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Change in GDP dynami cs, f i nal household consumpt ion, and invest m ent in f ixed asset s i n 1999 t hr ough 2002 ( in % of t he r espect i ve per iod of t he pr ecedi ng year ) --Gr oss Dom estic Pr oduct Expenditur es f or final household consum ption In v e s tm e n t in fixe d a s s e ts On the whole, the analysis of the results of the affected the overall dynamics of industrial output in first quarter of 2002 demonstrates that the economy the 1st quarter of 2002. This year, consumer sectors gradually overcomes the negative trends registered demonstrated the highest rates of development. In over the fourth quarter of 2001. In early 2002, January through March of 2002, the production producers retained rather stable position even in index across industries of the consumer complex spite of the fact that there were registered critical made 106 % as compared with the respective period parameters of change in key factors of economic of 2001 and accounted for almost 30 % of growth in growth. The accumulated potential for growth the volume of industrial output.

resulted in a successful adaptation to the change in The rate of output growth in export-oriented the external economic situation, real Ruble industries made 103.8 % in comparison with the exchange rate dynamics, labor costs, and first quarter of 2001. Among industries belonging expenditures relating to the payment for products to this complex, fuel industry and non-ferrous and services of natural monopolies. metallurgy developed at outpacing rates (105.8 % The revival of industrial output was the decisive and 108.7 % respectively).

factor behind the growth in GDP. In February Taking into account the traditional seasonal through March of 2002, the economy overcome the decline in business activity in construction, the rate downward trend of industrial output registered in of increase in the investment complex made 101.the 4th quarter of 2001 and January of 2002. The %. In February through March of this year, there developments in the 1st quarter of 2002 resulted in was registered an intensive growth in output of a 2.6 % increase in industrial output as compared mechanical engineering and industry of with the respective period of the preceding year. construction materials, which fully corresponded The persistence of outpacing growth rates in with the recovery of positive dynamics of increase consumer and export-oriented industries positively in investment in fixed assets. While in March of 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 1/1\1\1\2002 investment in fixed assets grew by 13.6 % in construction materials contracting as a result of comparison to the preceding months, the increase in declining business activity in the investment the output of mechanical engineering and complex, and, on the other hand, the forced construction materials industry made 13.1 % and decrease in exports caused by respective anti4.9 % respectively. dumping actions taken by a number of foreign In the course of analysis of output dynamics countries.

registered in March of this year, there shall be The persisting downfall in output of medical emphasized such positive developments as the industry (91.4 %) caused primarily by low recovery of growth in chemistry and petro- competitiveness of domestic chemical and chemistry (105.4 %), lumber, woodworking, and pharmaceutical products was among the factors pulp and paper industry (102.5 %) and in light checking the growth..

industry (100.1 %). In March of this year, a decline The cumulative effect of the trends and factors in production was observed only in ferrous noted above accounted for more moderate rates of metallurgy, where the dynamics of production were economic development in 2002 as compared with affected, on the one hand, by domestic demand for the figures registered over the preceding years.

Changes in out put dynam ics acr oss industr ies in the f ir st quar t er of 2001 and 2002, in % of the r espective per iod of the pr eceding year ---2001 Changes in the business situation on the January through February of 2002. In spite of the domestic market occurring in January through fact that more than half of the total amount of February affected both the dynamics of profit of the balanced profit was earned by industrial economy, and the nature of payments for works and organizations, its specific weight decreased by 0.services. The results of the first two months of 2002 p. p. in comparison with the period from January to demonstrate that the trend towards a decline in the February of 2001. There is also observed a decline indicators of financial operations of enterprises in in the share of profits of construction and other the real sector of the economy observed since the sectors of the economy, while the profits in middle of the preceding year still persists. In transport grew by 2.9 p. p. The decrease in the January through February of 2002, the balanced balanced financial result was accompanied by a 1.financial result of large and medium sized p. p. growth in the specific weight of loss-making organizations across all sectors of the economy enterprises as compared with the period from made Rb. 162.8 bln., or 79.2 % of the level January to February of 2001.

registered over the respective period of the It shall be mentioned that the deteriorating preceding year. financial standing of enterprises in the real sector of A decrease in the balanced profits was observed the economy has a negative impact on investment across all sectors of the economy with the activity, and this factor shall be taken into account exception of transportation. As a result of in the course of evaluation of prospects of deteriorating financial results of operation of economic growth.

O. Izryadnova industrial and construction enterprises the sectoral structure of the total balanced profit changed in Fuel Forestry Chemistry Industry Light industry Food industry Power engineering Ferrous metallurgy Non-ferrous metallurgy Mechanical engineering Construction materials IET Business Survey: Industry In April, no turning point in the development of Russias industry. The proportion of enterprises negative trends formed yet in the late 2001 was responses demonstrates that cash sales have been registered. Effective demand still declines, while declining for the fifth month running. The intensity the stocks of finished goods increased, what of the decline gradually subsides, however it is the accounts for the fact that enterprises are again ready fact that no such prolonged and deep downfall in to resort to non-cash transactions. All these the Russias industry has been observed since the developments stopped the boost of the Russias early 1999. In the last month, an increase in cash industry. Plans and estimates for a few next months demand was registered only in chemistry, petrodo not envisage a change in the situation. It appears chemistry, mechanical engineering, and industry of that enterprises became sure of the negative construction materials. Sales declined across other development of the situation: for the first time since sectors. Especially intensive decrease in sales was the beginning of the post-default growth they plan observed in power engineering (seasonality!), to reduce the number of jobs. metallurgy, and light industry. The continuing April failed to bring about the long expected decline in sales determined the change in other growth in effective demand for the products of the indicators of the Russias industry.

