State capital investment. In January through April of 2002, state capital investment was financed in amount of Rb. 11.7 bln., what made 23.3 % of the year’s target. The financing of the Federal Targeted Investment Program accounted for financing in amount of Rb. 10.5 bln. in January through April of 2002, or 23.5 % of the year’s target, of which Rb. 9589.8 mil. were related to the item “Industry, power engineering and construction” and Rb. 896.8 mil. to the item “Financial aid to budgets of other levels.” In January through April of this year, according to Goskomstat, Rb. 2040.0 mil. (8.3 % of the year’s target) were spent as state capital investment in construction projects and objects included in the Federal Targeted Investment Program.
As concerns construction projects and objects of the manufacturing complex, in January through April the financing in this area made 7.2 % of the year’s target of capital investment, while for construction projects and objects of social sphere there were utilized 9.1 % of the year’s target capital investment.
On the whole, in January through April of 2002 capital investment in construction projects and objects included in the Federal Targeted Investment Program made Rb. 1837.7 mil., or 7.5 % of the year’s target. This intensity of utilization of state capital investment has been typical in a few last years, therefore it is rather difficult to forecast if the obligations related to the financing of expenditures in this sphere would be met.
FIGURE Utilization of state capital investment in January through April of 2002 as broken down by Federal okrugs, in % of the year’s target O. Izryadnova The Real Sector: Factors and Trends In January through April of 2002, the output of products and services of base sectors of the economy increased by 3.7 per cent as compared with the respective period of 2001. The economic growth was supported by the persistent positive dynamics of business activity across practically all sectors of the economy. As compared with January through April of 2001, the industrial output increased by 3.0 %, agricultural produce – by 5.2 %, construction – by 2.8 %, and freight turnover – by 1.9 %.
The real dynamics of product exports in this year are characterized by stable rates of growth. In the first four months of 2002, the increase in the volumes of export made 102.8 % as compared with the respective period of the preceding year, at the same time the value of exports fell by 13.0 %. The changes in the external business situation and growing world prices of hydrocarbon raw materials positively affected the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. According to preliminary estimates of the RF Ministry for Economic Development, in the first quarter of 2002, the increase in GDP made 3.% in comparison with the respective period of the previous year.
In contradistinction to year 2001, outpacing rates of growth in consumer demand as compared with investment demand. The turnover of retail trade increased by 9.2 % in January through April of 2002, while investment in fixed assets grew by 1.6 %.
An intensive growth in consumer demand accompanied by active social policies positively affects the political and economic situation. Consumer demand increases at the background of low inflation rates. As compared with the figures observed in December of 2001, the consumer price index made 106.6 % against 109.0 % registered in the respective period of the preceding year. As prices of nonfood products grow more moderately than prices of foodstuffs, in 2002 there was registered an intensive shift in demand and growing number of purchases related to durable goods.
It shall be noted that increasing consumer activity in the situation of significant decline in inflation rates results in growing propensity for savings. While in the first quarter of 2001 the share of savings made 9.4 % in the structure of household incomes, in the respective period of the current year it increased to 11.3 %. The confidence in organized forms of savings grows gradually. The share of bank deposits and investment in securities in the structure of cash household savings is steady growing, while the share of cash gradually diminishes. In January through April of 2002, the increase in real South Uralsky Central Sibirsky Far East Northwest Privolzhsky disposable incomes made 9.5 %, real wages – 17.4 %, real gross pensions – 25.1 %. The outpacing growth of wages, salaries, and other fixed types of payments being income-forming for the poorest groups of households facilitates the smoothing of social and economic differentiation of the society.
At the same time, the effect of factors determining the outpacing dynamics of retail trade turnover in comparison with real disposable cash household incomes is gradually exhausting, and the rates of growth in these two indicators are gradually equalizing.
The persistent positive dynamics of industrial output observed in January through April of were supported by growing output across practically all sectors. However, this year, as the business situation of the domestic market shifted, the sectors of investment complex lag behind the sectors related to the production of intermediate and consumer goods in terms of growth rates. While the volume of industrial output grew by 3.0 % in comparison with January through April of 2001, the increase in output of the investment sector made 1.6 %. The rates of growth in mechanical engineering made 1.0 % in comparison with January through April of 2001, while the production of the industry of construction materials increased by 6.5 %.
The investment activity was checked by deteriorating financial standing of enterprises in the real sector of the economy. In the first quarter of the current year, the balanced financial results of large and medium-sized organizations across all sectors of the economy declined by 43.8 % in comparison with the respective period of the preceding year. The decline in the balanced financial results was registered across all sectors of the economy, however, it was most pronounced in industry. In comparison with the first quarter of 2001, the amount of balanced profits in industry fell almost two times.
At the same time, the production of the consumer complex increased by 6.8 %. However, the trend towards a decline in the rates of growth in production of light industry initiates an expansion of the share of imports in the formation of resources of the consumer market.
In January through April of 2002, the growth in the export-oriented complex of the economy made 4.2 %, at the same time the production of fuel industry increased by 5.7 %. Non-ferrous metallurgy, where rates of growth made 108.7 % in comparison with the respective period of 2001, dominated other export-oriented industries in terms of output growth.
