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Table The Territorial Budget Surplus (Deficit) to Budget Expenditure Ratio (as %) Year Consolidated Regional Budget* Regional budgets 2011 0.2 0.2010 1.4 1.2009 5.3 5.2008 0.7 0.2007 0.8 0.2006 3.7 4.2005 1.6 2.2004 1.1 1.2003 2.6 2.2002 2.7 3.* With account of state extrabudgetary funds.

Source: calculations by IEP on the basis of the Federal Treasurys data.

Section Financial Markets and Financial Institutions Table The Territorial Budget Surplus (Deficit) to Budget Expenditure Ratio in 20072011 (as %) Budgets of urban year Budgets of intra-city municipal Budgets of municipal Budgets of urban okand rural settleentities in the city of Moscow and districts rugs ments St.

2011 6.15 2.10 1.13 0.2010 1.12 1.16 0.11 1.2009 0.63 3.32 1.88 2.2008 1.47 1.09 0.26 2.2007 5.34 1.23 0.04 2.Source: calculations by IEP on the basis of the Federal Treasurys data.

As of 1 January 2012, as many as 55 RF Subjects had executed their consolidated budgets (including territorial extrabudgetary funds) with a deficit (in 2010, the respective figure was 63 regions). The aggregate amount of the deficit was at the level of Rb 189.2bn, or 4.4% of the revenue part of their budgets ( 2010 Rb 202.5bn, or 5.2%).

The median level of the budget deficit accounted for 4.6% of revenues of a respective budget. Atop the list of regions with the highest value of the budget deficit to budget revenue ratio were Republic of Mordovia 21.4%, Sakhalin oblast 14.3%, Vologda oblast 14.0%, Smolensk oblast 12.6%, Republic of Khakassia 11.5%, Saratov oblast 10.1% (Table 18).

Meanwhile, 28 RF Subjects executed their consolidate budgets with a surplus (20 in 2010).

The aggregate volume of the budget surplus in those regions accounted for Rb 175.0bn, or 4.7% of the value of the revenue part of their budgets (in 2010 Rb 128.9bn, or 3.5% of the revenue part of the said budgets). The median value of the budget surplus accounted for 2.2% of the revenue part of the budget.

The highest value of the surplus to the expenditure level of the consolidated budget was reported in Nenetsky 18.8%, Irkutsk oblast 8.1%, Moscow oblast 7.6%, Tyumen oblast 7.2%. The bulk volume (84.3%) of the aggregate surplus of the consolidated regional budget was secured by 5 Subjects of the Federation: the city of Moscow 47.1%, or Rb 82.5bn, Moscow oblast 17.1%, or Rb 29.9bn, Tyumen oblast 7.7%, or Rb 13.4bn, Khanty-Mansy 6.8%, or 11.9bn, Irkutsk oblast. 5.7%, or Rb 9.9bn.

3.10.2. Structure of the Accumulated Debt According to the RF Ministry of Finance, the 2011 volume of the RF Subjects accumulated debt was up Rb. 72.6bn on a year-on-year basis and made up Rb 1,172.2bn (2.1% of GDP), while the respective increase for municipal entities was Rb 45.7bn (Rb 215.5bn, or 0.4% of GDP).

Table Net Borrowing by Regional and Local Budgets (as % of GDP) Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Borrowings by subfederal and local govern- 0,29 0,04 0,47 0,37 0,26 0,09 0,21 0,17 0,29 0,74 0,51 0,ments Including:

Repayable loans out of budgets of other 0,03 0,04 0,12 0,1 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,01 0,03 0,33 0,37 0,levels Subfederal (municipal) bonds 0,27 0,07 0,16 0,31 0,29 0,09 0,14 0,08 0,17 0,24 0,07 0,Other kinds of borrowings 0,01 0,02 0,19 0,6 0,03 0,11 0,10 0,09 0,17 0,07 0,Source: calculations by IEP on the basis of the Federal Treasurys data.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Meanwhile, according to the Federal Treasury, the 2011 volume of net borrowings by regional consolidated budgets stood at Rb 113,170.1mn, or 0.21% of GDP (Table 16). The volume of accumulated external borrowings by regional consolidated budgets shrank by Rb 16,172.0mn, while the volume of net domestic borrowings accounted for Rb 129,342.1mn.

Structure of borrowings The 2011 aggregate volume of the consolidated budgets borrowings accounted for Rb 604,708.5mn (1.1% of GDP), of which external borrowings made up Rb 785.3mn. Like in 2009-10, it was the Republic of Bashkortostan which became a sole region-recipient of foreign loans.

