Table Placement of Subfederal and Municipal Bonds in The issuer’s share on Volume of issue (as Issue volume to domestic Subject of the Federation the total volume of Rb. Thousand.) borrowings (as %) issue (as %) Central Federal Okrug Belgorod oblast 538 633.2 0.3 8.Tver oblast 3 000 000.0 1.9 31.Kostroma oblast 1 222 109.2 0.8 19.Moscow oblast 3 431 367.4 2.2 4.Yaroslavl oblast 1 861 822.0 1.2 15.The city of Moscow 115 420 335.5 73.0 89.North-Western Federal Okrug Republic of Karelia 1 000 000.0 0.6 18.Southern Federal Okrug Kalmyk Republic 74 094.0 … 11.Volgograd oblast 2 446 680.0 1.5 20.Volga Federal Okrug Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan) 2 000 000.0 1.3 5.Republic of Udmurtia 919 740.0 0.6 16.Nizhny Novgorod oblast 3 000 000.0 1.9 9.Samara oblast 2 425 000.0 1.5 34.Ural Federal Okrug Khanty-Mansy AO 6 000 000.0 3.8 75.Siberian Federal Okrug Krasnoyarsk Krai 10 369 900.0 6.6 67.Irkutsk oblast 1 566 640.0 1.0 16.Tomsk oblast 2 837 713.0 1.8 26.Russian Federation, total: 158 114 034.3 100 25.Source: calculations by IET on the basis of the Russian Ministry of Finance data.
It has been chiefly the largest issuers that demonstrated the highest degree of securitization of their debt. More specifically, the respective rate of the city of Moscow is 89.9%, KhantyMansy AO -75.0%, Krasnoyarsk Krai – 67.6%.
The 2009 aggregate volume of net borrowings on the market accounted for Rb. 97.9bn, or 24.9bn (23.3%) up in real terms vs. the 2008 figures. Meanwhile, the volume of redeemed municipal bonds was at Rb. 2.5bn greater that the volume of newly placed ones (Table. 8).
Table Volume of Net Borrowing on the market for Sub- Consolidated regional Regional budgets Municipal budgets federal and Municipal Bonds, as Rb. thousand budget Net borrowing 95 457 576.8 97 916 509.1 –2 458 932.Attracted capital 158 114 034.3 153 992 570.1 4 121 464.Redemption of the principal debt 62 656 457.5 56 076 061.0 6 580 396.Net borrowing 68 851 271.9 72 984 947.8 –4 133 675.Attracted capital 178 565 731.4 177 324 359.3 1 241 372.Redemption of the principal debt 109 714 459.5 104 339 411.5 5 375 048.Net borrowing 25 867 011 23 691 970 2 175 Attracted capital 84 159 197 79 889 761 4 269 Redemption of the principal debt 58 292 185 56 197 791 2 094 Net borrowing 36 489 742 35 161 627 1 328 Attracted capital 73 288 653 66 524 832 6 763 Redemption of the principal debt 36 798 911 31 363 205 5 435 Net borrowing 20 887 596 16 939 894 3 947 Attracted capital 81 220 540 75 016 756 6 203 Section Monetary and Budgetary Spheres Volume of Net Borrowing on the market for Sub- Consolidated regional Regional budgets Municipal budgets federal and Municipal Bonds, as Rb. thousand budget Redemption of the principal debt 60 332 944 58 076 863 2 256 Net borrowing 47 880 300 44 470 128 3 410 Attracted capital 79 436 708 74 995 965 4 440 Redemption of the principal debt 31 556 408 30 525 837 1 030 Net borrowing 41 908 199 40 043 511 1 864 Attracted capital 61 712 635 59 012 901 2 699 Redemption of the principal debt 19 804 436 18 969 390 835 Net borrowing 17 696 530 17 153 760 542 Attracted capital 29 141 777 28 169 158 972 Redemption of the principal debt 11 445 247 11 015 398 429 Net borrowing 6 601 447 6 667 592 –66 Attracted capital 15 123 785 14 226 931 896 Redemption of the principal debt 8 522 338 7 559 339 962 Net borrowing –1 877 328 –2 286 175 408 Attracted capital 13 042 220 10 090 208 2 952 Redemption of the principal debt 14 919 548 12 376 383 2 543 Source: the RF Ministry of Finance Most regions that regularly issue bonds continued doing so in 2009. More specifically, the Republic of Chuvashia has regularly issued bonds since 1999, Volgograd oblast- since 2000, Irkutsk oblast – since 2001, Krasnoyarsk Krai- since 2003 (Table 9).
