The share of gross savings in the past seven years fluctuated within the interval of 31.1% - 38.7% of GDP, as compared to 24.0% in the pre-crisis year 1997. In 2005, influenced by the national economy’s growing exports income, on the one hand, and the growing expensed of households, on the other, gross national savings amounted to 35.0% of GDP against 34.1% in 2004 and 31.6% in 2003. Despite the growing amounts of gross national savings, this had no influence on the investment sphere.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 --Gross domestic product end-product consumption by households investments in fixed assets -Figure. Changes in the dynamics of GDP, by components of end-product demand in 1999 - 2005, as a percentage of the same quarter of previous year The positive dynamics of end-product consumption represented one of the principal factors influencing the domestic market’s development in 2000 - 2005. When the situation on the domestic market changed, the population’s real incomes, real wages and real size of allocated pensions began to demonstrate stable growth. The growth in end-product consumption was taking place against the background of a rather stable ratio of the consumption by households and the size of social transfers being received from state institutions and non-commercial organizations. In 2005 the share of expenditures on end-product consumption within the consumption structure of GDP, as compared to the previous year, amounted to 65.0%.
The structural shifts on the domestic market have been determined by an intensive expansion of end-product consumption by households. The dynamic growth of consumer demand is being sustained by the population’s increasing incomes. In 2005 the population’s incomes went up by 8.8% against 9.9% in 2004, real wages – by 9.7%, and real size of allocated pensions - by 9.3%. Alongside the growth in the population’s incomes, poverty level was going down at a stable rate. The share of persons with money incomes below the subsistence level in 2005 was reduced to 21.9 million, or to 15.8% of the total population, against 24.9 million (17.3%) in 2004 and 34.6 million (24.2%) in 2002.
Stable growth of the population’s incomes has been one of the characteristic features of the rehabilitative growth of Russia’s economy. The sustained dynamics of the domestic market was based on Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q growing levels of real wages and the population’s incomes, and was accompanied by redistribution of incomes from enterprises to the population. In 2005 the share of employed workers’ remuneration of labor in GDP amounted to approximately 44.3% and was remaining at levels higher than those registered in 1999 - 2001.
Table GDP composition by incomes in 1999 - 2004, as percentage of total 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* Gross domestic product 100 100 100 100 100 100 Including employed workers’ remuneration of labor (including hidden remuneration) 40.1 40.2 43.0 46.7 46.9 45.7 44.net taxes on production and imports 15.7 17.1 15.7 17.0 16.0 16.9 18.national economy’s gross profit and gross mixed incomes 44.2 42.7 41.3 36.3 37.1 37.4 37.*) preliminary data Source: Rosstat One of the main causes of the decline in the competitive capacities of Russian commodities has been low efficiency of application of production factors. Negative influence on the qualitative indices of economic growth dynamics has been produced by the increasing gap between the rate of labor productivity and wages, in favor of the latter. During the period of 2000 - 2005, real charged wages went up by 2.25 times, while labor productivity increased by only 1.42 times. This regime of remuneration of labor was accompanied by a reduction in the national economy’s gross profit within GDP structure from 42.7% in 2000 to 37.6% in 2005.
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ----real w ages labor productivity Figure. Dynamics of labor productivity and real charged wages in 1999 - 2005, as a percentage of the same quarter of a previous year The Russian economy’s average profitability, judging by an analysis of the changing shares of gross profit and entrepreneurial incomes in GDP, displays an upward trend. The total balance of financial results achieved by the organizations in the main branches of the economy in January - November 2005 went up by 1.35 times, as compared to the same period of the previous year.
An analysis of profit formation by the economy’s sectors has shown that the total balance of financial results was in approximately equal shares composed of commodities production and services production. However, inside the sectors certain industries can be distinguished which have a dominant effect on the process of profit formation and utilization in the national economy.
