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Table Placement of Subfederal and Municipal Securities in The issuers share in the Issuance volume to domestic Subject of the Federation Volume of issuance (Rb mn) aggregate volume of borrowings ratio (%) issuances (%) Central federal okrug Kaluga oblast 2 500.0 4.5 39.Kostroma oblast 2 044.3 3.7 29.Yaroslavl oblast 2 322.1 4.2 20.North-West federal okrug Republic of Karelia 1 000.0 1.8 17.Komi Republic 1 154.8 2.1 42.Vologda oblast 2 510.0 4.6 21.Southern federal okrug Krasnodar krai 1 100.0 2.0 4.Volgograd oblast 3 400.0 6.2 23.Volga federal okrug Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan) 131.0 0.2 0.Udmurt Republic 2 000.0 3.6 31.Chuvash Republic Chuvashiya 1 009.6 1.8 26.Nizhny Novgorod oblast 8 000.0 14.5 12.Samara oblast 12 200.0 22.2 52.Ural federal okrug Sverdlovsk oblast 3 000.0 5.4 33.Siberian federal okrug Krasnoyarsk krai 9 050.0 16.4 59.Tomsk oblast 1 125.3 2.0 19.Far-East federal okrug Republic of Sakha (Yakutiya) 2 500,0 4.5 81.Russian Federation, total 55 050,7 100 9.Source: calculations by IEP on the basis of the Federal Treasurys data.

By today, a high level of secutirization has been exhibited mostly by the largest issuers: the Republic Sakha (Yakutiya) 81.7%, Krasnoyarsk krai 59.3%, Samara oblast 52.6%.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks The aggregate volume of redeemed regions and municipalities papers proved to be at Rb.

58.2bn greater than the 2011 volume of their placement, while the volume of net borrowings on the securities market in 2010 accounted for Rb 29.7bn. (Table 21).

Table Volumes of Net Borrowings on the Market for Subfederal and Municipal Papers (as Rb Mn) Consolidated regional Regional Municipal budget budgets budgets Net borrowings -58 202.6 -57 113.1 -1 089.Attraction of capital 55 050.7 53 366.2 1 684.Redemption of the body of the debt 113 253.3 110 479.3 2 774.Net borrowings 29 774.6 1 162.28 611.Attraction of capital 111 106.3 105 854.3 5 251.Redemption of the body of the debt 81 331.7 77 242.4 -4 089.Net borrowings 95 457.6 2 458.97 916.Attraction of capital 158 114.0 153 992.6 4 121.Redemption of the body of the debt 62 656.4 56 076.1 6 580.Net borrowings 68 851.3 4 133.72 984.Attraction of capital 178 565.7 177 324.4 1 241.Redemption of the body of the debt 109 714.5 104 339.4 5 375.Net borrowings 25 867.0 2 175.23 691.Attraction of capital 84 159.2 79 889.8 4 269.Redemption of the body of the debt 58 292.2 56 197.8 2 094.Net borrowings 36 489.7 35 161.6 1 328.Attraction of capital 73 288.6 66 524.8 6 763.Redemption of the body of the debt 36 798.9 31 363.2 5 435.Net borrowings 20 887.6 16 939.9 3 947.Attraction of capital 81 220. 5 75 016.8 6 203.Redemption of the body of the debt 60 332. 9 58 076.9 2 256.Net borrowings 47 880. 3 44 470.1 3 410.Attraction of capital 79 436. 7 74 995.9 4 440.Redemption of the body of the debt 31 556. 4 30 525.8 1 030.Net borrowings 41 908. 2 40 043.5 1 864.Attraction of capital 61 712. 6 59 012.9 2 699.Redemption of the body of the debt 19 804. 4 18 969.4 835.Net borrowings 17 696. 5 17 153.8 542.Attraction of capital 29 141. 8 28 169.2 972.Redemption of the body of the debt 11 445. 2 11 015.4 429.Net borrowings 6 601. 4 6 667.6 66.Attraction of capital 15 123. 8 14 226.9 896.Redemption of the body of the debt 8 522. 3 7 559.3 962.Net borrowings 1 877. 3 2 286.2 408.Attraction of capital 13 042. 2 10 090.2 2 952.Redemption of the body of the debt 14 919. 5 12 376.4 2 543.Source: calculations by IEP on the basis of the Federal Treasurys data.

Section Financial Markets and Financial Institutions Most regions which were regularly issuing bonds kept on doing so in 2010 too. More specifically, Volgograd oblast has issued bonds since 1999, Krasnoyarsk krai since 2003, Republic of Karelia since 2004, and Nizhny Novgorod oblast since 2004 (Table 22).

