billion rubles billion dollars 2-8.06.1-7.03.4-10.08.6-12.10.8-14.12.9-15.02.17-23.02.10-16.03.21-27.04.12-18.05.23-29.06.14-20.07.25-31.08.15-21.09.17-23.11.19-25.01.22-28.03.12-18.04.27.01-2.02.31.03-6.04.27.10-188.8.131.52.07-4.01.RUR Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Mar Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov Nov May May May As a result, effective real exchange ruble rate has grown by o.3 per cent: the real effective exchange ruble rate made 133.16 (See Fig. 3).
In March, downgrading of US dollar in the global currency market continued due to the new indicators of recession in the USA economy. The USD decline has resulted in its further downgrading in the RF foreign currency market: by the end of March the dollar rate was RUR 23.52, against RUR 24.12 as of March 1.
Significant US dollar weakness against RUR has resulted in increased value of the two-currency basket4 by 3 kopecks in February. As a result, EURO rate at the end of February has grown to RUR 37.07.
In April, during the official visit of the Russian President to Libya, an Agreement was signed on the write-off of Libyan debt to Russia in the amount of USD 4.5 billion. In exchange for the debt relief, the Libyan side is committed to conclude a number of contracts with Russian companies.
Financial MarketsN. Burkova In April the Russian financial market dynamics was determined by the situation in the global financial markets, based on the new positive trends. A number of positive macroeconomic news, indicating an increased business activity in the U.S. industry and reduced number of recourses for welfare from unemployed in the U.S., indicators of recovery of the world largest financial companies, as well as high volatility in oil prices led to a gradual recovery and growth of the world stock markets. Those trends were especially evident in the MISEX futures and options contracts market, where the investors' activity has increased by nearly per cent, as well as in the Russian corporate bonds market, where the investors' activity growth has exceeded 30 per cent within the month.
Government securities market In April the Russian Eurobonds have demonstrated in general a growing dynamics in the yields as a result of positive situation in the top world markets.
As of April 21, 2008, the Russian Eurobonds’ RUS-30 yield to maturity has grown from 5.31 to 5.49 per cent per annum as compared with the level of March 21, 2008), RUS-18 – from 5.33 to 5.34 per cent per annum (0.2. per cent), RUS-28 – from 5.97 to 6.0 per cent per annum (0.5 per cent), having demonstrated the utmost growth among government Eurobonds as per results of the month.
As of the same date, a reverse trend was observed in the yields of external currency debt bonds. Thus, the yield to redemption of the seventh tranche of external currency debt bonds has declines from 4.31 to 4.per cent per annum (by 3.0 per cent) against March 21 2008, of the fifth tranche the decline was noted from 3.51 to 2.62 per cent per annum (by 25.4 per cent). (See Figs 1-2)..
Throughout April, a high volatility was observed in the yields of the government ruble bonds. While the yields of the Russian Eurobonds was growing, the yields of However, the activity in the debt market was reduced (the declines of the turnover has exceeded 35 per cent).
Within the period from March 22, 2008 to April 21, 2008, the total turnover of GKO- OFZ secondary market amounted to approximately RUR 39.42 billion with an average daily turnover of RUR 1.88 billion.
(about RUR 61.10 billion with an average daily turnover of RUR 3.39 billion in March).
A number of auctions on additional OFZ placements were arranged in the period from March 22 to April 21, 2008. Thus, two auctions on additional placements of OFZ series 26200 and 46020 were held on March 26 for the amount of RUR 5 billion and RUR 10 billion, actual placement made RUR 0.52 billion and RUR 9.88 billion with an average weighted yield of 6.70 and 7.23 per cent per annum, accordingly. Two auctions on additional placements of OFZ series 46021 and 25062 were held April 9 for the amount of RUR billion and RUR 6 billion, actual placement made RUR 8.24 billion and RUR 5.58 billion with an average weighted yield of 6.69 and 6.42 per cent per annum, accordingly.
As of April 27, the GKO-OFZ market amounted to RUR 1101.43 bln at face value and to RUR 1095.bln at market value. The duration of the GKO-OFZ market portfolio was 2183.82 days, having increased by 8.15 days as compared with preceding month, when that duration was 2175.67 days (as of March 27, 2008).
Two-currency basket is the RF Central Bank operational indicator in its foreign currency policy. Currently the share of EURO in the currency basket makes 45 per cent, USD – 55 per cent.
In the course of preparation of the survey, there were used analytical materials and surveys published by the Zenith Bank, investment company ATON, MICEX, and the materials presented at web sites of Russian issuing companies.
