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For the volumes of the world trade to return to record-breaking level of 2008, in WTO estimations, two years will be needed, but the world economy recovery may cease due to possible activation of protectionism. According to the joint report of the WTO, OECD and UNCTAD despite the deepest recession the trade wars were still avoided. Protectionist measures adopted in G20 countries concerned 0.8% of the world import from October 2008 to October 2009, and only 0.4% from September 2009 to February 2010. All in all, in the G20 aggregated import this share went down from 1.3% to 0.7%.At the same time Global Trade Alert (GTA) organization which regards protectionism not only as tariff barriers, but also, for instance, as the toughening of the laws concerning migrants counted that there are 257 newly adopted protectionist measures, 184 of which were adopted by G20 countries that signed anti-crisis agreement according to which no new trade barriers were to be cre1 World Trade 2009, Prospects for 2010: Trade to expand by 9.5% in 2010 after a dismal 2009. WTO, Geneva, Press/598, 26 March 2010, 16 .

2 Thus, according to Sloan Foundation data, out of USD 150 of iPod cost only USD 4 are made in China, other 146 represent the cost of imported components. The Wall Street Journal, 25 March 2010.

3 Report on G20 Trade and Investment Measures (September 2009 to February 2010), WTO, OECD & UNCTAD, 8 March 2010, pp. 4,8.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES ated. It should be noted that not all these measures were obvious at once: in the 1st quarter the countries introduced not 77 but 111 measures by 44% more. Over the 4th quarter despite the starting recovery in the majority of economies GTA revealed 63 new protectionist measures. According to GTA data the protectionist measures concerned China most often during this crisis (measures being introduced against it) and the USA (more than 100), which is accounted for by their active export expansion1.

According to WTO data, as a result of 2009 in the field of goods export China (USD 1202 million, 9.6% of the world export) for the first time has hold the leading position in the rating of the largest exporters, leaving behind Germany (USD 1121 million, 9.0%) and the USA (USD 1052 million, 8.5%). In the list of the largest importers the leading position is still occupied by the USA (USD 1.604 million, 12.7% of the world import), the second place is held by China (USD 1.006 million, 8.0%), outstripping Germany (USD 931 million, 7.4%). For more details on the world rating of leading exporters and importers of goods and commercial services in 2009 refer to tables 1 and 2.

Table LEADING EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS IN WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS IN 1 China 1202 9.6 -16 1 USA 1604 12.7 -2 Germany 1121 9.0 -22 2 China 1006 8.0 -3 USA 1057 8.5 -18 3 Germany 931 7.4 -4 Japan 581 4.7 -26 4 France 551 4.4 -5 Netherlands 499 4.0 -22 5 Japan 551 4.4 -6 France 475 3.8 -21 6 Great Britain 480 3.8 -7 Italy 405 3.2 -25 7 Netherlands 446 3.5 -8 Belgium 370 3.0 -22 8 Italy 410 3.2 -Republic of Hon Kong.

9 364 2.9 -14 9 353 2.8 -Korea China - import for internal 91 0.7 -consumption10 Great Britain 351 2.8 -24 10 Belgium 351 2.8 -Hon Kong, 11 330 2.6 -11 11 Canada 330 2.6 -China - export for local 15 0.1 -production - re-export2 314 2.5 -Republic of 12 Canada 316 2.5 -31 12 323 2.6 -Korea Russian 13 304 2.4 -36 13 Spain 290 2.3 -Federation 14 Singapore 270 2.2 -20 14 Singapore 246 1.9 -- export for local - import for production 138 1.1 -19 internal 114 0.9 -consumption - re-export 132 1.1 -15 Mexico 230 1.8 -21 15 India 244 1.9 -16 Spain 218 1.7 -23 16 Mexico 242 1.9 -Russian 17 Chinese Taipei 204 1.6 -20 17 192 1.5 -Federation1 Global Trade Alert, Will Stabilization Limit Protectionism The 4th GTA Report, L., 15.02.2010, .11.

(%) (%) Place Place Volume Change Volume Change year (%) year (%) previous previous countries countries Exporting Exporting versus the versus the Proportion Proportion (USD billion) (USD billion) WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS AND SERVICES IN 2009...

Table 1, contd Chinese 18 Saudi Arabia1 189 1.5 -40 18 175 1.4 -Taipei 19 UAE1 175 1.4 -27 19 Australia 165 1.3 -20 Switzerland 173 1.4 -14 20 Switzerland 156 1.2 -21 Malaysia 157 1.3 -21 21 Poland 147 1.2 -22 India 155 1.2 -20 22 Austria 144 1.1 -23 Australia 154 1.2 -18 23 Turkey 141 1.1 -24 Brazil 153 1.2 -23 24 UAE1 140 1.1 -25 Thailand 152 1.2 -14 25 Thailand 134 1.1 -26 Austria 137 1.1 -24 26 Brazil 134 1.1 -27 Poland 134 1.1 -21 27 Malaysia 124 1.0 -28 Sweden 131 1.0 -29 28 Sweden 119 0.9 -Czech 29 Norway 121 1.0 -30 29 105 0.8 -Republic 30 Indonesia 120 1.0 -14 30 Saudi Arabia1 92 0.7 -Total for 30 Total for 10244 82.2 - 10323 81.6 countries4 countriesTotal world Total world 12461 100.0 -23 12647 100.0 -export4 import WTO Secretariat estimation Import for internal consumption includes import deduced by re-export Import at FOB price Including considerable re-export and import for the purpose of re-export Source: WTO Secretariat, Press release, PRESS/598, Geneva, March 26, 2009, p.10 (Appendix Table 3 Merchandise Trade: Leading Exporters and Importers 2009).

