Second, the norms of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation regulating the procedure for making changes in the federal law on the federal budget were changed. In order to enhance the possibilities to subsidize the measures on balancing the local budgets from the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation, it is established that up to January 1, 2012 the limitation (of no more than 10% of interbudgetary transfers) established by article 139.1 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation may be exceeded by the amount of subsidies from the budget of the subject of the Russian Federation to provide the balance of the local budgets;
Third, in case in the current financial year the total incomes of the federal budget (excluding oil and gas earnings and the incomes from the placement of the means of the Reserve Fund and the Funds for National Welfare) decrease by more than 15% as compared with the volumes of mentioned incomes envisaged by the federal law on the federal budget for the current financial year and the planning period, the statements of the federal law mentioned concerning the planning period may be regarded as invalid. It should be noted that upon the submission of the project of the federal law on the federal budget for the current financial year that envisages recognition of the statements of the federal law on the federal budget concerning the planning period as invalid, no corrected forecast for social and economic development of the Russian Federation in the planning period is provided.
According to the decree of the Government of the Russian Federation from 31.03.No 282 “On making changes to the regulations for the preparation and fulfillment of the REVIEW OF BUDGETARY LEGISLATION budget investments in the objects of capital construction of the state property of the Russian Federation not included in long-term federal target programs” the amount of the calculated sum of the objects of capital construction of the federal institutions, which the decision on the preparation and the fulfillment of the budget investments in the form of the act of the superintendant concerns, was increased from RUR 600 million to RUR 1.5 billion.
According to the Decree of the Government of the Russian federation from 15.04.No 322 “On measures to fulfill the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation from June 28, 2007 No 825 “On estimating the efficiency of the operation of the executive bodies of the Russian Federation” the list of the additional indices to estimate the efficiency of the operation of the executive bodies of the Russian Federation was defined.
The list mentioned was developed as a supplement to the List of the indices to estimate the efficiency of the operation of the executive bodies of subjects of the Russian Federation adopted by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation from 28.06.2007 No 825.
The indices adopted characterize, for instance, the level of social and economic development of the subject of the Russian Federation, the situation in the field of the health care, education, provision of the citizens with dwellings, organization of the state and municipal management.
According to the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation from 15.04.No 322 the methods for the estimation of the efficiency of the operation of the executive bodies of subjects of the Russian Federation in the accounting period was also developed in order to prepare annual report of the Government of the Russian Federation to the President of the Russian Federation.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES RESULTS OF WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS AND SERVICES IN 2008 AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA’S FOREIGN TRADE A.Pakhomov At the end of March of the current year the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization (WTO) published the analytical review on the results of the world trade in 2008 and the prospects for the development of the international trade in 2009. The review includes preliminary statistical data for world trade with goods and services from the point of view of regions and countries.
According to the estimations made by the WTO analysts the increase in the world trade made only 2.0% in real terms in 2008 (the lowest figure for the current decade) as compared with 5.5% in 2007 and 8.5% in 2006. According to the forecasts of the World Trade Organization in 2008 the growth rates of the international trade were expected to decrease down to the lowest level of six preceding years but no less than 4.5%. As a result, average annual growth rates of the world trade made 5.7% in 1998-2008.WTO calculated the real growth of trade taking into account inflation in different countries and the dynamics of the currencies’ exchange rates on the basis of the forecasts made by the statistics services of the UN and IMF. In 2008, nominally, the world export of goods increased by 15% and reached USD 15.8 trillion, and the world export of services- by 11% and made USD 3.7 trillion. In 2007 the corresponding growth rates of goods export were 15%, and of services export – 18%.In 2008 the place of the biggest exporter of goods was retained by Germany (USD 1.trillion, the share in the global export being 9.1%), which is followed by China (USD 1.trillion, 8.9%) and the USA (USD 1.31 trillion, 8.1%). The same countries hold the leading positions among the biggest importers: the USA (USD 2.17 trillion, the share being 13.2%), Germany (USD 1.21 trillion, 7.3%) and China (USD 1.13 trillion, 6.9%). The more detailed information on the world rating of the leading exporters and importers of goods and commercial services are presented in the appended tables 3 and 4.
The recession of the world trade started in the second half of 2008 in connection with the sharp reduction in demand for goods and services. The slow-down of GDP growth resulted in the decrease of export and import growth rates in all regions of the world. It is forecast that the volume of the international trade will reduce by 9% in 2009. This will be the most dramatic decrease for the post-was period, which is accounted for by the global recession (according to the estimation by the WTO the world production may reduce by 2%) and thе strengthening protectionist trends (for instance, the majority of G20 countries introduced different measures to limit import at the end of 2008 – the beginning of 2009).The current forecast is the most pessimistic for 62 preceding years, which is the period of GATT/WTO existence. It is envisaged that the trading crisis will concern primarily the developed countries in which producers and consumers traditionally attract considerable 1 «World trade 2008, Prospects for 2009: WTO sees 9% global trade in 2009 as recession strikes», WTO Secretariat Geneva, WTO\ PRESS\554, 24 March 2009, рp.1,7.
2 «World Trade 2007, Prospects for 2008: developing, transition economies cushion trade slowdown», WTO/PRESS/520/Rev.1, 17 April 2008, Geneva, рр. 2,3 The Wall Street Journal, 24 March 2009.
RESULTS OF WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS AND SERVICES...
crediting funds. That is why in this group of countries the volume of trade can reduce by 10% in real terms, whereas in the developing countries the reduction will only be 2-3%.
The WTO also warns that it is impossible to define real scale of the global recession: the drop of the world trade may be deeper, for instance, it is estimated to be 13% in the April forecast by the OECD.