Industry has sustained its leading role also in the growth rate of the results of financial activity, as well as in the sectoral structure of income formation by types of economic activity. The accelerated growth of industry’s financial result was induced by increasing incomes of the extracting industries.
The total balance of financial results in the extraction of fuel and energy resources in January - November 2005 grew by 1.83 times, as compared to the same period of the year 2004. In the processing industries, in face of growing production costs resulting from increased labor cost, domestic prices of energy carriers and transport tariffs, the developing situation was less favorable. The total balance of financial results in the processing industries increased by 1.15 times. Depending on the size and dynamics of the incomes of the processing industries, the character of the utilization by enterprises of their proper resources was categorized as investments, production and social expenditures. A comparison of the dynamics and structure of GDP consumption showed that in 2005, alongside the accelerating rate of domestic demand, as compared to the dynamics of the external market’s development, a limited number of export-oriented sectors of the extracting industry, pretreatment of raw materials, and the infrastructure sectors continued to enjoy government support. The effect of the growth of incomes in the exports sector was felt most strongly in the related infrastructure sectors – transport, communications, and trade, and was practically non-existent in the sectors predominantly oriented to the domestic market.
O. Izriadnova Oil and Gas Sector In 2005, the world oil prices were extremely high, which led to drastic rise in the export earnings and revenues to the state budget and the Stabilization Fund. As well, the growth rates of oil production suffered drastic downfall. The situation on the world oil market allows to count on maintenance, in the short term, of the high level of world oil prices, favorable external conditions for the formation of the revenue side of the state budget, replenishment of the Stabilization Fund and the development of the oil and gas sector.
In 2005, the dominant influence on the situation in the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy was exerted by price situation on the world oil market. The world oil prices were in 2005 at a high level, that exceeded USD 50 a barrel. In the second half of 2005, the oil prices reached their historic maximum in nominal terms. The price of oil Brent in 2005 by 87,5% exceeded the average level of previous five years. The main reasons for such a situation were high growth rates of the world economy, in particular, the economy of the U.S. and China, and the low level of idle production facilities for production of oil, which did not allow to quickly raise the production for satisfying the growing demand for oil. OPEC actually refused to support the world oil prices within the range of the earlier set (by this organization) target price band USD 22-28 a barrel and conducted the policy of moderate increase of oil production within the disposable production capacities. It was announced at March (2005) OPEC conference on increase of oil production by the OPEC member countries by 500 thou.
barrels per day, since July 1, 2005, the amount of the quota of OPEC member countries had been increased by another 500 thou. barrels per day, to 28.0 mln barrels per day. However, such measures did not have a clear effect on the dynamics of oil prices. It had been announced at the September (2005) conference of OPEC by its member countries that they intended to employ the idle capacities on oil production in the amount of 2 mln barrels a day, if the necessity arises within three months, starting since October 1, 2005. In practice, however, only Saudi Arabia had any considerable idle production facilities, while the limited demand for heavy sulfur crude oil to a certain extent hampered an increase of oil production by OPEC countries.
Considerable influence on the dynamics of oil production beyond OPEC countries was exerted by decline in the oil production growth rates in Russia and drop in the production in the Gulf of Mexico, as a result of the passed hurricanes. An intensity retained in the sectors of processing and cargo carriage, that was determined by limitation of the available capacities, which supported the high cost of transportation and oil processing. Geopolitical risks, such as instability in Iraq and possible problems in Nigeria and Venezuela, kept high the level of uncertainty on the world oil market.
As a result, in 2005 Brent crude reached on average USD 54.4 a barrel, while Russian Urals – USD 50.5. The average price of OPEC oil basket throughout the whole year considerably exceeded the targeted pricing marginal rate, set by the organization, and in 2005, amounted on average USD 50.6 a barrel. The average price of Russian oil Urals on the world (European) market was in 2005 by 46,5% higher than the level of previous year (Table 1).
