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The volume of oil refining in recent years has been increasing at a faster rate than that of oil extraction, mainly due to a more rapid growth of RF exports of petroleum products induced by the lower exports duties on them as compared to the exports duties on crude oil. In 20052011, the growth rate of primary oil refining was 3.26.2% per annum (with the exception of 2009), while that of oil extraction was 0.82.2% per annum (with the exception of 2008). As a result, the share of the volume of oil refining in the volume of oil extraction rose from 42.5% in 2004 to 50.4% in 2011. At the same time, Russias oil refining efficiency over the last decade did not increase, and in 2011 it amounted to only 70.8%, which effectively corresponds to the level of 2000 (it can be noted that in the leading industrially developed countries oil refining efficiency is 9095%). As before, Russias oil refining efficiency and the quality of its petroleum products remain significantly below international levels.

In 2011, the largest volumes of oil were produced by the oil companies Rosneft, LUKOIL, TNK-BP, Surgutneftegaz, and Gazprom. These five companies accounted for 74 % of Russias total oil production. Medium-sized companies (Tatnef, Slavneft, Bashneft and RussNeft) accounted for 14.4 % of this countrys crude oil output. In 2011, the operators of production sharing agreements accounted for 3 % of all oil extracted in Russia. The share of all the other oil producers that comprised more than 100 small oil-extracting establishments amounted to only 8% (Table 24). State companies (federally owned) accounted for 31.1% of Russias crude oil output. For reference it can be noted that, in 2003 (i.e., before their takeover of the assets of private oil companies), the share of Rosneft and Gazprom in Russias crude oil output was only 7.3%.

Table Structure of Oil Production in 2008Oil extraction Share in total Oil extraction Share in total Oil extraction Share in total in 2008, m output of in 2010, output of in 2011, output of tons crude oil, % m tons crude oil, % m tons crude oil, % 1 2 3 4 5 6 Russia, total 488.5 100.0 505.1 100.0 511.4 100.Rosneft 113.8 23.3 112.4 22.3 114.5 22.LUKOIL 90.2 18.5 90.1 17.8 85.3 16.TNK BP 68.8 14.1 71.7 14.2 72.6 14.Surgutneftegaz 61.7 12.6 59.5 11.8 60.8 11.Gazprom + Gazprom Neft 43.4 8.9 43.3 8.6 44.8 8. including:

Gazprom 12.7 2.6 13.5 2.7 14.5 2. Gazprom Neft 30.7 6.3 29.8 5.9 30.3 5.Tatneft 26.1 5.3 26.1 5.2 26.2 5.Slavneft 19.6 4.0 18.4 3.6 18.2 3.Bashneft 11.7 2.4 14.1 2.8 15.1 3.Section The Real Sector of the Economy contd 1 2 3 4 5 6 RussNeft 14.2 2.9 13.0 2.6 13.6 2.Novatek 2.7 0.6 3.8 0.8 4.1 0.Operators of PSA 12.0 2.5 14.4 2.9 15.1 3.Other producers 24.1 4.9 38.2 7.6 41.1 8.State companies, total:

Rosneft + Gazprom + + Gazprom Neft 157.2 32.2 155.7 30.8 159.3 31.Source: RF Ministry of Energy; the authors calculations.

Natural gas production was traditionally dominated by Gazprom. At the same time, its share in this countrys output of natural gas in recent years has noticeably declined: from 83.2% in 2008 to 75.5% in 2011. At the same time, the share of other producers increased, including that of oil companies, Novatek, and the operators of production sharing agreements.

The share of state companies (federally owned) in 2011 accounted for 78.2% of Russias natural gas output (Table 25).

The decline in the growth rate of oil output can be explained in the main by the deterioration, for objective reasons, of extraction conditions. A considerable number of the currently functioning oil fields are decreasing their output, while the majority of the new oil fields are characterized by somewhat worse geographical and mining parameters, and so their development is associated with higher capital inputs and higher exploitation and transportation costs.

Table Structure of Natural Gas Production in 2008Gas extrac- Gas extrac- Gas extraction in 2008, Share in total tion in 2010, Share in total tion in 2011, Share in total bn cubic output, % bn cubic output, % bn cubic output, % meters meters meters Russia, total 664.9 100.0 665.5 100.0 687.5 100.Gazprom + Gazprom Neft) 553.1 83.2 513.9 77.2 519.0 75. including:

Gazprom 550.9 82.9 509.0 76.5 510.1 74.Oil companies 54.8 8.2 66.6 10.0 69.1 10.Novatek 30.8 4.6 37.8 5.7 53.5 7.Operators of PSA 8.5 1.3 23.3 3.5 25.2 3.Other producers 17.6 2.6 23.9 3.6 20.7 3.State companies, total:

Rosneft + Gazprom + + Gazprom Neft 566.1 85.1 531.2 79.8 537.6 78.Source: RF Ministry of Energy; the authors calculations.