According to the WTO rating (preliminary data), in 2008 the Russian Federation held the 9th place in the world by the export value volumes, which was USD 472 billion. It should be noted that the annual nominal growth rates went up to 33%. The share of Russia in the global export made 2.9% (in 2007, correspondingly, the 12th place and 2.5%). As to import value volume (USD 292 billion, growth rates of 31%) Russia remained in the 16th place, with the share in the total import reaching 1.8% (in 2007, correspondingly, 16th place and 1.6%).
Not taking into account the intraregional trade between 27 countries of the EU and some members of the group, Russia holds the 5th place as to goods export and the 10th place as to goods import in the world (7th and 10th places, correspondingly, in 2007). On the whole, the share of Russia in the world trade with goods and services in the previous year went up to 2.1% versus 1.9% in 2007.
In the rating of the countries exporting commercial services1 in 2008 (USD 50 billion, growth rates of 29%) the Russian Federation held the 22nd place, its share being 1.3% (in 2006, correspondingly, the 25th place and 1.2%). As to the import of commercial services (USD 75 billion, growth rates of 29%), Russia retained the 15th place in the world, its share being 2.2% as compared with 1.9% in 2007.On the whole, the share of services in the aggregated Russian export made 9.6% in 2008, which is two times less than the average level in the world (19.3%).In the developed countries the share of services export makes on average 20-25%, which testifies the comparatively low realization of export potential of the sphere of services in Russia. Besides, the balance of trade with services of the Russian Federation has a chronic deficit since the beginning of the pervious decade.
Table DYNAMICS OF RUSSIA’S POSITION IN WTO RATING AND ITS SHARE IN WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS AND SERVICES IN 2000-2000 2005 2006 2007 Export of goods 17 -1.7 13-2.4 13-2.5 12-2.5 9-2.Import of goods 29-0.7 19-1.2 18-1.3 16-1.6 16-1.Export of services 31- 0.7 26-1.1 25-1.1 25-1.2 22-1.Import of services 22-1.2 17-1.6 18-1.7 16-1.9 16-2.* the first number is the place in the rating, the second – the share as percentage Source: calculated by the author on the basis of the WTO statistics over the corresponding years Despite the steady increasing dynamics of the indices (see table 1), reflecting the quantitative growth of the foreign trade with goods and services, Russia faces the problems that require serious analysis and elaboration of new strategic approaches to the development of the foreign economic sphere. At the end of the current decade the Russian 1 The foreign trade with commercial services is defined as the fulfillment of paid works (services) that are not directly connected with the creation of material goods. So-called government services that are rendered (given) within the borders of the country constitute the major part of non-commercial services.
2 «World trade 2008, Prospects for 2009: WTO sees 9% global trade in 2009 as recession strikes», WTO Secretariat Geneva, WTO\ PRESS\554, 24 March 2009, рp. 19-21.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES economy is confronted with long-term system challenges reflecting both the global trends and the internal barriers for the development that became considerably more acute in the period of the global crisis.
Table MAIN INDICES OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN TRADE IN indices 2008, as USD billion as percentage to Data turnover export import balance turnover export import Federal Customs Service 735.0 468.1 266.9 201.2 133.2 133.0 133.of the Russian Federation Central Bank of the Russian Federation and 763.7 471.8 292.0 179.8 132.2 133.1 130.Federal State Statistics Service Ministry of Economy Development of the 762.3 470.8 291.5 179.3 131.9 132.8 130.Russian Federation* * On the basis of balance-of-payments methodology Source: composed by the author on the basis of the corresponding data According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation the foreign trade turnover of Russia in 2008 made USD 763.7 billion, which is by 32.2% more than the figure of 2007. The positive foreign trade balance reached USD 179.8 billion. It should be noted that in 2008 export went up by 33.1% as compared with the figures over the corresponding period of 2007 and made USD 471.8 billion, and import – by 30.6% (USD 292 billion).
The turnover with the trading partners from non-CIS countries, whose share makes up more than 85% of the foreign trade, increased by 34% in 2008, making USD 628.5 billion, of which the EU countries account for USD 382.1 billion (52%). The foreign trade turnover with CIS countries (15%) went up by 29% and made USD 106.5 billion. The data given in estimations by the Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation made in accordance with the balance-of-payment methodology are nearly the same.
It should be noted that the real growth rates of the foreign trade turnover, especially export, tend to slow down. As a result of correction of the indices of foreign trade by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2008 the real export of goods exceeded the data of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation by 1% (in 2007 – 1%), and real import – by 8.5% (in 2007 – 12%). Thus, if the WTO rating used customs statistics, Russia would again be among the leading trading countries in the world with regard to both export and import.
According to the corrected forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development it is expected that in 2009 export will drop by 45% and make USD 259.7 billion, and import will decrease by 20% - to USD 233.0 billion. Correspondingly, the foreign trade balance will remain positive, but will reduce by nearly 8% - to USD 26.7 billion.1 Export growth rates are expected to be 7-15% in 2010-2012, while import is to grow by 9-11%. Taking that into account, it should be expected that having reached the record-breaking positions in the world rating in the previous year in 2009 Russia will take lower positions.
As compared with the corresponding period of the previous year in January-February 2009 according to the data of the Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation the positive foreign trade balance of the Russian Federation reduced by 2.2 times 1 The main indices of the corrected forecast for social and economic development of the Russian federation for 2009, Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation, www.economy.gov.ru RESULTS OF WORLD TRADE WITH GOODS AND SERVICES...
and made USD 15.2 billion. At the same time export of goods reduced by 1.8 times – down to USD 39 billion, which is accounted for by the sharp drop of prices for the main export goods and the contraction of the external demand for them.
Import of goods reduced by 35.5% and made USD 23.8 billion, import of machine-building production decreasing by 47.5%, of foodstuffs and materials for their production – by 21.8%, of production of chemistry industry – by 31.3%.
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