However, later the confidence of investors was undermined by the publication of the US CPI data, which demonstrated an intensification of base inflation rates. The factors behind the negative sentiments of investors were the data on the labor and real estate markets, where growing indicators demonstrated the probability of the further increase in the inflationary pressure in the USA. On the whole, the Russian stocks followed the dynamics of the base assets and at certain moments their negative dynamics decelerated, what resulted in expansions of the RF sovereign spread. However, all these In the course of preparation of the survey, there were used analytical materials and surveys published by the Zenith Bank, investment company ATON, MICEX, and the materials presented at web sites of Russian issuing companies.
developments were short lived and during the next trading session the trends equalized. Over the second half of the month, the market was positively affected only by the publication of the news that the countries selling oil on the world market may increase their investments in US securities; however, this factor was also short lived and could not overweight such negative more fundamental factors as the growth in inflationary expectations.
As on April 21, the yield to maturity of Russian Eurobonds RUS 30 was 5.99 per cent p.a.; RUS 18:
6.13 per cent p.a. Besides, on the same date the yield to maturity of the Russian Eurobonds was: Minfin bonds, 7th tranche: 5.68 per cent; Minfin bonds, 6th tranche: 3.69 per cent; Minfin bonds, 5th tranche: 5.63 per cent; RUS 07: 5.61 per cent.
Minfin bonds' yields to maturity in February - April 6.0% Tranche 5 Tranche 6 Tranche 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% As earlier, the situation observed on the market of the Ruble denominated public debt was determined by the dynamics of the external debt market, which had a significant impact on quotations, whereas the relatively stable situation with liquidity in the banking sector and the ruble appreciation on the internal forex market supported quotations.
Over the period from April 3 to 21, the aggregate turnover of the secondary GKO OFZ market made about RUR 28.35 billion, while the average daily turnover was at RUR 1.89 billion (about RUR 98.45 billion and RUR 5.79 respectively in March). Therefore, the intensity of trade in the sector of government Ruble denominated bonds significantly decreased in April in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding month.
In this period, on the primary market there took place two auctions for the placement of OFZ PD 25059 and OFZ AD 46020. Thus, on April 19 the amount of issue of the former securities was registered at RUR 11 billion, whereas the market value demand made about RUR 13.76 billion, and the actual amount of the placement of the 25059 issue at the auction made about RUR 6.1 billion. The weighted average yield of the placement made 6.63 per cent p. a. On the same day, there was held the auction, where the second issue of securities was traded: the amount of the issue made RUR 9 billion, while the demand of investors was registered at the level of RUR 13.1 billion; as a result, the actual amount of placement made RUR 8.8 billion. The weighted average yield of the placement made 7.per cent p. a.
As on April 25, the amount of the GKO – OFZ market made RUR 777.04 billion at par and RUR 763.84 billion at the market value. The duration of the GKO-OFZ market portfolio was 2002.82 days.
Yields to maturity of the Russian eurobonds with maturity in 2030, 2018 and 2007 in February - April 6.5% USD-2030 USD-2007 USD-6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% The Market for Corporate Securities The business situation on the stock market.
In April, the Russian stock market again demonstrated a stable growth after a certain consolidation observed in March.
Over the first week of April, the market grew as a result of stable growth of raw materials markets, in particular, the oil market, and, in particular, the oil market, where quotations were registered to be very close to the historical maximums observed last August. Rather favorable business situation persisted on the world stock markets and the markets of developed countries. Among the internal factors, there should be noted the statements made by the authorities to the effect that a part of the debt to the Paris Club should be repaid early. All these developments facilitated stable demand for Russian stocks on the part of investors, at the same time, at the end of the week investors did not fixed their profits relating to stocks even after a certain decline in the indicators of the leading stock markets and an adjustment of the world oil prices.
The further growth in the index was to a certain degree determined by the changes in the methods of its calculation as concerned the accounting of the Gazprom shares. Therefore, the increase in the shares of this natural gas monopolist observed at the backdrop of positive financial results registered last year and a growth in reserves, as well as in the share of ADS facilitated an increase in the main Russian stock indicator. At the same time, at the ned of the second week of the month the market experienced an insignificant adjustment observed at the background of a decline in the world stock indices and the statement published by the ranking agency S & P that it was not going to raise the RF rating in spite of the intensive repayment of the public debt. However, already in the next trading session the market began to grow as a result of, first and foremost, a growth in the LUKoil, the Norilsk Nickel, and Rostelecom securities. As a result, the growth continued until the beginning of the last week of April. High oil prices (the Brent quotations in New York reached the level of US $ 72 per barrel), favorable corporate news, and the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics (a growth in industrial output registered in March) were the major factors supporting stock prices.
Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from March 29 to April 26, 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Change in price (%) On the whole, in the period from April 3 till April 26 of 2006, the RTS index increased by 15.05 per cent and made a new historical maximum of 1669.24, or by 218.36 points in absolute terms. Over the same period, the turnover of the RTS trading with stocks included in the RTS index amounted to about US $ 1.8 billion, while the average daily turnover at the RTS made about US $ 101 million (about US points mln US dollars s 01.03.18.03.05.04.21.04.12.05.27.05.15.06.01.07.19.07.04.08.22.08.07.09.23.09.11.10.126.96.36.199.01.12.19.12.12.01.30.01.15.02.06.03.23.03.10.04.Ukos Tatneft Sibneft GMK LUKoil Russia Gazprom Russia NorNikel RAO UES Mosenergo Rostelekom Sberbank of Surgutneftegas $ 1.45 billion and US $ 76.44 million respectively in March of 2006). Therefore, in April the activity of investors on the stock market was much higher than a month ago. The highest and the lowest volumes of trade at the RTS made US $ 224.49 million (on April 10) and US $ 13.38 million (on April 14).
