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In January-February 2006 vis--vis the respective period of the prior year, the oil export increased by 3.9%. The share of oil export in the total volume of Russian export made up 35.0%, while in the export of fuel and energy commodities 49.6%.

The high level of world oil prices determined considerable growth of export revenues. In 2005, the total income from the export of oil and main types of oil products (motor gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil) reached US $ 112.4 billion, which is the record level for the whole period of reforms (Table 6).

When compared, one may note that a minimum level of proceeds from the oil export was observed in conditions of fall of the world oil prices in 1998, when export revenues were only US $ 14 billion.

Table Revenues from exports of oil and oil products in 2002-2005, US $ billion.

2002 2003 2004 Revenues from exports of oil and the 38.7 51.1 74.6 112.main types oil products Source: calculated basing on the data of the Federal Service of State Statistics.

In parallel with this, it is observed a considerable increase of tax burden on the oil and gas sector. In 2005, there were introduced new rates of the mineral extraction tax (MET) for oil and natural gas, as well as a modified formula for calculation of the coefficient that characterizes the dynamics of the world oil prices and which is applied for the base rate of MET for oil. Raising of MET base rate and change in the computation formula of the adjustment coefficient led to considerable increase of the real tax rate (Table 7). At the price of Urals oil US $ 50 per barrel the real tax rate increased from US $ 7.9 per barrel (under the 2004 tax system) to US $ 9.0 per barrel, or by 13.9%. As a result, at a price US $ 50 per barrel, the share of MET in the oil price increased from 15.8% (under the 2004 tax system) to 18%.

Table MET rate in the production of oil in 2005-2006, Rb / metric ton Price of Urals oil, US $ per barrel.

20 30 40 50 MET Base rate 419 419 419 419 Coefficient 1.1924 2.2764 3.3604 4.4444 5.MET effective rate 500 954 1408 1862 Increase of MET effective rate vis-- vis the 2004 tax system, % 7.1 11.3 13.0 13.9 14.Source: Federal law # 33-FZ of 07.05.2004, Federal law # 126- FZ of 08.08.2001, authors calculations.

The use of more progressive scale for calculation of the export duty rate for oil (introduced since August 2004) boosted the efficiency of the tax system. The scale in question is oriented to withdrawal of extra profit received from oil export at high world oil prices (Table 8).

Table The export oil duty rate in 2005-2006.

World price of Urals oil Duty rate, US $ / metric ton Up to US $ 15 per barrel From US $ 15 to US $ 20 per barrel 0.35(Ts-15)7.From US $ 20 to US $ 25 per barrel 12.78+0.45(Ts -20)7.Above US $ 25 per barrel. 29.2+0.65(Ts -25)7.Source: Federal law # 33-FZ of 07.05.2004, Federal law # 126- FZ of 08.08.2001.

According to our calculations performed with employment of the model of financial flows of the oil sector, developed in IET, the tax payments of the enterprises of the sector increased from US $ 47.3 billion in 2004 to US $ 90.5 billion in 2005. Such a growth of tax payments was determined by both raising taxes themselves and considerable growth of world oil prices and increase of the volumes of production and export. As a result, according to out estimations, the share of taxes in the proceeds of the oil sector increased from 44.1% in 2004 to 56.6% in 2005. The share of taxes in the net income, that equals gross proceeds, excluding the capital and operational costs, increased from 72% in 2004 to 81% in 2005. The proportion of enterprises reduced from 28% to 19% (Table 9), respectfully.

As the analysis of the situation on the world oil market shows, a number of factors will foster in the short term maintenance of high level of world oil prices. First, as forecasted, the growth of the world economy and oil demand will be rather high. In 2006, the economic growth in OECD will be 2.9% vis--vis 1.8% in 2005. Second, an increase of oil production in the countries - non-OPEC members, will not allow to satisfy the world demand. In parallel with this, a substantial influence on the dynam ics of oil production outside OPEC will be made by decline in the growth rates of oil extraction in Russia. Third, as expected, idle oil extraction capacities will remain at a low level. Fourth, tension will remain in the processing and cargo transportation sectors, which is determined by the lack of available facilities. Fifth, the existing geopolitical risks will maintain high the level of uncertainty on the world oil market.

