240% Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite 220% The RTS Index 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% Corporate news. prices). The dividends for 2001 are at 35% higher those The Board of “Gazprom” recommended to pay for 2000.
dividends for 2001 at an amount of 0.5 rouble per The Board of Directors of “Lenenergo” share, i.e. below the previously announced level – 0.6 recommended the dividends for 2001 at the level of rouble pr share. The recommended dividends stand at 0.3324 rouble per common share and 0.7653 rouble per 66% higher than those in 2000 (0.3 roubel per share). preferred share. The dividend yield on common and The dividends are to be approved by the Board of preferred stocks amounts to 2% and 9%, respectively Directors and consequently subject to approval by the (under current stock prices).
annual shareholder meeting on June 28 (the The “LUKoil” officials stated that in 2001 the shareholders register is closed on May 13). It is worth company (including subsidiaries). produced 78 million noting that the company increases annually the volume tons of oil In 2002 the company plans to produce of funds allocated to pay dividends r. million tons of oil, i.e. at 2.6% higher than the latter According to Sibneft’s recent press-release, the output. In 2002 it plans to increase gas extraction by company plans to increase sales of oil products in 10% - up to 4.4 billion cubic meters. The company will Russia by more than 18% (from 2.3 million tons in invest more than 6 billion roubles in its retail network.
2001 to 2.8 million tons in 2002), the company’s news The Board of Directors of “YUKOS” proposed to release says. In 2002 the total investments should the shareholder meeting to set the dividends for amount to more than one billion roubles, including nearly twice those for 2000. The proposed dividends more than 850 million roubles to be spent on amount to 6.82 roubles per common share. YUKOS’s purchasing and building new gas stations. press service said dividends would be paid on August The Board of Directors of “Mosenergo” decided to 31 at the latest. So, the company plans 15.25 billion pay dividends for 2001 of to 1.8 kopecks per share (the roubles to be paid as dividends for 2001. The sum dividend yield is about 2.5% under current stock includes 5.9 billion roubles of intermediate dividends already paid in the fourth quarter of last year.
6.TABLE 1.DYNAMICS OF THE FOREIGN STOCK INDEXES as of April 22, 2002 value change for last change since beginning of month (%) the year (%) RTS (Russia) 379.77 8.27% 46.04% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 10136.43 -2.57% -0.01% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1758.68 -4.70% -11.50% S&P 500 (USA) 1107.83 -3.45% -4.58% FTSE 100 (UK) 5221.50 -0.95% -0.40% DAX-30 (Germany) 5205.48 -3.55% 0.88% CAC-40 (France) 4559.46 -2.74% -1.41% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 6685.30 0.45% 4.17% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 11721.64 3.43% 11.18% Bovespa (Brazil) 13224.00 -0.23% -2.61% IPC (Mexico) 7435.13 1.00% 14.97% IPSA (Chile) 96.71 -1.67% -11.36% Straits Times (Singapore) 1727.66 -4.19% 6.25% Seoul Composite(Korea) 920.89 3.16% 32.75% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 11759.72 -0.42% -14.68% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index 363.582 3.46% 15.34% The market for inter-bank credits. Russia also are substantially lower. During last two In March and April 2002 the interest rates in the months the funds amounted to from 60 to 80 billion inter-bank credit market fluctuated within the range roubles, while in 2001 their average level reached of 10% to 20% annualised (see Fig. 7). The present 90 billion roubles. So, the banking system actually cost of borrowing in the market is higher than has no “excessive” liquidity, which secured during the most of 2001 (5–10% annualised). But it negative real interest rates on inter-bank rouble is worth noting the balances on correspondent credits in 2001.
accounts of commercial banks in the Bank of FIGURE 7.
'Overnight' Ruble Interbank Interest Rates between February to April, MIBID MIBOR MIACR Foreign exchange market. roubles/$. At the same time the Bank of Russia As we mentioned above section Monetary policy, mostly carried out rouble interventions aimed at in April 2002 the supply of foreign exchange to the control over nominal appreciation of rouble.
market notably exceeded the demand for hard In total, in April 2002, the official dollar currency, and devaluation of rouble vs. US dollar exchange rate grew from 31.1192 roubles/$ to stopped. In fact, the whole month the exchange rate 31.1977 roubles/$ (as of April 28), i.e. by 0.25% fluctuated between 31.15 roubles/$ to 31.20 (3.04% annualised, see Fig. 8). The ‘today’ dollar % annualized 01.02.06.02.11.02.14.02.19.02.22.02.28.02.05.03.11.03.13.03.18.03.21.03.26.03.29.03.03.04.08.04.11.04.16.04.19.04.exchange rate in the SELT increased from 31.1415 roubles/$ (as of April 22), i.e. by -0.1%. According roubles/$ to 31.1602 roubles/$ (as of April 22), i.e. to preliminary estimates, in April the trading by 0.06%. The ‘tomorrow’ dollar exchange rate volumes by dollar amounted to 125–130 billion went down from 31.1995 roubles/$ to 31.1686 roubles.