Table World Oil Prices in 2000-2005, $/barrel 2000 2001 2002 2003 Brent oil price, Great 28.50 24.44 25.02 28.83 38.Britain Urals oil price, Russia 26.63 22.97 23.73 27.04 34.Price of OPEC oil bas- 27.60 23.12 24.34 28.13 36.ket Table 1 Cont’d 2005 2005 2005 2005 I qu. II qu. III qu. IV qu.
Brent oil price, Great 47.50 51.59 61.54 56.90 54.Britain Urals oil price, Russia 43.10 48.44 57.34 53.68 50.Price of OPEC oil bas- 43.66 49.54 56.28 52.86 50.ket Source: OECD International Energy Agency, OPEC.
The development of the oil and gas sector of the economy of Russia was characterized in 2005 by maintenance of a trend towards the growth of production of oil, oil products and natural gas, that existed in 2000-2004. In 2005, the oil production, including gas condensate, reached 470 mln tons. In parallel with this, the oil production growth rates fell dramatically. In 2005, as compared to the prior year, the volume of oil production, including gas condensate, made only 2,2%, while in 2002-2004 the increment of oil production reached 8,9-11% per year. In consideration of the dynamics of oil production in Russia during the longer period of time one may see that the level of oil production in 2005 was by 17,5% lower than the pre-crisis maximum achieved in 1987, when oil production amounted 569.mln tons, and by 56% higher than the minimal level of 1996, when the production fell up to 301.3 mln tons. The volume of primary oil processing in 2005 increased by 6,2%, while the refining intensity rate was 71,5% (in 2004 - 71,4%). One could see continuation of growth of natural gas production, which started in 2002 and amounted 0,5% in 2005 (Table 2).
Table Production of Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas in 2000-2005, in % to the Respective Period of the Prior Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Oil, including gas conden- 106,0 107,7 109,0 111,0 108,9 102,sate Primary oil refining 102,7 103,2 103,3 102,7 102,6 106,Automobile fuel 103,6 100,6 104,9 101,2 103,8 104,Diesel fuel 104,9 102,0 104,7 102,0 102,7 108,Fuel oil 98,3 104,2 107,1 100,3 97,8 105,Natural gas, billion cub. m. 98,5 99,2 101,9 103,4 101,6 100,Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
In 2005, the greatest volumes of oil were produced by oil companies LUKOIL, TNK-BP, Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz. The basic part of Rosneft production was provided by Yuganskneftegaz, joined to this company in late 2004. The oil production by Yukos continued to decline. According to the data of January-September 2005, its share on the Russian oil market fell up to 5,2%. In parallel with this, the share of Gazprom sharply increased in 2005, as a result of acquiring by the latter of Sibneft oil company. Its proportional weight in the All-Russia oil production raised since 2,6% in 2004 to 9,8% in 2005. As a consequence, the share of the state-owned companies (Rosneft and Gazprom, including Sibneft) increased in 2005 on the Russian oil market up to 25,5% (Table 3). In the gas production Gazprom traditionally took the leading positions, which share in the All-Russia production made in January-September 2005 85,4%.
TableThe Structure of Oil and Gas Production in 2005* (9 months) Oil Production, Share in Total Gas Production, Share in Total mln tons Production, billion cubic Production, % meters % Russia, in all 349,5 100,0 468,9 100,LUKOIL 65,9 18,9 4,1 0,TNK-BP Holding 55,8 16,0 6,3 1, including:
The 2005 saw considerable growth of prices for oil and oil products on the domestic market. The producers’ prices for oil, automobile fuel, diesel fuel and fuel oil reached in 2005 maximum values over the whole period of reforms. In October 2005, the average domestic price of oil (producers’ price) in US dollars reached USD 201 per ton, while an average price for automobile fuel – USD 386.6 per ton, which is the maximum level of oil and automobile fuel prices over the whole period of reforms. The prices for gas in 2005 noticeably exceeded the level existed prior to the devaluation and reached in October USD 13.1 for 1 thou. cub. m (Table 4).
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