Table LEADING EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS IN WORLD TRADE WITH COMMERCIAL SERVICES* IN 1 USA 470 14,2 -9 1 USA 331 10,6 -2 Great Britain 240 7,2 -16 2 Germany 255 8,2 -3 Germany 215 6,5 -11 3 Great Britain 160 5,1 -4 France 140 4,2 -14 4 China 158 5,1 5 China 1 129 3,9 -12 5 Japan 146 4,7 -6 Japan 124 3,8 -15 6 France 124 4,0 -7 Spain 122 3,7 -14 7 Italy 114 3,6 -8 Italy 101 3,0 -15 8 Ireland 104 3,3 -9 Ireland 95 2,9 -7 9 Netherlands 87 2,8 -10 Netherlands 92 2,8 -11 10 Spain 87 2,8 -11 Hon Kong, China 86 2,6 -6 11 Canada 77 2,5 -12 India 86 2,6 - 12 India 74 2,4 Republic of 13 Belgium 75 2,3 -11 13 74 2,4 -Korea (%) (%) (%) (%) Place Place Volume Volume countries countries Exporting Exporting vious year vious year Proportion Proportion sus the presus the preChange verChange ver(USD billion) (USD billion) (%) (%) Place Place billion) billion) year (%) year (%) countries countries Exporting Exporting Proportion Proportion the previous the previous Volume (USD Volume (USD Change versus Change versus RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Table 2, contd 14 Singapore 74 2,2 -11 14 Singapore 74 2,4 -15 Switzerland 68 2,1 -11 15 Belgium 72 2,3 -Russian 16 Sweden 60 1,8 -16 16 60 1,9 -Federation 17 Luxembourg 60 1,8 -16 17 Denmark 51 1,6 -18 Canada 57 1,7 -12 18 Sweden 47 1,5 -Hon Kong, 19 Republic of Korea 56 1,7 -25 19 44 1,4 -China 20 Denmark 55 1,7 -25 20 Brazil 44 1,4 -21 Austria 53 1,6 -13 21 Saudi Arabia 43 1,4 Russian 22 42 1,3 -17 22 Australia 41 1,3 -Federation 23 Australia 41 1,3 -7 23 Thailand 38 1,2 -24 Norway 38 1,1 -17 24 Austria 38 1,2 -25 Greece 38 1,1 -25 25 Norway 37 1,2 -26 Turkey 33 1,0 -6 26 Luxembourg 36 1,2 -27 Chinese Taipei 31 0,9 -10 27 UAE2 36 1,1 28 Thailand 31 0,9 -9 28 Switzerland 34 1,1 -29 Poland 29 0,9 -19 29 Chinese Taipei 29 0,9 -30 Malaysia 28 0,8 -8 30 Malaysia 27 0,8 -Total for 30 Total for 2765 83,5 - 2540 81,6 countries countries Total world Total world 3310 100,0 -13 3115 100,0 -export import * Foreign trade with commercial services is defined as the following: one country executes paid works (services) for another, which are not directly connected with the production of tangible property. So-called state services rendered within the borders of the country are referred to as non-commercial services.

Preliminary estimations Estimations of WTO Secretariat Note. By the beginning of March 2010 there were preliminary annual data for 50 countries (their proportion in the foreign trade with non-commercial services makes about two thirds). The majority of other estimations by countries were received on the basis of the data for first three quarters of 2009.

Source: WTO Secretariat, Press release, PRESS/598, Geneva, March 26, 2009, p.12 (Appendix Table 5 Leading Exporters and Importers in world trade in commercial services).

According to WTO data in the elapsed year the biggest rates of export and import operations drop among the leading trading countries were observed for Russia, which was reflected in its positions in the rating of leading exporters and importers of goods and commercial services. Out of countries, which account for more than 80% of the world trade, Russias indices fell to the deepest extent: import in value terms has reduced by 34% (the second place is occupied by Poland and Turkey with 30%), export by 36% (only Saudi Arabia with 40% has highest figures).

