On April 22, «Sberbank of Russia» has disclosed the financial results the 1-st quarter of 2009 under RAS: assets increased by 0.4 per cent to RUR 6,750 billion; net profit amounted to RUR 0.3 billion (RUR 36.1 billion as of the 1-st quarter of 2008).
On April 24, «Sberbank of Russia» has provided to OAO «Gazprom» credit in the amount of USD 3 billion for the term of 5 years for the purpose of financing the acquisition of 20 per cent share in OAO «Gazprom Neft».
ОАО «Surgutneftegas» On April 9, OAO «Surgutneftegas» has completed the transaction to acquire 21.2 per cent share in Hungarian company Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari Nyilvanosan Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag («MOL») from OMV Group in the framework of the agreement, signed between the companies on March 30, ОАО «Tatneft» On March 26, the Board of Directors of OAO «Tatneft», summarized the financial and economic activity results for 2008: profit before tax amounted to RUR 50 billion.
Corporate bonds market In April, after a short reduction in the first quarter, the volume of the domestic corporate bond market in Russia (as per nominal value of securities in circulation) has grown after and made RUR 1,692.0 billion, which is by 1.7 per cent more than the similar indicator of preceding month. Within the period from March 24 through April 23 there were concluded by 29.4 thousand of transactions with corporate bonds in MICEX, totaling to RUR 29.3 billion. (as compared with 29.4 thousand transactions for the total amount of RUR 34.3 bln from February 24 through March 23 of the current year)1, what is the confirmation of the investors’ activity growth in the security market.For the third month in succession the index of corporate bonds IFX-Cbonds was growing again in the Russian market is growing, in the period from March 25 through April 23 the increase has made nearly by 6 points (or 2.9 per cent), having reached the maximum level since September of the last year.Here1 As per «Finmarket” information agency По RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES 28 with, the effective bonds yield has significantly de20 creased (from 17.22 per 210 cent to 16.57 per cent), 16 Effective yield which is the minimum Index IFX-Cbonds value within the last six months. (Fig. 6). The duration of corporate bonds market portfolio as of April 0 23 has reduced again and made was 41 days, what is 23 days less as compared with the late March of the Fig. 6. Russian corporate securities index and average weighted yield current year (See Fig.6).
dynamicsIn1 April, the total number and amount of the registered corporate bonds issues has significantly increased. In the period from March to April 23, there were recorded 12 issues of corporate bonds, totaling to RUR 78.98 billion, (as compared with that, from February 25 to March 24, seven issues totaling to RUR 21.billion were recorded). The bulk of the registered corporate bond issues was made by the two series of bonds, issued by OOO “VympelComInvest” for the total amount of RUR 30 billion and four series of long-term, secured by mortgage of OAO “Housing Mortgage Credits Agency” for the amount of RUR 28 billion.
In April the number and volume of corporate bond issues has grown again.In the period from March 25 through April 23 there were placed 11 issues for the amount of RUR 46.bln. (within the period from Fenbuary 25 to March 24 only 7 bonds placement was made for the amount of RUR 1 billion) (See Fig.7). In the period under review, the large bond issues were placed by OAO «Russian Railways» (one series of bonds for the total amount of RUR 15 billion) and OAO “Gazprom Neft” (one series of bonds for the amount of RUR 10 billion), as well as one emitter, 100 OAO “System-Galls” has Total emission Объем выпусков placed two inaugural Amount of placed issues Количество выпусков bond issues. It is worth mentioning, that OAO “Russian Railways” has placed already three bonds issues in the last two 40 months for the amount of RUR 45 bln2.
In April a growth trend was noted in the number of issues, recognized 0 invalid due to nonplacement of any security.
In the period from March 25 through April 23 the Fig. 7.Corporate securities primary placement dynamicsFederal Statistical Service 1 As per Cbonds company data.
