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Table Parameters of the Federal Budget, % of GDP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Revenue, including: 20.1 19.5 18.9 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.4 17.4 17.VAT 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.domestic 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.on imports 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.tax on profit 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.MRET/TEI (Tax on Extra Income) 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.on oil 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.on gas 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.excises 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.export duties 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.oil 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.petroleum products 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.gas 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.import duties 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.other revenues 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.Expenditure 21.5 21.2 20.1 19.7 19.4 19.1 18.7 18.4 17.Deficit/ surplus -1.4 -1.7 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 -0.Revenues from privatization 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.RF government debt 12.4 13.8 14.7 15.8 17.6 19.1 20.5 21.9 22.Section The Monetary and Budget Spheres contd 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Revenue at base price of oil (esti- 21.8 21.5 20.6 19.4 17.5 17.5 17.1 16.9 17.mate) Structural deficit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.Reserve Fund 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.National Welfare Fund 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.Source: Estimates made by the Ye. T. Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy and the Higher School of Economics National Research University.

2.3. Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations and Subnational Finances 2.3.1. Subnational budgets in Principal trends regarding relations between different levels of power are reflected in the structure of revenues and expenditures of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation.

Table 18 shows a share of tax revenues and expenditures of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation in the relevant items of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation.

Table A share of the selected items of subnational budgets in the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in the period between 1996 and 2011 (%) Tax revenues 49.5 53.1 56.6 49.2 43.5 37.4 35.1 39.6 36.1 30.9 31.8 33.9 33.2 36.6 37.2 33.Tax revenues 55.8 59.5 59.9 55.0 49.0 42.6 40.1 41.9 47.5 49.1 52.0 50.5 53.7 54.8 57.1 56.net of mineral payments and customs duties Expenditures 45.4 48.1 54.1 51.9 54.4 51.2 49.3 50 50.8 49.5 43.4 48.3 49.2 43.4 43.2 46.Source: Federal Treasury, Gaidar Institutes estimates.

The data in Table 18 shows that from 2001 a share of tax revenues of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation in tax revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation decreased below 40% and remained as such over the following decade (a minimum value of 30.9% was reached in 2005). Such a distribution of tax revenues among the budget system levels over the recent decade has to a large extent resulted from a higher growth rates in federal budget revenues generated from oil and gas1 vs. growth rates in tax revenues of subnational budgets. Furthermore, the global recession which came to a boil in 2009, resulted in a bigger share, an increase to 36.6% in 2009 from 33.2% in 2008, of tax revenues of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation in the respective consolidated budget revenues of the Russian Federation. It resulted basically from a slump of the federal budget revenues from mineral production tax and customs duties. Meanwhile, a share of re Pursuant to Clause 2, Article 96.6 of the Budget Code of Russia, the following federal budget revenues shall be deemed to be revenues generated from the production of oil and gas: tax on the production of minerals as crude hydrocarbons (crude oil, flammable natural gas extracted from all types of raw hydrocarbon deposits, gas condensate extracted from all types of raw hydrocarbon deposits); export customs duties on crude oil; export customs duties on natural gas; export customs duties on petroleum products.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks gional budgets, net of mineral payments and customs duties, also increased a bit by 1.1 p.p., to 54.8% from 53.7% in 2009, which was basically conditioned by steady inflow of revenues from personal income tax during the period of recession (Rb 1666,2bn in 2008 and Rb 1665,8bn in 2009).

In 2011, however, a share of tax revenues of subnational budgets in the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation decreased once again by 4.1 p.p. to 33.1% vs. 2010 (the value is close to a pre-recession value of 33.2% in 2008) as prices of exported energy recourses increased. In 2011, revenues from mineral production tax increased by 44.7% in nominal terms while revenues from customs duties, including the revenues generated within the framework of agreements concluded within the Customs Union, increased by 57.5% against 2010. As a result, tax revenues of the federal budget increased in general almost by 40% in nominal terms. Meanwhile, tax revenues of consolidated regional budgets increased merely by 16.7% in 2011 against the percentage reported in 2010. Therefore, in 2011 the decrease in a share of tax revenues of subnational budgets in the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation was basically conditioned by higher growth rates of tax revenues payable to the federal budget vs. the growth in taxes payable to subnational budgets. A share of tax revenues of consolidated regional budgets, net of mineral payments and customs duties, decreased less, by 1.1 p.p., to 56.0% from 57.1%.

