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Fig. 25. Quarterly Dynamic of Loans Extended to Private Individuals In Q3 2011, the share of ML in the volume of consumer lending added 3.13 p.p. vs. Q2010 and hit 13.25% (Fig. 26). The volume of consumer lending in Q3 2011 accounted for Rb 1,466.78bn (the proportion of ML therein making up 13.25%), thus having outrun the precrisis peak of Rb 1,275.46bn. (the share of ML 14.77%) reported in Q2 2008 (Fig. 26). The increase rate of the respective share of ML trails behind the increase in the volume of consumer lending. The pre-crisis peak values of shares of ML and HL in the volume of consumer lending (Q408: 18,5% and 22.24%, accordingly) were not attained either.

Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 26. Dynamic of the Proportion of ML Extended to Private Individuals over the Quarter in the Volume of Consumer Lending, as % Section Institutional Issues The volume of ML extended as of 1 October 2011 accounted for 1.22% of the respective GDP vs. 0.85% in 2010 and the 2007 peak pre-crisis value of 1.67%. (Fig. 27). The arrears by ML as of 1 October 2011 accounted for 3.54% of GDP, or 1.3% higher than in 2010 and 0.p.p. higher than the peak pre-crisis value in 2008.

Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 27. Dynamic of Mortgage Lending, as shares of GDP, % The year of 2011 saw continuation of the increase in the remaining Rb-denominated mortgage balances and decline in the share of outstanding payables in the remaining debt balances (Fig. 28). As of 1 December 2011, the Rb-denominated mortgage arrears rose by 37.3% vs. December 20101 and accounted for Rb 1,261.878bn. The volume of arrears was down 0.p.p. vis--vis 1 December 2010 and accounted for 2.06% of the outstanding payables. During the period in question, the volume of forex-denominated remaining mortgage balances tumbled by 12.4% and made up Rb 163,357bn, while outstanding debt was up 1.74 p.p. and hit the level of 11.72%. As of 1 December 2011, the Rb-denominated remaining mortgage balances in cash equivalent increased up to Rb 26,006bn, while the forex-denominated ones climbed up to Rb 19,152bn.

According to data of the Federal Service for State Registration, Cadaster and Cartography, as of 1 October 2011, private individuals had registered as many as 683,032 cases of mortgage lien with the United State Titles Registry Database.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 28. Dynamic of Remaining Mortgage Balances and Mortgage Arrears The year of 2011 saw increase both in remaining mortgage balances without outstanding payments and their proportion in the overall amount of the debt (Fig. 29). As 1 December 2011, the proportion of such arrears (Rb 1,324.185bn) in the total amount of the debt accounted for 92.91%, or down 5.08 p.p. vs. 1 January 2011. The proportion of mortgage arrears with overdue payments over 180 days (default loan arrears) in the overall amount of arrears as of 1 December 2011 was also down by 1.27 p.p. vs. 1 January 2011. In 2011, there was noticed a trend both to fall in the proportion of mortgage arrears with overdue payments over 180 days and decline in proportion of mortgage arrears in the overall debt.

Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 29. Dynamic of Mortgage Arrears and Overdue Payments in Terms of Payment Delays Section Institutional Issues In 2011, the weighted average rate by Rb-denominated mortgages disbursed since the beginning of the year slid from 13.1% as of 1 January 2011 down to 11.9% as of 1 December 2011 (Fig. 30). The weighted average rate by forex-denominated mortgages was also down since the beginning of the year from 11.0% to 9.5%.

Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 30. Weighted Average Interest Rates and Loan Term by Disbursed since the Beginning of the Year Rb- and Forex-Denominated Mortgages The weighted average loan term with regard to Rb-denominated mortgages extended since the beginning of the year was down from 16.36 years as of 1 January 2011 to 15.02 years as of 1 December 2011, while the weighted average loan term by forex-denominated mortgages made up 12.98 years as of 1 December 2011. (Fig 30).

