As of April 25, the volume of government bonds market made RUR 1,490.93 bn at face value and RUR 1 508.42 bn at the market value (as compared with RUR 1,487.93 bn and RUR 1,494.73 bn accordingly as of March 28). The duration of the government bonds market portfolio was 1 616.days, having decreased by 1.13 days as compared with the preceding month (as of March 28).
Stock market Stock market situation In April, in contrast to the previous month, trading volumes in the stock market showed some increase at the background of the sustained volatility of the global financial markets, strengthening of the RF national currency, reduction of the RF Central Bank refinancing rate since March 29 to 8.25 per cent, growth of the foreign currency reserves of Russia, changes in the international rating agency Standard & Poor’s forecast on the long–term credit ratings of 14 Russian banks from the “negative” to “stable”, the maintained level of unemployment in Russia in March 2010 (8.6 per cent), as well as Russian trade surplus, amounting to 34.4 billion dollars as of January–February 2010, the revised IMF estimates for GDP growth in Russia in 2010 from 3.6 per cent to 4 per cent, on the one hand, and growth of external and domestic Russian debts as of the I quarter of 2010 to 473.bn dollars and 1.87 trillion rubles, accordingly, net capital outflow from Russia in I quarter of 2010, 01.02.04.02.09.02.12.02.17.02.24.02.01.03.04.03.09.03.12.03.17.03.22.03.25.03.30.03.02.04.07.04.12.04.15.04.20.04.23.04.RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES 135 2 000,according to preliminary The total v olume of trading (roubles, billion) estimates, in the amount 120 1 800,MICEX Index of 12.9 billion dollars, the 105 1 600,deficit of the federal budget 90 1 400,on the basis of the I quarter 75 1 200,00 2010 in the amount of 307.bn rubles, or 3.2 per cent of 60 1 000,GDP, on the other hand.
45 800,All those factors 30 600,contributed to the volatile dynamics of the Russian 15 400,financial market within 0 200,the month. MICEX index has reached the minimum value for the period of April 22 – 1 443.36 points (against 1 356.27 points in the preceding month). The Fig. 3. Dynamics of MICEX Index and trading volume maximum value the MICEX index has reached on April 15, having reached 1 530.93 points (1,435.31 per cent points in the preceding month) (Fig. 3). In general, within the period from March 29 to April 25, the MICEX index has increased by 3.68 per cent, what makes about 52.08 points in absolute terms (within the year, from April 26, 2009 to April 25, 2010, the MICEX index has been upgraded times 1.6).
Over the same period, the turnover of trades in securities included in the MICEX index, made about RUR 1 102,89 bn at an average daily turnover of RUR 55.14 bn (against RUR 1 210,bn with an average daily turnover of RUR 52.64 bn in the preceding period). Therefore, the investors’ average daily activity in the stock market in April has grown as compared with the preceding period by 5 per cent. The indicators of maximum and minimum daily turnover in the market trades made, accordingly, RUR 66.13 bn (as of April 6), and RUR 28.63 bn (on April 5).
As of the month results (from March 29 through April 25), the “blue chips” securities have shown volatile trends. The leaders in growth were Gazprom, whose shares have increased by 6.per cent, GMK Nornickel (3.81 per cent), and Rosneft (2.98 per cent). Some less upgrading rates were noted in securities of Gazprom Neft (1.92 per cent), LUKOIL (1.72 per cent) and Tatneft (0.34 per cent). At the same time, other blue chips demonstrated a decline. Thus, Rostelecom securities have decreased 8,0% by 1.54, VTB Bank (6.6,0% per cent) and (10.12 per 4,0% cent). They were followed 2,0% by VTB Bank, Sberbank of Russia, and Mosenergo, 0,0% which decreased by 2.48 per -2,0% cent, 1.22 per cent and 1.-4,0% per cent accordingly. The -6,0% least decline by 0.46 per Change in price (%) -8,0% cent was demonstrated by -10,0% Surgutneftegas (Fig. 4).