The potential for growth accumulated in industries producing intermediate products compensates for the slowing down rates of growth in output of final demand goods. Taking into account the dynamics of major components of GDP utilization, according to our estimates, its overall increase in 2002 as compared with the figures registered in the previous year will make 3.5 %.
O. Izryadnova IET Business Survey: Industry Long holidays have never facilitated a stable development of the Russia’s industry. Year 2002 was not an exception. The deceleration of the rates of decline in effective demand was interrupted, output fell sharply. Non-cash transactions, which were usually used to compensate a downfall in cash sales also suffered. Surveys registered accelerating rates of decline in promissory-note and off-set transactions, while the rates of decrease in barter deals stabilized. However, enterprises expect that the growth in both output and demand will recover in a few next months.
The traditional May holidays suspended the recovery of positive trends in the dynamics of key business situation indicators of the Russia’s industry. Both effective demand and output again began to decrease, and what is more, intensively. Effective demand has all at once “lost” 17 balance points and started to decline, like in January. Surveys have not registered such a sharp monthly slump for a very long time. Cash sales declined across all industries except non-ferrous metallurgy, chemistry, petrochemistry, and the industry of construction materials. It shall be noted that over the period of the postdefault growth an absolute decrease in effective demand has been never registered in May yet.
Certainly, there had been observed a slowdown in the growth of sales, but never such an intensive downfall, although the decline in cash sales gradually decelerated over the three preceding months and there arose hopes for the recovery of the absolute growth.
The May holidays also affected the dynamics of non-cash transactions. In the first months of 2002, surveys registered a slight but steady deceleration in the rates of their decline, what might be explained by attempts of enterprises to increase volumes of sales at the background of decreasing amount of cash sales. In May, the decline in business activity was so pronounced that this trend was disrupted.
Surveys have registered accelerating rates of decrease in promissory-note and off-set deals and the stabilization of rates of decline in barter, while the amount of effective demand fell so sharply.
However, enterprises might refuse to increase sales at the expense of non-cash transactions hoping for the recovery of growth in cash sales in June and July.
Enterprise evaluations of the amount of effective demand (scale of evaluations – “above normal – normal – below normal) demonstrated that serious sales problems persist in industry. Since December of 2001, the share of responses “below normal” has fluctuated around 70 %, although a year ago this indicator was by 8 to 10 p. p. better (lower). Such a pronounced decline in the amounts of sales in May (even as adjusted for the seasonality) was not expected by enterprises, and it is too early to state that the negative trends of the last months have reached the turning point.
The persisting sales problems determine the more and more massive decline in real profits of the Russia’s industry. In May, the share of enterprises reporting a decrease in profits reached 51 %. In February of 2002 (the first year the monitoring of this indicator was started) the share of such responses made 40 %. The most intensive decrease in profits is at present registered in power engineering, light industry, and forestry complex. No industry registered growth.
In May, surveys also registered the most sharp deceleration in the rates of growth of output. Over the month, the balance decreased from +16 % to –15 %, i.e. after a decent (for the last months) growth, there was registered a seasonal decline only slightly less pronounced than in January (2002).
An absolute decrease in output was registered across all industries except construction materials industry and food industry. However, these industries also demonstrated slower rates of growth as compared with April figures.
The fall in output has allowed enterprises to retain the previous evaluations of stocks of finished goods even in the situation where all types of demand contracted. On the whole, surveys have registered excessive stocks across all industries since early 2001, what may be explained by the fact that enterprises started to use finished stocks as a cushion against sudden changes in demand.
Forecasts of changes in effective demand became more positive and were among the best in the current year. About one third of enterprises expect an increase in cash demand for their products. The largest number of such expectations was registered in the industry of construction materials, metallurgy, chemistry, and petro-chemistry. Only enterprises of light industry and power engineering foresee a decline in sales.
However, it becomes more and more difficult to rely only on cash sales. In order to guarantee sales, enterprises have to turn to non-cash transactions even on the stage of planning. In May, surveys registered expectations of a growth in barter, promissory notes, and set-off sales. Such a development has been registered for the first time over the period of the post-default growth. Although the possible increase in barter transactions is yet minimal, but it is the first step… A soon growth in barter is expected in chemistry, petro-chemistry, forestry complex, construction, and light industry.
After two months of relative pessimism, estimates of changes in output have again reached best values registered over the last years. A rather intensive growth in output is possible in all industries except power engineering and light industry. It looks probable that enterprises have overcome their investment pessimism. In the few next months, there is planned to increase purchases of both domestic and imported machinery and equipment.
S.Tsukhlo Foreign Trade In March of 2002, the Russia’s foreign trade turnover (according to the balance of payment method) increased by 0.5 % in comparison with the respective indicator of the preceding year and made US $ 13.33 bln. In comparison with the figures registered in February of 2002, this indicator increased by 21 %. The amount of exports made US $ 8.58 bln., while imports reached US $ 4.74 bln.
The positive balance of trade made US $ 3.8 billion (the maximal value in the last 8 months). While in comparison with the respective period of the preceding year this indicator fell by 21 %, it increased by 30 % as compared with the figures registered in this February.
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