Dynamics of the Rouble / Dollar Exchange Rates in 31,31,31,31,31,31,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,The official dollar exchange rate 30,The average-weighted 'today' dollar exchange rate 30,30,The average-weighted 'tomorrow' dollar exchange rate 30,30,30,30,30,30,In April 2002 the EUR/USD exchange rate grew unemployment and vacancies) raises certain doubts slightly and returned to the level of January 2002 about the end of the US recession. At the same (see Fig. 9). The main reasons for the strengthening time, intensification of the political uncertainty in of the European currency were: the confusing data the Middle East and therise in oil prices create on the state of the US economy between the fourth preconditions of a new devaluation of euro during quarter of 2001 through the first quarter of 2002;. the upcoming months.
revision of some indicators (n particular, data on FIGURE 9.
Dynamics of the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate in the International Markets 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, roubles/US dollar 01.01.09.01.12.01.17.01.22.01.25.01.30.01.02.02.07.02.12.02.15.02.20.02.23.02.01.03.06.03.12.03.15.03.20.03.23.03.28.03.02.04.05.04.10.04.13.04.18.04.23.04.26.04.USD/EURO 01.07.08.07.15.07.22.07.29.07.05.08.12.08.19.08.26.08.02.09.09.09.16.09.23.09.30.09.07.10.14.10.22.214.171.124.04.11.11.11.126.96.36.199.02.12.09.12.188.8.131.52.30.12.06.01.13.01.20.01.27.01.03.02.10.02.17.02.24.02.03.03.10.03.17.03.24.03.31.03.07.04.14.04.21.04.In April, the rouble/euro official exchange rate month. According to preliminary estimates, in April fell from 27.1515 roubles/euro to 28.1278 2002, the total trading volume on euro continued to roubles/euro (as of April 28), i.e. by 3.60% over the grow and made up to 4 billion roubles.
Dynamics of EURO Official Excnange Rate in the second half of 2001 and 28,28,27,27,26,26,25,25,24,24,TABLE 2. INDICATORS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS.
December January February March April* inflation rate (monthly) 1.6% 3.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% annualised inflation rate by the month’s 20.98% 44.25% 15.39% 14.03% 16.8% tendency the RCB refinancing rate 25% 25% 25% 25% 23% annualised yield to maturity on OFZ issues 15.84% 14.08% 13.84% 15.80% 16.8% volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ 10.20 4.51 6.11 4.78 10.market a month (billion roubles) yield to maturity on Minfin bonds by the end of the month (% a year):
4th tranche 10.20% 7.22% 5.97% 6.86% 6% 5th tranche 13.36% 11.03% 9.35% 10.13% 9.8% 6th tranche 11.86% 10.57% 8.96% 9.65% 8.8% 7th tranche 12.54% 11.62% 9.16% 10.23% 10.1% 8th tranche 11.93% 10.41% 8.75% 9.63% 8.8% INSTAR – MIACR rate (annual %) on interbank loans by the end of the month:
overnight 24.66% 29.09% 39.64% 17.79% 12% 1 week 23.97% 8.24% 14.55% 22.84% 14% official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar by 30.14 30.6850 30.9404 31.1192 31.the end of the month official exchange rate of ruble per Euro by the end 26.617 26.5456 26.7120 27.1515 28.of the month average annualized exchange rate of ruble per US 0.70% 1.81% 0.83% 0.58% 0.25% dollar growth average annualized exchange rate of ruble per 0.37% -0.27% 0.63% 1.65% 3.6% euro growth volume of trading at the stock market in the RTS 277.0 419.7 247.1 426.3 for the month (millions of USD) the value of the RTS Index by the end of the 260.05 287.53 290.75 350.75 month growth in the RTS Index (% a month) 14.82% 10.57% 1.12% 20.64% 12.5% * Estimates S. Drobyshevsky, D. Skripkin rubles/euro 03.07.14.07.27.07.09.08.22.08.04.09.15.09.28.09.184.108.40.206.06.11.20.11.01.12.15.12.28.12.16.01.29.01.09.02.22.02.08.03.22.03.04.04.17.04.28.04.Investment in the Real Sector In the first quarter of 2002 the rankings of of the year’s target, while in March the financing Russia’s investment attractiveness issued by made Rb. 2671.1 mil.
