Even with a peak increment rate of labor productivity (7.2%) in place, a contraction in the number of the population employed in the economy should result in a smaller volume of GDP. The computations form a convincing evidence of the fact that not only Russia, but any most developed nations as well, will fail to secure a labor productivity growth rate that would enable them to compensate for an expected contraction of the number of the able-bodied-aged population. Even fairly ambitious designs to increase labor productivity rates, say at 7.2% annually, will result, in the period between today and 2020, in more than RUR10 bn.worth losses in GDP. It should be emphasized that this would occur specifically due to acute scarcity of labor resources (providing that nation fails to compensate for that with immigration). With no notable immigration inflow into Russia, there would be no funds to pay pensions to those who have aged forty now.
Mr. G. Gref, the Minister of Economic Development and Trade, vowed that under unchanged high oil prices Russia’s GDP should grow at a rate of 7.1%, which is the dear margin necessary for its doubling by 2010. The authors of the forecast believe that a downfall in oil prices should form the main cause for a slowdown of economic growth rates in 2005-06.
By L. Rybakovsky In the countries with similar parameters at the turn of the 21st century the average annual growth rates in labor productivity were not greater than 5% Table 2.
Dynamic of Russia’s GDP due to Rates of Change in Labor Productivity and the Number of Economically Active Population (EAP)Rates of changes of EAP under Under labor productivity growth rates over 5 years different variants of forecast 1.05 (1.276) 1.06 (1.338) 1.07 (1.403) GDP dynamics in 2006-(2010 to 2005 ratio.) 1st variant – 0.967 1.234 1.294 1.2nd variant– 0.972 1.240 1.301 1.GDP dynamics in 2011-2015.
(2015 to the 1st variant 2010 ratio) 1st variant – 0.935 1.193 1.251 1.2nd variant – 0.951 1.213 1.272 1.GDP dynamics in 2016-(2020 to the 1st variant 2015 ratio) 1st variant – 0.905 1.155 1.211 1.2nd variant – 0.921 1.175 1.232 1.Peculiarities of the Territorial Redistribution of the Russian Population.
According to Goskomstat, the population of the Far East and Siberia should diminish by 11% by 2025, while that of the central part – just by 3%. Much will depend on migration routes. What are prospects of the change of the population gravity vectors in Russia over next twenty years The gravity of the central part is unlikely to be overcome, at least, over next twenty-five years. To compensate for sheer natural losses of its able-bodied population, the central Russia will need some 6 mn. migrants. With no immigration inflow, the central Russia would pull the whole Russia’s migration potential. Should the situation remain unchanged by 2015, the group of regions that loose their population would be joined by the Southern, Volga and Ural federal okrugs,. while Siberia and the Far East are at risk to continue being major donors to the central okrug15.
The last decade evidenced that the geography of the domestic migration appears strongly dependent upon the migration inflow from the CIS countries: the smaller the inflow is, the more intense the domestic migrants’ desire to move to the Central okrug is. Thus, encouragement of the inflow of migrants from the CIS and from Far Abroad over next decade should constitute a critical step aimed at stabilization of the population in the eastern part of the country.
Migration Increment of Population across Regions of RSFSR until 2020 (as Thos.) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 RSFSR 111,0 120,1 132,0 158,6 169,3 300,6 344,6 332,Central Federal okrug 136,7 142,2 152,7 171,7 185,2 199,3 288,9 344,City of Moscow 54,9 57,6 62,3 65,2 68,5 72,6 95,4 113,Moscow oblast 62,1 63,9 65,1 68,9 71,0 73,8 90,3 100,North-Western FO 13,0 9,6 6,9 5,2 5,9 8,2 19,7 27,City of St. Petersburg 10,6 10,4 10,8 11,1 11,4 11,7 15,2 19,Southern FO 10,0 14,2 17,8 24,4 22,4 23,8 22,6 23,Volga FO -2,5 4,7 10,1 15,7 13,7 12,9 19,0 42,Ural FO Siberian FO Far-Eastern FO Source: “Predpolozhitelnaya chislennost naselenia Rossiyskoy Federatsii do 2025 g. (Statistichesky Byullyuten)”, M. 2005. The Federal Statistics Service The number of economically active population is based on forecasts, of which the first one implies the presence of the negative tendencies of parameters of the dynamic, while the other one is based upon unchanged birth and mortality rates According to Zh. Zayonchkovskaya’s assessments, between 2006 and 2026 migration losses of the Siberian okrug may reach 1 mn., and those of the Far-East okrug- ove half a million. Demographic YB, Table 4.