However, a share of expenditures of subnational budgets in the consolidated budget expenditures of the Russian Federation increased significantly to 46.5% in 2011 from 43.2% in 2010, which, however, was by 2.7 p.p. less than the relevant value recorded in the prerecession period of 2008. Budget expenditures of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation accounted for 15.05% of GDP in 2008 and by 0.93 p.p. or 14.12% less in 2011. A share of regional expenditures decreased gradually in GDP from 2009 (max. value of 16.13% of GDP). It should be noted, however, that in 2011 subnational budget expenditures increased in real terms by 9.0% and federal budget expenditures by 1.9% against the relevant percentage reported in 2010. Meanwhile, federal budget expenditures tended to decrease in percentage of GDP (to 20.1% in 2011 from 24.85% in 2009) from the beginning of 2009, the same is true of consolidated budget expenditures of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation. The decrease in expenditures in percentage of GDP in the post-recession period was therefore partially conditioned by outrunning growth in the GDP itself.

Let us examine in detail the situation with subnational budget revenues. Fig. 17 presents the dynamics of the principal components of consolidated budget revenues of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation in the period between 2007 and 2011.

In 2011, consolidated budget revenues of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation increased in real terms by 9.9% y-o-y. A share of such revenues in total regional budget revenues decreased a bit to 69.4% from 69.6%. In spite of growth in tax revenues in the period between 2010 and 2011, the pre-recession level of 2008 was not regained. Tax revenues decreased in real terms by 4.3% in 2011 vs. the percentage reported in 2008. Hence it is a reflection of the fact that tax revenues of regional budgets failed in general to regain the pre-recession level both in terms of inflow volume and a share in total revenues (the value stood at 70.7% in 2008). In spite of a 13.5% growth in real terms in 2011 vs. 2010, non-tax revenues also failed to regain the pre-recession value (a decrease of 16.5% against 2008).

High level of non-tax revenues in 20072008 was secured basically by increased revenues generated from the use of state- and municipally-owned property assets against 20092010.

In 2011, these revenues increased in real terms by 17.9% against 2010 but failed to regain the Section The Monetary and Budget Spheres level of 2008 (a decrease of 17.0%). In general, this type of revenues accounted for at least 43.1% of non-tax revenues in the period between 2007 and 2011. As a result, while a share of non-tax revenues accounted for 9.8% of total revenues of the budget of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation in 2008, it decreased down to 8.7% in 2009 and 7.7% in 2010, but increased to 7.9% in 2011. The amount of transfers from the federal budget also increased in real terms and stood at 10.5% in 2011 against the percentage reported in (budget transfers decreased by 13.5% in the post-recession period of 2010 against 2009). As a result, the amount of transfers in 2011 was bigger in comparable values by 15.6% vs. 2008, which, however, was by 4.3% less than in 2009. Other non-repayable revenues grew in real terms by 3.9% in 2011 against the percentage reported in 2010 It should be noted that in spite of growth in this type of revenues, they have been accounting for 1.7% or less of the total revenues generated over the recent two years. Like in the preceding year, revenues from the Foundation for Support to the Housing and Community Amenities Reform accounted for a major part of other non-repayable transfers. In general, subnational budget revenues increased in real terms by 10.3% in 2011 vs. the percentage reported in 2010, but decreased by 1.2% vs.

2008.

Source: Federal Treasury, Gaidar Institutes estimates.

Fig. 17. Consolidated budget revenues of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation in the period between 2007 and 2011, by component (at 2007 values) The dynamics of principal taxes payable to the consolidated budget of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation in the period between 2007 and 2011 is shown in Table 19.

