Table By Sector Structure of Foreign Investment in the Russian Economy in 2009ЦIn m USD As % of previous year As % of total 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Industry 32 980 47 558 61 145 66.4 144.2 128.6 40.3 41.4 32.Transport and 13 749 6 576 5 943 282.8 47.8 90.4 16.8 5.7 3.communications Wholesale and retail trade; 22 792 13 334 24 456 95.3 58.5 183.4 27.8 11.6 12.repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and personal and household goods Real estate, renting and ser- 7 937 7 341 9 237 51.6 92.5 125.8 9.7 6.4 4.vice rendering Financial activity 2 658 37 913 86 885 53.4 1426.3 229.2 3.2 33.0 45.Other sectors 1 811 2 024 2 977 36.6 111.8 148.1 2.2 1.8 1.Source: Rosstat.
Within the structure of foreign investment in industry, as seen by the results of the year 2011, the leader in growth was the mining sector (extraction of mineral resources); investments in that sector rose by 34.5% on 2010 (in 2010 - by 34.2%) (Fig. 45). The volume of foreign investment in the processing industry rose by 23.9% (in 2010 Ц by 49.2%).
Within the processing industry, investments in the production of coke and petroleum products increased by 19.4%, and those in the chemical industry nearly doubled, amounting to Section The Real Sector of the Economy $ 15.8bn and $ 4.4bn respectively (in 2010, the former index increased 2.5 times, and the latter Ц by 41.3%). Foreign investment in metallurgy in 2011 rose by 21.1% on 2010 Ц to $ 9.2bn (in 2010 - by 69.7%).
The volume of direct and other investment in industry rose on 2010 by 40.6% and 26.4% respectively (in 2010, the former index declined by 7.9%, and the latter rose Ц by 62.0%). The volume of portfolio investment in industry increased by 39.9% (in 2010 that index dropped by 41.6%). Thus, the share of the volume of other investment in industry shrank from 84.9% in 2010 to 83.4% in 2011, and those of direct and portfolio investment over the same period increased from 14.3% to 15.7% and 0.8% to 0.9% respectively.
Some changes also occurred in the structure of foreign investment broken down by type of economic activity in industry. Direct investment in mineral resources extraction in 2011 increased 2.3 times to $ 4.6bn, resulting in growth of its share in the aggregate volume of investment in that sector to 24.8% (in 2010 Ц 14.7%; in 2009 Ц 30.7%; in 2008 Ц 40.2%). The share of other investment in mineral resources extraction, which in 2011 increased by 17.8% (to $ 13.9bn), dropped to 74.4% (in 2010 Ц 85.0%; in 2009 Ц 65.8%; in 2008 Ц 59.0%).
In 2011, the bulk of the investment volume in the processing industry was also constituted by other investment, whose volume rose on 2010 by 28.0%, thus amounting to 88.3% of the resulting volume of investment in the processing industry (in 2010 Ц 85.4%; in 2009 Ц 80.6%). The volume of direct foreign investment in the processing sectors remained almost unchanged, its growth amounting to 0.8%. The share of direct investment in the processing industry in 2011 shrank to 11.4% (in 2010 Ц 14.0%; in 2009 Ц 18.5%).
Fig. 45. Structure of Foreign Investment in Industry in 2007ЦA noteworthy feature of the geographical structure of foreign investment flowing in the Russian economy in 2011 is the altered order of countries in the list of biggest capital exporters in the RF. In 2011, the highest volume Ц $ 20.3bn (10.6% of the total foreign investment volume in the Russianу economy over that period) Ц was transferred from the Cyprus, followed by The Netherlands ($ 16.8bn). The UK came third, its volume of investment in the Russian economy amounting to $ 13.1bn.
In 2011, the highest growth rate was displayed by investments from the Cyprus Ц 2.3 times on 2010; investments from The Netherlands increased by 57.2%, and those from Luxemburg RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks and the UK declined by 12.9% and 67.9% respectively. The investment flow from China shrank by 75.3% (Fig. 46).
Source: Rosstat. Data for investments from the USA are for 2009Ц2011; ChinaТs investments in 2007Ц2008 are listed as other investment.
Fig. 46. Geographical Structure of Foreign Investment in the Russian Economy in 2007ЦAs of the end of the year 2011, the accumulated foreign capital volume, less that of monetary regulation agencies, commercial and savings banks and including that of rubledenominated investments recalculated in US dollars, amounted to $ 347.2bn, which is 15.7% more than the value of that index as of the yearТs beginning. The volume of accumulated direct investment since the yearТs beginning increased by 19.8%, other investment Ц by 13.2%.