The Number of Population Across Regions of RSFSR until (as of the Beginning of the Year, as Thos.) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 RSFSR 142816.7 142171.5 141561.6 141000.7 140475.4 139985.7 138042.7 136568.Central Federal okrug 37365.2 37192.9 37037.6 36908.4 36799.2 36708.6 36754.5 36735.City of Moscow 10419.4 10434.3 10453.0 10475.0 10500.1 10528.0 10713.5 10942.Moscow oblast 6633.6 6640.8 6650.8 6666.2 6685.2 6707.9 6877.3 7107.North-Western FO 13629.9 13528.1 13426.7 13327.2 13231.9 13141.6 12763.0 12438.City of St. Petersburg 4577.1 4554.8 4533.8 4514.1 4495.6 4477.7 4401.1 4335.Southern FO Volga FO Ural FO 12244.7 12209.3 12176.6 12149.0 12123.2 12098.4 11989.7 11883.Siberian FO 19684.3 19572.5 19460.4 19347.5 19236.1 19128.1 18625.4 18152.Krasnoyarsk krai 2909.5 2892.5 2875.2 2857.2 2839.0 2820.8 2730.3 2643.Taymyr (Dolgan-Nenets) 39.3 39.1 39.0 38.7 38.5 38.2 36.8 35.Autonomous okrug Far-Eastern FO 6552.3 6508.6 6463.2 6415.3 6370.5 6326.0 6126.5 5976.Source: “Predpolozhitelnaya chislennost naselenia Rossiyskoy Federatsii do 2025 g. (Statistichesky Byullyuten)”, M. 2005. The Federal Statistics Service E. Dolgikh The Agenda of the Cabinet Meetings of 18 and 25 January The agenda of the Cabinet meetings of 18 and 25 January 2007 comprised the following issues, among others: report of the RF Minister of Economic Development and Trade on establishment of special tourist and recreational economic zones created on the basis of the federal Statute “On special economic zones in the Russian Federation”; draft amendments to the Budget Code of RF in the part of the budgeting; draft amendments to the Tax Code of RF on tax benefits in the part of formation of favorable tax conditions for financing innovation activities.
*** At its meeting on 18 January, the Cabinet discussed, among other issues, a report of the RF Minister of Economic Development and Trade on results of the tender-based selection of pretenders held in the late 2006. The pretenders were Subjects of RF that submitted applications for creation of special tourist zones.The Cabinet discussed and approved draft Resolutions of the RF Government on creation of special tourist and recreational economic zones in the Altay Republic, Republic of Buryatiya, Altay krai, Krasnodar krai, Stavropol krai, Irkutsk and Kaliningrad oblasts.
At its meeting on 25 January, the Cabinet discussed, among other issues, the bill “On introducing amendments to the Budget Code of the Russian Federation in the part of regulation of budgeting and recognizing certain legislative acts of the Russian Federation null and void”; the Cabinet also discussed a presentation by the RF Ministry of Finance.
The Cabinet emphasized the necessity for improving forecasting and budget planning and, particularly, ensuring publicity of adoption of expenditure obligations, increasing responsibility of participants in the budgeting, the need for the transition towards medium-term result-oriented budget planning, proceeding from outlined priorities. The Cabinet consequently ruled to submit the bill to the State Duma. The Cabinet then discussed the bill entitled “On introducing amendments to the Tax Code of RF on tax benefits in the part of formation of favorable tax conditions for financing innovation activities”. The bill provides for amending chapters “The value-added tax”, “The corporate profit tax” and “The simplified taxation system” of the Tax Code of RF. To encourage innovation activities, the cabinet suggests the following list of benefits:
• exemption from value-added of tax operations on realization of patents and licenses associated with objects of industrial property;
• exemption from the corporate profit tax of targeted receipts from funds of support to research and technical activities, while the RF Government is granted powers on identification of the respective list of such funds;
Report “On creation of special tourist-recreational economic zones”.
• increase from 0.5 up to 1.5% of the amount of gross proceeds exempted from the corporate profit tax, which enterprises have a right to transfer to the Russian fund for technological development and other sectoral and inter-sectoral funds for financing R&D and design works registered according to procedures stipulated by the federal Statute “On research and the state scientific and technical policy”;
• granting organizations that use equipment for research and technical and innovation activities the right to deduct from their tax bases costs of such equipment in an accelerated manner, by using a special coefficient to the basic depreciation rate (but not greater than 2);
• Taxpayers subject to the simplified taxation system from now on will enjoy the right to deduct from the taxed base costs of patenting, R&D and/or design works.
