Variant 2 is considered to be the most plausible variant of the forecast taking into account favorable foreign economy situation. In 2010 the oil prices are expected to stabilize at the level of USD 65 per barrel and then to grow up to USD 70-71 per barrel in 2011-2012. The forecast GDP growth over three years will make 11.1%, which will allow exceeding the pre-crisis level in 2012.
Variant 2b – moderately optimistic – reflects the development of the Russian economy in the environment of maintaining high prices for oil – up to USD 69 per barrel in 2010, USD 74 per barrel in 2011 and up to USD 81 per barrel in 2012. According to these calculations in 2012 the GDP will exceed the pre-crisis level by 2.7%.
Table FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOREIGN TRADE DEVELOPMENT IN 2010-(AS USD BILLION) 2009 estimation 2010 2011 Export Variant 2 305.0 350.0 380.2 401.Variant 2b, moderately optimistic 305.0 363.3 396.7 441.Variant 1а, conservative 305.0 316.6 326.2 339.Import Variant 2 195.1 226.4 253.0 283.Variant 2b, moderately optimistic 195.1 231.7 262.3 302.Variant 1а, conservative 195.1 212.0 222.4 240.Source: main parameters of specified forecast for socio-economic development in 2010 and in the planning period of 2011 and 2012, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, December 30, 2009, p,. In 2010-2012 the volumes of export will increase mainly due to the expected growth of prices for oil and raw materials. As a result of the expansion of the external demand the physical volumes of foodstuffs, machinery, equipment and transport vehicles export are forecast to grow. However according to both the first and the second variants the total sum of export in 2012 will be below the pre-crisis maximum by 28% and 15%, correspondingly.
1 Russia’s export-import of the most important goods in 2009, www.customs.ru, site of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, 08.02.2 Specification of the main macroeconomic parameters of the forecast was made taking into the account the trends of the world economy development and foreign economic situation, as well as the results of Russian economy and foreign trade development in January-November WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS AND SERVICES IN 2009...
As a result of ruble exchange rate strengthening, and faster recovery of investments and consumption (in the second variant) the forecast for the import dynamics will be raised. However, according to all the variants its share in 2012 will not exceed pre-crisis maximum of USD 292 billion.
It is also expected that the change in population and enterprises’ preferences towards the domestic production as well as slower recovery of the investment demand1.
At the beginning of 2010 the country’s foreign trade started to return to pre-crisis figures. According to the estimation of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in the first quarter of the current year trade turnover made USD 136.6 billion or 142.5% versus the corresponding period of 2009. A considerable positive balance reaching USD 45.3 billion (USD 112.1 billion over the whole 2009) was provided by the increase of export volume by 1.6 times up to USD 91.3 billion, while the import over the same period went up by 17.7% up to USD 45.3 billion2. The growth of export is accounted for by the effect of low bade as well as by the increase of world prices for oil and a number of other raw materials. At the same time by the end of the year the growth of import rates may accelerate by two times, which will affect the reduction of positive balance.
Summarizing brief analysis of the Russian foreign trade in 2009 and prospects for its development, the following should be noted. At the end of the present decade the Russian economy faced longterm challenges reflecting both global trends and internal barriers for the development, which have become much more serious during the global crisis. The negative dynamics of the foreign trade with goods and services in 2009 once again demonstrates that Russia faces system problems which require serious analysis and elaboration of new strategic approaches to the development of the foreign economic sphere on the whole.
1 Main parameters of the specified forecast for socio-economic development in 2010 and in the planning period of 2011 and 2012, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, December 30, 2009, p. 2 Central Bank of the Russian Federation www.cb.ru,, 2 April RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES REVIEW OF ECONOMIC LEGISLATION I.Tolmacheva In April the following changes were made to the legislation: socially oriented non-commercial organizations were defined; the rules for making immediate compensation to the veterans in connection with the 65th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War were established; the coefficient correcting the severance tax rate towards oil in March 2010 was approved.
I. Federal Laws of the Russian Federation 1. “ON MAKING CHANGES TO SOME LEGISLATIVE ACTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION CONCERNING THE ISSUES OF SUPPORT FOT SOCIALLY ORIENTED NON-COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATIONS” from 05.04.2010 No 40-FZ.
Socially oriented non-commercial organizations will be entitled for the priority state support.
In concordance with the changes introduced in the Federal Law “On non-commercial organizations” and some other legislative acts an approximate list of kinds of activities for the non-commercial organizations fulfilling them to be recognized as socially-oriented. For instance, it is social support and protection of citizens, preparation of the population for overcoming of aftermaths of natural disasters, ecological, anthropogenic and other catastrophes, prevention of accidents; assistance to the victims of natural disasters, ecological, anthropogenic and other catastrophes, social, national, religious conflicts, to refugees and internally displaced persons; protection of environment and wildlife; protection of objects and territories of historic, cultural, religious and ecological significance; rendering of legal aid free of charge or under privileged conditions for citizens and non-commercial organization, activity on protection of human rights and freedoms; charity and activity aimed at promotion of charity and voluntary work; activity in the field of education, enlightenment, culture, science, arts, health care, illnesses prevention and health protection of citizens;
promotion of healthy way of life, improvement of moral and psychological state of citizens, physical education and sport and assistance to such activities, as well as assistance of spiritual development of a person belong to such kinds of activities.
Support to socially-oriented non-commercial organization can be rendered in the forms of financial, property, informational, consulting support, support in staff and volunteers training, granting privileges for taxes and fees, order placement for supplies of goods, execution of works, services rendering for state and municipal needs at socially-oriented non-commercial organizations. The privileges foe taxes and fees payment can be also granted to legal entities giving material support to socially-oriented non-commercial organizations.