Table Main iudicators of tax burden on the oil sector in 2005.

Receipts, US $ billion 159.Net income, US $ billion. 112.Taxes, total, US $ billion. 90.Special taxes, US $ billion. 77.Taxes per 1 ton of extracted oil, US $ / metric ton 192.Net income, as % to receipts Taxes, as % to receipts 56.Taxes, as % to net income Net income, remaining at the disposal of enterprises, as % to receipts Net income, remaining at the disposal of enterprises, as % to net income Source: IET calculations.

In this connection, most of the leading organizations forecast in the near future the maintenance of extremely high level of world oil prices. In 2996, most of the current forecasts of the average Brent oil price is between US $ 58 and US $ 65 / per barrel. Thus, according to the base-case scenario of the latest (April of 2006) forecast of the U.S. Energy Department, the world oil price, defined as the average price of oil imported into the USA will make up in 2006 on average US $ 57.0 per barrel. Taking into account the correlation between Brent oil price and the average oil price imported into the USA, the Brent oil price will make up in this case in 2006 roughly US $ 63.0 per barrel. (Table 10). According to IET forecast9, The price of Brent oil in the following three months (May-July of 2006) will reach on average US $ 58.3 per barrel.

Table Forecast of world oil prices in 2006, US$ per barrel.

2002 2003 2004 2005 (forecast) Price of oil imported to USA*, US$ per barrel 23.7 27.7 36.0 49.0 57.Price of Brent 25.0 28.8 38.2 54.4 63.* Purchase price of oil for oil processing plants.

Source: U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, authors estimates.

Thus, the situation on the world oil market allows to expect in the short-term the high world oil prices and favorable external conditions for formation of the revenue part of the state budget, replenishment of the Stabilization fund and development of oil and gas sector.

Yu. Bobylev IET Business Survey: Industry in May of In spite of the weak data presented by the official statistics, the amounts of sales registered in the Russian industry continue to grow. At the same time, there was observed an increase in the intensity of the growth in output. As a result, the utilization of production capacities persisted at a record high level, whereas the availability of orders has reached the maximum value observed over the last years. Enterprises expect that these trends will persist in a few coming months.

See: The Bulletin of modeling calculations for short-term forecasts of the RF's socio-economic indices, March 2006. M.: IET, 2006.

The official statistical data characterizing the results of development of Russian industry in March have received mixed evaluations on the part of economists and officials. The Rosstat has published the data that the growth in output registered in March of 2006 made 4.1 per cent in comparison with the figures observed in March of 2005. In accordance with the estimates presented by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (as adjusted for the seasonal and calendar factors), in comparison with the figures registered in February, production increased by 0.7 per cent. However, the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short Term Prognostication (CMASTP) evaluated the March growth to be only at 0.2 per cent. Other analytical centers, basing on the same official statistical data, report that the output declined by 0.4 per cent (the Development Center), or even by 0.8 per cent (TsEK).

At the same time, heads of enterprises give much more optimistic estimations with respect to the standing and prospects of their enterprises as compared with the moderate results received by statistical agencies from accounts departments and planning sections.

Volumes of sales of manufactured goods continue to grow. In April, the balance of changes in this indicator (the rate of growth) reached the maximum value registered over 12 months made (after the adjustment for the seasonal factors) + 12 p. p. At the same time, the exclusion of the random component provides even more impressive result, not registered since the end of year 2000. A growth in sales was registered in April across all industries with the exception of the forestry complex. Therefore, at the moment the effective demand provides a good basis for industrial growth. The latter circumstance was immediately used by more than 70 per cent of enterprises, which reported about similar changes in demand for their products and own production. The IET business surveys have not registered such a high correspondence between the dynamics of output and demand since 1994.