2 As per Cbonds information Effective yield, % Index IFX-Cbonds 24.09.22.11.22.01.24.03.22.05.22.07.24.09.24.11.26.01.24.03.amount of placed bond issues total volume of placed bond issues, billion rubles окт.окт.авг.ноя.дек.янв.апр.сен.ноя.дек.янв.апр.фев.мар.май.фев.мар.octnovdecjanfebmaraprmayjunjulaugsepoctnovdecjanfebmaraprиюн.июл.FINANCIAL MARKETS for Financial Markets of Russia has recognized as invalid six issues of corporate bonds, offered for public placement (versus four placements within February 25 – March 24).
Within March 25 through April 23, only eleven emitters out of thirteen have redeemed the bonded loans totaling to RUR 10.3 billion, including OAO “AVTOVAZ” redemption of two series of the stock market bonds in the amount of RUR 2 billion. Two more emitters have announced a technical default on repayment of their bonds, totaling to RUR 3.0 billion. In May 2009 thirteen issues of corporate bonds redemption for the amount of RUR 15.2 bln is expected.
In April, like in preceding months, a large amount of defaults and delayed performance of obligations (technical default) was recorded, though there was a trend to their number decrease.From March 25 through April 23 the default on offer (bonds redemption) was announced by two emitters (within February 24 to March 24 there were three emitters) and five emitters have failed to repay the coupon yield (there were eight of those in the preceding period). There were no real defaults in redemption of the bonds in the period under review.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES REAL ECONOMY SECTOR: TRENDS AND FACTORS O.Izryadnova In the 1st quarter 2009 the GDP was 90.5% of the level of the corresponding period of the previous year and the recession turned out to be deeper than it was expected according to the estimations by the Ministry for Economic Development published earlier. In the 1st quarter the reduction in the volumes of the investments in fixed assets made 15.0%, of the industrial production – 14.7% and retail trade turnover – 1.1%. The Ministry for Economic Development corrected the forecast indices for 2009: GDP will decrease by 6.0% as compared with 2008.
According to the preliminary estimations of the Ministry for Economic Development the GDP in the 1st quarter 2009 will decrease by 9.5%. At the beginning of 2009 the macroeconomic situation was formed under the influence of the simultaneous contraction of the external and the internal market accounted for by the accumulated effect of the factors of low business activity of the domestic business and of the contraction of the monetary incomes of the population. Over January-March 2009 contraction of the investments in fixed assets made 15.0%, of the retail trade turnover – 1.1%, of the real incomes of the population – 2.3%. The unfavorable trends of the external economic activity formed in the 4th quarter 2008 continued to exert a negative influence on the situation in the economy in the 1st quarter of 2009.
Table PRODUCTION INDICES BY KINDS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN 1ST QUARTER OF 2007-2009, AS PERCENTAGE TO THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR 2007 2008 Industry 107.2 106.2 85.Minerals extraction 104.0 100.7 96.fossil fuels extraction 103.8 102.7 100.minerals extraction, excluding fossil fuels 107.9 92.2 96.Processing industries 114.5 108.7 79. foodstuffs production, including beverages and tobacco 113.7 106.4 96.textile and sewing industry 110.8 102.6 78.leather, leather goods and footwear production 118.7 106.6 83.timber processing and wooden goods production 111.0 115.6 70.pulp-and-paper production, publishing and printing 110.8 107.8 82.coke and oil products production 106.0 105.0 96.chemistry production 110.6 103.7 77.rubber and plastic goods production 124.1 130.4 82.other non-metal mineral goods production 125.8 108.6 67.metallurgy production and production of finished metal goods 108.2 108.6 72.machinery and equipment production 126.0 116.4 74.electric, electronic and optical equipment production 123.7 93.3 56.transport vehicles and equipment production 116.4 114.4 64.other production 112.9 118.6 79.Electricity, gas and water production and distribution 93.3 105.6 94.Source: Federal State Statistics Service REAL ECONOMY SECTOR: TRENDS AND FACTORS Economic dynamic this year was defined by the decrease of the rates in practically all kinds of economic activities. Over January-March the recession in the production made 14.3%, being 3.8% in minerals extraction and 20.8% in the processing industries. The absolute decrease in production output volumes defined the contraction of the demand for the services of the natural monopolies. The volume of freight turnover reduced by 18.6%, the railway transport turnover decreasing by 25.8%, the electricity, gas and water production and distribution – by 5.1%, electricity production decreasing by 5.7%, natural gas production – by 14.7%.
