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The referendum for the unification of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Taimyr and Evenki Autonomous Areas (the turnout barrier was not overcome only in Achinsk and Kansk, where mayoral elections took place, with inevitable civil control on the part of candidates) had been completed successfully. Nonetheless, to a large extent, the success of the referendum could be explained by the fact that the financial and industrial group Interrosa has had power over both the main donor Taimyr and Krasnoyarsk Territory. The North Ossetia president A. Dzasokhov refused to sign the prepared by D.

Kozak decorative plan of settlement of 1992 political conflict in Prigorodny region. However, his term of office expires, and more important will be an opinion of his successor to the presidency.

S. Zhavoronkov Budgetary and Tax Policy In accordance with the preliminary results of the execution of the RF federal budget in January through March of 2005, the level of revenues of the RF federal budget made 28.31 per cent of GDP, while the level of expenditures of the federal budget was registered at 15.91 per cent of GDP, and the budget surplus made 12.61 per cent of GDP. According to the data as on April 1, 2005, the amount of financial reserves accumulated in the RF Stabilization Fund was registered at Rub. 768.45 billion.

Therefore, in March Rub. 60.95 billion were transferred in the RF Stabilization Fund.

The State of the Federal Budget.1 According to the preliminary estimates presented by the RF Finance Ministry, in January through March of 2005 the revenues of the federal budget made Rub.

1 199.06 billion in terms of the execution of the budget on the cash basis (or 28.31 per cent of GDP), the expenditures of the federal budget were registered at Rub. 673.79 billion (or 15.91 per cent of Because of the changes in the classification of the budgetary revenue and expenditure items, as well as the nonavailability of official information on the execution of the consolidated RF budget for year 2005, the revenue and expenditure items of the consolidated budget have not been analyzed.

GDP). The surplus of the federal budget made Rub. 525.27 billion (or 12.4 per cent of GDP). It should be noted that in 2005 the amount of revenues of the federal budget significantly exceeded the value of this indicator registered in the respective period of the preceding year, which at that time made Rub.

688.58 billion (or 19.7 per cent of GDP). In January through March of 2005, the expenditures borne by the RF federal budget also increased in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2004, which at that time made Rub. 553.89 billion or 15.8 per cent of GDP. The surplus of the federal budget registered in the period under observation also significantly surpasses the value of this indicator observed in 2004 (Rub. 134.68 billion or 3.8 per cent of GDP).

In February and March of 2005, the amount of the revenues of the RF federal budget made Rub.

293.05 billion and Rub. 449.13 billion respectively, or were at 20.78 per cent and 29.35 per cent of the monthly GDP amount. The expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in February and March of 2005 made respectively Rub. 194.76 billion (or 13.81 per cent of GDP) and Rub. 228.3 billion (or 14.92 per cent of GDP), while the surplus of the RF federal budget was registered at the level of Rub.

98.29 billion and Rub. 220.8 billion, what respectively made 6.97 per cent and 14.43 per cent in terms of the shares in GDP. Therefore, it should be noted that in March there was registered a significant increase in budgetary revenues as compared with the figures observed in February both in the absolute terms and in per cent share of GDP.

In January through March of 2005, the revenues of the RF federal budget evaluated in accordance with the method of distribution of revenues2 made 19.13 per cent (Rub. 810.05 billion), while in terms of the execution of the budget on the cash basis the revenues were registered at 28.31 per cent (Rub.

1 199.06 billion). For the structure of revenues over the period under observation, see Table 1.

Table 1.