-12,0% In April the MICEX turnover leaders were:
Gazprom (23.3 per cent of the total turnover), “Sberbank of Russia” (23.23 per cent), GMK “Nornickel” (8.52 per cent), LUKOIL (6.02 per Fig. 4. Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from March 29 to April cent), and Rosneft (5.22 per points roubles, billion 02.02.24.02.18.03.08.04.29.04.22.05.15.06.06.07.27.07.17.08.07.09.28.09.184.108.40.206.01.12.22.12.20.01.10.02.04.03.26.03.16.04.LUKOIL Tatneft Rosneft Bank VTB Russia Gazprom Mosenergo Rostelecom Sberbank of Gazprom neft GMK «Nornikel» Surgutneftegas FINANCIAL MARKETS cent). Herewith, the significantly reduced demand for the shares of Sberbank of Russia led to the return of Gazprom to the top leader for the first time since March 2009. The total volume of transactions with the shares of those five «blue chips» was about 66 per cent (all «blue chips» – 73 per cent) of the total trades in shares at the MICEX stock market during the period from March 29 to April 25, what indicates a decrease in investors’ interest in securities of the leading Russian companies (in March the share of operations with the “blue chips” accounted for 82 per cent)..
According to MICEX information, as of April 25, the top five leaders of the domestic stock market in terms of capitalization were: “Gazprom” – RUR 4 100,96 bn (RUR 3 815.70 bn a month earlier), “Rosneft” – RUR 2 548.33 bn (against RUR 2 427.19 bn), “Sberbank of Russia” – RUR 1 829.49 bn (against RUR 1 843.09 bn), “LUKOIL” – RUR 1 445.37 bn (against RUR 1 395.3 bn) and GMK “Nornickel” – RUR 1 047.03 bn (against RUR 975,63 bn).
Herewith, a greater rate of capitalization growth of GMK “Nornickel” in April led to forcing out from the fifth place of leaders Surgutneftegaz (RUR 1,036.34).
Futures and Options Market In April the total turnover in the MICEX futures market has declined by 10 per cent as compared with the preceding month. Thus, in the period from March 29 through April 25 the total turnover in the MICEX (futures) market made approximately RUR 92.63 bn (451.81 thousand of transactions, 1.53 mln of contracts) against approximately RUR 103.15 (466.23 thousand of transactions, 1.95 mln of contracts) in March.
The largest volume of trading in April, like a month before, was observed in contracts for futures and equity instruments, amounting to RUR 73.72 billion (450.25 thousand of transactions, 0.mln of contracts). Herewith, futures for the MICEX index in the short–term MICEX market section in terms of the volume of trade were followed by contracts for «Sberbank of Russia», Gazprom, Nornickel and LUKOIL shares. It should be noted, that the value of the MICEX index (the price of transactions) for June and September 2010 was in the range of 1,440–1,500 points.
The second place in terms of trading volume within the month was taken by foreign currency futures (RUR 16.27 bn). Herewith, contracts for the US dollar were in the first place in terms of trading in the MICEX futures market, followed by futures contracts for Euro and for Euro/ USD rate. It is worth noting that prices of futures contracts, concluded in April for RUR/USD futures in the MICEX market were within RUR/USD 29.2–29.4 for June, RUR/USD 29.5–29.for September, RUR/USD 29.8–30.4 for December. Trading volume in futures for commodity assets within the period has decreased by 27 per cent (from RUR 3.62 billion to RUR 2.64 billion).
There were no contracts for interest rate in April.
Similar trends were observed in the RTS FORTS futures market, where the investors’ activity in April has also somewhat decreased as compared with the previous month (by 9 per cent). Thus, in the period from March 29 through April 25 the total market turnover of futures and options in RTS was about RUR 1 839.08 billion (7.57 million of transactions, 37.62 million of contracts) as compared with about RUR 2 097.3 billion (9.11 million of transactions, 45.11 million of contracts) in March. The greatest demand among the market participants, as before, was demonstrated in futures: trading volume in them during the period under review amounted to RUR 2 032.billion (7.47 million of transactions and 35.47 million of contracts). In the first place in terms of futures trading volume were the futures contracts on the RTS index, which were followed with a significant margin by the futures contracts for dollar–ruble rate and for the shares of Sberbank of Russia and Gazprom. It should be noted that in the futures market of RTS FORTS prices of the recent transactions, concluded on futures contracts for the date of execution on June 15, were within RUR 29.3–29.7/ USD, on September 15, 2010 – RUR 29.4 – 29.9 USD, and on December 15, 2010 – RUR 29..7–30.1/ USD. The value of futures for the RTS index (based on the prices of recent contracts) for June 15, 2010 was estimated on average at 1 550–1 620 points, for September 15, 2010 – 1 550–1 640 points. Options enjoyed far less demand, the turnover made about RUR 72.73 bn (101.35 thousand transactions and 2.15 mln of contracts). The maximum daily turnover in the short–term RTS futures market in the period under review made RUR 138,79 billion (as of April 22), and minimum was RUR 49.22 bn. (on April 5).
