The high level of world oil prices determined considerable growth of incomes from export. By contrast, the oil export in natural terms declined in January-September 2005 by 1,5%, in comparison with the respective period of previous year while the oil products – increased by 15,5% (Table 5). The share of export in the commodity resources of the fuel oil made up 68,9%, diesel fuel – 57,3%, automobile fuel – 19,5% (for comparison: in 1999, the share of export in the production of automobile fuel was only 7,2%). In contrast to the previous several years, that were characterized by noticeable growth of oil products import, in 2005 one could observe its contraction. In January-September 2005, the import of oil products lowered by 68%, as compared to the respective period of the prior year. In parallel with this, the import of automobile fuel in January-September 2005 declined by 98%, in comparison with the previous year, while the share of import in the resources of the automobile fuel made up only 0,03% (for comparison: in the first half of 1998, i.e. before the ruble devaluation, the proportional weight of import in the resources of automobile fuel was 8,7%).
In comparison with the prior year, the growth rates of gas export, somewhat decreased, which was determined by lowering of its deliveries to the CIS-countries (the deliveries of gas to those countries in January-September 2005 declined by 11,2%).
Table Domestic prices for Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas in US dollars in 2000-(Average Prices of Producers, USD/t) 2000 2001 2002 2003 December December December December December Oil 54.9 49.9 60.7 70.1 123.Automobile fuel 199.3 151.5 168.8 236.9 333.Diesel fuel 185.0 158.5 153.8 214.3 364.Fuel oil 79.7 47.1 66.1 66.0 69.Gas, USD/thou. cub. m 3.1 4.8 5.9 4.4 10.Table 4 Cont’d 2005 2005 2005 2005 March June September October November Oil 120.7 150.4 194.9 201.0 190.Automobile fuel 287.2 316.4 379.1 386.6 362.Diesel fuel 347.5 347.4 439.9 455.6 437.Fuel oil 75.4 117.8 168.5 178.1 161.Gas, USD/thou. cub. m 12.1 11.9 12.3 13.1 11.Source: calculated according to the data of the Federal Service of State Statistics.
Table Export of Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas from Russia, in % to the Previous Year 2002 2003 2004 (9 month.) Oil, total 113,9 117,8 115,0 98,including:
to countries – not CIS 109,9 118,9 116,3 98,members to CIS countries 137,3 112,4 108,3 98,Oil products, total 118,5 103,6 105,5 115,including:
to countries – not CIS 119,1 102,6 104,9 116,members to CIS countries 102,8 132,3 117,9 88,Gas, total 102,4 102,0 105,5 103,Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
As an analysis of the data on production and export of oil and oil products shows, practically all the additionally produced (in 2005,) oil was exported in the form of oil products obtained from it. As a result, the share of net export of oil and oil products in oil production reached, according to our preliminary estimate, 73,7%, while the net oil export amounted 53,5% of its production. In 2005, the share of net gas export amounted, according to the preliminary estimate, 31,5%. Major part of the energy resources (84% нефти, 96% oil products and 77% gas) was exported outside the CIS.
The total income of the export of oil and the main types of oil products (automobile fuel, diesel fuel, fuel oil) reached in January-October 2005 USD 90.4 bn, which is the record level over the whole period of reforms (Table 6). It may be noted, for comparison, that the minimal level of incomes from oil export is observed in conditions of fall of the world oil prices in 1998, when the export earnings made only USD 14 bn. The proportional weight of crude oil in the Russian export in January-November 2005 made up 34,8% (in 2004 – 32,5%).
Table Revenues form the Export of Oil and Oil Products in 2000-2005, bn dollars 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 (month.) Earnings from the export 34,9 33,4 38,7 51,1 74,6 90,of oil and basic types of oil products Source: calculated according to the data of the State Federal Statistics Service.