Fig. Minfin bonds' yields to maturity in February - April 5,00% Tranche 5 Tranche 4,75% 4,50% 4,25% 4,00% 3,75% 3,50% 3,25% 3,00% 2,75% 2,50% Fig. Yields to maturity of the Russian eurobonds with maturity in 2010, 2018, and 2030 in February - April RUS-2030 RUS-2010 RUS-2018 RUS-6,3% 5,8% 5,3% 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% 3,3% 2,8% 2,3% Equity Market Stock market situation The new positive trends in the global stock markets have urged the growth of the majority of securities value in the Russian stock market, as well as in the market stock indices, in particular, the MICEX index (about by 3 per cent) as compared with preceding month. The volume of trades has not significantly changed as compared with March as a result of US dollar decline throughout April.
Throughout April a volatility was observed in the Russian stock market. Thus, a trend of MICEX index growth was several times replaced by short-term periods of its reduction within April. Such MICEX index upgrading in April has reflected general growth trend in the quotations of the Russian companies' equities (see Fig. 3).
01.02.06.02.11.02.14.02.19.02.22.02.28.02.03.03.06.03.11.03.14.03.19.03.25.03.28.03.02.04.07.04.10.04.15.04.18.04.01.02. 06.02. 11.02. 14.02. 19.02. 22.02. 28.02. 03.03. 06.03. 11.03. 14.03. 19.03. 25.03. 28.03. 02.04. 07.04. 10.04. 15.04. 18.04. Fig. Dynamics of MICEX Index and trading volume 140 2 000,The total volume of trading (roubles, 130 billion) 1 900,MICEX Index 120 1 800,110 1 700,100 1 600,90 1 500,80 1 400,70 1 300,60 1 200,50 1 100,40 1 000,30 900,20 800,10 700,0 600,In general, within the period from March 28 to April 27, 2008, the MICEX index has grown by 2.52 per cent in absolute terms and made 40.99 points (within the year, from April 27, 2007 to April 27, 2008 the MICEX index has downgraded by 0.56 per cent). Over the same period the turnover of trades in shares, included in the MICEX index, made about RUR 1,099.07 bln at an average daily turnover of RUR 52.34 bln.
(against RUR 1,057.8 billion with an average daily turnover of RUR 55.7 billion in the preceding period of February 29 – March 27). Therefore, the investors’ daily activity in the stock market in April has declined as compared with the preceding month by about 6 per cent. The indicators of maximum and minimum daily turnover in the market trades in April made RUR 81.28 bln (as of April 11) and RUR 34.09 bln (as of April 4) accordingly.
As of monthly results (from March 28, through March 27, 2008), practically all “blue chips” have shown positive dynamics in their market values. Thus, the utmost growth rates were demonstrated by "Gazprom Neft", grown by 9.25 per cent, followed by “Rosneft” (9.12 per cent) and LUKOIL (+7.35 per cent). Some lower growth rates were observed about shares of “Surgutneftegaz” (5.7 per cent), “Gazprom”(5.17 per cent), Sberbank of Russia (1.53 per cent), “Tatneft” (1.32 per cent). However, other “blue chips” quotations have been downgraded. Thus, the value of “Mosenergo” shares has declined by 15.05 per cent, RAO “UES of Russia” by 9.58 per cent, “Rostelecom” by 1.85 per cent and GMK “Nornickel” by 0.78 per cent. (See Fig. 4).
In March the MICEX turnover leaders were: “Gazprom”(28.6 per cent of the total turnover), “LUKOIL” (16.2 per cent), “Sberbank of Russia” (15.1 per cent), GMK “Nornickel” (10.4 per cent), and “Rosneft” (6.per cent). Total share of transactions with the above companies’ equities (“blue chips”) made about 87 per cent of the gross turnover in the classical MICEX stock market in the period over March 28 – April 27.
In terms of capitalization, as of April 27, the top five leaders of the domestic stock market were: “Gazprom” (RUR 7 111.5 bln, “Sberbank of Russia” (USD 1,924.0 bln), “Rosneft” (RUR 1 924.0 bln), “LUKOIL” (RUR 1 573.3 bln), GMK “Nornickel” (RUR 1 278.3).
points roubles, billion 01.02.20.02.14.03.02.04.19.04.10.05.29.05.18.06.05.07.24.07.13.08.30.08.18.09.05.10.184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.16.01.04.02.21.02.13.03.01.04.18.04.Fig.. Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from March 28 to April 27, 10,00% 7,50% 5,00% 2,50% 0,00% -2,50% -5,00% -7,50% -10,00% -12,50% -15,00% Change in price (%) Futures and options market From April 1 to 27 the investors’ activity in the MICEX futures and options market has explicitly increased (nearly by 6 per cent) as compared with the preceding month. Thus, in that period the total turnover in the MICEX futures market made about RUR 316.45 bln (739 transactions, 13 mln of contracts) against about RUR 199.27 bln (550 transactions, 8.1 mln of contracts) in March. Herewith, the utmost growth was observed in RUR/USD futures contracts, which amounted to RUR 309.25 (441 transactions, 12.98 mln of contracts) in April.