II. Decrees of the Government of the Russian Federation 1. “ON ESTABLISHING THE REGULATIONS FOR MAKING IMMEDIATE COMPENSATION TO SOME CATEGORIES OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION CITIZENS IN CONNECTION WITH THE 65TH ANNIVERSARY OF VICTORY IN THE GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR OF 1941–1945” from 12.04.2010 No 221.
Flat payment to veterans in connection with the 65th anniversary of victory in the Great Patriotic War will be made in April 2010.
The regulations establishing the procedure for making immediate compensations were approved.
The veterans and disabled veterans of the Great Patriotic War (listed in subparagraphs 1-3 paragraph 1 article 2 Law “On veterans”), former underage prisoners of concentration camps and some other categories of veterans a flat payment of RUR 5000 was established; for veterans belonging to those listed in subparagraph 4 paragraph 1 article 2 of the Law mentioned (including persons that worked on home front, and those awarded with USSR orders and medals for selfless work during the Great Patriotic War) the flat payment of RUR 1000 is established. Payments are made by the territorial bodies of the RF Pension Funds or other bodies setting and paying corresponding penREVIEW OF ECONOMIC LEGISLATION sions (lifelong support) to veterans. Citizens that have a right to receive flat payment due to several reasons the payment is made so as to the rate to be maximal.
III. Orders, Letters, Instructions 1. Letter of the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation “ON DATA NECESSARY TO CALCULATE SEVERANCE TAX ON OIL OVER MARCH 2010” from 19.04.2010 No ShS-37-3/5@ Coefficient correcting the severance tax rate concerning oil over March 2010 was defined to be 6.9666. The value of coefficient in February 2010 was lower and made 6.6693. The increase of this coefficient is accounted for by the changes in the indices on which basis it is calculated.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES REVIEW OF RF GOVERNMENT MEETINGS IN APRIL M.Goldin In April at the meeting o the Presidium of the RF Government the following questions were considered: the bill “On ratification of the agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Cuba on avoiding of the double taxation and prevention of evasion form incomes and capital taxes”; the bill giving Rosfinnadzor and taxation bodies the right to access banking secret.
On April 12, at the meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation the bill “On ratification of the agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Cuba on avoiding of the double taxation and prevention of evasion form incomes and capital taxes” (further referred to as the Agreement) was discussed. The project was submitted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
The bill envisages the ratification of the Agreement signed in Havana on December 14, 2000.
In concordance with subparagraph a paragraph 1 article 15 of the Federal Law from July 15, 1995 No 101-FZ “On international agreements of the Russian Federation” the Agreement is subject to ratification since it contains regulations other than those envisaged by the Russian legislation. The Agreement is aimed at elimination of double taxation of taxpayers’ (legal entities and natural persons of countries participating in the Agreement) incomes and capital. The Agreement guarantees non-admission of tax discrimination, regulates the procedure for taxpayers’ appeals and applications consideration and disputes setting, as well as the issues of information exchange between the authorized bodies of negotiating countries, defines the methods to eliminate double taxation.
The Agreement is based on the typical Agreement on avoiding double taxation of incomes and property as well as typical models recommended by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations (UN).
The Agreement also applies to incomes and capital taxation of persons having the place of residence, host, management, registration in the Russian Federation or in the Republic of Cuba.
The Agreement envisages that in case an organization that is a resident of one of the countries participating in the Agreement receives the income (profit) from entrepreneurial activity in another country participating in the agreement through the permanent representative in it, such incomes (profit) is levied with tax in the country of its permanent representative. As to construction and installation works and supervising activity connected with it, it is established that the profit received from such activity will be levied with the tax if the duration of such works exceeds 12 months. As to services, including managing and consulting services, this activity will be levied with taxes if the duration of works exceeds 6 months.
Capital in the form of movable property which is a part of the permanent representative property, which the enterprise of one state owns in another state, or in the form of movable property belonging to the permanent base managed by the resident of one state in another state for the purposes of rendering independent private services can be levied with taxes in another state.
Capital in the form of sea vessel or airplane exploited in international transportation by the enterprise of one country or in the form of movable property connected with exploitation of such sea vessels or airplanes is to be levied with taxes only in this country.
The incomes from immovable property can be levied with taxes in the country in which this property in fact is located.
The profit received by the enterprise of contracting state from the exploitation of sea vessels or aircrafts in the international transportation is to be levied with taxes only in this state.
REVIEW OF RF GOVERNMENT MEETINGS IN APRIL The dividends paid by the company that is a resident of one country to the resident of another country can be levied with taxes in any of the states. If the recipient is a person that has a real right for dividends the collected tax should not exceed 15% (5% in some cases).
Royalties, evolving in one country and paid to the resident of another country, can be levied with taxes in any of the countries, however if the recipient is a person that has areal right for royalty should not exceed 5% of the total sum of royalty.
The Agreement established the classical principle of residence when taxing personal incomes.
As a rule, a natural person pays taxes from his income in the country, in which he stays for more than 183 days during the corresponding 12-month period. However, for crews of transport vehicles, actors, sportsmen, state employees, pensioners, students, trainees and teachers the exceptions from this rule are made.
The Agreement comes into effect on the date of the last notification of the completion of intrastate procedures by the contracting states necessary for it to enter into force. The statements of the Agreement will be applied starting with January 1st of the year following its entry into force. The Agreement is in effect up to the moment when one of the contracting states ceases its effect, sending written notifi cation through the diplomatic channels on its cancellation at least 6 months before the year end after five years from the date of the Agreement coming into effect elapse.
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