Table Registration of Issue Prospectuses of Subfederal and Municipal Securities in 1999Issuer 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Subjects of the Federation Volgograd oblast * * * * * * * * * * * * * Krasnoyarsk krai * * * * * * * * * Republic of Karelia * * * * * * * * Nizhny Novgorod oblast * * * * * * * * Tver oblast * * * * * * * * * St. Petersburg * * * * * * * * * * * * Tomsk oblast * * * * * * * * * * * Republic of Sakha (Ya- * * * * * * * * * kutiya) Yaroslavl oblast * * * * * * * * Udmurt Republic * * * * * Komi Republic * * * * * * * * * * Sverdlovsk oblast * * Republic of Chuvashiya * * * * * * * * * * * * Samara oblast * * * * * * * Kaluga oblast * * * * * Stavropol krai * * * Republic of Bashkortostan * * * * * * * Kostroma oblast * * * * * Ivanovo oblast * * Republic of Buryatiya * Vologda oblast * The city of Moscow * * * * * * * * * * * Krasnodar krai * * * Murmansk oblast * * * Republic of Khakassia * * Ryazan oblast * * * Khanty-Mansy oblast * * * * * * * * * Irkutsk oblast * * * Penza oblast * * Ulyanovsk oblast * * * * * Belgorod oblast * * Kurgan oblast * * * * * * * Moscow oblast * * * * * Lipetsk oblast * * * * Voronezh oblast * * * * * Novosibirsk oblast.

* Republic of Kalmykiya * Tula oblast * * * * Khabarovsk krai Kabardino-Balkariya * * Republic * * * * Leningrad oblast * * Yamal-Nenetsky * Bryansk oblast * Republic of Mordovia * Sakhalin oblast * Kursk oblast RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks contd 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 * Primorsky krai Municipalities Volgograd * * * * * * * * * * * Kazan * * * * * * Novosibirsk * * * * * * Krasnodar * * Krasnoyarsk * * * * * * * * Tomsk * * * * * * Ufa * * * * Electrostal (Moscow oblast) * * Smolensk * Lipetsk * * * Magadan * * * Bratsk * Novorossiysk * Ekaterinburg * * * * * * * * Klin district of Moscow * * * oblast Noginsk district of Moscow * * * oblast Blagoveschensk * * Cheboksary * * * Balashikha (Moscow oblast) * Odintsovo district of Mos- * * cow oblast Astrakhan * Bryansk * Voronezh * Orekhovo-Zuevo (Moscow * oblast) Yaroslavl * Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk * * * Novocheboksarsk * * * * Angarsk * Vurnarsky district of Chu- * vash Republic Town of Shumerlya (Chu- * vash Republic) Barnaul * Perm * Nizhny Novgorod * Kostroma * * Arkhangelsk * Dzerzhinsky * Source: MinFin RF.

Section The Real Sector of the Economy Section 4. The Real Sector of the Economy 4.1. Production Macrostructure 4.1.1. Major trends and economic drivers in Macroeconomic trends of 2011 were determined by factors having formed during the preceding two years of post-crisis recovery. As an outcome of 20102011, average annual rate of GDP growth made 4.3%, and thus, judging by this development indicator, Russian economy has achieved the pre-crisis level of 2008.

The analysis of financial and economic recovery drivers and conditions allows for identifying special characteristics of economy rehabilitation in 20102011.

25,20,15,10,5,0,- I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -5,2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* -10,-15,-20,-25,domestic demand global demand (export) GDP *preliminary estimates.

Source: Federal Statistics Service, RF Ministry of Economic Development.

Fig. 1. GDP dynamics by domestic and global demand components during 20072011, % to the respective period of the previous year Low investment activity is a real characteristic feature of the recovering growth of the recent two years. In 2011 fixed capital investment constituted 96.7, the amount of work in construction constituted 94.4% and the amount of residential space commissioned 97.1% of 2008 performance. In 1998 post-crisis recovery was completely based on dramatic business activity boom in the investment sector of the economy and was one of the key drivers for overcoming all the negative consequences of production shrinking. On the contrary, in 20102011 low investment activity during the recovery period was impeding the growth both in production and financial sectors of the economy.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Another special feature of 2010-2011 was pretty quick recovery of the consumer demand.

Household demand in 2011 exceeded 2008 level by 6.1%. Contrary to the situation of 1998 2001 when low consumer demand limited the pace of domestic market expansion, 8.1% retail turnover growth in 2011 versus 2008 supported by approximately equal increase of the real income of the population became the dominating driver of economic recovery, including recovery of the financial sector at the expense of intensive growth of demand for cash loans.