4.4.3. The Dynamics and Structure of Oil and Gas Exports While the value of Russias exports of oil and petroleum products considerably increased due to the rise in international oil prices, its physical volume somewhat declined: according to preliminary estimates, net exports of oil and petroleum products in 2011 amounted to 373.3m tons (Table 26, 27). The share of net exports of oil and petroleum products in total oil output was at the level of 73.0%. Oil exports in 2011 rose to 48.1% of oil output. Over that year, the share of exports in fuel oil and motor gasoline production amounted to 89.5% and 55.5% respectively. At the same time, motor gasoline exports in 2011 rose by 12.4%, while the share of motor gasoline exports in its output rose to 10.6% (for reference: in 1999 the share of exports in motor gasoline production was 7.2%, in 2005 18.5%, in 2009 12.6%, and in RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 2010 8.2%). Besides, the year 2011 saw a noticeable growth of imports of oil products (by 1.4 times on 2010) and a decline in the share of imports in the coverage of domestic demand.

The share of imports in the total volume of motor gasoline resources rose from 0.6% in to 1.4% in 2010 and to 2.5% in 2011 (for reference: in the first half-tear 1998 share of imports in motor gasoline resources was 8.7%, in 2008 0.7%).

Table Exports of Oil, Petroleum Products and Natural Gas from Russia in 2002 2011, as a Percentage of the Previous Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 11 months* Oil, total 113.9 117.8 115.0 98.4 98.0 104.0 94.0 101.8 101.2 98.including:

to non-CIS countries 109.9 118.9 116.3 99.1 98.0 104.8 92.6 102.9 106.1 96.Petroleum products, 118.5 103.6 105.5 117.9 106.3 108.0 105.0 105.3 106.2 99.total including:

to non-CIS countries 119.1 102.6 104.9 119.1 104.5 107.6 102.0 107.1 109.6 96.Natural gas, total 102.4 102.0 105.5 103.7 97.6 94.6 101.8 86.2 105.6 106.* As % of relevant period of 2010.

Source: RF Federal State Statistics Service.

Table Relationship between the Production, Consumption and Exports of Oil and Natural Gas in 2000 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Oil, m tons Output 323.2 470.0 480.5 491.3 488.5 494.2 505.1 511.Exports, total 144.5 252.5 248.4 258.4 243.1 247.4 250.4 245.Exports to non-CIS countries 127.6 214.4 211.2 221.3 204.9 210.9 223.9 215.Exports to CIS countries 16.9 38.0 37.3 37.1 38.2 36.5 26.5 30.Net exports 138.7 250.1 246.1 255.7 240.6 245.6 249.3 244.Domestic consumption 123.0 123.1 131.2 124.1 130.4 125.3 125.9 138.Net exports, as % of output 42.9 53.2 51.2 52.0 49.3 49.7 49.4 47.Petroleum products, m tons Exports, total 61.9 97.0 103.5 111.8 117.9 124.4 132.2 131.Exports to non-CIS countries 58.4 93.1 97.7 105.1 107.6 115.4 126.6 121.Exports to CIS countries 3.5 3.9 5.8 6.7 10.3 9.0 5.6 10.Net exports 61.5 96.8 103.2 111.5 117.5 123.3 129.9 128.Oil and petroleum products, m tons Net exports of oil and petroleum 200.2 346.9 349.3 367.2 358.1 368.9 379.2 373.products Net exports of oil and petroleum 61.9 73.8 72.7 74.7 73.3 74.6 75.1 73.products, as % of oil output Natural gas, bn m Production 584.2 636.0 656.2 654.1 664.9 596.4 665.5 687.Exports, total 193.8 207.3 202.8 191.9 195.4 168.4 177.8 189.Exports to non-CIS countries 133.8 159.8 161.8 154.4 158.4 120.5 107.4 118.Exports to CIS countries 60.0 47.5 41.0 37.5 37.0 47.9 70.4 71.Net exports 189.7 199.6 195.3 184.5 187.5 160.1 173.5 185.Domestic consumption 394.5 436.4 460.9 469.6 477.4 436.3 492.0 502.Net exports, as % of petroleum 32.5 31.4 29.8 28.2 28.2 26.8 26.1 26.products * Estimation.

Source: RF Federal State Statistics Service; RF Ministry of Energy; Federal Customs Service; the authors calculations.

Section The Real Sector of the Economy After a significant drop in natural gas exports in 2009, when as a result of the sharp reduction in its deliveries to Europe it declined to 13.8%, in 20102011 the volume of gas exports once again rose and approached its pre-crisis level. At the same time, the share of net exports in natural gas output somewhat shrank from 28.2% in 2008 to 26.9% in 2011.