The past year was characterized by considerable raising of tax burden on the oil sector. According to our calculations, conducted with the use of the developed (in IET) model of financing the flows of oil sector, the tax payments of oil-producing and oil-refining branches increased since USD 48.8 bn in 2004 to (according to preliminary estimate) USD 88.4 bn in 2005. Such growth of tax payments was determined by both raising of taxes themselves and considerable growth of 8the world oil prices, as well as increase of the volume of production and an export of oil and oil products. As a result, according to our calculations, the share of taxes in earnings of the oil sector increased since 45,4% in 2004 to 59,5% in 2005. The share of taxes in after-tax earnings, equaling to gross earnings, after the deduction of capital and operational expenditures, raised since 81%, in 2004, to 91%, in 2005. Accordingly, the share of enterprises in net profit reduced since 19% to 9% (Table 7).
Table Indicators of Tax Burden on the Oil Sector in2000- 2000 2003 2004 2005* Taxes, $ bn 15.0 29.1 48.8 88.Taxes per 1 ton of produced oil, $/t 46.5 69.0 106.4 188.Taxes, % to earnings 28.3 37.4 45.4 59.Taxes, % to after-tax earnings 57 80 81 After-tax earnings remained at command of enter43 20 19 prises, % to after-tax earnings *Estimate Source: IET calculations.
As analysis of the situation on the world oil market shows that a number of factors will contribute to retaining the high level of world oil prices in the near future. First, as forecasted, the growth of the world economy and oil demand will be rather high. Second, according to estimates, an increase of oil production in the countries – non OPEC-members - will not allow to satisfy the world demand.
Lowering of growth rates of the oil production in Russia will exert considerable influence on the dynamics of oil production outside OPEC. Third, as expected, idle production facilities on oil production, which lately noticeably contracted, will remain at a low level. Fourth, according to expectations, an intensity will remain in the sectors of cargo carriage and processing, determined by the limited number of facilities. Fifth, geopolitical risks, such as instability in Iraq, will keep the high level of uncertainty on the world oil market.
As a result, according to the base version of the latest (January 2006) forecast of the US Energy Department, the leading organization in the field of analysis and forecasting the development of the world oil market, the world oil price, determined as average price of oil, imported to the U.S. in 2006, will be at an exceedingly high level and will make, on average, USD 56.2 a barrel. Considering the actually existed correlation between the price of oil Brent and average price of oil imported into the U.S., the price of oil Brent will make in 2006, in such a case, roughly USD 62 a barrel (Table 8). According to the IET forecast, the price of oil Brent will make on average around USD 56 a barrel in the following three months (February-April 2006). Most of other organizations forecast that the level of world oil prices will remain exceedingly high in the short run.
Table Forecast of the World Oil Price in 2006, $/barrel 2002 2003 2004 2005 (forecast) Price of oil imported into the U.S.*, $/barrel 23.7 27.7 36.0 49.3 56.Price of oil Brent 25.0 28.8 38.2 54.4 62.* Producer’s prices in deals with oil refineries.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, author’s estimates.
Thus, according to the latest forecasts, the world price of oil Brent may make in the near future USD 55-62 a barrel, which will roughly correspond to the price of Russian oil Urals USD 51-58 a barrel. This will allow to expect remaining in the near future favorable external conditions for the formation of revenue side of the state budget, replenishments of the Stabilization fund and the development of oil and gas sector of the Russian economy.
Yu.N. Bobylev The State of Affairs in Industry in January 2006.
The first data on the state of industry in January 2006 are more likely positive than negative. The main thing: the growth of output remained supported with the growth of demand, assessments of the stock finished products (under the growth of their volumes!) remained unchanged, while the restraining influence of most obstacles to the output growth lowered.
The Rosstat (Federal State Statistic Service) data for December testifies to maintenance of the trend towards growth of the output production. According to estimates of the Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, the daily average output of production increased in December by 0,5% (seasonality is cleared). On average, over the first quarter the monthly average increment rate of the production made 0,7%, which is noticeably higher than the respective value in the previous months. According to Rosstat data, the industrial output index in 2005, in comparison with 2004, made up 104,0%.