The fall to 54.02% in 2010 in the share of the Top-Five assets-wise credit institutions in the overall volume of ML extended throughout the year was replaced between January and November 2011 with its rise up to 61.88% and redistribution of volumes between other groups (Fig. 31). In 2009, it was the third group which exhibited the greatest share of arrears (4.56%), while in 2010-2011 it was the second group whose mortgage portfolio proved the most risky one (4.65% 2010 and 5.12% in 2011). The second and third groups proved close to each other when it comes to volume of lending; however the third groups mortgage portfolio (2.80% of arrears) proved less risky than the second ones (5.1%).

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 31. Quantitative and Qualitative Expansion of ML across groups of Credit Institutions Ranked by Value of Assets When compared with Q211, the proportion of forex-denominated ML in the total volume of ML surged 0.35 p.p. and accounted for 3.2%, while the proportion of forex-denominated remaining ML balances in the overall debt soared 0.02 p.p., up to 12.79%. The proportion of arrears by forex-denominated mortgages between 2010 and 2011 varies between 39.06% and 43.4%, and as of 1 November 2011 accounted for 43.36% (Fig. 32).

Section Institutional Issues *as of 1 December 2011.

Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 32. Correlation between Rb-Denominated and Forex-Denominated Mortgages According to CBR, in H1 2011, as many as 131 organizations, including 19 credit ones, refinanced ML with the sale of the pool (rights of claim with regard to mortgage loans) worth a total of Rb 25.9bn (Fig. 33), or 9.5% of the volume of mortgage loans disbursed over the first half-year. The proportion of 102 specialized resident organizations accounted for 86.4% of the volume of refinancing, with no refinancing carried out by non-resident organizations.

Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 33. Dynamic of Refinancing of ML (Rights of Claim) As of 1 July 2011, the amount of early repaid ML accounted for Rb 100.3bn, or 36.75% of the volume of loans extended in the first half-year, with borrowers having repaid Rb 80.401bn with their own moneys. In the first half 2010, as much as Rb. 67.6bn was repaid, or 50.67% of the volume of disbursed ML (Fig. 34).

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Source: the CBR data.

Fig. 34. Dynamic of Early Repayment of ML In 2011, JSC AHML refinanced 40,255 mortgages for a total of Rb 51.3bn (Table 33).

Table Redemption by JSC AHML of Mortgages in Across all Standard Military Maternity Newly built Others products product mortgage capital housing Mortgages redeemed, pcs 40 225 22 719 9 829 3 053 4 437 Mortgages redeemed, Rb m 51 255 23 827 18 575 3 632 5 005 Average value of mortgage, 1 274,2 1 048,8 1 889,8 1 189,7 1 128,2 1 147,Thos. rb Source: data of JSC AHML.

6.6.6. Outlook for the Housing Market Forecasting the pricing dynamic on the Russian housing market in the previous years1 was built on the premise of the 2010 price stabilization and anticipation of the beginning of a price rally in 2011-2012; that said, the price rise was anticipated to be more moderate than in 200001 (with the trend taking the L-form).

The outlook for 2011 and beyond followed the methodology built upon the use of a mathematical model of correlation between price rise rates and the pace of increase of average per capita incomes for different types of markets2.

The data on the pace of increase of the populations real incomes and anticipated inflation was borrowed from the Medium-Term Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of RF for 2011 and 2012-133 and corresponding regional forecasts, with dynamics of main socio See the IET 2009 and 2010 annual reviews of the state of Russias economy.

Sternik G.M., Sternik S.G. Typology of real estate markets by propensity to generate price bubbles. Journal Property relations in RF No. 8 (95) 2009, p. 1828.

Sternik G.M. Methodology of forecasting housing prices due to the type of market. Journal Property relations in RF 2011, No. 1, pp. 4347.

Section Institutional Issues economic indicators therein being closer to average national figures, except for Perm krai1.

The type of the market assumed for 2011 was: for Moscow- an expanding one, for St. Petersburg, Moscow oblast stable in the first half of the year and expanding in the 2nd half-year, and for Perm (with account of a lower increase in real incomes and a higher inflation rate) stable throughout the year.

The comparison between the actual data and the outlook for 2011 shows that the latter proved true only partially.

In Moscow, the actual figures biased downward from the forecast, which should be ascribed to a smaller increase in the populations incomes vis--vis the governments forecast.

By contrast, real prices on the secondary housing market in Perm, Moscow oblast and St. Petersburg slightly outpaced the forecast ones, which can be attributed to the actual increase of the local residents incomes slightly outpacing the forecast value.