international agencies underwent practically no The financing of the Federal Targeted changes. International ranking agency Standard & Investment Program accounted for financing in Poor’s increased the sovereign credit ranking of amount of Rb. 4667.2 mil. in January through Russia from “stable” to “positive,” what should March of 2002, or 10.5 % of the year’s target, facilitate the further growth of long term (B+) and including the March financing amounting to Rb.
short term (B) Russia’s rankings. 2635.3 mil., of which Rb. 4139.1 mil. were related On February 22, 2002, Standard & Poor’s to the item “Industry, power engineering and granted to the Russian Federation the credit ranking construction” and Rb. 123.9 mil. to the item of borrower “ruAA+” according to the new “Financial aid to budgets of other levels.” international scale, what was a result of Russia’s The deteriorating financial standing of high capacity to timely and properly carry out its enterprises has negatively affected the dynamics of debt obligations and the credit standing of the investment. There was observed a decline in the country. share of profits in the sources of financing, while In the first quarter of 2002, the amount of the high costs of commercial credit and investment in fixed assets from all sources of complicated borrowing procedures applicable to financing made Rb. 254.4 bln., or 101.2 % of the investment projects account for the fact that the role figures registered over the respective period in the played by banking capital in the financing of preceding year. The analysis of monthly dynamics investment programs remains negligible. Besides, of growth rates relating to the investment in fixed this year the investment activity was affected by the assets demonstrates that the growth was generated abolition of profit tax preferences primarily related by a high rate of increase in investment activity in to the areas of investment activities. These March of 2002. The amount of investment in fixed developments resulted in a decrease in the general assets increased by 13.6 % as compared with the base of investment resources as concerns level observed in this February. accumulated profits. The intensity of investment The major factors constraining investment activity was also affected by the decline in the activity was a slowdown in the rates of economic proceeds of export–oriented industries, which growth, deteriorating financial standing of generate almost of the total investment demand industrial enterprises and small amounts of state in the Russia’s economy.
investment in the beginning of the year. As a results of the developments taking place in The federal budget for 2002 targeted Rb. 50.22 the first quarter of 2002, the share of GROSS bln. for financing state capital investment, ACCUMULATION IN FIXED ASSETS in GDP including: unpaid obligations of preceding years – made 11.4 % as compared to 12.9 % registered in Rb. 1.2 bln., financing of construction and objects the respective period of the preceding year. The of the Federal Targeted Investment Program – Rb. decline in the investment activity took place at the 44.56 bln. In January through March of 2002, the background of falling share of gross national state capital investment were financed in the saving, which decreased by 6.4 p. p. in comparison amount of Rb. 4703.0 mil., what accounts for 9.4 % with the respective period of 2001.
O. Izryadnova The Real Sector: Factors and Trends According to preliminary estimates, the growth in final demand observed in February through in gross domestic product made 3.3 % in the first March decisively affected the dynamics of quarter of 2002. The economic growth was macroeconomic indicators. As a result of supported by the persistent positive dynamics of developments in the first quarter of 2002, production across practically all sectors of the investment in fixed assets increased by 1.2 %, economy. The output of products and services of while the turnover of retail trade grew by 9.1 %, base sectors increased by 3.3 per cent as compared and paid services to households demonstrated a 1.with the period from January to March of 2001. % growth.
After the traditional January downfall in business In the first quarter of 2002, the situation in the activity the recovery of the trend towards a growth foreign trade sector was affected by a gradual increase in prices on the world market of A key factor generating growth in GDP over the hydrocarbon raw materials. The volume of exports first quarter was the increase in final household grew by 3.5 % in comparison with the figures consumption by 6.9 % as compared with the registered in the first quarter of 2001, however, the respective period of the preceding year. The growth persistent trend to the outpacing increase in imports in disposable household incomes made 108.7 % the net exports made 98.3 % of the level observed over this period. In January through March of over the respective period of the preceding year. the size of the population with cash incomes below The outpacing rates of growth in domestic demand the subsistence minimum declined from 5.2 mil. in as compared to external demand is a major factor comparison to the respective period of the behind the structural shifts in production. preceding year.
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