In January the growth of effective demand retained for industrial products. Of course, the initial data showed absolute decline in sales, however, the intensity of decline was not so strong as in January 2005 and in 2004, and clearance from seasonality made the balance positive: actually, the demand was growing, and even more intensively than in November 2005. Still, the enterprises counted on the more intensive growth of sales: the assessments of demand satisfaction became the worst for the past months. The share of answers “beneath the mark” reached 50% and exceeded the ones “normal”. As a result, there became the greater number of enterprises (in industry) not satisfied by their sales. However, such exceedance (2 points) was minimal for January through all the years of monitoring. The Dominance of enterprises satisfied with the demand remained in January only in fuel, metallurgic, chemical, petrochemical and the woodworking sectors.
January saw also the continuation of growth of industrial production, but, as expected, with less intensity. The balance (intensity) of output growth (after the seasonal clearance) constitutes by industry as a whole +5 points. Reduction of this indicator was registered by the polls in all sectors, and most considerable – in the light and food industries. The January decline in output growth rates may appear a short-term phenomenon, that does not determine the main trends of industrial dynamics in 2006.
Such a conclusion can be made basing on the results of monitoring the factors that restrain the growth of production. According to enterprises, the spread (frequency of mentioning) of most of obstacles decreased early in the year. The historical minimum in the spread was registered for such obstacles as shortage of current assets (38%), non-payment of consumers (15%), deficit of raw materials and semifinished products (6%). Though insignificant, the growth was registered in mentioning only two obstacles: low domestic demand (2 points) and competing import (3 points). However, the correlation of these two factors disquiets, particularly at the background of aggravation of competition. Basically, it was the competition with producers from the near-abroad and far-abroad countries that boosted in 2005 the growth of competition on the sales markets of Russian industrial enterprises. Over the past year the indices of these lines of competition raised by 0.45 point each. Since the start of monitoring in 1995, no polls registered such a sharp rise in competition with import.
The considerable part of produced in the last months products was intended in Russian industry for replenishment of the stock of finished products. As a result, for the first time in ten years their volumes increased considerably. But if earlier (in 1993-94 and 1996-1997 i.e. before the default) the growth of stock was compulsory and unwanted, now the situation has changed radically. Under the conditions of growth of sales and optimistic forecasts of demand, the enterprises did not change estimations of the grown volumes of stock, retaining them on previous level of standard (for the past years) excess. They are sure that products stored on the warehouses will be sold in the coming months.
Early in the year, the forecasts of change of demand (not cleared from seasonality) improved just by 35 points. Clearance from seasonality showed the growth of “only” by 6 points, but the result proved to be the best since the second half of 2005. The more intensive growth of sales is expected in all branches of industry, and most strong – in metallurgy, building industry, chemistry, petrochemistry and the light industry.
The production plans of enterprises equally (essentially) improved. The balance of output forecasts (prior to clearance from seasonality) increased in January by 42 points, after the clearance – by points and also became the best since June 2005. An increase of growth rates of production is planned in all industries, and most considerable – in fuel, metallurgic, woodworking, chemical and petrochemical industry.
However, optimistic plans on boosting the output may encounter the shortage of qualified staff, which, judging by enterprises’ forecasts becomes to be for industry more and more complicated. Late in 2005, this obstacle restrained the operation of a great (more than ever) number of enterprises. The pool of excessive employment was exhausted even in late 2004. The enterprises’ attempts to employ new workers were not a success in 2005 – actually, the number pf personnel reduced, despite enterprises’ plans to increase it. Most intensively the process of reduction proceeded in late 2005. Notwithstanding the positive balance of employment plans in January 2006 ( i.e. enterprises wish to increase the number of employees), the probability of its realization is not high.
S.Tsukhlo Foreign trade The remaining favorable state of affairs on the world market, as well as the growth of the effective demand of both the population and domestic enterprises made positive impact on the development of the foreign economic activity during the whole 2005. In November 2005 the major indicators of the Rrussian foreign trade again reached maximum values over the whole period of observations.
In January 2006 an antidumping probe had been completed concerning some types of steel pipes from the Ukraine, imported into the customs territory of the RF. According to the results of the probe, special antidumping duties for the Ukrainian steel pipes had been introduced for 5 years.
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