When comparing the processes of post-crisis recovery in 1998 and in 2008, the impact of foreign trade should be noted. In the environment of rapid global economic recovery after 1998 crisis and favorable dynamics of global energy and raw materials markets, Russian economy was able to restore its export during one year. After long global economic recession in 2008 Russia was able to regain its export at the pre-crisis level only in 2010, and as of the end of 2011 its physical export volumes exceeded 2008 level by 3.0%.

Given GDP growth in 2011 at the level of 4.3%, the domestic demand grew by 8.8% (in 2010 by 8.2%), including the domestic production by 5.1% (3.8%), and the external demand by 1.0% (7.1%) versus the preceding year.

Te domestic market dynamics was defined by the ratio between the domestic production growth rates for domestic and foreign consumption, on one hand, and imports dynamics and structure on the other hand. In 2010 the outrunning growth of the exporting sector defined the intensity of post-crisis recovery for domestic manufacturing targeted at the domestic market, but in 2011 acceleration of domestic production growth (5.1% versus 3.8% in the preceding year) obviously turned out to be insufficient to counteract the consequences of abrupt export slowdown. Eventually, in 2011 the domestic manufacturing growth rate made 103.7% and was 1.2 p.p. lower, than in 2010. Let us note, that slowdown of the growth rate was accompanied by maintaining high import dynamics.

20,16,12,8,4,0,- I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* -4,-8,-12,-16,-20,manufacturing for domestic market for export Domestic manufacturing * preliminary estimates.

Source: Federal Statistics Service, RF Ministry of Economic Development.

Fig. 2. Domestic manufacturing dynamics by components of usage in 20072011, % to the respective period in the preceding year Section The Real Sector of the Economy In terms of descending import, 2009 is comparable with 1998-1999; however, the recovery was completely different. 4.53 devaluation of ruble versus dollar in 19981999 resulted in dramatic fall of import efficiency in the domestic market and stimulated intense growth of import-substituting production and expansion of niches for domestically manufactured products (in that period domestic inflation was 251.7%). In 20082009 dollar versus ruble exchange rate went up only by 23.2% compared to 2007, which correlated with inflation growth rate. Quick recovery of global market demand starting from Q2 2009 and global prices change in favor of Russia throughout 2010 resulted in foreign trade price conditions index exceeding the post-crisis value.

In 20102011 the effective exchange rate of ruble got up and the domestic market situation was formed in the context of increased imports and pretty modest dynamics of domestic manufacturing of consumer goods. Besides, the recovery of demand for imported goods was supported by the maintained positive growth dynamics of the real income of population.

No large-scale import-substituting production growth was observed in 2009-2011 in the context of the ratio between ruble exchange rate and domestic inflation, as well as production dynamics and structure and lack of competitive back-up production capacities.

The out-running physical import growth rate versus export and GDP was a special characteristic in 20102011. As of the end of 2011, foreign trade turnover (physical volumes, as of SNA methodology) went up by 8.7%, including export by 1.0% and import by 21.5% versus the preceding year1.

40,30,20,10,0,- I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2007200820092010 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2011* -10,-20,-30,-40,-50,domestic manufacturing for domestic market imported goods domestic demand * preliminary estimates.

Source: Federal Statistics Service, RF Ministry of Economic Development.

Fig. 3. Internal demand dynamics by components in 20072011, % to the respective period in the preceding year Foreign trade turnover index value (balance of payments methodology) in 2011 versus the preceding year made 130.2%, export 130.4%, import 129.9% RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Domestic market expansion was an important dominating driver for post-crisis economic development in 20102011. In this context special attention needs to be paid to the following trend which is growing stronger: supplies of imported goods outgrow the domestic production dynamics. The domestic production targeted at domestic market needs was recovering very slowly despite the fact that during the acute phase of the crisis (2009) its fall had been not as deep as import shrinking.

The share of import in 2011 goods/materials retail circulation was 43%, including 33% for food products and 51% for non-foods.

Table Retail trade resources structure in 20102011, % Including Retail trade resources domestically manufactured imported Q1 100 56 Q2 100 58 Q3 100 55 Q4 100 55 Annual 100 56 Q1 100 57 Q2 100 58 Q3 100 57 Q4 100 55 Annual 100 57 Source: Federal Statistics Service.

In the producer goods market gradual raise of imported goods share was also observed.

The shifts in the overall structure of imported goods were defined by the trend for increased share of the intermediate demand goods. During H1 2011 the share of imported producer goods made 19.2% versus 17.8% in the preceding year, and the share of imported intermediate goods made 42.9% versus 40.7%. Despite the increase of imported producer goods share starting from Q3 2011, the share of intermediate goods continued to remain much higher than in 20082010.

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