Table Registration of Prospectuses of Issues of Subfederal and Municipal Bonds in 1999–Issuer 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Subjects of the Federation Republic of Chuvashia * * * * * * * * * * * Volgograd oblast * * * * * * * * * * * Irkutsk oblast * * * * * * * * * Krasnoyarsk Krai * * * * * * * Republic of Karelia * * * * * * Nizhny Novgorod oblast * * * * * * Tver oblast * * * * * * * Samara oblast * * * * * * The city of Moscow * * * * * * * * * * Khanty-Mansy АО * * * St. Petersburg * * * * * * * * * * Tomsk oblast * * * * * * * * * Moscow oblast * * * * * * * Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) * * * * * * * Yaroslavl oblast * * * * * * Lipetsk oblast * * * * * Kaluga oblast * * * * Penza oblast * * * Republic of Udmurtia * * * Ulyanovsk oblast * * Republic of Komi * * * * * * * * Belgorod oblast * * * * * Kurgan oblast * * Stavropol Krai * * Republic of Bashkortostan * * * * * * Voronezh oblast * * * * RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Issuer 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Irkutsk oblast * * Novosibirsk oblast * * * * * Kostroma oblast * * * * Krasnodar Krai * * Ivanovo oblast * Republic of Kalmykia * Tula oblast * Khabarovsk Krai * * * * Kabardino-Balkar Republic * * Leningrad oblast * * * * Yammal-Nenetsk АО * * Bryansk oblast * Murmansk oblast * * Republic of Mordovia * Sakhalin oblast * Kursk oblast * Primorsky Krai * Municipalities Krasnoyarsk * * * * * * Volgograd * * * * * * * * * Kazan * * * * Elektrostal (Moscow oblast) * * Smolensk * Tomsk * * * * * Lipetsk * * * Magadan * * * Bratsk * Novorossiysk * Yekaterinburg * * * * * * * * Klinsky district, Moscow oblast * * * Noginsly district, Moscow oblast * * * Blagoveshchensk * * Cheboksary * * * Balashikha (Moscow oblast) * Novosibirsk * * * * Odinstovsky district (Moscow * * oblast) Astrakhan * Bryansk * Voronezh * Orekhovo-Zuevo, Moscow oblast * Yaroslavl * Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk * * * Novocheboksarsk * * * * Angarsk * Vurnarsky district, Republic of * Chuvashia Shumerlya, * Republic of Chuvashia Ufa * * * Barnaul * Perm * Nizhny Novgorod * Kostroma * * Arkhangel’ * Dzerzhinsky * Source: MinFin RF.
Section Monetary and Budgetary Spheres Credibility of the Territorial Governments Credit Rating Russia’s 2009 sovereign rating by forex-denominated obligations granted by Standard&Poor's and Fitch Ratings remained unchanged at the level of ВВВ. Meanwhile, both agencies raised the rating dynamic forecast from “negative” to “stable”. In the first half 2008, the country’s rating was ВВВ+ (positive forecast).
In 2009, having raised Russia’s credit rating, Standard&Poor's also raised those of the city of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Tomsk oblast to “stable”. At the same time the agency lowered its credit rating forecasts to “negative” for Volgograd and Vologda oblasts, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Novgorod oblast, Novosibirsk, Samara oblast, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Tver oblast and suspended Moscow oblast’s credit rating and revoked those of Kaluga oblast, Republic of Tatarstan, the city of Bratsk, the town of Balashikha, Klinsky district, and Omsk. (Table. 10).
Table Standard&Poor’s Ratings in the 1st Quarter Issuer Denominated in foreign exchange /Forecast In the domestic currency/ Forecast Sovereign ratings Russian Federation «BBB»/Stable/ «ВВВ+»/Stable/ Regional and local government ratings Bashkortostan BB+/Stable/ BB+/Stable/ Bratsk revoked Volgograd oblast BB–/Negative/ BB–/Negative/ Vologda oblast BB–/Negative/ BB–/Negative/ Urban district Balashikha revoked Dzerzhinsk B–/Stable/ B–/Stable/ Irkutsk oblast B/Stable/ B/Stable/ Kaluga oblast evoked Klinsky district evoked Krasnodar Krai BB/Stable/ BB/Stable/ Krasnoyarsk Krai BB+/Negative/ BB+/Negative/ Lenigrad oblast BB/Stable/ BB/Stable/ City of Moscow BBB/Stable/ BBB/Stable/ Moscow oblast suspended Nizhny Novgorod BB–/Stable/ BB–/Stable/ Novgorod oblast B/Negative/ B/Negative/ Novosibirsk BB–/Negative/ BB–/Negative/ Omsk revoked Samara oblast BB+/Negative/ BB+/Negative/ St. Petersburg BBB/Stable/ BBB/Stable/ Sakha (Yakutia) BB–/Negative/ BB–/Negative/ Sverdlovsk oblast BB/Stable/ BB/Stable/ Stavropol Krai B+/Stable/ B+/Stable/ Surgut BB–/Stable/ BB–/Stable/ Tatarstan revoked Tver oblast B+/Negative/ B+/Negative/ Tomsk oblast B–/Stable/ B–/Stable/ Ufa BB–/Stable/ BB–/Stable/ Khanty-Mansy autonomous okrug BBB–/Negative/ BBB–/Negative/ Yamalo-Nenetsky autonomous okrug BB+/Stable/ BB+/Stable/ Source: Standard&Poor’s.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 2.5. The Scenarios of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Economy in the 2010–2012 period Prerequisites For the purpose of analyzing the stability of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, the main three scenarios of development of internal and external economic processes in the mid-term prospect (the 2009-2012 period) are considered herein. The above period can be unambiguously defined as the period of exit from the crisis. It should be noted right away that in all the scenarios the main principles of the economic policy of the Russian government irrespective of the dynamics of economic indices, situation on foreign markets and the course of the election campaign in 2011 and 2012 are assumed to be unchanged.