An adverse situation was observed in the RTS futures market, where the investors’ activity in April has expressly decreased (nearly by 17 per cent), as compared with the preceding month. Thus, in the period from March 28 through April 27, the total turnover in the RTS futures and options market amounted to approximately RUR 949.0 bln. (1832 transactions, 19.6 mln of contracts) against about RUR 1,022.1 bln (transactions, 19.7 mln of contracts) in March. The greatest demand, as before, was for futures: the volume of trading in futures in the period under review was RUR 770.7 bln (1,778 transactions, 14.6 mln of contracts).
Options enjoyed a far lower demand, with the volume of trading at about RUR 178.3 bln (54 transactions, 5.1 mln of contracts). The highest daily level of trading in the RTS futures market in April was RUR 60.bln (as of April 17), the lowest level was RUR 31.3 bln (as of April 4).
Corporate bond market In April there was noted a general upgrading dynamics in quotations of securities, traded in the corporate debt market. Improved situation with liquidity acted as a positive factor in the market. The investors’ activity in market has explicitly increased within April (over 20 per cent as compared with preceding month). However, the number of issues placements has decreased nearly twice against the preceding month from 26 to issues.
From March 22 through April 21 the price index of corporate bonds, traded on MICEX8, has grown by 0.49 points (by 0.45 per cent), as well as the index of the ten most liquid corporate bonds has upgraded by 0.88 points (by 0.76 per cent) (see Fig. 5). Within that period the total turnover in MICEX corporate bond sector amounted to RUR 72.20 bln with an average daily turnover of RUR 3.44 bln (about RUR 50.37 billion with an average daily turnover of RUR 2.80 billion in March), what demonstrated an insignificant, but steady upward trend in the investors’ activity within the month.
The calculation was based on indices of corporate bonds traded on MICEX. The indices were produced by the Zenit bank.
LUKoil Tatneft Rosnef t Gazprom Russia Mosenergo Rostelecom Sberbank of Gazprom neft GMK Not Nikel Surgutneftegas RAO UES Russia Fig. Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122,ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp120,118,116,114,112,110,108,External factors behind Russian stock market dynamics In April the Russian financial market dynamics was determined by the situation in the global financial markets, based on the new positive trends, i.e., a number of publications on positive macroeconomic news, indicating an increased business activity in the US industry, somewhat reduced expenditures on construction in the USA, lower job losses rates and reduced number of recourses for welfare from unemployed in the US, as well as indicators of recovery of the world largest financial companies according to their positive reporting. High volatility was observed in the oil market, where quotations were significantly variable within the month. Oil price in the stock market has reached the historical peak by the end of the month and accounted to USD 120 per barrel.
In April the downfall of the majority of the global indices was noted as compared with the indicators of early 2008. As opposed to that, the basic global indices dynamics were upgrading versus the indicators of the late March. Herewith, while the USA and Europe market indices have grown by 4 – 7 per cent on average (versus the indicators of late March) the emerging have demonstrated higher rates of growth (3 - 9 per cent) (see Table 1 and Fig. 6).
Table Dynamics of international stock market indices Dynamics Dynamics since Data as of April 27, 2008. Ticker Value within the the year month(%)* beginning(%) MICEX (Russia) MICEXINDEXCF 1668,86 3,10 -11,RTS (Russia) RTSI 2129,15 4,88 -7,Dow Jones Industrial (USA) Average (USA (USA) DJI 12891,86 4,79 -2,(USA) NASDAQ Composite (USA) NASD 2422,93 6,23 -8,S&P 500 (USA) SPX 1397,84 5,44 -4,FTSE 100 (UK) FTSE 6091,40 6,54 -5,DAX-30 (Germany) DAX 6896,58 4,84 -14,CAC-40 (France) CAC 4978,21 5,48 -11,Swiss Market (Switzerland) SSMI 7509,48 3,37 -14,Nikkei-225 (Japan) NIKKEI 13863,47 9,99 -9,Bovespa (Brasil) BUSP 65187,34 7,28 2,IPC (Mexico) IPC 31009,02 3,41 4,IPSA (Chile) IPSA 3019,58 4,61 -1,Straits Times (Singapore) STI 3189,20 6,59 -8,Seoul Composite (South Korea) KS11 1824,68 8,86 -3,ISE National-100 (Turky) XU100 43593,80 7,28 -21,Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index EFM 961,47 7,26 -4,* Versus indices, valid on March 28, 2008.