As a result (according to the preliminary data) in 2009 Russia lost 4 positions and took the 13th place in the rating of export value volumes with USD 304 billion. At the same time the annual growth nominal rates have dropped by 36%. The proportion of Russia in the world export made 2.4% (2.9% in 2008). As to the import value (USD 192 billion, drop of 34%) the Russian Federation sank to the 17th place and its share in the aggregated import has reduced to 1.5% (16th place and 1.8%, correspondingly, in 2008). Not taking into account intraregional trade between the EU countries Russia took the 8h position in the rating of goods export and 11th position in the goods import rating (the 5th and the 0th places, correspondingly, in 2008). In the rating of countries exporting commercial goods in 2009 (USD 42 billion, drop of 17%) the Russian Federation remained on the (%) (%) Place Place billion) billion) year (%) year (%) countries countries Exporting Exporting Proportion Proportion the previous the previous Volume (USD Volume (USD Change versus Change versus WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS AND SERVICES IN 2009...

22nd place and its share remained the same 1.3%. In the sphere of commercial services import (USD 60 billion, reduction of 19%) Russia maintained the 16th place in the world, its proportion reducing to 1.9% as compared with 2.2% in 2008. Table DYNAMICS OF RUSSIAS POSITIONS IN WTO RATING AND ITS SHARE IN WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS AND COMMERCIAL SERVICES IN 2000-2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 Goods export 17/1.7 13/2.4 13/2.5 12/2.5 9/2.9 13/2.Goods import 29/0.7 19/1.2 18/1.3 16/1.6 16/1.8 17/1.Services export 31/0.7 26/1.1 25/1.1 25/1.2 22/1.3 22/1.Services import 22/1.2 17/1.6 18/1.7 16/1.9 16/2.2 16/1.* The first figure refers to the place in the rating, the second to the share as percentage Source: calculated by the author on the basis of WTO statistics over the corresponding years As it can be seen from the presented WTO data (table 3) the most obvious negative changes in 2009 took place in the field of the Russian goods export. It is typical that the comparable dynamics was observed in the world rating of the countries by the GDP volume, which the IMF calculates in nominal terms. Whereas in 2008 the Russian Federation took the 89th place (GDP volume of USD 1.677 billion) in the world, in 2009 according to IMF estimation it sank to the 12th position (USD 1.229 billion) and the proportion of the country in the global GDP reduced from 2.7% to 2.1%, correspondingly2. The indicated direct correlation once again demonstrates the dependence of the economic growth in Russia from export volumes and primarily the export of energy commodities.

Table MAIN INDICES OF FOREIGN TRADE IN RUSSIA IN 2009, USD billion As percentage to According to the data of turnover export import balance turnover export import Federal Customs 469.0 301.6 167.4 134.2 -36.2 -35.5 -37.Service of the RF Central Bank of the RF and the Federal State 495.9 304.0 191.9 112.1 -35.1 -35.5 -34.Statistics Service* Ministry of Economic 496.0 303.3 192.7 110.6 -35.0 -35.7 -34.Development of the RF* * according to the balance-of-payments methodology Source: composed by the author on the basis of the corresponding data According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in 2009 Russias foreign trade turnover, calculated on the basis of balance-of-payments methodology, made USD 495.9 billion, which is 35.5% below the figure of 2008 (table 4). The positive foreign trade balance reduced by 35.1% and reached USD 112.1 billion. It should eb noted that export decreased by 36.2% versus the corresponding period of 2008 and made USD 304.0 billion, and import by 37.3%, making USD 191.9 billion3. Export and import value volumes in Russia in the previous year are practically equal to the corresponding figures of 2006.

According to the data of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation the goods turnover with non-CIS countries, which account for more than 85% of Russias foreign trade, reduced by 36.2% in 2009 to USD 400.5 billion, that with the EU countries (their proportion being 50.3%) by 1 World Trade 2009, Prospects for 2010: Trade to expand by 9,5% in 2010 after a dismal 2009. WTO, Geneva, Press/598, 26 March 2010, . 912.

2 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010: Nominal GDP list of countries.

Data for the year 2009.

3 Foreign Trade of the Russian Federation with goods in 2009 (according to the balance-of-payments methodology).

Bank of Russia site www.cb.ru, 9April RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES 38.3% down to USD 236.1 billion. Foreign trade turnover with CIS countries reduced by 35.5% and reached USD 68.5 billion.As a result o recalculation of foreign trade indices by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2009 goods export exceeded the data of the Federal Customs Service by 0.8% (0.9% in 2008), which is quite an acceptable norm. However, for the goods import the discrepancy makes 14.6% (8.5% in 2008), which corresponds to the level of 2005 and testifies the trend for grey import expansion (shuttle trade, smuggling etc.).

Indices (conditions) of the foreign trade of the Russian Federation in 2009 as compared with the previous year were characterized by diversified trends. Whereas for the export average prices index made 66.5%, physical volumes index 97.0%, for import such indices are equal to 99.1% and 63.3%, correspondingly.

The specified forecast of the Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation prepared at the end of 2009 envisaged three variants of socio-economic development of the country up to 2012. The oil prices serve as the basis of the scenarios mentioned. Parameters of forecast variants for export and import are presented in table 52.

Variant 1 conservative envisages maintenance of low dynamics of oil prices in 2010-2012 at the level of USD 5860 per barrel in concordance with parameters built into the budget reference points. In 2010-2012 the GDP is forecast to grow by 5.3%, which will not enable full compensation for the recession of 2009.

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