As seen by the results of the year 2011, the leaders in terms of the accumulated foreign capital volume are Cyprus, The Netherlands, Luxemburg, Germany, and China, their aggregate share amounting 63.5% (in 2010 Ц to 64.4%; in 2009 Ц to 66.3%). At the same time, the share of the top five investor countries in the other investment segment is estimated to be at the level of 63.2% (in 2010 Ц 64.8%; in 2009 Ц 62.9%), their shares in the structure of direct and portfolio investment is estimated to be 66.9% and 22.1% respectively (in 2010 Ц 67.1% and 21.9%; in 2009 Ц 69.0% and 85.1%).
In the structure of foreign investment accumulated as of the end of the year 2011 the share of other investment is highest and amounts to 57.1% (in 2010 Ц to 58.3%). The same index with regard to foreign direct investment is 40.1% (in 2010 Ц 38.7%).
4.4. The Oil and Gas Sector Oil and gas production remain the core sector of Russia economy, which has a leading role in generating federal budget revenue and this countryТs balance of trade. The factors that exerted the most significant influence on the development of the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy in 2011 were the situation on the world oil market; the situation on the European gas market; and the objective deterioration of the conditions for the extraction of oil and natural gas, which is associated with a declining production at the СoldТ deposits and the considerably higher costs of the development of new ones, especially in unpopulated areas with no infrastructure.
Section The Real Sector of the Economy 4.4.1. The Dynamics of International Prices of Oil and Natural Gas A decisive influence on the situation on the world oil market in 2011 was produced by the relative rebound of the world economy after the financial and economic crisis of 2008Ц2009.
The price of Brent in 2011 rose to the level of 111.0 USD/barrel, while that of RussiaТs Urals on the world (European) market increased to 109.1 USD/barrel, which is 39.3% above the previous yearТs level and 15.4% above the pre-crisis historic high achieved in 2008 (Table 17). The principal factors that determined price growth were as follows: an increasing demand for oil (Table 18) that resulted from growth of the world economy, and first of all the national economies of China, India and other Asian countries; the OPECТs conservative policy towards increasing the volumes of oil extraction in its member countries; the low rate of growth of oil production outside of the OPEC; and the drop in the supplies of oil from Libya as a result of the military actions in that countryТs territory. In conditions of the shrinking Libyan oil supplies, in April 2011 the international price of Brent surged to 123.1 USD/barrel To compensate for the decline in the supply of oil from Libya, and in fear of a negative effect of high international oil prices on international demand, some OPEC countries (and first of all Saudi Arabia) increased oil production in excess of the quotas established by the OPEC. This pushed down the international oil price to 110 USD/barrel (Table 19, Fig. 47).
In December 2011, on the basis of an estimated demand on the international market for additional supplies of oil, the OPEC increased the aggregate quota for oil extraction by its member countries to 30m barrel per day (including Iraq, on whose extraction volumes no restrictions had been imposed previously, and Libya). The new quota effectively corresponded to the level of oil extraction achieved by the OPEC in 2011. That level, however, is still below the OPEC countriesТ oil extraction level in 2008 (31.6m barrel per day).
Table International Oil Prices in 2000Ц2011, USD/barrel 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 Price of Brent, UK 28.5 54.4 65.2 72.5 97.7 61.Price of Urals, Russia 26.6 50.8 61.2 69.4 94.5 61.contТd 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 QPrice of Brent, UK 79.6 104.9 117.1 112.5 109.3 111.Price of Urals, Russia 78.3 102.2 114.0 111.5 108.6 109.Source: IMF, OECD/IEA, OPEC.
Table International Demand for Oil in 2008Ц2011, As % of Same Period of Previous Year 2008 2009 2010 World, total Ц0.6 Ц1.2 3.2 0.OECD countries Ц3.6 Ц4.2 1.1 Ц1. including:
North America Ц5.2 Ц3.7 2.0 Ц1. Europe Ц0.6 Ц4.7 Ц0.5 Ц1. Asia-Pacific Region Ц4.0 Ц4.6 1.7 0.Non-OECD countries 3.3 2.5 5.5 3. including:
Asia (without Near East countries and 1.7 4.4 7.0 3.former USSR republics) Source: OECD/IEA.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table International Oil Prices in 2011, USD/barrel January February March April May June Price of Brent, UK 96.3 104.0 114.4 123.1 114.5 113.Price of Urals, Russia 93.8 101.5 111.3 119.2 111.2 111.contТd July August September October November December Price of Brent, UK 116.5 110.1 110.9 109.5 110.7 108.Price of Urals, Russia 115.0 109.2 110.4 108.1 110.5 107.Source: OECD/IEA, OPEC.