Amounts of revenues of the RF federal budget in January through March of (in per cent of GDP, in terms of revenue distribution and cash basis execution) Distribution of revenues Cash basis execution January February March January February March Taxes and other payments adminis11,7% 10,58% 10,32% 24,97% 17,43% 16,17% tered by the Federal Tax Service Taxes and other payments adminis8,78% 8,20% 7,75% 8,93% 9,04% 9,09% tered by the Federal Customs Service Receipts administered by the Federal Agency for Management of Federal 0,23% 0,19% 0,17% 0,33% 0,21% 0,19% Property Revenues of the federal budget admin0,56% 0,65% 0,89% 1,06% 1,05% 2,87% istered by other federal structures Total revenues 21,27% 19,63% 19,13% 35,28% 27,72% 28,31% In January through March of 2005, the revenues of the RF federal budget estimated in accordance with the revenue distribution method made 19.13 per cent, while in terms of the cash basis execution the respective figure made 28.31 per cent (see Table 1). The bulk of the tax revenues was associated with the taxes and other payments administered by the RF Federal Tax Service (10.32 per cent in terms of revenue distribution and 16.16 per cent as estimated on the cash basis), as well as the taxes and other payments administrated by the RF Federal Customs Service (7.75 per cent in terms of revenue distribution and 9.09 per cent as estimated on the cash basis). The rest of tax generated revenues fell within the receipts administered by the Federal Agency for Management of Federal Property and the revenues of the RF federal budget administered by other federal structures. The total amount of these revenues in per cent of GDP made about 1.06 per cent in terms of revenue distribution and 3.per cent as estimated on the cash basis.

In January through March of this year, the expenditures of the RF federal budget evaluated in accordance with the revenue distribution method made Rub. 811.32 billion or 19.16 per cent in terms of The financing of the expenditures borne by the federal budget (distribution of revenues) is defined as the actual allocation of the amounts of financing carried out by the chief administrators of the financial resources of the federal budget (CABFR) via the expenditure schedules pertaining to the networks within their respective jurisdictions over the period under observation.

share in GDP. For the preliminary data on the financing of the expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in January through March of 2005 presented by the RF Finance Ministry, see Table 2.

Table 2.

Amounts of financing of the expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in January through March of 2005 (in per cent of GDP) Distribution of revenues January February March Federal issues 6,04% 4,81% 3,44% Including expenditures associated with the servicing of 3,75% 3,14% 2,01% the public and municipal debt National defense 7,62% 4,61% 3,54% National security and law enforcement 5,93% 3,38% 2,54% National economy 0,90% 0,92% 0,87% Housing and public utilities 0,01% 0,01% 0,01% Environmental protection 0,04% 0,04% 0,03% Education 1,43% 1,07% 0,86% Culture, cinematography, and mass media 0,43% 0,26% 0,22% Health care and sports 0,94% 0,66% 0,50% Social policy 2,45% 1,25% 0,97% Interbudgetary transfers 16,48% 8,06% 6,18% Total expenditures 42,27% 25,06% 19,16% It should be noted that by the end of March the share of expenditures in GDP made 19.16 per cent, what was significantly below the values of the respective indicators registered in January and February of 2005. The largest amounts of financing were observed in the sphere of interbudgetary transfers (6.18 per cent of GDP), national defense (3.54 per cent of GDP), federal issues (3.44 per cent of GDP), including the servicing of the expenditures associated with the servicing of the public and municipal debt (2.01 per cent), and national security and law enforcement (2.54 per cent). Other expenditure items totaled to about 3.46 per cent of GDP.

According to the data as on April 1, 2005, the amount of financial reserves accumulated in the RF Stabilization Fund was registered at Rub. 768.45 billion. Therefore, in March Rub. 60.95 billion were transferred in the RF Stabilization Fund.

Major developments in the budgetary sphere. At the meeting of the RF Government held on April 21, 2005, A. L. Kudrin, the RF Finance Minister, presented the report On the key indicators of the long term financial plan of the Russian Federation for years 2006 through 2008. The estimates of the key indicators of the long term financial plan for years 2006 through 2008 were prepared on the basis of the values of the indicators set as the scenario based conditions of social and economic development of the country in 2006 through 2008 and represent the first phase of the work on the formation of a detailed (across the subjects of budget planning) long term financial plan of the Russian Federation and the draft federal budget for year 2006.

The estimates of the key parameters of the plan were developed in two versions: the expected (proceeding from the average annual price of the Urals crude oil registered at the level of US $ 34 per barrel) and basic variant (where the oil price was at the level of US $ 28 per barrel). Each variant contains evaluations of budget revenues and the parameters of budget expenditures in accordance with the tax legislation currently in force and the tax legislation to be enacted since January 1, 2006, as well as the laws planned for enactment in years 2007 and 2008.