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES External factors behind the Russian stock market dynamics In April the Russian financial market dynamics, as a month earlier, was largely dependant on the situation in the global financial markets. Among the basic factors of positive global market indicators, affecting the Russian market in April, one should mention:
- placement by Greece the seven–year bonds worth Euro 5 billion under 6 per cent per annum;
- increased global oil prices up to 86 dollars per barrel in the first half of April;
- opinion of the “Big Twenty" that the global recovery is occurring faster than expected;
- willingness of the EU and the IMF to provide a loan totaling to Euro 40 billion to Greece;
- growth of China foreign currency reserves as of the I quarter of 2010 results by 47.9 billion dollars, to 2.5 trillion dollars;
- information on the net profit of the U.S. bank Citigroup in I quarter of 2010 in the amount of 4.4 billion dollars (against 1.6 billion dollars in the I quarter of 2009); Bank of New York Mellon Corp. – 559 million dollars (against 322 million dollars); Morgan Stanley – 1.4 billion dollars (a loss of 578 million dollars); company Johnson&Johnson – 4.5 billion dollars (against 3.billion dollars) ; Coca–Cola Co. – 1.61 thousand dollars (by 20 per cent more than the indicator of the similar period of preceding year); Intel – 2.4 billion dollars (against 647 million dollars);
Volkswagen corporation – Euro 473 million ( against Euro 243 million);
- extended number of jobs by 162 thousand in non–agricultural sectors of the U.S. economy in March 2010;
- increase interest rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia from 4 per cent to 4.25 per cent, the Reserve Bank of India upgrading of the rate under REPO transactions from 3.5 per cent to 3.per cent;
- agreement on strategic partnership Renault, Nissan and Daimler automakers;
- growth of UK GDP, according to tentative estimates, in the I quarter 2010 by 0.2 per cent in comparison with the IV quarter of 2009.
Along with the above, the following events were restraining the global markets growth within the month:
- international rating agency Standard & Poor confirmation of the long–term credit rating of Great Britain at AAA with a ”negative” outlook;
- rating agency Standard & Poor's confirmation of the long–term and short–term credit rating of Iceland under obligations in foreign currency at the level BBB–/A–3., as well as downgrading of Iceland rating for obligations in national currency to the level BBB/A–3; forecast on ratings is "negative”;
- reduced rating of Fitch Ratings in regard to Greece long–term default issuer rating from BBB + to BBB–, outlook – "negative" due to deteriorating economic prospects of the country;
- reduced sovereign credit ratings by Moody's Investors Service agency of Greece from the level of A2 to A3 and a warning about the possibility of their further downgrading against the background of the problems with the country domestic debt;
- instituting legal proceedings by the USA Securities and Exchange Committee (SEC) against the investment bank Goldman Sachs due to the accusation of fraud with the use of derivative mortgage securities;
- financial losses of international airlines in connection with the closure of the airspace as a result of volcanic eruptions in Iceland and the cancellation of a large number of air flights;
- unemployment growth in the EU countries in February 2010 by 0.1 per cent to 10 per cent;
- balance of trade deficit in China in March 2010 in the amount of 7.24 billion US dollars (last time the deficit was recorded in 2004);
- sustained value of the GDP in the Euro Zone in the IV quarter of 2009 as in the previous quarter;
- plans of Japan Airlines to reduce 16, 500 jobs.
All those factors have generally resulted in the volatile dynamics of the global stock indices in April, as of the month results. Herewith, the markets of the developed countries were demonstrating both, a general increase in the indices by 1–6 per cent, as well as a decrease by 0.7–1 per cent, At the same time, in the developing markets there was observed an increase in the basic stock indices by 1–5 per cent, with the exception of the Chinese Shanghai Composite index, which has declined FINANCIAL MARKETS by 2.5 per cent. Herewith, there was observed an increase in the basic stock market indices as compared with early January 2010 results (See Table 1 and Fig. 5).