The outlook for 2012 was calculated following the same methodology and using the original data on the rate of increase in the populations incomes, as stipulated in the said Mediumterm program (Fig. 35).

Rb Thos/m Moscow background StPb- background Mosc.oblast background forecast 2012 Perm background Fig. 35. Offer Price Outlook for the Secondary Housing Market Given the instability and the impact of the ongoing socio-political and macroeconomic situation (relatively high oil prices, an appreciating Rb, and slightly decelerating inflation), the year of 2012 may see a slight increase in the populations incomes, which is the major Basic data for the development of scenarios of economic development of the Perm Krai through 2012 (main scenario factors). http://www.gorodperm.ru. They envisage slow growth of the real income of the population (2%) and greater regional inflation (12,5%).

Sep-Sep-Sep-Sep-Sep-Sep-Dec-Dec-Dec-Dec-Dec-Jun-Jun-Jun-Jun-Dec-Jun-Jun-Dec-Mar-Mar-Mar-Mar-Mar-Mar-RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks factor affecting the price dynamic on the housing market. Price rise rates can accelerate, should the populations incomes keep soaring. According to the outlook, the price rise rates in Moscow and across the other cities should make up between 11 and 14%.

6.7. Military economy and the military reform in Russia The transition to a new image of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation that started back in 2008 and continued through 2011 was clearly planned, as the Russian top military leaders affirmed. In practice, however, these plans proved to be unbaked and required online corrections and removal of deficiencies.

Likewise was the financial and economic support to the military construction. The encouraging statement made by Finance Minister A. Kudrin on the eve of 2011 that the ministries and departments will receive 98% of the budget expenditures for their full disposal1 have come to nothing. A new government arms program (GAP) for 2011 2020 signed by President D. Medvedev on the last day of 2010, was not aligned, as appears, with a regular federal target program for upgrading the military-industrial complex that had not been adopted in 2011. It is obvious that these events could not but affect negatively the quality of planning and execution of the state defense order (SDO) for 2011.

The 2011 results in the military economy and the military reform demonstrate that there are more than enough grounds to talk about serious problems and contradictions at the new stage of the military reform in the RF in addressing five key tasks set by President D. Medvedev more than three years ago2.

6.7.1. Structural transformations of the Armed Forces Even a recap of the organizational and structural transformations in the RF Armed Forces that took place during the last three years makes a great impression. Late 2008, a new military administrative division of the RF was established: four military districts were set up instead of six and accordingly four united strategic commands (USC) were established to control all military forces based on the territory of such districts except strategic forces. At the top levels of the military hierarchy, a tree-tier command and control system was set up: the district USC - operative command (armies) brigades and other military units. In 2009, the structure of the Armed Forces changed from the division-regiment based to the brigade-based one (except the Airborne Landing Forces and Strategic Missile Forces)3.

As a result of functioning of the Armed Forces in their new structure in 2010, a number of issues was identified including maintenance of the AF combat readiness at a high level and having a mixed compulsory and voluntary system of enlisted and junior command personnel.

The establishment of Aerospace Troops (AST) as an independent unit is a major structural innovation of 2011. To some extent this may be considered as a restoration of the ex-USSR Armed Forces type called national Air Defense Forces.

The division of the command and control functions into two branches during the last three years was another important structural innovation: the first branch was in charge for comprehensive support (Russias Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces) while the second branch in charge of the Armed Forces buildup, planning of troops employment and V. Petrov. In a week-s time.// Rossijskaya Gazeta.2010. December 2 (No. 272).

Russian Economy in 2009, Trends and Prospects (Ed. 31) M., Gaidars Institute. 2010. p.637638.

Russian Economy in 2009, Trends and Prospects (Ed. 31) M., Gaidars Institute. 2010. p.640.

Section Institutional Issues their combat training. The first branch is staffed mainly with civilian specialists (according to the practices of the civilized states) while the second with military persons. Note that the move to this structure that was selected back in May 1992 as the most reasonable for Russia took almost 20 years. At that time it was announced at a Joint Staff conference as a target set by the then President of Russia Boris Eltsin by the top military leaders: Minister of Defense P.

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