Revenues of the RF budgetary system in years 2005 and 2006. The expected execution of the revenues of the budgetary system in 2005, taking into account the mobilization of tax arrears, will make Rub. 7501.4 billion (or 37.4 per cent of GDP), or, without the mobilization of tax arrears, will be at Rub. 7230.5 billion (or 36.1 per cent of GDP), what is by Rub. 882.7 billion above the targeted level. The expected surplus of the revenues generated in the budgetary system is determined by the fact that the actual average annual price of the Urals crude oil was higher than that forecasted in the course of formation of the budget (the excess made US $ 11 per barrel), as well as additional receipts of the federal budget and consolidated budgets of RF subjects associated with the repayment of tax arrears.

It is envisaged that in year 2006, the amount of revenues generated in the framework of the budgetary system will make Rub. 7619.9 billion (or 33.1 per cent of GDP), while in 2007 the respective amount will make Rub. 9441.7 billion (or 32.2 per cent of GDP). The growth in the gross domestic product will have a significant impact on the increase in the amounts of revenues in comparison with the figures observed in 2005. At the same time, the decline in the expected average annual price of the Urals crude oil from US $ 39 per barrel to US $ 34 per barrel, as well as the decrease in the average price of natural gas exported to the countries outside the former Soviet Union from US $ 170.5 per thousand cubic meters to US $ 153.5 per thousand cubic meters alongside with the planned changes in the tax legislation (as concerns the profit tax on organizations, VAT on the goods sold in the territory of the Russian Federation, excises, the mineral extraction tax), as well as the Ruble appreciation will result in a decline in revenues.

Similarly to the situation expected in 2006, in 2007 the growth in the gross domestic product will have a significant impact on the increase of revenues, as well as the US dollar appreciation. At the same time, the decline in the expected average annual price of the Urals crude oil and the decrease in the average price of natural gas exported to the countries outside the former Soviet Union alongside with the changes in the tax legislation will result in a decline in budgetary revenues.

In the case the business situation on the international markets of energy resources deteriorates, for instance in the case in 2006 the price of the Urals oil price declines to US $ 28 per barrel and its further stabilization at this level, the revenues of the RF budgetary system will decrease in comparison with the targets envisaged in the framework of the expected variant by Rub. 499.9 billion in 2006 and by Rub. 536.2 billion in 2007, while in 2008 the decline in revenues may make Rub. 685.9 billion and the amount of transfers to the RF Stabilization Fund will decrease by Rub. 301.4 billion, Rub. 257.billion, and Rub. 259.4 billion in 2006, 2007, and 2008 respectively.

The revenues estimated to be generated in the budgetary system in the framework of the basic variant, which proceeds from the favorable economic situation and sets the targets of the RF federal budget for the next financial year and the medium term outlook, in the terms of shares in GDP should make 32 per cent, 31.6 per cent, and 31.9 per cent in 2006, 2007, and 2008 respectively.

Expenditures of the RF budgetary system in 2006 through 2008. The expected amount of expenditures borne by the budgetary system is calculated proceeding from the parameters of the budgetary system in the situation of changing tax legislation and a rise in the stop out price of the Urals crude oil from US $ 20 to US $ 27 as concerns the transfers to the RF Stabilization Fund.

The amount of expenditure obligations of the federal budget is estimated to make Rub. 3689.0 billion in 2006, Rub. 4095.4 billion in 2007, and Rub. 4679.8 billion in 2008.

Over the period under observation, the amounts of interest expenditures of the RF federal budget (not taking into account the early repayment of the foreign public debt) will make Rub. 226.9 billion, Rub. 238.6 billion, and Rub. 232.2 million respectively. The amounts of expenditures borne in relation to the servicing of the public debt will be also affected by such factors as the scope and nature of arrangements with the member countries of the Paris Club with respect to the early repayment of the debt, the use or, on the contrary, the refrain from the use of the world financial markets for the purposes of refinancing of the payments associated with the settlement and servicing of the public debt, the changes in the direct exchange rates of the Ruble against the US dollar and Euro, as well as a number of other factors.

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