The RF Government approved the bill and ruled to submit it to the State Duma.
M. Goldin Review of Economic Legislation Between Late December 2006 and January The period between December 2006 and January 2007 saw introduction of the following amendments to the existing legislation: the possibility for private individuals to pay taxes in a simplified manner, that is, by means of declaration payment; the statute was passed on the procedures of formation and use of targeted capital of non-for-the-profit organizations; a new kind of emissive security, that is the Russian Depository Receipt, was introduced.
I. FEDERAL STATUTES of the Russian Federation “On introducing amendments to Art. 217 and 238 of Section Two of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation” of 29 December 2006, # 257-FZ The Statute becomes effective as of January 1, Since January 1, 2008, exempted from the personal income tax and uniform social tax will be sums of single material aid provided by employers to employees (parents, adoptive parents, tutors) upon the birth (adoption) of a child, but not more than RUR. 50,000 per child “ON SIMPLIFIED PROCEDURES OF FILING TAX RETURNS BY PRIVATE INDIVIDUALS” OF December 30, 2006, # 269-FZ The Statute becomes effective as of March 1, The federal Statute provides for the possibility for private individuals to pay taxes with respect to incomes received prior to January 1, 2006 and subject to taxation in the Russian Federation in a simplified manner, namely, by means of declaration payment, without submitting documents regarding kinds and sources of their incomes. Specifically, private individuals have been granted the right, between March 1, 2007 and January 1, 2008, to compute on their own and pay the declaration payment, proceeding from, first, the amount of incomes taxes (insurance premiums to the public extrabudgetary funds) on which have not been paid as per the RF law, and, secondly, the rate of 13%, regardless of kinds of incomes and applicable tax rates. The declaration payment is made via a bank in cash or by bank transfer on accounts of territorial branches of the RF Treasury.
Provisions of the Statute are not applicable to private individuals’ incomes, from which taxes (insurance premiums to the public extrabudgetary funds) have been paid in an order set by the RF law. The Statute may not be applied to individuals who have been found guilty in the tax crime as per Art. 98 of the Criminal Code of RF (private individual’s evasion of payment of taxes and (or) levies), providing the respective convictions as per the noted Article have not been cancelled.
“ON INTRODUCING AMENDMENTS TO ART. 45 AND 80 OF SECTION ONE OF THE TAX CODE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND ART. 57 OF THE BUDGET CODE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION” of December 30, 2006, # 265-FZ The Statute becomes effective as of March 1, The amendments in question are associated with the adoption of the aforementioned federal Statute of December 30, 2006 “On simplified procedures of filing tax returns by private individuals”. More specifically, Art. 45 of Section One of the Tax Code of RF was complemented with a provision that the obligation on payment of the tax is considered to be honored by the taxpayer, as of the day of effecting of the declaration payment, as per the federal Statute on simplified procedures of filing tax returns by private individuals.
The Statute also reads that particularities of honoring the obligation on submission of tax returns by means of payment of the declaration payment are set by the federal Statute “On simplified procedures of filing tax returns by private individuals”.
Amendments introduced to section one of Art. 57 of the Budget Code of RF read that non-tax revenues to the budgets of the Subjects of RF will be formed at the expense of the declaration payments, among others, at the rate of 100%.
“ON PROCEDURES OF FORMATION AND USE OF THE TARGETED CAPITAL OF NON-FORTHE-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS” The Statute comes into force as of the day of its official publication, except for particular provisions that will become effective otherwise.
The federal Statute regulates relations that arise under formation of endowment by non-for-the-profit organizations and their use of the respective proceeds. The Statute specifies particularities of management and activities of a non-for-the-profit organization, which becomes the owner of an endowment capital, under formation and use of proceeds from it.
The Statute introduces the concept of targeted capital, which is defined as a part of the non-commercial organization’s assets formed by endowment funds, which a benefactor contributed with in the form of cash and which the non-for-the-profit organization entrusts to a management company to receive proceeds, which are consequently to be used to finance its own, as well as other non-for-the-profit organizations’ operations, as per its (their) charter(s), following procedures of the federal Statute.