Over the last month (from March 29 till April 26), all “blue chips” demonstrated a stable growth in quotations. In April, the leader in terms of the upward movement of prices was the shares in Norilsk Nickel (41.67 per cent), Gazprom (36.59 per cent), and YUKOS (35.38 per cent). Over the period under observation, the prices of shares in Sberbank RF and Surgutneftegaz increased by 21.13 per cent, whereas the prices of stocks of RAO UES of Russia grew by 20.86 per cent, LUKoil – by 16.per cent, Tatneft – by 15.69 per cent, Sibneft – by 14.75 per cent, and Rostelekom – by 12.06 per cent.
The prices of the shares in Mosenergo were characterized by significantly slower rates of increase in quotations, which made only 2.94 per cent over the month.
In April, the list of leaders in terms of the volume of turnover at the RTS5 looked as follows: the shares in Gazprom (62.1 per cent), LUKoil (9.7 per cent), the RAO UES of Russia (8.6 per cent), and Sberbank of Russia (3.2 per cent). Therefore, the aggregate volume of trade with the shares of these issuers made about 83.6 per cent. Besides, it should be noted that over April, the turnover of trade with Gazprom shares practically doubled with respect to the indicators registered in the preceding month.
Besides, it should be noted that according to the results of weekly trade, among the leaders in terms of the volume of turnover in some weeks there were also the securities of Norilsk Nickel and Surgutneftegaz.
As on April 26, the top five leaders of the national stock market by capitalization looked as follows6: Gazprom: US $ 257.67 billion; LUKoil: US $ 79.30 billion; Surgutneftegaz: US $ 61.45 billion;
Sberbank of Russia: US $ 31.62 billion; the RAO UES of Russia: US $ 31.30 billion; and Norilsk Nickel: US $ 24.45 billion.
The market for fixed term contracts. In April, the activity of investors on the RTS market for fixed term contracts (FORTS) significantly increased in comparison with the March indicators. Thus, in the period from April 3 till April 27, the aggregate volume of trade in futures and options at the RTS amounted to about RUR 220.49 billion (366.8 thousand transactions; 7.6 million contracts) as compared with about RUR 176.26 billion (303.26 thousand transactions; 6.66 million contracts) registered in March.
As earlier, futures contracts accounted for the greatest percentage of transactions: the volume of trade in these contracts made RUR 197.29 billion (353.89 thousand transactions and 6.69 million contracts,) over the period under observation. As before, options were in a much lower demand: the respective amount of trading made about RUR 23.21 billion (12.92 thousand transactions, 918.66 thousand contracts). The maximum trading volume on this market was observed on April 27 and made RUR 17.89 billion, while the minimum trading volume (RUR 5.71 billion) was registered on April 14.
Corporate bond market.
In April, the market of corporate and municipal bonds again demonstrated a gradual decline. The domestic debt market was under the pressure of the segment of Russian Eurobonds, the decline in which facilitated the deterioration of the business situation on the market of corporate and municipal debt.
In the beginning of the month the prices of bonds remained at the practically same level. Thus, in the beginning of the first week of the month prices gradually grew; these developments were partially facilitated by the appreciation of the Ruble against the US dollar and a relatively stable situation observed on the external debt market. At the same time, the funds, which became available as a result of foreign exchange sales, were in the first place invested in the bond market. However, later the deteriorating situation on the external debt market and the rising interest rates on the market of inter-bank credits facilitated a decline in prices, which continued over the second week of April. At the same time, higher rates of decline in quotations were observed with respect to the first echelon securities.
A rather active sale of Ruble denominated corporate and municipal bonds slowed down in the beginning of the last but one week of April, partially in the result of the Easter holidays in Europe, and, On the classical stock market.
According to the RTS.
therefore, the lack of nonresidents participating in the trading sessions. At the end of this week, the quotations of securities belonging to the first echelon declined, whereas the securities of the second and third echelon demonstrated mixed trends. In the beginning of the last week of the month the market was supported by a favorable business situation observed with respect to money liquidity and stabilization of the US debt market; however, in the second half of the week liquidity somewhat decline in connection with the tax payments.
From April 3 till April 25, the price index of corporate bonds traded at the MICEX7 decreased by 0.11 points (by 0.1 per cent), while the index of ten most liquid corporate sector bonds demonstrated a decline by 0.20 points (by 0.17 per cent). In the period from April 3 till April 21, the total turnover in the bond sector of MICEX made about RUR 13.6 billion and the average daily turnover was at the level of about RUR 907.96 million (about RUR 15.3 billion and RUR 898.89 million in March).
Therefore, over the first three weeks of April the turnover of the trade with the corporate debt instruments of Russian companies has somewhat increased in comparison with the figures observed in March.
FIGURE Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122.ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.104.External factors affecting the dynamics of the Russian stock market.
In April, the world oil market demonstrated stable positive dynamics for short periods interrupted by technical adjustments. In the beginning of the month, there started the growth in quotations, which almost reached historical maximums registered in August of the last year (more than US $ 68 per barrel). The factor behind this growth was the practically twofold decline in the gasoline reserves in the USA in comparison with the preliminary estimates. Later, the growth observed on the market was further facilitated by the mounting tensions in Nigeria, where there were observed clashes between the Army and the antigovernment forces, as well as a complicated situation around Iran. On the one hand, in the middle of the month, the General Director of IAEA visited Iran for negotiations, after the completion of which there was published information that Iran executes no works related to the uranium enrichment for military purposes. However, on the other hand, representatives of the US Administration voiced the necessity to introduce sanctions against Iran.
The indices of corporate bonds traded at the MICEX that have been used for the calculations are calculated by Zenit Bank.
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