1.Source: The IMF World Economic Outlook (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/index.
On the whole, the IMF forecasts that, in 2012, activity in the advanced economies will expand by a meager 1.2 % on average (representing a 0.75 p.p. drop on the September WEO), while in 2013 it will increase by 1.9%. The current yearТs global economic growth is expected to hover around 3.3%.
Growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to weaken owing to the deterioration in the external environment and the slowdown in the domestic demand. The average economic growth rates in these countries are forecasted at around 5.4%, which represents a considerable drop on the growth rates registered in 2010-2011, and a 0.7 p.p. Ц decline by comparison with the September 2011 WEO.
The highest growth rates are still expected to be achieved by the developing countries of Asia. According to the IMF, their economies will grow at 7.3 to 7.8% on average. Despite a substantial downward revision of their growth rates, China and India remain the most dynamically developing economies of the world.
4.6.2. The Terms of RussiaТs Foreign Trade: Prices for Major Russian Exports and Imports In 2011, the terms of RussiaТs foreign trade considerably improved by comparison with the previous year due to the prices of exports rising at a higher rate than the prices of imports:
RussiaТs Terms of Trade Index amounted to 121.8. In 2010, this index was notably lower Ц 117.9 (Fig. 68).
In 2011, the price situation on the world markets of major Russian exports was notably favorable (Table 49). The prices of raw commodities peaked in Q1, but then experienced a decline owing to a contraction in demand. Over the course of the year, the prices of non-energy goods dwindled by 11%, which involved practically all goods of that category, except for fertilizers, timber and grain. The prices of energy goods rose by 14%1.
In 2011, the behavior of oil prices was determined by the worsening political situation in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East and by the slowdown in global economic growth that had resulted from the public debt problems in the USA and the EU. On 7 February 2011, the price of Brent crude dropped to its 2011 low of $ 99.23 per barrel, but then quickly recovered and never sank below $ 100 per barrel over the remaining course of that year.
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1111002331357/829378-1326493099587/ CommodityMarketsReview_January2012.pdf Section The Real Sector of the Economy Fig. 68. The Terms of Trade Index On 9 April 2011, the political developments in the Middle East and North Africa pushed up the price of Brent crude to its 2011 high of $ 126.9 per barrel. On 5 May 2011, oil prices experienced a strong downward adjustment: the price of a barrel of Brent crude shed $ 11.in one day (a 9% drop), thus returning to its March 2011 level. This adjustment was caused by fears that demand for oil would decline against the background of the latest (quite unimpressive) release of US macroeconomic statistics.
Over the course of 2011, the average price of Brent crude was $ 110.94 per barrel, or by 39.3% more than in 20101.
The price of Urals crude hit its 2011 high on 28 April, when it climbed to $ 123 per barrel (its historic high of $ 139.8 per barrel was registered on 11 June 2008). In 2011, the average price of Urals crude was $ 109.3 per barrel, which represented a 39.8% rise on 2010.
In 2011, natural gas prices in the European market rose by 26.5% on 20102.
The behavior of prices3 in the non-ferrous metals market went through a number of notable phase changes over the course of 2011. Over January-February 2011, prices were growingt rapidly, spurred on by political developments in North Africa and Middle East. Thus, in February, the price of copper soared to its historic high of more than $ 10,000 per ton. The behavior of the prices of aluminum, lead and zinc was more moderate. The prices of these metals were rising only in January, while in February they became stabilized.
http://www.lme.com/dataprices_historical.asp RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Average Per Annum World Prices 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oil (Brent), 24.84 25.02 28.83 37.4 54.38 65.15 72.32 97.64 61.86 79.64 110.$/barrel Natural gas, 4.06 3.05 3.91 4.28 6.33 8.47 8.56 13.41 8.71 8.29 10.European market, $/m BTU Gasoline, 0.792 0.755 0.891 1.197 1.508 1.81 2.06 2.703 1.68 2.$/gallon Copper. $/ton 1,578 1,559 1,779 2,866 3,679 6,722 7,118 6,956 5,149 7,534 8,Aluminum,. 1,444 1,350 1,431 1,715 1,898 2,570 2,638 2,573 1,665 2,173 2,$/ton Nickel, $/ton 5,945 6,772 9,629 13,823 14,744 24,254 37,230 21,111 14,655 21,809 22,Source: estimates are based on data published by the London Metal Exchange (London, UK) and the World Bank.
