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Financial Markets Indicators Month December January February March April* Monthly inflation rate 1,1% 2,6% 1,2% 1,3% 1,1% Inflation rate annualized on the basis of this 14,03% 36,07% 15,39% 16,77% 14,0% month's trend CB RF refinancing rate 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% Annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues (%) 6,11% 7,17% 7,08% 7,32% 7,2% Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ 66,54 25,07 18,31 23,25 27,market for the month (RUR billion) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 5th tranche 4,99% 5,07% 5,17% 5,77% 5,4% 6th tranche 4,20% 4,22% 4,99% 4,45% 4,3% 7th tranche 5,88% 5,75% 5,75% 6,19% 5,9% 8th tranche 4,49% 4,47% 4,53% 4,65% 4,7% Yield to maturity of Eurobonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 2005 10,17% 3,46% 3,49% 3,61% 3,4% 2007 6,35% 4,45% 4,43% 5,23% 4,8% 2010 6,95% 5,18% 5,77% 6,26% 5,9% 2018 7,02% 6,32% 6,19% 6,74% 6,4% 2028 7,57% 6,94% 6,82% 7,24% 6,9% 2030 6,64% 6,09% 6,07% 6,51% 6,1% INSTAR-MIACR rate (% p.a.) on interbank 1,03% 1,76% 0,94% 1,49% 2,0% overnight loans at the end of the month Official RUR / US$ exchange rate at the end of 27,7487 28,0845 27,7738 27,8256 27,the month Official RUR / Euro exchange rate at the end of 37,8104 36,625 36,6281 36,0564 36,the month Average annualized growth in RUR / US$ ex- -1,73% 1,21% -1,11% 0,19% -0,19% change rate Average annualized growth in RUR / Euro ex- 1,05% -3,14% 0,01% -1,56% -0,14% change rate Volume of trading at the stock market in the 365,31 166,72 416,70 363,30 RTS for the month (US$ million) Value of RTS-1 Index at the end of the month 614,11 640,41 716,59 669,42 Change in value of RTS-1 Index during the month -3,04% 4,28% 11,90 -6,58% 0,1% (%) * Estimate D. Polevoy The Real Sector of the Economy: Factors and Trends According to the preliminary data presented by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in the first quarter of 2005 the increase in GDP made 4.9 per cent as compared with 7.3 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The falling intensity of growth was a characteristic feature of practically all macroeconomic indicators. In the 1st quarter of 2005, the industrial production index made 103.9 per cent, the amount of works in construction was registered at 105.3 per cent, while the turnover of freight was at 102.7 per cent. The moderate growth in production of goods and services has determined the dynamics and structural specifics of domestic demand.

While the turnover of retail trade increased by 9.6 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in January through March of 2004, the growth in investment in fixed assets made only 7.6 per cent and was by 5.4 percentage points below the level observed in the preceding year.

In the beginning of this year, the macroeconomic situation was determined by the persisting effect of the trend towards the deceleration of the rates of economic growth observed since the second half of 2004. According to the preliminary data presented by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in the first quarter of 2005 the increase in GDP made 4.9 per cent as compared with 7.3 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The falling intensity of growth was a characteristic feature of practically all macroeconomic indicators with the exception of the foreign trade turnover. In the 1st quarter of 2005, the industrial production index made 103.9 per cent; the amount of works in construction was registered at 105.3 per cent, while the turnover of freight was at 102.7 per cent as compared with 107.4 per cent, 113.8 per cent, and 107.4 per cent respectively registered in the same period of the preceding year. The moderate growth in production of goods and services has determined the dynamics and structural specifics of domestic demand. Since the second half of 2004, construction has been replaced by trade in terms of the leading positions in the structure of economic growth. While the turnover of retail trade increased by 9.6 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in January through March of 2004, the growth in investment in fixed assets made only 7.6 per cent and was by 5.4 percentage points below the level observed in the preceding year.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Investment in fixed assets Retail trade turnover GDP Figure 1. Changes in the rates of GDP growth, retail trade turnover, and investment in fixed assets in 2000 through 2005, in per cent of the figures registered in the respective quarter of the preceding year.

It should be noted that the dynamics of domestic demand have been significantly affected by the slowdown of the rates of growth in real household incomes. In the 1st quarter of 2005, the increase in the real household incomes made 3.1 per cent as compared with 12.0 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year, while real wages and salaries grew by 7.4 per cent, and real gross pensions increased by 1.9 per cent as compared with 15.0 per cent and 7.0 per cent respectively.

At the backdrop of accelerating dynamics and significant transformation of price proportions, the structure of household incomes has begun to be affected by increasing inflationary expectations of the populace. As concerns the structure of utilization of household cash incomes, it should be noted that the share of expenditures for purchase of goods has significantly increased. The turnover of retail trade with food products was determined by the shift in the consumer demand to the segment of cheaper products, what was determined by the falling purchasing power of cash household incomes across major food items. In the structure of retail trade turnover, the amount of sales of nonfood products has started to increase at outpacing rates. There is no doubt that a more smooth growth in prices of the nonfood group of goods in comparison with food products and paid services facilitated the development of this trend.