The aggregate volume of regions and municipalities domestic borrowings accounted for Rb 603, 923.2mn. The largest borrowers on the domestic market became: Nizhny Novgorod oblast Rb 64.4bn, Moscow oblast Rb 40.9bn, Omsk oblast Rb 29.9bn, Republic of Tatarstan Rb 26.1bn, Krasnodar krai Rb 24.6bn, Saratov oblast Rb 23.3bn. Their aggregate share in the overall volume of borrowings accounted for 34.6%. When compared with the 2010 figure, the volume of domestic borrowings in nominal terms was down by Rb 104.0bn.

Issuance of securities in the overall volume of consolidated regional budget accounted for 9.1%, loans out of higher-tier budgets (budget loans) 21.3%, other borrowings (borrowings from commercial banks and international credit organizations) 69,6%.

The most significant change in the structure of regional budgets borrowings became continuation of the 2010 trend to a relative increase in borrowings from credit institutions against a shrinking share of securities issues from 15.7 to 9.1% (Table 17).

Table The Structure of Domestic Borrowings by Subnational Budgets (as %) 2011 2010 Regional con- Regional Regional Regional Municipal Regional Municipal Regional Municipal solidated consolidated consolidated budgets budgets budgets budgets budgets budgets budget budget budget Securities issu- 9.1 10.9 4.3 15.7 18.1 4.3 24.9 28.5 4.ances Budget loans 21.3 26.2 24.0 29.0 26.9 31.5 0.Other borrow- 69.6 62.8 95.7 60.3 53.0 95.7 48.2 40.0 95.ings Source: calculations by IEP on the basis of the Federal Treasurys data.

The greatest net borrowings to budget revenues ratio was exhibited by: the Republic of Mordovia 23.1%, Vologda oblast 13.1%, Smolensk oblast 13.0% (Table 18).

The largest net borrowers became: the Republic of Tatarstan Rb 21.9bn, Krasnodar krai Rb 21.6bn.

To the greatest degree the accumulated debt was reduced by having the volume of repayment of earlier made borrowings be in excess of new ones: the city of Moscow at Rb59.5bn, Moscow oblast at Rb 38.8bn, Murmansk oblast at Rb 3.1bn.