In general, tax revenues of consolidated budgets of constituent territories of the Russian Federation in percentage of GDP decreased from 10.01% of GDP in 2010 to 9.70% of GDP in 2011, which was even less than by 0.07 p.p. of GDP in 2009. The dynamics of specific taxes was multidirectional. Historically, there are two taxes which account for a major part of tax revenues of subnational budgets, namely corporate tax and personal income tax which accounted for about 74.4% of total tax revenues in 2011, a bit higher than in 2010 (73.2%) but lesser than in 2008 (78%). This can be explained basically by that profit tax revenues were much less than the revenues generated in 2008 (4.24% of GDP), although they increased by 0.19 p.p. of GDP and reached 3.55% of GDP. It should be taken into account that the regional RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks rate of this tax increased from 19.5 to 20% from January 1, 2009. Therefore, though the trend towards economic recovery continued in 2011 thereby resulting in more profit tax revenues, its share in GDP still remained too far from the pre-recession values. The dynamics of another principal type of tax personal income tax was not the same. Revenues from personal income tax were found to be most stable among other types of tax revenues of consolidated regional budgets amid recession. In 2011, revenues from this tax saw a decrease by 0.29 p.p.

down to 3.67% of GDP vs. 2010. The decrease in revenues from personal income tax in percentage of GDP from 2009 (when a maximum value of 4.29% of GDP was reported) can be explained basically by outstripping growth rates in GDP in the post-recession period against growth in the average gross nominal wages in the economy (which increased by 12.2 in against 2010, according to the Rosstats preliminary data). Furthermore, nominal GDP increased in 2011 by 17.8% y-o-y. Personal income tax increased by merely 11.4% in nominal terms over the same period.

Table Tax revenues payable to the consolidated budget of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation in the period between 2007 and 2011 (% of GDP) 2007 2008 2009 2010 Tax revenues, total 10.88 10.62 9.77 10.01 9.including:

Corporate tax 4.60 4.24 2.76 3.36 3.Personal income tax 3.81 4.04 4.29 3.96 3.Excise duties on products sold on the territory of the Russian 0.54 0.46 0.63 0.73 0.Federation Gross income taxes 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.Property taxes 1.24 1.20 1.47 1.39 1.Taxes, duties and regular payments for the use of mineral resources 0.23 0.25 0.19 0.07 0.For reference: GDP, trillion Rb 33.24 41.27 38.80 45.16 54.Source: Federal Treasury, Gaidar Institutes estimates.

The following should be noted through examination of the dynamics of other types of tax revenues of the consolidated budget of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation.

Revenues from excise duties decreased a bit by 0.05 p.p. in percentage of GDP in against 2010. Moreover, pursuant to the adopted amendments to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, the rates of excise duties will grow in the ensuing years1, which is likely to change the recently visible downward trend in the relevant revenues. A share of taxes payable by small businesses (on their gross income) remained almost the same over the period under review and stood at 0.4% of GDP, like in the preceding year. Property tax revenues also tended to decrease from 1.47% in 2009 to 1.25% of GDP in 2011 (which, however, is 0.05 p.p. above the level reported in 2008). A share of mineral production tax and other payable mineral payments in the regional budget revenues stabilized at the level of 0.07% in period between 2010 and 2011 after a stable downward decrease in 20092010. Such a small value of revenues from this source of revenues can be explained by centralization from of revenues from the tax imposed on the production of minerals as crude hydrocarbons payable to the federal budget2.

Refer to Clause 1, Article 193 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation.

The standard for payment of the tax on the production of minerals as crude hydrocarbons to the federal budget (save for flammable natural gas) has been increased from 95 to 100% since January 1, 2010 (under Federal Law No. 218-FZ, dd. 22.09.2009 On the Amendments to the Selected Legal Acts of the Russian Federation and Cancellation of the Selected Provisions of Legal Acts of the Russian Federation).

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