Purchase of Payments for Taxes and Savings Purchase of Cash on hand of goods services related foreign households -payments exchange 2003 2004 Figure 2. The structure of utilization of cash household incomes in the 1st quarter of 2003 through 2005, in per cent of the total The market of paid services has been forming at the backdrop of accelerating dynamics of prices and tariffs (up to 112.6 per cent registered in the 1st quarter of 2005 as compared with 106.4 per cent observed in the respective period of the preceding year). As concerns the monitored types of services, this year the prices and tariffs in the sector of housing and public utilities (126.5 per cent), as well as transport (105.8 per cent), grew most dynamically. Since the beginning of 2005, the changes in the indices of tariffs on housing and public services were equivalent to the dynamics of these indicators registered in the preceding year at large. As a result, the housing and public services took the first place in the structure of paid services rendered to households and made more than one fourth of the total amount of paid services. It was a factor behind an increase in the expenditures for services in the structure of cash household incomes by almost 2.0 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in January through March of 2004. Besides, the dynamic growth of the number of cars owned by households, as well as the increasing scales of housing construction at the expense of own household funds has initiated development of the respective markets of services. As concerns the public services rendered to households, more than half of the respective expenditures related to the aggregate share of services for technical repairs and maintenance of transport vehicles, machinery, and equipment (23.per cent), and repairs and construction of housing (25.7 per cent). The growth of the market of services relating to the technical repairs and maintenance of transport vehicles combined with the expansion of amounts of sales of cars and growing demand for fuels and lubricants on the part of the population also had a significant effect on the structure of current consumer household expenditures. It should be noted that in March of 2005 there again recovered the trend towards a growth in prices of car gasoline, which had a significant impact on the dynamics and structure of household expenditures.

I II III IV I 2004 -Industry Extraction of minerals Production and distribution of electrical pow er, natural gas, and w ater Extraction of fuel and energy resources Manufacturing industries Figure 3 The rates of growth / decline in industrial output across the types of activities in 2004 and 2005, in per cent of the figures registered in the respective quarter of the preceding year Structural shifts in the industry occurred at the backdrop of the outpacing rates of growth in manufacturing branches as compared with the extracting sector. In spite of the fact that the beginning of this year was characterized by the acceleration of the monthly rates of growth in manufacturing industries, on the whole in the 1st quarter of 2005 the increase in the output of manufacturing industries made 5.per cent as compared with 9.6 per cent observed in the respective period of the preceding year. In comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year, there was observed an increase in the differentiation of the rates of growth across individual types of activities.

In the 1st quarter of this year, the production of consumer goods was characterized by a rather stable growth in the output of food products (103.3 per cent) at the backdrop of the permanent crisis of the textile, clothing, leather, and footwear production. The specific feature of the 1st quarter of 2005 was the overcoming of the slump observed in woodworking at the expense of the dynamic growth in the output of materials used for production of furniture.

A specific feature of manufacturing industries was the persistence of outpacing rates of growth in production of electrical equipment, electronic and optical equipment (112.3 per cent), machinery and equipment (113.8 per cent), and transport vehicles (107.2 per cent). The dynamic growth in the output of machinery and equipment purposed for metallurgical industries, oil extraction, and railroad transport has still had a positive impact on the market of investment products. At the same time, the slump by 6.8 per cent in automotive industry in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2004 has determined not only the moderate dynamics of production of transport vehicles, but has also affected the complex of related industries. Given the dynamics of investment demand for machinery, equipment, and construction materials observed this year, there was also registered a slowdown of the rates of growth in metallurgical production and production of finished metal articles by 2.3 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the 1st quarter of 2004.

In spite of the exceptionally favorable business situation formed on the world market, the export oriented branches of the extracting industry demonstrated a slowdown in the rates of growth to 102.per cent as compared with 108.4 per cent registered in January through March of 2004. The rates of increase in oil extraction made 103.6 per cent in comparison with 110.7 per cent, while the extraction of metal ores fell by 0.6 per cent. The diminishing intensity of extraction of fuel and energy resources has not affected the dynamics of export. In January and February of 2005, the increase in the export of crude oil made 137.2 per cent as compared with 109.9 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year.

In the situation where the rates of growth in the export of hydrocarbon resources and metals outpaced the dynamics of domestic demand, while the profitability of extracting industries increased to 21.1 per cent and manufacturing industries demonstrated the growth in profitability to 12.6 per cent, the share of revenues in GDP increased by 1.1 p. p. in comparison with the figures observed in the 1st quarter of 2004.

At the same time, an analysis of the development of the economy demonstrates that exactly the industries oriented towards the domestic market are becoming a major factor of growth. However, these industries have no adequate investment support. According to the surveys conducted by IET, in the excess of production capacities declined to 11 per cent, while the share of investment in the development of final production has remained at an exceptionally low level and makes only 7.4 per cent.

O. Izryadnova IET Business Survey: Industry in April of The results of the April survey have demonstrated a slowdown of the rates of growth in demand and output, and an increase in the redundancy of finished stocks; however, it should be noted that these developments occurred at the background of a rise in the share of enterprises reporting about normal finished stocks and demonstrating growing confidence of forecasts.

According to the analysis of the official Rosstat data for March performed by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short Term Prognostication (CMASTP), there is observed a slowdown in the rates of recovery of the industry. In March, the average daily output remained practically at the level registered in the preceding month (+ 0.1 per cent). On the average, in January through March the increase in output made 0.2 per cent a month as compared with 0.7 per cent a month observed in the 4th quarter of 2004. The sharp decline in the rates of industrial recovery was related to the transition to the stagnation of the output of manufacturing industries. These official data do not tally with the previously received reports, what may be explained by the fact that in January of 2005 Rosstat switched to the new classification of industries. We continue to use the OKNKh classification, what determines the comparability of the results of our surveys over time.

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