EFFECTIVE AND BARTER DEMAND TRENDS % (BALANCE=UP-DOWN) EFFECTIVE: REPORTED, EXPECTED ---BARTER: REPORTED, EXPECTED -7/98 1/99 7/99 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/According to enterprises estimates, in the 1st Low demand again was most frequently reported quarter of 2002 their sales markets experienced a limit to production. In April of 2002, it hindered to decline in sales of domestic products. The intensity increase output to the same number of enterprises of decline persisted at the level observed in the 4th as in April through July of 1998. Enterprises still quarter of 2001. Growing volumes of sales of less frequently report two other pre-default domestic products were registered only on the problems of 1998 (payment arrears and shortage of markets relating to chemistry, petro-chemistry, working capital). The fact that the constraining construction industry, and food industry. The effect of shortage of raw materials and skilled labor volumes of sales of domestic products declined are also an evidence that negative trends develop in across other industries, while the overall volumes the Russias industry. The increasing share of of import across all markets of industrial products enterprises evaluating their capacities as redundant grew. This process was especially intensive in in relation to expected demand is yet another chemistry, petro-chemistry, ferrous metallurgy, and confirmation of this argument. In April such furniture sector. estimates made 36 % and 21 % respectively. These are the worst values of indicators since end-1999.

% LIMITS TO PRODUCTION SHORTAGE OF WORKING CAPITAL INSUFFICIENT DEMAND 45 NON PAYMENTS SHORTAGE OF RAW MATERIALS SHORTAGE OF LABOUR COMPETITIVE IMPORT 1/93 1/94 1/95 1/96 1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/In order to avoid the suspension of production of finished goods and the growing number of Russias enterprises begin more frequently resort to reports estimating their volumes as excessive.

non-cash realization of their products. In April, Therefore, even in spite of the fact that enterprises there were registered the most moderate rates of checked their production and resorted to non-cash decrease in barter transactions since 1999, while the forms of realization of their products failed to rates of decline in the volumes of promissory-note resolve the problem of excessive stocks of finished and off-set deals were lowest since 2000 (the first goods. The largest excessive stocks are being year the monitoring of these types of demand was registered in chemistry, petro-chemistry, light, and started). No increase in barter has been registered food industries.

at the sectoral level yet, however, the volumes of The financial and economic standing of promissory-note and off-set transactions grew in enterprises started to deteriorate as a result of these chemistry, petro-chemistry, and light industry. At developments. The share of reporting on a decrease the same time, enterprises consider the scale of in real profits has increased from 40 % to 45 % barter, promissory-note, and off-set deals as over the last three months, while the share of insufficient. In April, there was registered the responses stating an increase in real profits declined highest rate of dissatisfaction in relation to the from 12 to 9. The most intensive decrease in volumes of such transactions since the start of the profits was registered in power engineering, light monitoring of these indicators. The most massive industry and forestry complex. The integral shortage of non-cash transactions was registered appraisals of enterprises standing deteriorated by in the forestry complex and light industry. points over the last quarter. At the moment, only The intensity of growth in output volumes % of enterprises estimate their standing as good. practically did not change in April. The absence of This is the smallest number of such estimates growth in sales, a fast recovery of growth in output registered since the early 1999.

in February through March, and the low share of In April, forecasts of changes in effective optimistic estimates in relation to demand trends in demand deteriorated sharply deteriorated (by a few next months were factors braking the boost points) and were among the most modest since the of production in the Russias industry. In April, start of the post-default growth in production.

accelerating rates of growth in production were Declining optimism of forecasts was registered registered only in chemistry, petro-chemistry, and across all industries, while light industry and mechanical engineering. Other industries reported forestry complex demonstrated negative balances of lower rates of growth, while in the forestry complex forecasts. These industries already expect a and light industry surveys even registered a decline decrease in cash sales in absolute terms. Estimates in output in absolute terms. of change in non-cash forms of demand did not The dynamics of the output volumes and change in April. Enterprises foresee a minimal estimates of the stocks of finished goods have also decline in the volumes of such transactions in the responded to sales problems of enterprises. In next few months.

April, there was registered an increase in the stocks After a sharp downfall in March, estimates of At the same time, the April estimates of changes changes in output remain at the practically same in employment altered dramatically. For the first level (a lowest registered over the last three years). time since April of 1999 (the start of the postHowever, the balance of these estimates is still default growth in effective demand and production) positive, i.e. the industry on the whole and the they become negative. I.e. at the moment the majority of branches plan to increase output. In the majority of enterprises expect the reduction of jobs immediate future, a decline in absolute terms in absolute terms. Such forecasts prevailed across (following demand) is probable only in forestry all industries except the industry of construction complex and light industry. materials (due to the seasonal factors).

S. Tsoukhlo Foreign Trade According to the Bank of Russia, in February of In February of 2002, after the traditional January 2002, the total amount of Russias foreign trade dip, imports regained the upward trend that became decreased by 5.9 per cent in comparison with the apparent over the last year. In February, imports figures registered over the respective period of grew by 20.5 % in comparison with the figures 2001 and made USD 11.1 bln. registered in this January and made USD 4.17 bln.

Exports made USD 6.85 bln. as compared with Imports grew by 11. 2 % as compared with the USD 6.77 bln. in this January and USD 8.23 bln. in level observed in February of the last year.

February of the last year. Although the rates of In February, the balance of trade made USD 2.decline in export decelerated, they remain at a bln. as compared with USD 3.31 bln. registered in rather high level. Exports fell by 16.7 % in January of this year and USD 4.48 bln. last comparison with February of the last year. February.

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