The most probable scenarios include the following:
1. The scenario of inertial exit from the crisis;
2. The scenario of rapid exit from the crisis;
3. The scenario of delayed exit (“the second wave”) from the crisis.
1. The Scenario of inertial exit from the crisis corresponds in its main preconditions to the base scenario of social and economic development of the Russian Federation developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia as the basis of the draft federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2010 and planned for 2011 and 2012.
It is assumed, in particular, that the economies of the leading countries are likely to overcome the crisis in the year 2011, while in Russia due to its high dependence on global commodity markets the sustained economic growth may start even later. The adopted crisis exit strategies will ensure a smooth switchover (without a new distress) from the aggressive anticrisis policy pursued by many states to a reduction of the debt burden accrued during the crisis and a “disposal” of nationalized capital assets and financial assets. In 2010, the global economic growth will not exceed 0.5–1% (mostly due to high growth rates in China, India, Brazil and other developing countries, while in the USA and the EU states growth rates are low, but positive), while in 2011-2012 it will amount to 2.5–3.0% a year. In other words, in the period under review the global economic growth will be slower than that which was observed prior to the 2008 crisis.
The forecast of smooth exit by the world’s leading economies from the crisis without serious changes in the structure of the global economy made means that exchange rates of the world’s leading currencies will remain practically unchanged. It is expected, in particular, that despite problems of some countries in the Euro zone (primarily in Greece, Spain and Portugal) the Euro currency will remain stable, and within the framework of this scenario the USD/Euro exchange rate is expected to be at the level of 1.35–1.4 in the 2010-2012 period.
Accordingly, oil prices on the world market will remain practically unchanged; additional demand in oil and petrochemicals due to economic growth in China and developing countries in the above period can be compensated by OPEC and other oil-producing countries’ return to its former production volumes (since summer 2008 OPEC has repeatedly passed decisions on reduction of oil production quotas). As in the updated scenario prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, it is assumed that in 2010 the price of oil (Urals) will amount, on average, to 65 USD/barrel, while in the 2011-2012 period, to 70 USD/barrel.
Section Monetary and Budgetary Spheres Due to such a level of oil prices on the world market, there are no reasons to believe that new oil and gas fields in Russia are developed and put on production soon. It means that volumes of production and, probably, export of hydrocarbon materials from Russia will go down.
Though metals prices rose by 25-60% in the first six months of 2009 they will be below the pre-crisis level in the period under review. By the end of 2012, the growth in prices on ferrous and non-ferrous metal products is expected to be within the range of 10–15%. However, the situation in the Russian iron and steel industry is likely to improve as the global volume of demand (in physical terms) in metals will increase as compared to that which was observed at the end of 2008 and in 2009.
Stabilization in the financial sector of the world’s leading economies with interest rates gradually rising there will result in a new stage of global invertors’ activities in developing countries. However, it is believed that due to slow rate of economic recovery and weak trends in the leading international commodity markets a renewal of foreign capital inflow to Russia is only possible as late as 2011. In 2010, the influx of direct foreign investments will be compensated by Russian investors’ greater activities in purchasing of such assets abroad as have fallen in price during the crisis, while new private loans are spent primarily on repayment of the existing debts. Thus, the net capital outflow from the private sector is expected to be followed by capital inflow only late in 2011 and 2012.
As regards domestic conditions and trends in development of the Russian economy, the scenario in question points to the prospect of rather slow exit from the crisis. It is evident that pre-crises indices (that is, those which prevailed prior to 2008) as regards the volume of real GDP, industrial output, investments in capital assets, retail sales, households’ real income will not to be achieved by the end of 2012.
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