As a result of the change in the situation at the external markets and the contraction of the internal demand at a number of enterprises of the timber complex production and shipping of goods was interrupted. As a result in January-March 2009 the volume of the timber processing and production of wooden goods made 70.8% of the index of the previous year, and the volume pulp-and-paper production, publishing and printing made 82.0%.
Production of chemistry industry reduced by 22.4% as compared with January-March 2008, the recession in the production of fertilizers aggravating to 26.7%. The reduction in the production of the pharmaceutical industry by 16.9% versus the first quarter of 2008 is especially worrying.
In the situation when the share of the Russian medications at the market makes 20-25% according to various estimation, and the production of a number of medication highly depends on the supplies of substances by foreign producers, reduction of medications import by 2.8% in January-February of the current year, and of the pharmaceutical production by 11.1% versus the corresponding periods of 2008, defined negative background for the domestic pharmaceutical industry.
Index of the production of the construction materials over two months of the current year made 66.2% versus January-February 2008, cement production – 61.5%, concrete constructions – 66.4% under the influence of the contraction of the workload in construction by 18.8%..
The decrease in the volumes of the metallurgy production by 28.4% in January-March 2009 as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year and in the volumes of metal goods production – by 26.4% is accounted for by the contraction of the demand of the internal market and the contraction of the export supplies. The demand of the internal market for metals and metal goods is not provided by the development rates of such metalconsuming productions as machine-building, defense, construction, fuel and energy complexes. Index of machinery and equipment production made 74.3%, of transport vehicles and equipment production – 64.5%, of electric, electronic and optic equipment production – 56.6%. Besides the situation in metallurgy was aggravated by the contraction of the demand from the production of construction materials. Under the influence of the drop in the workload in construction by 19.7% versus the 1st quarter 2008 the output of the reinforced concrete construction decreased by 42.8%.
A considerable decrease in the promising projects in constructions, curtailment of programs on modernization and technical re-equipment and contraction of the consumer demand continue to have a negative effect on the dynamics of the machine-building complex.
In the production of machinery and equipment, the production of mechanical equipment growing by 17.3% versus the 1st quarter of 2008 (due to the output of the turbines for power industry), the output of machine tools and equipment for metallurgy and extractive industries reduced by nearly 2/3, of machinery and equipment for agriculture and forestry – by 29.9%, production of household appliances – by 23.7%.
The recession in the production of transport vehicles and equipment is defined by an unexampled contraction in the output of the motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES – 37.5% of the level of the 1st quarter of 2008. In the 1st quarter of 2009 the output of trucks made 24.6% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year and of passenger cars – 37.1%. Such a large-scale contraction of production concerned all the market of material and technical resources through the system of interbranch connections and had an exceedingly negative effect on the nature of employment in the processing industries on the whole.
Contraction of the consumer demand, shortage of liquid funds necessary for the purchase of the raw materials, high cost of credit resources as the main factors for the sharp decrease of the productions of the consumer complex have been in effect since the second half of 2008. In January-March 2009 the index of textile and sewing production made 78.8%, leather, leather goods and footwear production – 83.0%, foodstuffs production – 96.7% of the corresponding period of the previous year. Taking into account the fact that during past three years the proportion of the domestically produced goods in the structure of the resources of the retail trade turnover has been decreasing systematically, and made 55% in 2008, the reduction of the foodstuffs and non-food goods production against the background of the strengthening of the trend for the reduction of import of foodstuffs and raw materials for their production – by 7.1%, of sewing goods and footwear – by 14.8% in March 2009 as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year will have a negative influence on the functioning of the retail market.
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