Section Financial Markets and Financial Institutions Table Execution of Consolidated Budgets of RF Subjects in The attracted Borrowing reBudget deficit The deficit (sur- Net borrowings to Budget revenues borrowed capital The net borrow- demption expen(surplus) plus) to revenue deficit (surplus) (Rb mn) to revenue ratio, ing to revenue, % ditures to revenue (Rb mn.) ratio, % ratio, % % ratio, % 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Central federal okrug Belgorod oblast 84 315.4 2 123.5 2.52 7.39 2.44 4.96 0.Bryansk oblast 41 150.2 7.8 0.02 12.24 1.79 10.45 94.Vladimir oblast 50 771.3 1 976.7 3.89 2.05 1.70 0.35 0.Voronezh oblast 82 543.1 1 996.4 2.42 10.05 6.91 3.15 2.Ivanovo oblast 34 260.6 1 504.6 4.39 18.47 7.79 10.68 1.Tver oblast 53 877.5 3 694.1 6.86 18.61 10.50 8.11 1.Kaluga oblast 47 974.4 2 119.2 4.42 13.30 6.80 6.50 1.Kostroma oblast 23 864.9 1 241.8 5.20 29.36 4.78 24.59 0.Kursk oblast 44 902.3 2 056.9 4.58 2.30 1.92 0.38 0.Lipetsk oblast 44 493.2 2 048.2 4.60 9.23 4.90 4.33 1.Moscow oblast 392 927.8 29 846.8 7.60 10.40 9.89 20.29 1.Orel oblast 28 026.6 505.1 1.80 4.92 1.74 3.18 0.Ryazan oblast 44 050.8 3 381.5 7.68 26.41 8.48 17.93 1.Smolensk oblast 36 432.3 4 600.6 12.63 50.06 13.00 37.06 1.Tambov oblast 40 637.5 271.8 0.67 9.77 4.31 5.46 6.Tula oblast 53 856.5 2 806.6 5.21 12.51 3.83 16.34 0.Yaroslavl oblast 55 641.3 3 197.169 066.41 5.75 20.39 1.61 18.78 0.City of Moscow 1 525 923.7 82 488.0 5.41 0.98 3.90 4.88 0.Total 2 685 649.4 89 938.9 3.35 6.13 2.37 8.50 0.North-West okrug Republic of Karelia 38 546.6 90.0 0.23 15.28 0.70 15.98 3.Republic of Komi 61 801.4 1 112.3 1.80 4.41 4.10 0.31 2.Arkhangelsk oblast 68 072.6 5 388.8 7.92 20.01 7.03 12.99 0.Vologda oblast 53 292.2 7 460.3 14.00 21.49 13.14 8.35 0.Kaliningrad oblast 50 946.2 240.0 0.47 9.66 6.63 3.03 14.Leningrad oblast 85 989.0 2 217.1 2.58 0.71 0.07 0.64 0.Murmansk oblast 60 017.1 927.7 1.55 2.21 5.13 7.33 3.Novgorod oblast 29 760.2 73.3 0.25 13.47 5.99 7.49 24.Pskov oblast 29 423.4 267.8 0.91 9.58 9.40 0.18 10.St. Petersburg 422 000.8 2 850.5 0.68 0.46 0.45 0.01 0.Nenetsky 14 613.6 2 718.080 967.69 18.60 0.21 0.05 0.26 0.Subtotal 914 463.2 10 993.5 1.20 5.40 2.28 3.12 1.Southern federal okrug Republic of Kalmykia 10 065.7 272.5 2.71 5.41 2.97 2.45 1.Krasnodar krai 227 158.7 9 078.9 4.00 10.81 9.49 1.32 2.Astrakhan oblast 35 394.1 1 646.9 4.65 47.63 7.14 40.49 1.Volgograd oblast 83 755.8 7 578.0 9.05 17.32 8.46 8.86 0.Rostov oblast 142 158.3 3 202.5 2.25 2.92 2.62 0.30 1.Republic of Adygeya 14 145.6 410.4 2.90 5.90 3.92 1.98 1.(Adygeya) Subtotal 512 678.1 22 189.2 4.33 11.99 6.97 5.01 1.Volga federal okrug Republic of Bashkor143 901.9 5 053.4 3.51 2.69 0.83 1.86 0.tostan Republic Mary-El 23 173.8 1 182.5 5.10 13.79 5.90 7.90 1.Republic Of 35 716.6 7 643.4 21.40 28.79 23.11 5.67 1.Mordovia Republic of Tatarstan 200 245.0 14 205.4 7.09 13.04 10.95 2.10 1.(Tatarstan) Udmurt Republic 57 103.3 1 288.4 2.26 11.03 3.28 7.75 1.Chuvash Republic 40 205.6 265.9 0.66 9.60 0.37 9.23 0.Chuvashia Nizhny Novgorod 132 127.8 5 976.8 4.52 48.77 9.47 39.31 2.oblast Kirov oblast 51 580.8 1 456.9 2.82 15.56 5.73 9.82 2.Samara oblast 138 092.6 10 909.3 7.90 16.81 7.71 9.09 0.Orenburg oblast 81 619.2 652.6 0.80 1.65 0.73 0.91 0.Penza oblast 50 703.9 4 213.4 8.31 16.04 8.84 7.20 1. RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks contd 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Perm krai 114 314.3 1 171.3 1.02 0.06 0.01 0.08 0.Saratov oblast 81 296.5 8 216.8 10.11 28.67 10.94 17.73 1.Ulyanovsk oblast 43 337.4 1 777.8 4.10 8.96 6.87 2.09 1.Subtotal 1 193 418. 61 139.5 5.12 15.59 6.52 9.07 1.Ural federal okrug Kurgan oblast 34 795.0 815.4 2.34 1.72 0.56 1.16 0.Sverdlovsk oblast 195 319.8 4 036.1 2.07 4.65 3.80 0.85 1.Tyumen oblast 187 542.0 13 437.3 7.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.Chelyabinsk oblast 127 653.5 7 316.8 5.73 0.94 0.16 1.10 0.Khanty-Mansy AO 211 679.1 11 873.9 5.61 0.98 1.36 2.34 0.Yamal-Nenetsky AO 140 487.5 8 934.8 6.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.Subotal 897 476.9 4 208.1 0.47 1.44 0.51 0.94 1.Siberian federal okrug Republic of Buryatiya 47 618.8 261.4 0.55 5.70 2.27 7.97 4.Republic of Tyva 17 498.7 31.6 0.18 4.37 1.98 2.39 10.Altay krai 87 575.1 1 041.6 1.19 0.83 0.27 0.56 0.Krasnoyarsk krai 197 677.4 4 353.7 2.20 7.73 3.80 3.92 1.Irkutsk oblast 121 885.1 9 910.3 8.13 1.10 2.42 3.52 0.Kemerovo oblast 136 362.1 2 908.7 2.13 2.93 1.61 1.32 0.Novosibirsk oblast 119 827.2 1 263.2 1.05 10.57 2.80 7.77 2.Omsk oblast 72 871.4 3 353.6 4.60 41.04 5.10 35.95 1.Tomsk oblast 55 488.4 828.2 1.49 10.69 0.72 9.97 0.Republic of Altay 15 855.9 869.9 5.49 10.03 5.80 4.24 1.Republic of Khakas23 317.9 2 673.3 11.46 10.34 7.64 2.70 0.sia Trans-Baikal krai 51 204,9 2 506,9 4,90 8,40 2,16 6,24 0,Subtotal 947 183,1 5 856,3 0,62 8,62 1,85 6,77 2,Far-East federal okrug Republic of Sakha 130 474.4 4 681.4 3.59 2.34 0.37 2.71 0.(Yakutiya) Primorsky krai 109 222.7 2 183.1 2.00 2.58 0.66 1.91 0.Khabarovsk krai 87 489.7 1 070.9 1.22 1.39 1.00 0.39 0.Amur oblast 53 486.3 3 608.3 6.75 18.25 10.26 7.99 1.Kamchatka krai 56 318.2 1 323.2 2.35 1.84 1.27 3.11 0.Magadan oblast 23 645.1 836.4 3.54 4.86 0.97 3.89 0.Sakhalin oblast 57 804.2 8 270.9 14.31 9.83 4.57 5.26 0.Jewish 8 916.4 786.9 8.83 9.13 9.13 0.00 1.Chukotka 20 208.2 1 060.5 5.25 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.Subtotal 547 565.2 1 510.7 0.28 4.66 1.74 2.92 6.North-Caucasian federal okrug Republic of Dagestan 77 572.6 3 506.4 4.52 5.29 3.83 1.46 0.Kabardino-Balkar 26 471.3 49.3 0.19 5.67 1.13 4.53 6.Republic Republic North 21 023.7 1 248.9 5.94 20.69 6.16 14.53 1.Ossetia-Alania Republic of In18 873.6 965.8 5.12 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.gushetia Stavropol krai 88 729.1 505.8 0.57 10.89 4.31 6.58 7.Karachaevo-Cherkes 15 628.6 810.9 5.19 7.28 4.22 3.06 0.Republic Chechen Republic 81 537.9 1 491.4 1.83 2.82 2.08 0.74 1.Subtotal 329 836.9 6 646.9 2.02 7.00 3.27 3.73 1.Russian Federation, 8 028 271.7 14 188.9 0.18 7.53 1.41 6.12 7.total Source: calculations by IEP on the basis of the Federal Treasurys data.