The earthquake in Japan caused a fall in metal prices. The biggest price-losers were pewter, nickel and copper. The prices of aluminum, lead and zinc were less affected by the disaster. And as early as late March the prices of all metals began to rise once again.
It should be noted that the non-ferrous metals market is heavily influenced by the situation in the foreign exchange market. From late March through early May 2011, the euro was strengthening against the US dollar, which became one of the crucial factors behind the rise in non-ferrous metals prices that was taking place during that period.
However, on having reached their peak values in April 2011, the prices of non-ferrous metals began to descend in May. Thus, in April, the price of nickel at the London Metal Exchange climbed to its post-crisis high of about $ 28,000 per ton, and then started to decline.
The main factor behind the downward trend in non-ferrous metals prices observed during that period was the contraction of demand for those metals on the part of their biggest consumers Ц Europe, hard hit by its budgetary and debt problems, and China, whose GDP growth rate had significantly shrunk by then.
The downward trend in non-ferrous metals prices lasted until the end of 2011. As a result, in December 2011, the price of aluminum hit its lowest level since July 2010. The price of copper shrank by 20.8% since the beginning of 2011, while the price of nickel dwindled by 28.8%, to its lowest level since December 2009. However, in 2011 the prices of aluminum, copper and nickel were by 10.5%, 17.2% and 5.0% respectively higher than in 2010.
After having reached their record highs in February 2011, the prices of food commodities and agricultural raw materials in the world market persistently declined over the remaining course of that year. In February 2011, the FAO Food Price Index, which reflects the monthly change in international prices of the basket of food commodities, including cereals, vegetable oils, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 237.91 - its highest level since 1990 when the FAO first introduced its food price index.
The second half-year of 2011 saw a drop in food commodities prices. In December 2011, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 211 points, which represented a 27-point drop on its record-high value registered in February 2011. That drop was determined by the sharp reduction in world prices for cereals, sugar and oils resulting from the good harvests in 2011, by the dwindling demand for those products, and by the strengthening of the US dollar.
http://www.fao.org/news/story/ru/item/119849/icode/ Section The Real Sector of the Economy However, despite the afore-said drop in prices in the second half-year of 2011, the global FAO Food Price Index averaged 228 points in 2011, which represents its highest level since the beginning of price monitoring. The previous record high was achieved by the FAO Food Price Index in 2008, when it averaged 200 points (Table 50) Table Changes in the Average World Prices of Some Agricultural Goods 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Wheat, USD / t Canadian, CWRS 216.8 300.4 454.6 300.5 312.4 439. US, HRW 192.0 255.2 326.0 224.1 223.6 316. US, SRW 159.0 238.6 271.5 186.0 229.7 285.Corn, US, USD / t 122.9 163.0 223.1 165.5 185.9 291.Barley, USD / t 117.0 172.0 200.5 128.3 158.4 207.Soya beans, USD / kg 268.4 384.0 523.0 437.0 450.0 540.Soya oil, USD / t 598.6 881.0 1,258 849.0 1,005.0 1,299.Rice, Thailand, USD / t 304.9 326.4 650.1 555.0 488.9 543.Raw sugar in USA, import price, 48.76 45.77 46.86 54.88 79.25 83.price c.i.f. New-York quotation, US cents / kg Source: World Bank.
4.6.3. Major Indicators of Russian Foreign Trade In 2011, RussiaТs foreign trade turnover, calculated in accordance with the balance of payments methodology, amounted to $ 845.2bn, representing a 30.3% increase on 2010, and a 10.7% increase on 2008. Thus, RussiaТs foreign trade turnover hit its record high since the beginning of its monitoring.
The export quota (the ratio of the value of exports to that of GDP) amounted to 28%.
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