The prices of natural gas on the international market are determined, as a rule, by the level of prices of alternative energy carriers, in the main gasoil/diesel fuel and fuel oil, whose prices, in their turn, depend on international oil prices. Therefore the movement of the international prices of natural gas follows, with a certain lag, that of the international oil prices.
The price of Russian natural gas on the European market reached its peak in 2008 followed by a historic low in 2010 (Table 20). In 2011, when international oil prices were on the rise, the price of Russian gas natural gas on the European market also rose significantly and amounted to 381.5 USD/1,000 m, thus climbing 28.9% above the previous yearТs level. At the same time, the prices of Russian natural gas were declining in response to the changing situation on the European gas market, namely the rising natural gas supply, and in particular, the considerably increased supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG), coupled with a lower level of natural gas spot prices by comparison with long-term contract prices (Table 21).
Source: RF Ministry of Economic Development.
Fig. 47. Price of Urals in 2008Ц2011, USD/barrel Jul-Jul-Jul-Jul-Jan-Jan-Jan-Jan-Sep-Sep-Sep-Sep-Mar-Mar-Mar-Mar-Nov-Nov-Nov-Nov-May-May-May-May-Section The Real Sector of the Economy Table International Prices of Oil and Natural Gas in 2002Ц2011, USD/barrel 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Mean international price of 24.95 28.89 37.76 53.4 64.3 71.1 97.0 61.8 79.0 103.oil, USD/barrel Price of Russian natural gas 96.0 125.5 135.2 212.9 295.7 293.1 473.0 318.8 296.0 381.on the European market, USD/1,000 m Source: IMF.
Table Prices of Oil and Natural Gas on the European market in 2010Ц2011, USD/barrel 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 QPrice of Brent, USD/barrel 76.7 78.7 76.4 86.8 104.9 117.1 112.5 109.Price of Russian gas on the European market, 273.2 291.4 306.5 313.0 329.4 360.6 401.0 434.USD/1,000 m Natural gas spot prices gas on the European 145.4 178.8 204.0 224.5 244.7 246.3 239.3 247.market (The Netherlands), USD/1,000 m Source: IMF, Bloomberg.
4.4.2. Production Dynamics and Structure in the Oil and Gas Sector Growth in the volume of oil extraction in Russia in the first half of the 2000s occurred in response to the expanding opportunities for exports, in particular as a result of the creation of the Baltic Pipeline System, a more intensive development of the existing deposits and the increasing investment potential of oil companies due to the rising international oil prices. In the following years the rate of oil extraction growth dramatically dropped. If in 2002Ц2004 it was at the level of 8.9 to 11% per annum, in 2006Ц2007 the rateТs per annum growth amounted to only 2.1%, and in 2008, for the first time over the recent period, the volume of oil extraction declined. This was a clear sign that the reserves for increasing oil extraction in this country through intensifying the development of the existing oil fields had been exhausted, and Russia had, from now on, to more actively develop new oil fields. In 2009, the volume of oil extraction once again began to rise, although its growth rate remained relatively low. In 2011, RussiaТs oil output rose by 0.8% on the previous year (Table 22, 23). This positive dynamics was determined by both the putting in operation of several big oil fields in the north of the European Russia and in Eastern Siberia and by some alterations introduced in taxation with the purpose of lowering the tax load on the oil sector, creating incentives for deeper oil extraction from existing oil fields and to encourage the development of new oil deposits in untapped regions.
Table Oil Production and OIL Refining in the Russian Federation in 2000Ц 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oil extraction, including natural gas 323.2 470.0 480.5 491.3 488.5 494.2 505.1 511.condensate, m tons Primary crude oil distillation, m 173 208 220 229.0 236.3 236.0 249.3 258.tons Share of oil refining in oil extrac- 53.5 44.3 45.8 46.6 48.4 47.8 49.4 50.tion, % Oil refining efficiency, % 71 71.6 71.9 71.7 72.0 71.9 71.1 70.Source: RF Federal State Statistics Service.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table Production of Oil, Petroleum Products and Natural Gas in 2000 Ц 2011, as a Percentage of the Previous Year 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oil, including natural gas con- 106.0 102.2 102.1 102.1 99.3 101.2 102.1 100.densate Primary crude oil distillation 102.7 106.2 105.7 103.8 103.2 99.6 105.5 103.Motor gasoline 103.6 104.8 107.4 102.1 101.8 100.5 100.5 102.Diesel fuel 104.9 108.5 107.0 103.4 104.1 97.7 104.2 100.Furnace fuel oil 98.3 105.8 104.5 105.2 101.9 100.8 108.5 104.Natural gas 98.5 100.5 102.4 99.2 101.7 87.9 111.4 102.Source: RF Federal State Statistics Service.
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