Domestic Bond Issues In 2011, as many as 21 RF Subjects and 5 municipal entities registered prospectuses of bond issues (in 2010 17 Subjects and 6 municipalities).

The following regions registered prospectuses of their bond issues with the RF MinFin: republics of Karelia, Komi, Sakha (Yakutiya), Bashkortostan, Buryatiya, Udmurtia, ChuSection Financial Markets and Financial Institutions vashiya, Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar, Stavropol krais, St. Petersburg, Volgograd, Vologda, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kostroma, Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan, Samara, Sverdlovsk, Tver, Yaroslavl oblasts, Volgograd, Kazan, Krasnoyarsk, Novosibirsk, Krasnodar.

In 2011, the volume of placed bonds continued to decline and accounted for Rb 55.1bn vs.

111.1bn in 2010 and 158.1bn in 2009. The annual contraction in nominal terms accounted for Rb 55.6bn (53.3% in real terms). The volume of issuance of subfederal and municipal bonds over the year was down from 0.25 to 0.10% of GDP (Table 19).

Table Volume of Issuance of Subfederal and Municipal Papers (as % of GDP) year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Issuance 0.19 0.17 0.27 0.46 0.47 0.37 0.28 0.26 0.43 0.41 0.25 0.Redemption 0.46 0.23 0.10 0.15 0.19 0.28 0.14 0.18 0.26 0.16 0.18 0.Net financing 0.27 0.07 0.16 0.31 0.29 0.09 0.14 0.08 0.17 0.24 0.07 -0.Source: calculations by IEP on the basis of the RF MinFin data.

The largest securities placements were reported by Samara oblast (Rb. 12.2bn, or 22.2% of the aggregate volume of territories issuances), Krasnoyarsk krai (Rb 9.1bn, or 16.4%), Nizhny Novgorod oblast (Rb 8.0bn, or 14.5%).

So, the share of the top three largest issuers in the overall volume of issuances of placed regional and municipal bonds accounted for 53.1% (Table 20).

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