The intensity of industrial output (basing on the directors evaluations) continued to enhance. In April, the balance (as adjusted for the seasonal factors) was registered to be at its best value since year 2000. Production grew across all industries, and even light industry (which demonstrated a decline in output over several last months) demonstrated positive results. As concerns this indicator, the leaders remained the same mechanical engineering and food industry. As a result, the utilization of production capacities persisted at the highest level (over 67 per cent). At the same time, the availability of orders was registered to be at the 12 year maximum; on the average, industry had orders for almost months of normal operation.

The data on positive dynamics demonstrated by the Russian industry were confirmed by yet another record: in April of 2006, the percentage of answers indicating insufficient demand and shortage of working capital as obstacles to the growth in output decreased as was at the absolute minimum (38 per cent each). At the same time, non-payments mentioned earlier as frequently as demand and working capital (70 per cent to 80 per cent) now hinder only 17 per cent of enterprises. However, other problems begin to mount. Competition with imports and the shortage of labor are already indicated as obstacles by 28 per cent of enterprises, whereas the lack of equipment is complained by 19 per cent to per cent of enterprises.

Enterprises have managed to a certain extent resolve the problem of the shortage of labor at the expense of hiring of new workers. In the beginning of the 2nd quarter of 2006, the balance of changes in the actual number of workers became positive and the reports indicating a growth in the number of employees exceeded the number of answers about a decline in the value of this indicator. Across industries, the growth in employment was registered in mechanical engineering, light and food industries, and ferrous metallurgy. However, the bulk (not less than 70 per cent) of enterprises reported no changes in the number of their employees.

Over the month, the evaluations of the stocks of finished products did not change: even in the situation characterized by an intensive growth in sales and output enterprises could maintain their stock resources at the traditional level slightly exceeding the current demand in order to immediately meet the demand on the part of new purchasers.

Over the last 18 months, the evaluations of the stocks of raw materials remained at the approximately same level slightly below the current demand. It seems that at present the shortage of working capital is still too significant, whereas credits are too expensive (see the Table below): even in the present situation of industrial growth enterprises are unable to satisfy their normal needs with respect to raw materials. Now, only 60 per cent of enterprises report their fully satisfaction with their reserves of raw materials. Across industries, the majority of such enterprises are registered in fuel industry ( per cent), nonferrous metallurgy (92 per cent), construction industry (88 per cent), and the forestry complex (75 per cent).


Utilization of credits in industry (in per cent of the number of enterprises, which responded to this question) 2003 2004 2005 No credits 12 8 10 For R & D, know-how, purchase of license 2 6 6 For reorganization of production 22 31 36 For expansion of output 13 23 24 For replenishing of working capital 66 68 70 For organization of sales 2 1 2 For wages and salaries 27 27 22 For fulfillment of export contracts 8 7 11 For repayment of debts to another bank 6 9 7 For repayment of debts to suppliers 14 9 11 The forecasts of changes in demand (as after the adjustment for the seasonal factors) have reached the absolute maximum: never before had there been registered such optimistic hopes for a growth in the sales of finished products. In a few next months, a growth in production is expected across all industries with the exception of light industry. The most optimistic expectations are registered in mechanical engineering, chemistry, petrochemistry, and food industry.

Good forecasts of demand permit enterprises to plan an intensive growth in output. April forecasts for a few next months have turned out to be the best in the whole period of monitoring since 1992. A growth in output is possible across all industries. The most intensive increase in production is expected in fuel industry, mechanical engineering, and food industry. Production plans of 67 per cent of enterprises correspond to the forecasts of changes in demand, whereas at 25 per cent of enterprises changes in output will exceed the changes in demand.

In a few next months, gains in productivity of labor are possible at about 40 per cent of Russian industrial enterprises; the majority of producers (55 per cent) prefer not to change the ratio between employment and output. After the default, the highest propensity to increase productivity of labor in industry was registered in the beginning of 2003 and made at that time 45 per cent.

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