While the share of petroleum products in the structure of oil exports had somewhat increased, it nevertheless remained smaller than the share of crude oil exports in 2011 it amounted to 65.6% of the total volume of exported oil and petroleum products. The bulk of exported petroleum products was constituted by furnace fuel oil (which in Europe is used as raw material for further refining) and diesel fuel. And the bulk of exported energy carriers (in 2011: 88% of crude oil; 92% of petroleum products; and 62% natural gas) was exported to countries outside of the CIS.

An analysis of the changes in Russian oil exports over a long period of time demonstrates an increasing share of petroleum products, which rose from 18.2% in 1990 to 34.4 % in (Table 28). In conditions of shrinking domestic consumption of oil (according to our estimations, it dropped from 269.9m tons in 1990 to 138.1m tons in 2011), the share of net exports of oil and petroleum products in oil output rose over that period from 47.7 to 73.0%.

Table Net Exports of Petroleum Products in 20022002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Net exports of petroleum 74.8 78.2 81.4 96.8 103.2 111.5 117.5 123.3 129.9 128.products, m tons Share of petroleum products 29.2 26.8 24.3 27.9 29.5 30.4 32.8 33.4 34.3 34.in net exports of oil and petroleum products, % * Estimated values.

Source: RF Federal State Statistics Service; Federal Customs Service; the authors calculations.

These data point to a significant strengthening of the oil sectors orientation towards exports by comparison with the pre-reform period. However, it should be remembered that this phenomenon has been associated not only with growth in the volume of exports in absolute terms, but also with a significant drop in the domestic oil consumption as a result of market transformation of the Russian economy. Rapid economic growth in the years preceding the financial and economic crisis of 20082009 was accompanied by stable volumes of domestic oil consumption, which is a manifestation of a declining oil intensity of Russias GDP.

In 2011, the rising international oil prices triggered dramatic growth of incomes in the oil sector of Russias economy (Fig. 48, 49). The aggregate revenues from exports of oil and the major types of petroleum products (motor gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil) in January November 2011 reached the level of $ 235.7bn a historic high for the entire post-reform period (Table 29). For reference it can be noted that the historic low of revenues from oil exports was observed in 1998, in response to the drop in the international oil prices, when proceeds from exports amounted to only $ 14bn.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Revenues from the Export of Oil and Petroleum Products in 2000 2011, bn USD 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (11 months) Revenues from export of oil and 34.9 112.4 140.0 164.9 228.9 141.2 193.9 235.major types of petroleum products Source: calculations are based on data provided by the RF Federal State Statistics Service.

In 2011, under the influence of rising international oil prices, the share of fuel and energy products in Russian exports hit the level of 69.2%, including crude oil 34.7% (Table 30).

Table Value and Share of Exports of Fuel and Energy Products in 20052005 2008 2009 2010 bn USD %* bn USD %* bn USD %* bn USD %* bn USD %* Fuel and energy 154.7 64.1 321.1 68.6 201.1 66.7 267.7 67.5 357.2 69.products, total including:

oil 83.8 34.7 161.2 34.4 100.6 33.3 134.6 34.0 179.1 34.natural gas 31.4 13.0 69.1 14.8 42.0 13.9 47.6 12.0 63.8 12.* As % of total Russian exports.

Source: RF Federal State Statistics Service.

Oil Fuel oil Source: calculations are based on data provided by the RF Federal State Statistics Service.

Fig. 48. Mean Export Prices of Oil and Fuel Oil in 20002011, USD/ton Jul-Jul-Jan-Jun-Jan-Jun-Jan-Jun-Sep-Sep-Feb-Sep-Feb-Oct-Oct-Apr-Dec-Aug-Apr-Dec-Aug-Apr-Mar-Mar-Nov-Nov-Nov-May-May-Section The Real Sector of the Economy 110 55 0 m tons (left-hand scale) m USD (right-hand scale) Source: calculations are based on data provided by the RF Federal State Statistics Service.

Fig. 49. Exports of Oil and Petroleum Products (Physical Volume and Value) in 20002011, in m tons and m USD 4.4.4. The Behavior of Prices for Energy Products on the Domestic Market The changes in international oil prices in 2011 induced a noticeable growth in the prices of oil and petroleum products on the domestic market. However, their prices so far have not reached their historic peaks of July 2008, when the average domestic oil price (producer price) in dollar terms hit the level of 410.2 USD/ton, and the average price of motor gasoline amounted to 810.3 USD/ton. In late 2008 early 2009, in response to the decline of international oil prices, the domestic prices of oil and petroleum products likewise dropped in dollar terms. However, later on, as international oil prices once again began to climb, the domestic prices also demonstrated a significant growth (Table 31, Fig. 50, 51).

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